The rupee depreciated 12 paise to 87.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (October 27, 2025), weighed down by rising crude oil prices supported by optimism over a potential U.S.-China deal.

Forex traders said the rally in crude oil prices was driven by the potential U.S.-China trade deal, which supports expectations for a stronger global oil demand.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 87.87, and slipped to 87.95 against the greenback, registering a fall of 12 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (October 24, 2025), the rupee appreciated 5 paise to close at 87.83 against the U.S. dollar.

“For now, the rupee seems to be walking a tightrope between caution and hope. If it manages to break below 87.50, it could find room to appreciate toward 86.80–87 in the near term. On the other hand, resistance stands around 88.30–88.40,” CR Forex Advisors MD – Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.04% to 98.91.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.02% to ₹65.95 per barrel in futures trading.

The US sanctions against Russia continue, with traders continuing to watch developments around trade negotiations and geopolitical events as these remain key for energy market sentiment and ongoing price trajectory, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

On the domestic equity markets front, Sensex climbed 272.7 points to 84,484.58 in early trade, while the Nifty was up 88.55 points to 25,883.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹621.51 crore on Friday (October 24, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves increased by $4.496 billion to $702.28 billion during the week ended October 17, as the value of gold reserves rose further, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous week, the overall reserves had jumped by $2.176 billion to $697.784 billion.

The rupee recovered 15 paise from its all-time low to 88.65 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (October 1, 2025), after the Reserve Bank Governor delivered a dovish pause, broadly in line with market expectations.

RBI MPC meeting LIVE

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expectedly left its key interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (October 1, 2025), as it waited for greater clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs as well as playout of earlier rate cuts and recent tax reductions.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, however, signalled scope for easing in the coming months to support the economy from any possible hit from U.S. tariffs.

The six-member monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 5.5% and decided to continue with a “neutral” policy stance, giving it flexibility to move in either direction if needed in future.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.79 against the U.S. dollar, then rose to 88.65, higher by 15 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (September 30, 2025), the rupee fell 5 paise to an all-time low of 88.80 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday (October 1, 2025) announced a slew of measures, including allowing banks to lend in Indian Rupees to non-residents from Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for bilateral trade to promote the use of domestic currency for cross-border settlements.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra proposed to establish transparent reference rates for currencies of India’s major trading partners to facilitate INR-based transactions.

RBI has permitted wider use of Special Rupee Vostro Account (SRVA) balances by making them eligible for investment in corporate bonds and commercial papers.

SRVA is an account opened by a foreign bank with an Indian bank to facilitate international trade settlements directly in Indian Rupees (INR). These measures will help reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and thus shield the economy from sudden exchange rate fluctuations and currency crises.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 97.61, lower by 0.16%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.24% higher at $66.19 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty extended early gains and were trading significantly higher on Wednesday, helped by buying in bank stocks.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,327.09 crore on Tuesday (September 30, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Centre’s fiscal deficit stood at 38.1% of the full-year target at the end of August, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Tuesday (September 30, 2025).

The fiscal deficit was 27% of the Budget Estimates (BE) of 2024-25 in the first five months of the previous financial year.

The rupee rose 3 paise to 88.72 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (September 30, 2025) on the back of a fall in crude oil prices and positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets.

However, a marginally stronger greenback, coupled with FII outflows, prevented sharper gains in the local unit, according to forex traders. They added that the markets are awaiting the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee decision, which will be announced on Wednesday (October 1, 2025).

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.73 against the U.S. dollar before inching up to 88.72, higher by 3 paise from its previous close.

Rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled lower by 3 paise at 88.75 against the greenback on Monday (September 29, 2025).

“FPIs continue to be sellers in equity markets taking rupee down whenever it rises and with no further news on the India-US trade treaty, markets are awaiting the RBI’s policy decision on Wednesday (October 1, 2025),” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

The RBI meeting is taking place against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the U.S. imposing 50% tariffs on Indian shipments.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 97.94, higher by 0.04%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.79% lower at $67.43 per barrel in futures trade.

“Brent fell on increased supply from Kurdistan exports to Turkey, with OPEC+ preparing for another rise in production in November and the possible U.S. shutdown also reducing the consumption,” Mr. Bhansali said.

On the domestic equity market front, markets bounced back in early trade with the Sensex climbing 312.88 points to 80,677.82 and the Nifty rising 96.9 points to 24,731.80.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,831.59 crore on Monday (September 29, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced the imposition of a 100% tariff on branded or patented drugs entering the U.S. from October 1, except for pharmaceutical companies building manufacturing plants in the U.S.

The exemption covers projects where construction has started, including sites that have broken ground or are under construction.

The rupee depreciated 28 paise to close at 88.13 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (September 18, 2025), on hawkish Fed and a bounce back in the U.S. dollar.

Forex traders said traders assessed the U.S. FED outlook following a rate cut. The U.S. FED reduced rates by a quarter point as expected and indicated that it will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of the year.

Moreover, the rupee remained under pressure on worries over U.S. tariffs on India and global trade uncertainties. Besides, sustained foreign fund outflows also dented investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.93 against the U.S. dollar and touched an intra-day low of 88.16 before ending the session at 88.13 (provisional), down 28 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday (September 17, 2025), the rupee appreciated 24 paise to close at 87.85 against the U.S. dollar.

The Indian rupee declined sharply on hawkish Fed and a bounce back in the U.S. dollar. Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps, in line with estimates. It sees two more 25 bps rate cut in 2025 and just one 25 bps rate cut in 2026.

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell does not see elevated financial risks on tariffs. However, he raised downside concerns over labour market and GDP growth,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst Currency and commodities Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said.

Mr. Choudhary added that positive domestic markets and expectations of fresh FII inflows may also support the rupee. However, any recovery in the U.S. dollar and/or U.S. treasury yields may cap sharp upside.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.02% to 96.89.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.43% lower at $67.66 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex jumped 320.25 points to settle at 83,013.96, while the Nifty rose 93.35 points to 25,423.60.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹1,124.54 crore on a net basis on Wednesday (September 17, 2025, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Wednesday (September 17, 2025) expressed confidence that India’s exports would grow around 6% this year compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

Underscoring the country’s strong performance in global trade despite challenges, the minister said discussions on free trade agreements (FTAs) were advancing with several countries.

“India’s exports would grow around 6% this year compared to the corresponding period last year. I believe we will end the year on a positive note,” Mr. Goyal said, adding that discussions on free trade agreements (FTAs) were advancing with several countries.

The rupee appreciated 14 paise to 87.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (September 9, 2025), tracking a positive trend in domestic equities even as concerns over U.S. tariffs on India weighed on the domestic unit.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure on worries over U.S. tariffs on India and global uncertainty. Moreover, recent record lows for the domestic unit are prompting a possible RBI intervention to cap the losses in rupee, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 87.98 against the U.S. dollar, then touched 87.95, registering a gain of 14 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (September 5, 2025), the rupee touched the lowest-ever intraday level of 88.38 but pared all losses before ending 3 paise higher at ₹88.09 against the U.S. dollar.

The unit had recorded its all-time low closing level of 88.15 against the dollar on September 2.

The forex market was closed on Monday (September 8, 2025), as the Maharashtra government had declared a public holiday on account of Eid-e-Milad on September 8, instead of September 5.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 97.40, lower by 0.05%, after the U.S. NFPR disappointed while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% paving the way for the FED rate cut and with some market participants also predicting a 50 bps rate cut on September 17th, when the FOMC meets.

“Looking ahead, the spotlight will firmly be on U.S. inflation data (CPI) for August, due Thursday (September 11, 2025). A softer reading would strengthen the case for larger rate cuts, keeping the dollar under pressure. On the other hand, any upside surprise in inflation could complicate the Fed’s path, injecting fresh volatility into the dollar’s trajectory,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.53% higher at $66.37 per barrel in futures trade.

“While softer US data and potential Fed policy shifts could provide some support to the rupee, India’s trade and tariff headwinds may cap any recovery, keeping upside risks intact,” Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rallied 366.87 points to 81,154.17 in early trade, while Nifty climbed 101.35 points to 24,874.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,170.35 crore on Monday (September 8, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, in a fresh outburst, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro on Monday (September 8, 2025) said India “must come around” at some point on trade negotiations with the U.S. or else it “won’t end well” for Delhi.

Mr. Navarro, in an interview with the ‘Real America’s Voice’ show, said the Indian government takes offence to him and described India as the ‘Maharajah’ of tariffs.

The rupee appreciated 20 paise to close at 87.43 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (August 13, 2025), as a weak greenback and a positive momentum in domestic equity markets enthused investors.

Forex traders said weak crude oil prices and cooling domestic inflation supported the rupee, but uncertainties over trade tariffs and foreign fund outflows capped the sharp upside for the domestic unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.63, and oscillated between an intraday low of 87.72 and a high of 87.28 against the American currency.

The rupee finally settled at 87.43, higher by 20 paise over its previous close. On Tuesday (August 12, 2025), the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 87.63 against the U.S. dollar.

“The rupee experienced its biggest one-day appreciation since July 3, driven by a decline in the US dollar. The dollar weakened amid expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, following a decline in US inflation,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said.

“Further bolstering the rupee’s performance were several domestic and regional factors, including gains in Indian equities and other Asian currencies, a fall in crude oil prices, and a fall in the domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI).”

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel in futures trade.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.44% to 97.66.

“The rupee rose sharply on cooling inflation and strength in the domestic markets. India’s CPI inflation cooled off to 1.55% in July 2025 vs the forecast of 1.76% and 2.1% in June. The U.S. Dollar too fell as CPI data was in line with estimates, raising odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September,” said Anuj Chaudhary, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currencies, Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Retail inflation slowed to an 8-year low of 1.55% in July, falling below the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone for the first time since January 2019, helped by subdued prices of food items, according to government data released on Tuesday (August 12, 2025).

The government has tasked the Reserve Bank to ensure that the consumer price index-based retail inflation remains at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side.

Mr. Chaudhary further noted that sliding crude oil prices also supported the rupee.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias on risk sentiments in the global market and a weakening U.S. dollar. Softening inflation and declining crude oil prices may further support the domestic currency.

“However, the ongoing trade tariff war between India and the U.S. and FII outflows may cap sharp upside. Investors may remain cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting on Friday (August 15, 2025),” Mr. Chaudhary said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share sensitive index Sensex climbed 304.32 points to settle at 80,539.91, while Nifty rose 131.95 points to close at 24,619.35.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹3,398.80 crore on Tuesday (August 12, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 16 paise to close at 87.82 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (August 5, 2025), as risk-off sentiment deepened after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to raise tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to slide further as India-U.S. trade deal uncertainty continues to dent domestic market sentiments.

Moreover, weak equity markets dented investors’ sentiments further. However, the domestic unit pared initial losses on supposed intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

A soft U.S. dollar and overnight decline in crude oil prices also cushioned the downside to some extent, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 87.95 against the greenback, and during the day, it touched an intra-day high of 87.75 against the American currency.

At the end of Tuesday’s (August 5, 2025) trading session, the domestic unit was at 87.82 (provisional), down 16 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (August 3, 2025), the rupee depreciated 48 paise to close at 87.66 against the U.S. dollar.

In a fresh trade threat against India, President Donald Trump on Monday (August 3, 2025) said he will “substantially” raise U.S. tariffs on New Delhi, accusing it of buying massive amounts of Russian oil and selling it for big profits.

Last week, the Trump administration slapped a 25% duty on all Indian goods. The U.S. president also announced a penalty for buying “vast majority” of Russian military equipment and crude oil.

“We expect the rupee to continue to slide as India-U.S. trade deal uncertainty continues to dent domestic market sentiments. Weak tone in the domestic equities and FII outflows may further pressurise the rupee,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Commodities Research, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said.

Mr. Choudhary added that “the rupee may also remain weak ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy. Market expects a rate cut by the central bank. However, overall weakness in the U.S. dollar amid rising odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September may support the rupee at lower levels”.

Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the RBI monetary policy decision this week.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-headed rate-setting panel on Monday (August 3, 2025) started the three-day deliberations to decide the next bi-monthly monetary policy.

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the next bi-monthly policy rate on Wednesday (August 6, 2025).

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.97% to $68.09 per barrel in futures trade, after OPEC+ agreed to hike another large output increase in September, adding to oversupply concerns after U.S. data showed lacklustre fuel demand.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.18% to 98.68.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 308.47 points, or 0.38%, to close at 80,710.25, while the Nifty rose 73.20 points, or 0.30%, to settle at 24,649.55.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth $2,566.51 crore on a net basis on Monday (August 3, 2025), according to exchange data.