A prosecutor examines fragments of Russian missiles that were collected to investigate Russia’s military crimes in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 18, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Ukrainian forces facing a lack of munitions and manpower are digging in to resist Russian attack, mirroring the invaders’ strategy and showing Kyiv expects a drawn-out war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that Kyiv’s troops were in an “ongoing process” of building around 2,000 kilometre of defensive lines.

Britain’s Defence Ministry said that the works included “anti-tank dragon’s teeth and ditches, infantry trenches, minefields and fortified defensive positions” in a post on X.

“The establishment of major defensive positions is indicative of the attritional character of the conflict… any attempt to conduct breaching operations will likely be accompanied with high losses,” the ministry added.

Built in 2023, Russia’s so-called “Surovikin Line” on occupied Ukrainian soil stalled Kyiv’s counteroffensive with its three layered defence in depth.

Such barriers are designed both to wear down enemy forces and prevent them holding ground even if they succeed in breaking through.

Also read: Russia systematically tortures Ukraine POWs, U.N. commission says

Ukraine’s version may be less elaborate and deep, but is needed to compensate for its ammunition shortage.

“Already, Ukrainian officials say that time is the key factor preventing them from building something resembling the… Surovikin line,” said Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS).

“Ammunition scarcity and diminishing morale have placed Ukraine squarely on the defensive,” he added.

Minimal gains

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the second half of 2023, planned with backing from allies including the U.S., left Kyiv with minimal territorial gains and heavy losses. As the war has dragged on, defenders’ advantage over attackers has become starker than in many previous conflicts.

Mr. Zelenskyy’s lines “are designed to maximise the cost of casualties and fatalities for the Russians,” said Seth Jones, vice president of U.S.-based think-tank CSIS.

But Alexander Khramchikhin, a Russian military expert, said it was “proof that Ukraine has realised its offensive failed,”.

“Their success will depend on their quality” and on how much the construction effort is hobbled by Ukraine’s still-endemic corruption, he added.

“Do they have the manpower to build and defend them?” asked Vasily Kashin, of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.

“Russia’s army has already broken through stronger Ukrainian fortifications at Avdiivka,” he added, referring to the frontline town in eastern region of Donetsk that fell to the Russians in mid-February.

Kyiv may be bowing to the present realities of the conflict, but its objective remains liberating its territory in the eastern Donbas region and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia took in 2014.

Ukrainian leaders hope that as the war wears on, Western sanctions will hobble Russia’s ability to sustain the effort.

Meanwhile in Moscow, the hope is that Western military and financial aid to Ukraine will dry up.

Both sides’ conjectures point to the same strategy for now: holding ground.

A woman registers to vote in Russia’s presidential election in the city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on far eastern Sakhalin Island on March 17, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Kremlin critics called for massive protests at Russian polling stations on Sunday for the final day of a presidential election that is guaranteed to cement Vladimir Putin’s hardline rule.

The three-day vote has already been marred by a surge in fatal Ukrainian bombardments and a series of incursions into Russian territory by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups.

There have also been acts of protest in the first days of polling, with a spate of arrests of Russians accused of pouring dye into ballot boxes or arson attacks.

Before his death in an Arctic prison last month, opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who galvanised mass anti-Putin rallies, urged Russians to protest on Sunday.

His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, has reiterated his call in the run-up to the election and said protesters should show up in large numbers at the same time to overwhelm polling stations.

She called for protestors to spoil ballots by writing “Navalny” on them, or vote for candidates other than Putin.

Any public dissent in Russia has been harshly punished since the start of Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and there have been repeated warnings from the authorities against election protests.

Russian opposition has called on people to head to the polls at 12 p.m. (0900 GMT), in what they hope will be a legal a show of strength against Putin.

A Moscow resident in his twenties told AFP he would take part in the protest at noon in the capital, “just to see young supportive faces around… feel some support around me, and see the light in this dark tunnel.”

The man, who declined to give his name for security reasons, said he hoped the demonstration would show the authorities “that there are people in this country against the conflict… against the regime.”

‘Difficult period’

The 71-year-old Putin, a former KGB agent, has been in power since the last day of 1999 and is set to extend his grip over the country until at least 2030.

If he completes another Kremlin term, he would have stayed in power longer than any Russian leader since Catherine the Great in the 18th century.

He is running without any real opponents, having barred two candidates who opposed the conflict in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has cast the election as an opportunity for Russians to show they are behind the assault on Ukraine, where voting is also being staged in Russian-held areas.

In a pre-election address on Thursday, Putin said Russia was going through a “difficult period”.

“We need to continue to be united and self-confident,” he said, describing the election as a way for Russians to demonstrate their “patriotic feelings”.

The voting will wrap up in Kaliningrad, Russia’s westernmost time zone, at 1800 GMT and an exit poll is expected to be announced shortly after that.

A concert on Red Square is being staged on Monday to mark 10 years since Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula – an event that is also expected to serve as a victory celebration for Putin.

‘No validity’

Ukraine has repeatedly denounced the elections as illegitimate and a “farce”, and its foreign ministry has urged Western allies not to recognise the result.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, as well as more than 50 member states, have slammed Moscow for holding the vote in parts of Ukraine, with Guterres saying that the “attempted illegal annexation” of those regions has “no validity” under international law.

Ahead of the election, Russian state media have played up recent gains on the front and portrayed the conflict as a fight for survival against attacks from the West.

Moscow has sought to press its advantage on the front line as divisions over Western military support for Ukraine have led to ammunition shortages, although Kyiv says it has managed to stop the Russian advance for now.

In Ukraine, a Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port city of Odesa on Friday killed 21 people including rescue workers responding to an initial hit — an attack President Volodymyr Zelensky described as “vile”.

On the Russian side, the army has reported repeated attempts by Ukrainian sabotage groups to cross into Russia and the local governor in Belgorod region on Saturday decreed that shopping malls and schools would be shut for two days in the main city Belgorod and the surrounding district following recent strikes.

General view of the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God, where service for Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who died in a prison camp, is expected to be held in Moscow, Russia on February 29, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The funeral of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is scheduled to be held in Moscow on Friday, with mourners braving the risk of arrest to come and pay their respects.

The ceremony will take place two weeks after Navalny died in an Arctic prison, amid pressures denounced by his team who accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of murdering his top critic.

Mr. Putin, who famously never said Navalny’s name in public, has not commented on the death, which sparked outrage among Western leaders and the Russian opposition.

The religious service will be held at the Mother of God Quench My Sorrows church in Maryino at 2 p.m. (1100 GMT) on the outskirts of Moscow.

In line with Orthodox practices, the body of Navalny — who had embraced Christianity — will be displayed in an open casket.

Two hours later, the burial is set to take place at the Borisovo cemetery, a short walk from the banks of the river Moskva.

Details of the funeral and how many mourners will be allowed to attend are still unclear.

Authorities have not commented on how they will handle the event, which could turn into an embarrassing show of support for Navalny.

Around a dozen police officers already patrolled the cemetery on the eve of the burial, which supporters fear may be disturbed by the Kremlin.

Hopes for peaceful ceremony

They have reasons for concern: 400 mourners have been detained at memorials for Navalny since his death, rights organisation OVD-Info said.

The dissident’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, feared the funeral could be disrupted by further arrests.

“I’m not sure yet whether it will be peaceful or whether the police will arrest those who have come to say goodbye to my husband,” Ms. Navalnaya told the European Parliament.

She has directly blamed Putin for his death.

Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has criticised statements by Navalny’s wife and Western leaders blaming the Russian leader for the death as “vulgar”.

Navalny had shot to prominence through his anti-corruption campaigning, exposing what he said was rampant graft at the top of Putin’s administration.

He was arrested in January 2021 when he returned to Russia after being treated in Germany for a poisoning attack.

“Alexei was tortured for three years,” Navalnaya told lawmakers in Brussels.

“He was starved in a tiny stone cell, cut off from the outside world and denied visits, phone calls, and then even letters.”

“And then they killed him. Even after that, they abused his body,” she said.

‘Chance to say goodbye’

His body was held for eight days, which his team believed to be a bid to cover up responsibility for his death.

Navalny’s family and his team have also accused authorities of trying to prevent him from having a dignified public burial due to fears it could turn into a flashpoint for dissent.

The team alleged local investigators had threatened to bury him on the prison grounds if his mother did not agree to a “secret” funeral.

Once the body was released, allies struggled to find a funeral place that would agree to hold the ceremony.

And on Thursday they said hearse drivers were refusing to take the body from the morgue.

“What a disgrace. Now the hearse drivers refuse to take Alexei from the morgue,” said Ivan Zhdanov, an exiled ally who managed Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation.

Navalny’s spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh said funeral directors had received threatening calls from “unknown people” warning them not to transport Navalny’s body anywhere.

And a civil ceremony allowing the general public to pay their respects to the body — common in Russia — has not been allowed.

Navalnaya said the family “did not want a special treatment — just to give people the chance to say goodbye”.

She has vowed to continue his life’s work.

“The most important thing we can do for Alexei and for ourselves is to continue to fight more desperately, more fiercely than before,” she said.