According to forex experts, amid rising tensions with the U.S. and economic concerns, the rupee remained vulnerable and could see further downside as uncertainty continues to mount. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

 At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened on a negative note and touched an early low of 87.15 against the American currency on July 30, 025, registering a fall of 24 paise over its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.88 and gained further ground to trade at 86.79 against the greenback during early deals on February 20, 2025.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The rupee appreciated 19 paise to 86.79 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday (February 20, 2025), as the American currency and crude oil prices retreated from their elevated levels.

Forex traders said there is a negative bias for the USD/INR pair amid a muted trend in domestic equities and the unabated foreign fund outflow is weighing on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.88 and gained further ground to trade at 86.79 against the greenback during early deals, up 19 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to close at 86.98 against US dollar.

The forex market was closed on Wednesday on account of ‘Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti’ Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.16 per cent lower at 107.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.34 per cent to USD 75.78 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said on the domestic front, India’s economy is expected to demonstrate a strong momentum in the second half of the year but the rupee is battling global headwinds.

According to an article on ‘State of the Economy’ published in RBI’s February bulletin, high frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward.

However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, it added.

“The USD/INR pair is expected to trade within a range of 86.60–87.20. The 87.20 level is emerging as a strong resistance, while 86.50 is acting as a critical support zone, A breach below 86.50 could open up a path for 85.80-86.00 levels,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 297.33 points, or 0.39 per cent, lower at 75,641.85 points, while the Nifty was down 69.25 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 22,863.65 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,881.30 crore on net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

The rupee traded in a narrow range and depreciated 9 paise to 87.16 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (February 5, 2025) , as global trade war has fuelled risk aversion among investors.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading with a negative bias over global trade war as market participants mulled the impact of tariffs being imposed by the United States and China.

However, any central bank intervention may support the rupee, they added.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.13 then fell further to 87.16 against the American currency, registering a decline of 9 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee recovered 4 paise from its all-time low level to close at 87.07 against US dollar.

“For now the trade war seems to have slowed down as we await comments from Donald Trump on European exports and also on currencies. Meanwhile, the rupee remains range bound within a range of 86.90/87.25,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Mr. Trump is pressing ahead with a 10 per cent tariff on US companies importing things from China. On Tuesday, China retaliated by announcing its own tariffs on some US products and an antitrust investigation into Google.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 107.89, lower by 0.06 per cent.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was quoted 0.50 per cent lower at USD 75.82 per barrel in futures trade.

Investors may remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting this week, traders said.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve bank of India (RBI) will begin its three-day meeting on February 5. The MPC will announce its policy decisions on February 7.

Mr. Trump on Monday (February 3, 2025) held off on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada for 30 days after they pledged to boost border enforcement.

Forex traders said the overall uncertainty about the global economy continued to weigh on both currencies and commodities, keeping investors on edge. File photo

The rupee witnessed high volatility in morning trade on Wednesday (January 22, 2025), as the support from positive domestic equities was weighed down by significant pressure from global uncertainties prompting investors to take the cautious path.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.56, and fell to a low of 86.71 against the greenback in a highly volatile morning session.

Forex traders said the overall uncertainty about the global economy continued to weigh on both currencies and commodities, keeping investors on edge.

On Tuesday, the rupee fell 13 paise to 86.58 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.07 per cent at 108.13.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.09 per cent to USD 79.36 per barrel.

Domestically, the Indian markets faced significant pressure from global uncertainties, and foreign investors sold more than USD 7 billion during this month pressuring the rupee and Indian markets, CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

“However, there is a silver lining ahead with better budget allocations and a decline in crude oil prices may provide much-needed support to the rupee. However, with the Union Budget around the corner, market volatility is likely to persist as traders remain cautious,” Mr. Pabari said.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee dropped 11 paise to 85.75 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday (January 2, 2025), weighed down by the significant uptrend in the dollar index and US 10-year bond yields.

Forex traders said the dollar gained against most currencies during the year 2024 and continued to remain on a strong footing this year. Moreover, persistent foreign fund outflows further dented investors’ sentiments.

Additionally, global markets are expected to see low volumes as the holiday season is underway in major economies like the UK and Europe.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 85.69 then fell further to 85.75 against the American currency, registering a fall of 11 paise over its previous close.

On the New Year day on Wednesday, the rupee settled flat at 85.64 against the US dollar.

On December 27, the local currency touched its lifetime intraday low of 85.80 against the greenback.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 108.32, down 0.15 per cent. The US dollar index has stayed well supported, consolidating around 108 mark over the last few sessions.

Trump’s policies closely watched

The market will keep its focus on Donald Trump’s policies which could boost growth but could also increase price pressures and this would keep the US FED on a hold for longer on interest rate cuts, Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said.

“The range for the day is expected between 85.50/80. A close watch on the liquidity position should be made as premiums in near-term remain on the higher side,” Mr. Bhansali noted.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was quoted 0.44 per cent higher at USD 74.97 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 270.48 points or 0.34 per cent up at 78,777.89 points in morning trade, while Nifty was higher by 85.15 points or 0.36 per cent to 23,828.05 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded ₹1,782.71 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, the total gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue grew 7.3 per cent to ₹1.77 lakh crore in December as compared to ₹1.65 lakh crore in the same month a year ago.

In November, GST mop-up was ₹1.82 lakh crore with 8.5 per cent annual growth. The highest-ever collection was in April 2024 at over ₹2.10 lakh crore.

The Indian Rupee logo. Representational image.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee dropped 1 paisa to 84.92 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday (December 18, 2024) and hovered around its all-time low level, as traders await more cues from the US FED on the interest rate front.

Forex traders said dollar demand from importers and foreign banks and a muted trend in domestic equities further dented investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.92 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee revisited its all-time low closing level of 84.91 against the US dollar.

The rupee remains under pressure from both global and local factors. On the global front, the ripple effects of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated slowdown in rate cuts for 2025 have been felt in India, as evidenced by a correction of over 1 per cent in Indian equities, CR Forex Advisors’ MD-Amit Pabari said.

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Tuesday, weighed down by an across-the-board selloff amid cautious investors’ approach ahead of the US Fed interest rate decision.

Domestically, the rising trade deficit added strain on the rupee. This increase in trade deficit was driven largely by record-high gold imports in November, Pabari noted.

India’s exports in November contracted 4.85 per cent year-on-year to USD 32.11 billion, while the trade deficit widened to an all-time high of USD 37.84 billion due to a record surge in gold imports.

The country’s gold imports in November reached a record high of USD 14.86 billion, registering a four-fold increase, mainly on account of festival and wedding demands, according to commerce ministry data.

Gold imports stood at USD 3.44 billion in November 2023.

“The USD/INR pair is expected to trade within a range of 84.50 to 85.00 in the near-term,” Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.03 per cent at 106.92.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.03 per cent to USD 73.21 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 84.38 points or 0.10 per cent down at 80,600.07 points in morning trade, while Nifty was down 23.40 points or 0.10 per cent to 24,312.60 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded Rs 6,409.86 crore in the capital markets on net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

Rupee opened on a flat note and rose just 3 paise from its all-time low level to 84.47 against the US dollar in morning trade on Friday (November 22 2024), as the support of positive domestic equities was negated by geopolitical pressures and unabated foreign portfolio outflows.

The US dollar strengthened in the overseas market and Brent oil continued to move up as fighting between Ukraine and Russia continued to gain investors’ attention.

Moreover, foreign institutional investors have continued their equities selling mode and kept the dollar well bid.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.48 and moved in a tight range and touched 84.47 against the greenback, registering a gain of just 3 paise over its previous close.

On Thursday, the rupee depreciated 8 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.50 against the US dollar.

“The Indian rupee made a new low on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed it to fall as the US dollar index moved higher to 107.10 and US yields continued to remain at 4.42 per cent,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Bhansali further added that the rupee has depreciated 0.5 per cent in November it has managed to outperform most Asian currencies as RBI managed it with its huge reserves.

“The REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) for October-24 rose to 107.21 from 105.34 in September -24 indicating the rupee was overvalued against a basket of 40 currencies and therefore RBI will allow it to depreciate slowly,” he said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.06 per cent at 107.03.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged by 0.23 per cent to USD 74.40 per barrel in futures trade.

CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said, domestically, the rupee faced additional turbulence after the US District Court in New York indicted Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani and several senior executives in a multi-billion-dollar bribery and fraud scandal.

 At the interbank foreign exchange, rupee opened at 82.90 on Feb. 28, and then inched up to trade at the previous day’s closing level of 82.89 against the greenback.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee turned flat at 82.89 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, February 28, 2024, resisting pressure amid unabated outflow of foreign funds and increased month-end demand of the American currency.

According to forex analysts, crude oil prices hovering above USD 83 per barrel also weighed on the domestic currency, however, positive equity markets provided cushion and capped a steep fall in the rupee.

Investors were also awaiting cues from US GDP data to be released later in the day and domestic GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers later this week, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local currency opened at 82.90 and then inched up to trade at the previous day’s closing level of 82.89 against the greenback.

On Tuesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 82.89 against the US dollar.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.09 per cent higher at 103.92.

Gaurang Somaiya, forex and bullion analyst Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the dollar index traded neutral against its peers after the US data showed the consumer confidence index for February dropped lower than anticipated.

Also, the data on durable goods orders revealed a contraction.

“Currently, Fed watch tool suggests that market participants are pricing rate cuts to begin no time before June, and the upcoming core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index tomorrow and GDP figures today will be heavily watched for,” he said, adding that the USD-INR (Spot) is expected to trade “sideways and quote in the range of 82.80-83.20”.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.49 per cent lower at USD 83.24 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 17.46 points or 0.02 per cent higher at 73,112.68 points.

The broader NSE Nifty rose 10.10 points or 0.05 per cent to 22,208.45 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday as they sold shares worth ₹1,509.16 crore on a net basis, according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 3 paise to 83.27 against the US dollar in the morning session on Wednesday, November 1, 2023 tracking a strong American currency overseas and muted trend in domestic equities.

Persistent foreign fund outflows also weighed on the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 83.26 against the dollar. It touched a low of 83.27 in initial deals, registering a fall of 3 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday, the rupee settled at 83.24 against the American currency.

In October, the USD/INR pair exhibited an unusual trend, with the lowest monthly intraday trading range observed recently. For most of the month, except for a few sessions, the interbank rate remained close to 83.25, varying just by one or two paise above or below, CR Forex Advisors MD-Amit Pabari said.

This apparent stability stands out, given the backdrop of significant global events, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, a strong US Dollar Index (US DXY), and elevated US 10-year bond yields, among others.

“It’s essential to remember that lower volatility often signals a contrary opinion, indicating the potential for increased volatility in the near future,” Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 106.70, higher by 0.04 per cent.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures declined 0.05 per cent to USD 87.41 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, BSE Sensex was trading 64.82 points or 0.10 per cent lower at 63,810.11 points, while the broader NSE Nifty declined 5.30 points or 0.03 per cent to 19,074.30 points.

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on Tuesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹696.02 crore, according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, the growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a four-month low of 8.1 per cent in September 2023 against 8.3 per cent a year ago, according to the official data released on Tuesday.

The central government’s fiscal deficit touched 39.3 per cent of the full-year target in the first half of the current financial year, slightly higher than 37.3 per cent recorded in the year-ago period.