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| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee pared its initial losses and settled for the day on an almost flat note at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 4, resisting pressure from elevated crude oil prices.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels, and significant foreign fund inflows supported the rupee and restricted the fall.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.48 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 1 paisa lower than its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee settled 1 paisa lower at 83.49 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on softness in the US dollar amid weak economic data and rise in risk appetite in global markets,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, elevated crude oil prices may limit the gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report tomorrow,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that $-₹ spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.80.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 105.24.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% lower at $86.93 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, Sensex breached the historic 80,000-mark and Nifty scaled a fresh lifetime high. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 62.87 points, or 0.08%, up at its all-time high of 80,049.67 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 15.65 points, or 0.06%, higher at a fresh peak of 24,302.15 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, according to an official of S&P Global Ratings, a sovereign rating upgrade for India in the next 24 months is possible if the central government is able to prudently manage its finances and bring down the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP.

S&P Global Ratings Director, Sovereign Ratings, YeeFarn Phua, said the trigger for an upgrade would be the government (Centre + states) deficit falling below 7 per cent of the GDP, and a lot of this would have to be driven by the central government.

The rupee depreciated 6 paise to settle at 83.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a strong greenback in the overseas market and elevated global crude oil prices.

Besides, a muted trend in domestic equities and foreign fund outflows dented investor sentiments, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.51 and hit the intraday high of 83.47 and a low of 83.56 against the American currency during the session.

It finally settled at 83.50 (provisional) against the dollar, 6 paise lower than its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee depreciated 10 paise to settle at 83.44 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as the strength in the U.S. Dollar and surge in crude oil prices may keep the rupee under downside pressure,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhary further said the overall positive trend in the domestic markets and expectations of fresh foreign inflows may support the rupee at lower levels. Traders may take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and JOLTS job openings data from the U.S.

“USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹83.75,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.09% higher at 105.99.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.76% higher at $87.26 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 34.74 points, or 0.04%, to close at a new peak of 79,441.45 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 18.10 points, or 0.07%, lower at 24,123.85 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹426.03 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated 8 paise to 83.37 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 28, supported by a positive trend in domestic equities and foreign fund inflows.

Forex traders said the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices weighed on the local unit and restricted the appreciation bias.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.42 and gained further ground to trade at 83.37 against the greenback in initial deals, registering an increase of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

On Thursday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to settle at 83.45 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.15% at 106.06, ahead of the crucial U.S. inflation reading this evening.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.47% higher at $86.80 per barrel, as fears of supply disruptions from Russia and the Middle East on continued war offset slowing demand.

On Thursday, there were good inflows taking the rupee higher from Wednesday’s closing level, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

“Inflows are expected on Friday as well, it being the month-end and quarter-end and could take the rupee higher towards 83.35. Exporters may wait to sell while importers may buy the dips,” Mr. Bhansali added.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 347.48 points, or 0.44%, to 79,590.66 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 114.55 points, or 114.55%, to 24,159.05 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they purchased shares worth ₹7,658.77 crore, according to exchange data.

Reports of selling of dollars by state-run banks also supported the rupee.  File
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee appreciated 13 paise to settle at 83.42 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, buoyed by fresh inflow of foreign capital and a firm trend in domestic equity markets, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks.

Forex traders said reports of dollar selling by public sector banks supported the Indian currency. However, higher crude oil prices capped the gains in the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.52 and hit the intraday high of 83.39 against the greenback during the session.

It finally settled at 83.42 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a gain of 13 paise from its previous close.

On Friday, the rupee had settled 1 paisa lower at 83.55 against the U.S. dollar.

Forex markets were closed on Monday on account of Bakri Id.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the rupee gained as domestic markets hit new all-time highs and amid fresh foreign fund inflows.

“Reports of selling of dollars by state-run banks also supported the rupee. However, a positive tone in the U.S. dollar and surge in crude oil prices capped sharp gains,” he said, adding, “USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.10 to ₹83.70.” Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.06, higher by 0.12%.

According to analysts, the U.S. dollar gained after hawkish comments by officials of the U.S. Federal Reserve, while market participants were awaiting further cues from retail sales and industrial production data from the U.S.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.33% to $83.97 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 308.37 points, or 0.40%, to close at a new peak of 77,301.14 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 92.30 points, or 0.39%, higher to close at an all-time high of 23,557.90 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,175.86 crore, according to exchange data.

Analysts attributed the strong investor sentiment to the firm domestic macroeconomic outlook.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India’s growth forecast for current fiscal to 7.2%, from 7% projected in March, citing a recovery in consumer spending and increased investment.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.307 billion to a new all-time high of $655.817 billion for the week ended June 7, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday.

The kitty had jumped $4.837 billion to $651.51 billion in the previous reporting week.

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled for the day lower by 7 paise at 83.55 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday even as both the domestic equity benchmark indices touched all-time high levels.

Forex traders said rupee was seen resilient against the dollar, even after volatility witnessed in the dollar index, due to CPI data and U.S. Fed’s policy decision.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.52 and finally settled for the day lower by 7 paise at 83.55 (provisional) against the American currency.

On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated 11 paise to close at 83.48 against the U.S. dollar.

“Rupee traded sideways in a range of 83.52-83.57 with stability. Even after volatility witnessed in the dollar index, due to CPI data and Fed’s policy decision, the rupee was seen resilient against the dollar.”

“Now the trend in rupee will remain range bound but underlying tone remains weak as rupee consolidation continues near all-time low. Major fall in dollar below $103 only will give strong rupee buying above 83.00 till then 83.20-83.75 approx range will be seen,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.81, higher by 0.17%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.84% to $81.91 per barrel.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, India’s industrial production growth slipped to 3-month low of 5% in April 2024, mainly due to poor show by the manufacturing sector, though mining and power segments performed well, according to official data.

Meanwhile, retail inflation continued its downward slide to reach a one-year low of 4.75% in May due to a marginal decline of prices in the food basket and remained within the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone of below 6%, according to government data released on Wednesday.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 204.33 points, or 0.27%, to close at a new peak of 76,810.90 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 75.95 points or 0.33% higher at a record level of 23,398.90 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they purchased shares worth ₹426.63 crore, according to exchange data.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.56. 
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Rupee appreciated 3 paise to close at 83.56 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, on positive domestic market, wherein benchmark sensitive index Nifty touched a fresh all-time high.

Forex traders said rupee is trading in a narrow range as all eyes are on the U.S. May CPI print and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision on the global front and India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the domestic front.

Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices weighed on the local unit and restricted the upmove.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.56. During the trading session, the rupee touched an intraday high of 83.51 and a low of 83.56. It finally settled for the day at 83.56 (provisional) against the greenback, registering an increase of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Tuesday, the rupee settled for the day lower by 9 paise at 83.59 against the U.S. dollar.

The Indian rupee appreciated on positive domestic markets. Nifty touched a fresh all-time high. However, a positive U.S. dollar and surge in crude oil prices capped sharp gains, said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias as U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen amid expectations of a no change in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.”

“However, investors would watch out for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for cues on rate cut. Traders may take cues from India’s CPI and IIP data. Traders may also take cues from CPI data from the U.S. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.20 to ₹84,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.20, lower by 0.03%. The U.S. dollar gained on expectations of further delay in first interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.11% to $82.83 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 149.98 points, or 0.20%, to close at 76,606.57 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 58.10 points, or 0.25%, higher to settle at an all-time high of 23,322.95 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, selling shares worth ₹111.04 crore, according to exchange data.

Image used for representational purpose only.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee depreciated 10 paise to 83.50 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on June 10, largely due to the rise in the dollar index and US yields.

Forex traders said uncertainty among market players was down as Narendra Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister on Sunday for a record-equalling third term. However, the strength of the American currency in the international market weighed on the local unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.48 and lost further ground to trade at 83.50 against the greenback, registering a loss of 10 paise from its previous closing level.

On Friday, the rupee appreciated 13 paise to 83.40 against the U.S. dollar.

According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, the rupee opened at 83.50 largely due to the rise in the dollar index and U.S. yields.

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should be present protecting the rupee as existing policies of the government will continue with largely the same cabinet as in Modi-2.0,” Mr. Bhansali said.

PM Modi will be heading a 72-member Union Council of Ministers putting emphasis on continuity, youth and experience, while also rewarding partners in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government.

Along with PM Modi, senior BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman and S. Jaishankar, all ministers in the Modi 2.0 Cabinet, took oath as Cabinet ministers at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.18, higher by 0.29%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.31% to $79.87 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, both benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, scaled record high levels in initial trade. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 292.08 points, or 0.38% higher at 76,985.44 points. The broader NSE Nifty was trading at 23,291.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,391.02 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped $4.837 billion to a new all-time high of $651.51 billion for the week ended May 31, the RBI said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped $2.027 billion to $646.673 billion.

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| Photo Credit: Getty Images/iStockphoto

The rupee tumbled 45 paise to close at 83.59 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday as the ruling BJP is unlikely to muster an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha elections.

Besides, a massive sell-off in domestic equities and a strong greenback against major currencies overseas added to the gloom, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.25 and oscillated between a high of 83.23 and a low of 83.59 against the greenback during the session.

The domestic currency finally closed at 83.59 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a fall of 45 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee closed at 83.14 against the US dollar.

“The rupee depreciated…today as domestic markets fell sharply amid uncertainty over election results outcome. This may have also led to some sell-off by foreign investors. The US dollar recovered from yesterday’s losses on the weak Euro, which fell on disappointing employment data. The US dollar fell on Monday on weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending,” Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.17 per cent higher at 104.25.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, dropped 1.88 per cent to USD 76.89 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex crashed 4,389.73 points, or 5.74 per cent, to close at 72,079.05. The broader NSE Nifty tumbled 1,379.40 points or 5.93 per cent to 21,884.50.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Monday as they purchased shares worth Rs 6,850.76 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 23,451.26 crore and sold equities worth Rs 16,600.50 crore in the cash segment.

The rupee plunged 26 paise to 83.40 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday as initial counting for the Lok Sabha elections indicated a mixed trend.

A weak trend in domestic equity markets also dented sentiments in early deals, forex traders said.

According to television reports, the BJP-led NDA surged ahead with leads in more than 200 parliamentary seats out of 350 for which trends were available, with the opposition INDIA bloc ahead in 120.

Counting of votes for the Lok Sabha elections began on Tuesday morning across states and Union Territories.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.25 and lost further ground to trade at 83.40 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a fall of 26 paise from its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee closed at 83.14 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05% lower at 104.02.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.61% to $77.88 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty tanked in early trade as initial counting for the Lok Sabha polls showed a mixed trend.

The 30-share index dropped 1,715.78 points to 74,753 in early trade. The NSE Nifty tumbled 539.1 points to 22,724.80.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities on Monday as they purchased shares worth ₹6,850.76 crore on a net basis. FIIs bought shares worth ₹23,451.26 crore and sold equities worth ₹16,600.50 crore in the cash segment.

Image used for representational purpose.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 3 paise to 83.10 against the U.S. dollar on May 28, tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and weakness of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders rupee is likely to trade with a positive bias tracking a positive trend in domestic equities and expectations of fresh foreign inflows, however, a recovery in crude oil prices may cap a sharp upside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.14 and gained further ground to trade at 83.10 against the greenback, registering a gain of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled for the day lower by 3 paise at 83.13 against the U.S. dollar.

The opening for the rupee on Tuesday was flattish and the $/₹ pair should move within a narrow range of 83.00 to 83.20, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Importers need to keep buying in dips, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may possibly not allow a big move downside for the pair, Mr. Bhansali added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.42, lower by 0.12%.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.24% to $83.30 per barrel.

Going ahead, “the performance of Indian equities is expected to be a significant driver for the rupee, especially as investors position themselves ahead of the Lok Sabha election results scheduled for June 4,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

Given these factors, the rupee is expected to appreciate to around 82.80–82.50 in the near term, with medium-term projections ranging between 82.20 and 82.00, Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 124.2 points, or 0.16% higher at 75,514.70 points. The broader NSE Nifty rose 47.95 points or 0.21% to 22,980.40 points in initial trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹541.22 crore, according to exchange data.