A prosecutor examines fragments of Russian missiles that were collected to investigate Russia’s military crimes in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 18, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Ukrainian forces facing a lack of munitions and manpower are digging in to resist Russian attack, mirroring the invaders’ strategy and showing Kyiv expects a drawn-out war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that Kyiv’s troops were in an “ongoing process” of building around 2,000 kilometre of defensive lines.

Britain’s Defence Ministry said that the works included “anti-tank dragon’s teeth and ditches, infantry trenches, minefields and fortified defensive positions” in a post on X.

“The establishment of major defensive positions is indicative of the attritional character of the conflict… any attempt to conduct breaching operations will likely be accompanied with high losses,” the ministry added.

Built in 2023, Russia’s so-called “Surovikin Line” on occupied Ukrainian soil stalled Kyiv’s counteroffensive with its three layered defence in depth.

Such barriers are designed both to wear down enemy forces and prevent them holding ground even if they succeed in breaking through.

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Ukraine’s version may be less elaborate and deep, but is needed to compensate for its ammunition shortage.

“Already, Ukrainian officials say that time is the key factor preventing them from building something resembling the… Surovikin line,” said Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).

“Ammunition scarcity and diminishing morale have placed Ukraine squarely on the defensive,” he added.

Minimal gains

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the second half of 2023, planned with backing from allies including the U.S., left Kyiv with minimal territorial gains and heavy losses. As the war has dragged on, defenders’ advantage over attackers has become starker than in many previous conflicts.

Mr. Zelenskyy’s lines “are designed to maximise the cost of casualties and fatalities for the Russians,” said Seth Jones, vice president of U.S.-based think-tank CSIS.

But Alexander Khramchikhin, a Russian military expert, said it was “proof that Ukraine has realised its offensive failed,”.

“Their success will depend on their quality” and on how much the construction effort is hobbled by Ukraine’s still-endemic corruption, he added.

“Do they have the manpower to build and defend them?” asked Vasily Kashin, of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.

“Russia’s army has already broken through stronger Ukrainian fortifications at Avdiivka,” he added, referring to the frontline town in eastern region of Donetsk that fell to the Russians in mid-February.

Kyiv may be bowing to the present realities of the conflict, but its objective remains liberating its territory in the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia took in 2014.

Ukrainian leaders hope that as the war wears on, Western sanctions will hobble Russia’s ability to sustain the effort.

Meanwhile in Moscow, the hope is that Western military and financial aid to Ukraine will dry up.

Both sides’ conjectures point to the same strategy for now: holding ground.

An explosion of a drone is seen in the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine on September 10, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Russia attacked Ukraine with 32 drones overnight into Sunday, Kyiv military chiefs said, most of them aimed around the capital.

Air defences shot down 25 of them, they added, without accounting for the other seven.

The aerial assault comes at a time when national leaders are ramping up calls for extra Western support to repel the Russian invasion.

The military’s general staff said “the occupiers attacked Ukraine with 32 kamikaze drones… of which 25 were destroyed by Ukrainian air defence forces”.

“The Russian occupiers directed most of the attack UAVs to the Kyiv region,” they said.

“Drones entered the capital in groups and from different directions,” Sergiy Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, wrote on Telegram.

Debris fell in several districts, damaging an apartment in a multi-storey building, as well as road surfaces and power lines, he added, saying one person was injured.

Russia systematically targeted Ukrainian cities early in the invasion launched last year, but massive strikes have become less frequent as Moscow’s stockpiles dwindle and Ukraine bolsters its air defences.

Last month, Kyiv destroyed more than 20 drones and missiles in what it called the “most powerful strike” on the capital since spring.

Speeches by several senior Ukrainian officials released Saturday drew a picture of a country at war held back by allies who had failed to grasp the scale and urgency of the crisis.

Newly appointed Defence Minister Rustem Umerov called for more military equipment.

“We are grateful for all the support provided… We need more heavy weapons,” Mr. Umerov said in his speech. But he added: “We need them today. We need them now.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the slow delivery of Western weapons was hampering the counteroffensive against Russian positions in the east and south of the country.

Deputy Intelligence Chief Vadym Skibitsky estimated Saturday that Russia has more than 420,000 soldiers in the east and south of Ukraine, including Crimea.

Mr. Skibitsky also said Russia had for a month been actively launching attacks from Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

“Drones deployed in Crimea are used against our ports of Izmail and Reni” used as alternative export hubs, particularly since the expiry of the deal allowing grain exports on the Black Sea.

Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the east and south of the country in June but has come up against fierce resistance from entrenched Russian forces.

Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory were mainly aimed at military targets.

“All (the targets) are enterprises of the military-industrial complex,” said Mr. Budanov. “This is the difference that distinguishes us from Russians.”

Attacks on Russian territory, which were rare at the beginning of the offensive, have intensified in recent months, with Kyiv increasingly claiming responsibility for them.

Russian authorities have reported civilian casualties from some Ukrainian attacks.

Ukrainian leaders also deplored the lack of progress on setting up an international tribunal to try Russia’s leaders, and on the transfer of frozen Russian assets.

“Unfortunately, we are in a kind of deadlock on both,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.

He said the G7 group favoured a hybrid tribunal based on Ukrainian legislation.

‘A lack of will’

But this would not allow for the immunity of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to be stripped – an unacceptable option for Kyiv.

Ukrainian officials are arguing for an international court resembling the post-World War II Nuremberg tribunal.

There has been insufficient progress too, on the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for use in the country’s reconstruction, Mr. Kuleba added.

“After a year and a half, I’m still hearing from Europe and America: we are working on it,” said Mr. Kuleba, who addressed a conference in Kyiv Friday, but whose comments were only released on Saturday.

“There is a lack of will to come to a conclusion. So we have to change that.”

Since Moscow’s invasion in February 2022, Western sanctions have led to the freezing of some 300 billion euros ($320 billion) of Central Bank of Russia foreign exchange reserves around the world.