Rupee rises 3 paise to 88.69 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (September 29, 2025), tracking positive Asian currencies and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading in a tight range as it remains under pressure influenced by continued capital outflows and geo-political developments.

Moreover, the RBI policy meeting outcome on October 1, is expected to influence the rupee and government bond movements.

At the interbank foreign exchange market the rupee opened at 88.69 against the U.S. dollar, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous close. On Friday (September 26, 2025), the rupee rebounded from its all-time low to close 4 paise higher at 88.72 against the U.S. dollar.

The rupee fell to a fresh lifetime low of 88.76 against the American currency on Thursday (September 25, 2025).

“The RBI may intervene to keep rupee within the 88.80 level as market watchers closely monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs and external capital flows on the currency,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 97.94, lower by 0.21%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.58 per cent lower at $69.72 per barrel in futures trade.

Forex traders said persistent foreign fund outflows and risk-off sentiment prevented a sharp rise in the domestic unit, while hopes of a breakthrough on the US tariff front weighed on investor sentiments.

On the domestic equity market front, equity markets rebounded in early trade with Sensex climbing 255.46 points to 80,681.92 and Nifty rising 89.05 points to 24,743.75.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹5,687.58 crore on Friday (September 26, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced the imposition of a 100 per cent tariff on branded or patented drugs entering the U.S. from October 1, except for pharmaceutical companies building manufacturing plants in the U.S.

The exemption covers projects where construction has started, including sites that have broken ground or are under construction.

India’s forex reserves dropped by $396 million to $702.57 billion for the week ended September 19, according to the RBI data.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had jumped by $4.698 billion to $702.966 billion.

The rupee rose 10 paise to 87.59 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (August 28, 2025), supported by a weaker dollar index and easing Brent crude prices.

Besides, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in to protect the local unit from crossing its all-time low, further supporting the local unit, according to forex traders.

However, FII outflows and weaker domestic equity markets prevented sharper gains in the local unit as an additional 25% U.S. tariffs on Indian products kicked in on Wednesday (August 27, 2025).

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.56 against the greenback before slipping to 87.59, registering a gain of 10 paise from its previous close.

The rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at 87.69 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (August 26, 2025).

Equity and forex markets remained closed on Wednesday (August 27, 2025) on account of Ganesh Chaturthi.

“The rupee opened higher as the Reserve Bank of India again protected the rupee from crossing its all-time low by selling dollars at 87.80 on Tuesday. Exporters are expected to sell dollars at 87.80 for hedging, while importers may buy the same on all dips for near-term imports payments,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

A range of 87-88 continues with a glimmer of chance of the rupee moving to 86.50 in the medium term, he said.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.76%t lower at $67.53 per barrel in futures trade.

“Brent oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday (August 28, 2025) after U.S. data showed a lower-than-expected drop in crude inventories, while investors weighed the impact of additional U.S. tariffs against India,” Bhansali said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.16 per cent to 98.07.

“The dollar index fell as US President Donald Trump’s unprecedented move to fire FED Governor Lisa Cook renewed concerns over the Central Bank’s independence,” Bhansali added.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex tanked 508.16 points to 80,278.38 in early trade, while the Nifty was down 157.35 points to 24,554.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 6,516.49 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated 19 paise to 87.20 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (August 19, 2025), reflecting the optimism around domestic reforms and equities, though external risks remain elevated.

Forex traders said the rupee is holding firm at current levels, tracking the recent rally in domestic equities after sweeping tax reforms announced by PM Narendra Modi.

Moreover, suspected RBI intervention and cautious optimism around the Ukraine-Russia conflict supported investors’ sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 87.24 against the U.S. dollar, then touched 87.20, registering a gain of 19 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (August 18, 2025), the rupee appreciated 20 paise to close at 87.39 against the U.S. dollar.

Rupee opened on a positive note as FPIs returned in a small way back to buying Indian equities after various steps for growth announced by PM Narendra Modi, including changes in the GST regime, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“Rupee is expected to trade in a range of 87.20 to 87.60 during the day,” Bhansali added.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will attend a crucial meeting of a State ministerial panel on August 20 to put forth the Centre’s proposal for sweeping GST reforms that will slash tax rates and lead to reduction in prices of common use items.

However, the rupee’s next moves may be shaped more directly by US trade policy. US President Donald Trump’s additional 25 per cent tariffs on Indian goods are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, August 27, CR Forex Advisors MD – Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.44 per cent at USD 66.31 per barrel in futures trade, after talks between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained inconclusive in the wake of the recent Russian-US summit on Friday.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was higher by 0.05%t at 98.21, as U.S. President Trump hosted talks on ending the war in Ukraine and traders pared bets on a September rate cut before a speech by FED Reserve Chief Jerome Powell at this week’s Jackson Hole Meeting.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 203.44 points to 81,477.19 in early trade, while the Nifty was up 53.4 points to 24,930.35.

Foreign Institutional Investors bought equities worth Rs 550.85 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 87.50 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (August 11, 2025), tracking a weak American currency, as investors await cues from the upcoming talks between Russia and the U.S.

Forex traders said the Indian rupee opened with small gains on Monday (August 11, 2025) and is expected to remain within a range of 87.25/87.80 while markets are in a wait-and-watch mode for the U.S. and India CPI inflation and the U.S.-Russia talks on August 15.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 87.56 against the U.S. dollar, then touched an initial high of 87.50, higher by 8 paise over its previous close.

On Friday (August 8, 2025), the rupee pared its intra-day losses and ended flat at 87.58 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.48% to $66.27 per barrel in futures trade.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.11% to 98.07.

Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP said the U.S.-Russia talks on August 15 could solve India’s problem of additional 25 bps tariffs by the U.S. if a ceasefire happens between the two nations.

India on Saturday (August 9, 2025) welcomed the summit talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the Ukraine war, and reaffirmed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s consistent position that it is not an “era of war”.

India has been consistently calling for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

“Meanwhile, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) protects weakness in the rupee by selling dollars, exporters may sell their near-term receivables and importers may buy cash/weekly positions at the lows for the day,” Bhansali said.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped by $9.322 billion to $688.871 billion for the week ended August 1 in one of the highest declines in the recent past, the RBI data showed on Friday (August 8, 2025).

The overall reserves rose by $2.703 billion to $698.192 billion in the previous reporting week.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex climbed 104.84 points to 79,962.63 in early trade, while the Nifty was trading up 55.85 points to 24,419.15.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers after several days and purchased equities worth ₹1,932.81 crore on Friday (August 8, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated 9 paise to 86.43 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday (July 28, 2025), tracking a softer greenback, though the upside for the local unit was limited as US-India tariff negotiations remained in focus.

Forex traders said the rupee was trading in a narrow range as the demand for dollar from importers continued to keep the American unit well bid against the rupee.

Moreover, the support from developing trade agreements was negated by the sustained foreign fund outflows, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened on a positive note and touched 86.43 against the greenback in initial deals, higher by 9 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee declined 12 paise to settle at 86.52 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.03% to 97.61.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, went up by 0.48% to $68.77 per barrel in futures trade, supported by developing trade agreements.

Brent oil prices edged up from three week lows in Asian trading to $68 per barrel after E.U. and U.S. reached a trade agreement that eased tariff concerns and boosted future energy demands, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

The investors are now watching developments from FED which begins its two-day policy meeting from Tuesday (July 29, 2025), Mr. Bhansali said.

“The Indian rupee is expected to be steady near 86.47 after the European deal was done but India is still away from a conclusive deal,” Mr. Bhansali said, adding that the month-end demand may keep the rupee stable.

Meanwhile, in the domestic equity market, Sensex declined 67.43 points or 0.08% to 81,395.66, while Nifty fell 14.25 points or 0.06% to 24,851.25.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,979.96 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex kitty declined by $1.183 billion to $695.489 billion during the week ended July 18, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous week, the overall kitty had dropped by $3.064 billion to $696.672 billion. The reserves had touched an all-time high of $704.885 billion at end-September 2024.