rupee – Artifex.News https://artifex.news Stay Connected. Stay Informed. Tue, 22 Sep 2026 05:11:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 https://artifex.news/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/cropped-cropped-app-logo-32x32.png rupee – Artifex.News https://artifex.news 32 32 Rupee rises 13 paise to 95.65 against U.S. dollar in early trade https://artifex.news/article71494232-ece/ Tue, 22 Sep 2026 05:11:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71494232-ece/ Read More “Rupee rises 13 paise to 95.65 against U.S. dollar in early trade” »

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At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.75, then touched 95.65 against the American currency, registering a gain of 13 paise from its previous close. FIle.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 13 paise to 95.65 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (September 22, 2026) supported by a pullback in crude oil prices and positive domestic market sentiment.

Forex traders said the rupee opened positive this morning with Brent crude retreating from elevated levels on easing immediate supply concerns, as Saudi Arabia increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz and markets were hopeful of partial restoration of the damaged East-West pipeline.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.75, then touched 95.65 against the American currency, registering a gain of 13 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (September 21, 2026), the rupee appreciated 18 paise to close at 95.78 against the U.S. dollar.

“The rupee remains range-bound. Softer crude is its main support, offset by a firm dollar after the Fed’s hike and continued foreign portfolio outflows,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities.

Banerjee further said: “We see 96.30 as the upper cap, with strong Reserve Bank intervention expected as the pair approaches 96.30–96.50, and support at 95.50 and then 95.” “The central bank has also been actively draining the surplus liquidity created by the special deposit inflows through bond sales and reverse-repo auctions, which is keeping the adjustment orderly,” he added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 100.35, down marginally by 0.07%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 1.05% at $101.39 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rose 42.51 points to 74,901.50 in opening trade, while the Nifty was up 39.75 points to 23,454.05.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹576.20 crore on a net basis on Monday (September 21, 2026), according to exchange data.

Government data released on Monday (September 21, 2026) showed the output of the country’s nine key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a three-month low of 4.8% in August due to a fall in the production of coal, natural gas, crude oil, and fertiliser. The output expanded by 6.2% in the same month last year and by 5% in July this year.



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Rupee falls 13 paise to 95.56 against U.S. dollar in early trade https://artifex.news/article71409711-ece/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:17:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71409711-ece/ Read More “Rupee falls 13 paise to 95.56 against U.S. dollar in early trade” »

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee fell 13 paise to trade at 95.56 per U.S. dollar on Monday (August 31, 2026) morning pressured by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical strain.

Forex traders said market participants have raised the probability of a September Fed rate hike, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and triggering a broad dollar rally, denting investor sentiments further.

At the interbank foreign exchange market the rupee opened at 95.56, registering a fall of 13 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (August 28), the rupee rose marginally by 2 paise to settle at 95.43 against the U.S. dollar.

The rupee opened lower as the dollar index was at 99.62 level, while most other assets fell from their levels on Friday (August 28), said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The rupee is expected to be in the range of 95.25 to 95.75 with exporters to sell near 95.60 levels and importers to buy all dips that they get with no directional movement being seen in the currencies, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.62, lower marginally by 0.07%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 1.34% at $89.28 per barrel in futures trade, driven by a renewed West Asia supply-risk premium after the U.S. strike on Iran’s Larak Island and subsequent Iranian retaliation, raising fresh concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Forex traders said RBI is intervening in the market to stem any significant depreciation in the rupee. Moreover, better-than-expected flows under the FCNR(B) scheme also boosted investor sentiments.

On the domestic equities market front, Sensex declined 226.60 points to 77,028.56, while the Nifty fell 120.40 points to 24,053.55.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹5,039.80 crore on a net basis on Friday (August 28), according to exchange data.

India’s forex reserves jumped $12.422 billion to a new all-time high of $729.328 billion during the week ended August 21, the RBI said on Friday (August 28).

Meanwhile, the Commerce Ministry will meet with industry associations and representatives of export promotion councils on September 1 on India-U.S. trade performance.

The meeting will be chaired by Additional Secretary in the Ministry Darpan Jain. He is also the country’s chief negotiator for the India-U.S. bilateral trade agreement.



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Rupee falls 8 paise to 95.38 against U.S. dollar in early trade https://artifex.news/article71331138-ece/ Tue, 11 Aug 2026 05:30:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71331138-ece/ Read More “Rupee falls 8 paise to 95.38 against U.S. dollar in early trade” »

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee fell 8 paise to 95.38 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (August 11, 2026) amid no breakthrough in the ongoing West Asia crisis, which kept global markets on edge and pushed up crude oil prices overnight.

A decline in domestic equity markets in early trade maintained pressure on the local unit while FII inflows and intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) provided support, preventing a further slide, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.38 against the U.S. dollar and maintained that level till the time of publishing the copy.

The rupee declined 13 paise to settle at 95.30 against the U.S. dollar on Monday (August 10, 2026).

“The rupee traded in a relatively narrow range (on Monday) despite Brent rising towards USD 84. The downside was contained by RBI intervention, with state-run banks reportedly selling dollars on the central bank’s behalf,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“Today Brent has gone past $87 per barrel as Iran and the U.S. continue to harbour the Strait of Hormuz uncertainty on fading hopes of a deal happening soon,” he added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.77, down 0.04$.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, which rose sharply since the $ 84/barrel-levels on Monday, was trading lower by 0.06$ at $87.67 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 320.14 points to 78,204.40 in early trade while the Nifty fell 94.35 points to 24,490.85.

Foreign institutional investors purchased equities worth ₹1,974.76 crore on a net basis on Monday, according to exchange data.



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Rupee rises for 6th day, gains 12 paise to 95.31 against U.S. dollar as crude drops https://artifex.news/article71301127-ece/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:30:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71301127-ece/ Read More “Rupee rises for 6th day, gains 12 paise to 95.31 against U.S. dollar as crude drops” »

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee strengthened against the U.S. currency for the sixth consecutive session on Monday, closing higher by 12 paise at 95.31 (provisional) following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices and a softer greenback after US President Donald Trump decided to hold off strikes against Iran.

FII inflows and gains in domestic stock markets provided further support to the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 95.15 against the greenback and traded in a tight range of 95.11-95.34 during the day. It eventually settled at 95.31 (provisional), up 12 paise from its previous close.

The rupee has rebounded by more than 3 per cent in the six trading sessions to Monday, aided by FII inflows and easing of tensions in the West Asia region. The unit had closed higher by 7 paise at 95.43 against the US dollar on Friday.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday said he decided to hold off on ordering American forces to carry out new strikes against Iran at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The president added that a plan was in place for the US forces to carry out “the biggest attack since World War II” on Sunday. However, he decided to scrap the plan and give diplomacy more time to play out after hearing from key Gulf leaders — including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — as well as at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.

“The rupee gained as US President Donald Trump cancelled his plan to attack Iran over the weekend. He also said the US and Iran are due to negotiate Monday evening. This boosted global risk sentiments. A sharp fall in crude oil prices, too, supported the rupee,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on a rise in risk appetite in global markets… Any renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran may cap sharp upside. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in the range of ₹94.90 to ₹95.50,” he said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.07 per cent lower at 99.84.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 5.06 per cent lower at $83.48 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex rose 544.39 points, or 0.70 per cent, to close at 78,639.03, while the Nifty was up 390.70 points, or 1.60 per cent, to settle at 24,774.30.

Foreign Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹277.48 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data.

The RBI data released on Friday showed that the country’s forex reserves jumped $6.118 billion to $682.354 billion during the week ended July 24. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased $1.08 billion to $676.237 billion.

The central government’s fiscal deficit stood at 18.2 per cent of the full-year target at the end of June, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Friday.



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Rupee rises 14 paise to close at 95.21 against US dollar https://artifex.news/article71178464-ece/ Fri, 03 Jul 2026 11:55:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71178464-ece/ Read More “Rupee rises 14 paise to close at 95.21 against US dollar” »

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 14 paise to close at 95.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (July 3, 2026) as the dollar index retreated from its recent 15-month high levels and mirrored positive domestic equities.

Forex traders said despite a weaker dollar index and lower crude oil prices, the rupee is facing pressure from robust dollar demand from importers and corporate hedgers.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.20 against the American currency and traded in a range of 95.16-95.35 during the session.

The rupee finally closed at 95.21 (provisional), registering a rise of 14 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday (July 2, 2026), the rupee pared initial gains and settled for the day on a negative note, lower by 19 paise at 95.35 against the U.S. dollar.

According to experts, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is actively purchasing dollars to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves, which have dropped to roughly $672.6 billion from a February peak of $728.49 billion.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 100.75, lower than its recent 15-month high of 101.6.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 0.22% at $71.96 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 261.79 points to settle at 77,763.91, while the Nifty was up 95.15 points to 24,270.85.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹311.82 crore on a net basis on Thursday (June 2, 2026), according to exchange data.

Foreign investors extended their selling spree in June, withdrawing ₹49,340 crore ($5.16 billion) from Indian equities, triggered by a combination of early-month global risk aversion, a preference for developed markets, soaring U.S. bond yields, and stretched valuations in the domestic market.

According to data from the Central Depository Services (India) Ltd, the total withdrawals by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities have surged to ₹2.7 lakh crore so far in 2026, surpassing the ₹1.66 lakh crore pulled out during the entire calendar year 2025.



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Rupee falls 67 paise to close at 95.23 against U.S. dollar https://artifex.news/article71169947-ece/ Wed, 01 Jul 2026 12:07:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71169947-ece/ Read More “Rupee falls 67 paise to close at 95.23 against U.S. dollar” »

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The rupee depreciated 67 paise to close at 95.23 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (July 1, 2026), as a strengthening dollar index weighed on emerging market currencies.

Forex traders said the USD/INR pair witnessed significant pressure due to the strengthening of the American currency in the overseas market, persistent capital outflows, and broader Asian currency weakness.

Moreover, market sentiment turned highly cautious, following the breach of the psychological level of 95.00.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.67 against the American currency and traded in a range of 94.60-95.29 during the session.

The rupee finally closed at 95.23 (provisional), registering a decline of 67 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (June 30, 2026), the rupee depreciated by 5 paise to close at 94.56 against the U.S. dollar.

“The Indian rupee declined for a third consecutive session, pressured by short covering and a strengthening U.S. dollar against major currencies. Additional weakness across Asian currencies further weighed on the rupee,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said.

Parmar further added that market sentiment has turned negative following the breach of the 95 level. “In the near term, spot USD-INR is expected to face resistance at 95.80, while support is seen at 94.60.”

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 101.42, up 0.23%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.88% at $72.31 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex jumped 443.97 points to settle at 76,922.64, while the Nifty climbed 140.10 points to 24,005.85.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹2,556.75 crore on a net basis on Tuesday (June 30, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s manufacturing sector activity growth eased in June, as new business orders and international sales increased at softer rates, resulting in slower expansions in buying levels, employment and output.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 55.0 in May to 54.2 in June, pointing to the second-weakest improvement in the health of the sector since mid-2022.



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Rupee falls 7 paise to 94.58 against U.S. dollar in early trade https://artifex.news/article71164458-ece/ Tue, 30 Jun 2026 05:09:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71164458-ece/ Read More “Rupee falls 7 paise to 94.58 against U.S. dollar in early trade” »

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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee fell 7 paise to 94.58 against the American currency in early trade on Tuesday (June 30, 2026), as month-end demand for dollars from importers and corporates added pressure on the domestic unit.

Forex traders said the losses for the rupee were partly cushioned by relatively stable crude oil prices globally.

However, concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Gulf and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee touched 94.58 against the U.S. dollar, registering a loss of 7 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (June 29, 2026), the rupee pared initial gains and settled lower by 6 paise at 94.51 against the dollar.

“As June draws to a close, month-end and quarter-end dollar demand has started showing up once again. Importers, corporates, and banks typically use this period to square positions and meet payment obligations, creating additional demand for dollars,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 101.31, up 0.21%.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.44% at $72.83 per barrel in futures trade.

“The sharp geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil higher earlier has largely faded, with traders now focusing on the resumption of US-Iran discussions. However, mixed signals from both sides mean that energy markets are not yet ready to declare the situation resolved,” Mr. Pabari said.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, industrial production expanded by 5.1% in May, exceeding market expectations and improving from the previous month’s reading.

The IIP data suggest that despite global uncertainty, domestic economic activity continues to show resilience. Stronger growth ultimately strengthens the foundation on which the rupee stands, Mr. Pabari added.

“Technically, 94.00–94.30 remains a strong support zone for USDINR. The pair has repeatedly tested this area over the past week but has been unable to break lower, indicating strong dollar demand and possible RBI buying interest,” he added.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 103.95 points to 76,624.42 in early trade, while the Nifty dropped 40.10 points to 23,908.80.

Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹1,350.1 crore on a net basis on Monday (June 29, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said on Tuesday (June 30, 2026) said the U.S.-India trade deal is in its “final steps”, with only the last 1% of negotiations left to be concluded.

Addressing the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum Leadership Summit, Mr. Gor said he was determined to agree as it would be beneficial to both nations, and it would be sealed after nearly 18 months of talks.



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Rupee rises 5 paise to 95.53 against U.S. dollar in early trade https://artifex.news/article71035951-ece/ Fri, 29 May 2026 05:02:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71035951-ece/ Read More “Rupee rises 5 paise to 95.53 against U.S. dollar in early trade” »

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At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.77 against the U.S. dollar, then gained ground and touched 95.53 in early trade, up 5 paise from its previous close. In initial trade the rupee also touched 95.78 against the American currency.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee rose 5 paise to 95.53 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (May 29, 2026), after the U.S. and Iran reached an understanding to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days.

Forex traders said the agreement is expected to keep trade flowing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz while both countries continue negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.77 against the U.S. dollar, then gained ground and touched 95.53 in early trade, up 5 paise from its previous close. In initial trade the rupee also touched 95.78 against the American currency.

On Wednesday (May 27), the rupee settled higher by 12 paise at 95.58 against the U.S. dollar.

Domestic equity and forex markets were closed on Thursday on account of Id-ul-Azha.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement on Thursday (May 28) to extend the ceasefire in the three-month-old war by 60 days.

“For markets, this mattered because it reduced immediate fears of fresh disruption in oil supplies. As a result, crude oil prices stayed relatively stable, something that always offers relief to oil-importing countries like India,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.09, up 0.07%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 1.12% at $92.66 per barrel in futures trade.

According to traders a softer dollar and stable oil prices could provide some near-term support to the rupee. However, the rupee’s biggest challenge right now remains foreign investment flows.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold nearly $24 billion from Indian equity markets since the beginning of 2026. Debt market flows, in comparison, have remained relatively stable with inflows of around $1 billion.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,042.70 crore on a net basis on Wednesday (May 27), according to exchange data.

“The RBI has already been using several tools to stabilise the rupee, including liquidity operations, forex management measures and steps to curb speculative positions. But if pressure on the currency continues, interest rates could eventually become the next line of defence,” Mr. Pabari said, adding that “the upcoming RBI policy meeting between June 3 and June 5 has become extremely important.”

“As long as global risk sentiment continues improving and crude oil prices remain under control, the rupee could gradually appreciate toward the 94.50–94.80 region in the near term.

“Any cautious signal from the RBI could further strengthen that recovery by improving investor confidence and attracting flows back into the system,” he said.



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Why is the Indian Rupee falling? https://artifex.news/article71022536-ece/ Mon, 25 May 2026 17:39:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71022536-ece/ Read More “Why is the Indian Rupee falling?” »

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The graph of the Indian rupee has been snaking sharply downward. The rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, or the rupees needed to purchase a U.S. dollar, crossed 96 in May this year. That rate was around 85 a year ago, indicating the rupee’s decline in value since then.

Exchange rate is the price that a currency, such as the rupee, commands in the market, relative to the dollar or other currencies. Just as the market price of onions is determined by demand and supply, so is the price of a currency.

What is the impact of trade deficits on the rupee’s value?

The demand for the rupee rises with India’s exports and falls with imports. When firms in Ludhiana export garments, the dollars or euros they receive from foreign buyers are exchanged for rupees to pay workers and suppliers, thereby increasing demand for the rupee. On the other hand, Indian companies import oil by exchanging rupees for dollars, thereby reducing the demand for the rupee. Rupee demand also declines when we travel abroad and exchange rupees at the airport for the currency of our destination country.

Overall, if India’s imports exceed exports, the foreign currency payments it must make to the rest of the world exceed the foreign currency payments it receives. That implies more rupees are exchanged for dollars than dollars are exchanged for rupees, leading to declines in the demand for, and the value of the rupee (requiring more rupees to purchase one dollar).

Thus, a currency’s exchange rate is closely tied to the country’s balance of (foreign currency) payments (to and from the rest of the world). India has consistently run a merchandise trade deficit, with imports of goods (especially oil) exceeding exports. The deficit in its merchandise trade account is partially offset by a surplus in India’s invisibles. That is mainly thanks to foreign currency inflows from the export of services, particularly software, and to the large remittance inflows from migrant workers, especially in West Asian countries. Overall, India’s current account, which is the sum of merchandise trade and the invisibles accounts, has been in deficit (Table 1).

A currency’s exchange rate is closely tied to the country’s balance of payments.

The gap in the current account, between the foreign currency payments India owes to the rest of the world and the foreign currency payments it receives, has been bridged by inflows through the capital account, mainly foreign investment and loans. If the current account deficit is more than offset by a surplus in the capital account, the excess foreign currency received is added to the country’s foreign exchange (or forex) reserves (Table 1).

How do capital outflows weaken the rupee?

A country’s forex reserves are as valuable as a family’s treasure trove. The reserves are tapped to pay for critical imports during periods of insufficient foreign currency inflows, and to defend the currency’s value when capital outflows are too large (discussed below).

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is mostly in new or existing factories and businesses and, as a result, has some ties binding it to the host country. In comparison, foreign portfolio investment (FPI), which involves purchases of stocks or bonds, is highly volatile and driven by speculation. Portfolio investors enter a country seeking quick financial returns and exit at the first sign of risk or when higher returns are offered elsewhere. When FPI surges in, the stock markets are on a roll; when it flows out, it leaves a trail of destruction. Capital outflows imply that investors withdraw their investments in rupee assets and exchange them for dollar assets, leading to a tumble in demand for the rupee and in its exchange rate.

The periods of rapid depreciation of the Indian rupee have each been characterised by worsening of the trade account, FPI outflows, or both. These include April to September 2013 (when the rupee-to-dollar rate fell from 54.4 to 63.8); January to October 2018 (from 63.6 to 73.6); February to April 2020 (from 71.5 to 76.2); January to October 2022 (from 74.4 to 82.3); September 2024 to February 2025 (from 83.3 to 87.1); and the latest phase that began in May 2025 (from 85.2 to 96) (Chart 1). The recent losses in the rupee have mainly been due to foreign investors withdrawing from India as they retreat to the safety of their home bases amid growing geopolitical tensions and higher U.S. interest rates.

The depreciation of the rupee imposes a high cost on the Indian economy. To purchase a barrel of oil at $100, Indian companies now must pay ₹9,600, compared to ₹8,500 had the exchange rate remained at ₹85 per dollar. However, a depressed rupee can help boost exports: a shirt costing ₹1,200 can be sold in the U.S. market at $12.5 now; if the exchange rate were ₹80 per dollar, the price would have been $15. But rupee depreciation alone may not help much, given the range of supply and demand constraints weighing on Indian manufacturing.

What is the role of the RBI?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes to prevent the exchange rate from falling to very low levels. When foreign investors rush out by selling their rupee assets for dollars, the RBI props up the rupee by selling some of the dollars (or treasury bonds) from its reserves. This raises the demand for rupee and slows its decline (as it did during October 2024-January 2025 and August-December 2025) (Chart 2). India’s forex reserves remain sufficiently large: they stood at around USD 691.11 billion at the end of March 2026, enough to cover 10.8 months’ worth of the country’s imports (as of the end of December 2025). That is a mighty armoury the RBI can deploy to shield the rupee against impending speculative tides.

The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the threat of further oil price increases pose severe challenges. India could be at risk of paying more dollars per barrel of oil and more rupees per dollar. The country must take steps to regulate speculative capital outflows and reduce its dependence on oil imports.

(Jayan Jose Thomas is a Professor of Economics at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, and a visiting researcher at the South Asia Institute of the University of Heidelberg.)

Published – May 26, 2026 07:30 am IST



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Should the rupee be left to depreciate? https://artifex.news/article71007759-ece/ Thu, 21 May 2026 17:24:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71007759-ece/ Read More “Should the rupee be left to depreciate?” »

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Continuous days of sustained losses has seen the rupee close at almost ₹97 to the dollar, with no indication that the slide has been arrested. Rising oil prices and the threat of external inflation will put further pressure on the rupee in the days to come. This has prompted calls for intervention to prevent further falls.

Some writers, like Harvard professor Gita Gopinath, have resisted calls for intervention by the RBI, advocating for letting the rupee find its own level. A weaker rupee would automatically curtail imports and boost exports. Intervention would only obstruct the free flow of market forces.

While intervention does have its challenges, there is danger in letting the process of depreciation continue unabated, especially when much of it is being driven by speculative finance. With foreign interest rates bound to rise, capital will flow out faster, leading to stronger negative pressures on the rupee. In such a scenario, it might take inordinately long for the rupee to ‘find its level’, and the inflationary dangers of a weak rupee will exert even more stresses on a populace already exposed to hardship as a result of worldwide spikes in energy prices.

Can intervention deepen volatility?

A current account deficit implies more imports than exports, and hence a greater need for foreign currency. If this is adequately met by foreign capital inflow to purchase assets like stocks, the rupee’s value relative to the dollar will not change.

If the economy experiences a deficit without sufficient inflow of foreign capital, it faces a problem, with demand for foreign exchange exceeding available supply. Mainstream models dictate that in such a situation, the rupee must depreciate. The weaker rupee makes exports more affordable and imports more expensive, leading to an automatic adjustment of the current account deficit relative to the available inflow of foreign capital.

In such a scenario, intervening to artificially prop up the value of the rupee only delays the inevitable. It inhibits adjustment by ensuring import demand does not fall, because the rupee has not depreciated enough to naturally shut off higher import demand, the cause of the widening deficit in the first place.

What is the difference between a weak rupee and a falling rupee?

Arguments for non-intervention, however, conflate a falling rupee with a weak rupee. A fall in the rupee value would not automatically increase export demand if the market expects a further fall. Exports might be higher when the rupee is weak, but may not rise when the rupee is falling if foreign buyers expect the price to fall even further and for goods to become cheaper at a later date.

At the same time, if the economy imports essential goods like oil, demand may not automatically reduce sufficiently as the rupee falls. If people expect the rupee to fall further, and for the prices to rise even more tomorrow, they may front-load purchases today and increase import demand in the short run. This can be seen in the rush to buy petrol when prices were raised, as consumers expected further increases in the future.

A falling rupee would see higher import values, but no necessary increase in exports, ensuring that the deficit is not curtailed. The very problem that required a depreciation might just perpetuate itself. One might argue that exports would pick up and imports reduce when the process eventually works itself out. But the adjustment process is rarely painless. Rising import values of essential goods will lead to rising inflation in the domestic economy that has already experienced reverse migration and real wage squeezes.

What is the role of capital flows?

For the sake of argument, one can posit an equilibrium value of the rupee driven by fundamental values, such as export and import demands that exhibits uniform and predictable behaviour as the rupee changes value. The process may be long, but the economy might eventually settle at this value, driven by fundamental changes in the current account. However, this assumption neglects the role of speculative foreign capital.

Much of the fall in the rupee has been driven by speculative outflows of foreign institutional investment that, for whatever reason, does not see Indian assets as being sufficiently remunerative. Perhaps investors think returns on Indian stocks will not be high in the future, that growth is not sustainable, or that interest rates will rise in developed country markets. Whatever the reason, these speculative expectations of foreign investors can lead to capital outflow and depreciation, necessitating current account adjustments based on the sentiments of foreign investors.

In such a situation, the ‘actual’ value of the rupee is determined not by consumption demand but by speculation. There are no fundamentals or technical values underpinning the pure speculation of financial markets. With indications that foreign Central Banks may soon raise interest rates, the rupee could come under further pressure.

Intervention is one amongst many policies that must be considered, and one that even developed economies have resorted to. As the yen slid against the dollar in April this year, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signalled that the government would take ‘decisive action’ in financial markets to maintain the yen. This announcement did lead to the yen recovering some losses initially after the announcement, though it continues to lose ground due to limited actual intervention.

Intervention to stem speculative capital flows is extremely hard to manage, and can lead to negative outcomes if the force of speculation is too great, or if governments do not – or cannot – show enough commitment in markets. However, we must not assume that the rupee can find an equilibrium value soon, for its fall is being driven by speculation rather than any fundamental economic behaviour. It is time to have a serious conversation regarding the role and place of foreign capital in India’s growth story. 

(Rahul Menon is associate professor at O.P. Jindal Global University.)

Published – May 22, 2026 07:30 am IST



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