The rupee weakened further and closed at a record low of 96.35 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (May 18, 2026), pressured by rising crude oil prices on the back of ongoing geopolitical tensions and a strong dollar.

Forex traders said the global market sentiments continue to dampen amid simmering tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Moreover, emerging market economies, including India, continue to feel the pressure of rising crude oil prices, as elevated rates increase the outflows of U.S. dollars, along with the outflows already happening due to FPIs, traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.19, then fell further to 96.39 against the U.S. dollar, registering a fall of 58 paise from its previous close.

At the end of Monday’s trading session, the rupee was quoted at 96.35 (provisional), down 54 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (May 15, 2026), the rupee crashed below the 96/USD mark before closing at an all-time low of 95.81 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias amid a strong dollar and rising U.S. treasury yields. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and FII outflows may also pressure the rupee. However, any intervention by the RBI and certain restrictions on the import of gold and silver may support the rupee at lower levels. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 96 to 96.60,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Commodities Research, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.14, lower by 0.14% due to simmering Iran tensions.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 0.65% at $109.97 per barrel in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors remained net buyers for the second straight session, purchasing equities worth Rs 1,329.17 crore on Friday (May 15, 2026), according to exchange data.

India’s forex reserves jumped $6.295 billion to $696.988 billion during the week ended May 8, the Reserve Bank said on Friday (May 15, 2026). Overall reserves had dropped by $7.794 billion to $690.693 billion in the previous reporting week.

Meanwhile, within days of levying high customs duties on precious metals, the government on Saturday (May 16, 2026) imposed import curbs on silver by putting the metal under a licensed regime for inbound shipments.

The government, on May 13, hiked import duty on precious metals — gold and silver — from 6% to 15%. The effective duty (including 3% IGST) is over 18%.

It was hiked to control the outflow of forex by curbing non-essential imports.

The rupee depreciated 14 paise to close near its all-time low at 94.82 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (April 29, 2026), pressured by rising Brent crude oil prices, hovering around $115 per barrel, and continued foreign capital outflows.

Forex traders said the elevated crude oil price is likely to sharply impact India’s import costs, while the ongoing West Asia crisis and concerns over potential wider conflict are fuelling investor anxiety.

Also, analysts said that investors were awaiting cues from the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision.

Moreover, heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) selling so far this year further dented investor sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.79 against the U.S. dollar, then lost ground and touched an intraday low of 94.86 against the U.S. dollar, and finally settled for the day at 94.82 (provisional), registering a fall of 14 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday (April 28, 2026), the rupee depreciated by 53 paise to close at 94.68 against the U.S. dollar.

The rupee’s all-time low closing level of 94.85 versus the U.S. dollar was recorded on March 27 this year.

The rupee continued to trade weakly, as sustained FII outflows and elevated crude prices near $114 (Brent) kept pressure on the currency. Higher oil prices are significantly increasing India’s import bill and inflation risks, limiting any meaningful recovery in the rupee.

“The trend remains weak, with the currency consistently facing selling pressure on rebounds, indicating a lack of strong support at higher levels. In the near term, 94.40 is likely to act as resistance, while 95.25 remains the next key support, with the rupee expected to stay volatile and driven by crude and capital flows,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.08% at 98.72.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 3.13% at $114.74 per barrel in futures trade.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday (April 28, 2026) it will leave OPEC effective May 1, in a major blow to the global oil cartel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex jumped 609.45 points to settle at 77,496.36, while the Nifty climbed 181.95 points to 24,177.65.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,103.74 crore on Tuesday (April 28, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s industrial production growth decelerated to a five-month low of 4.1% in March on account of subdued manufacturing growth and almost flat expansion in the power sector amid the West Asia crisis, according to official data released on Tuesday (April 28, 2026).

The factory output, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), expanded by 3.9% in March 2025, an official statement said.

The rupee stayed on the recovery path and gained 11 paise to 89.05 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (November 25, 2025), supported by lower crude oil prices in the international market.

The Indian currency, however, remained under pressure due to a strong greenback, subdued stock market sentiment and withdrawal of foreign capital, Forex analysts said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 89.02 and then traded at 89.05 against the greenback in initial deals, up 11 paise from its previous closing level.

The rupee settled sharply higher by 50 paise at 89.16 against the greenback on Monday (November 24, 2025), a day after crashing 98 paise to touch its lifetime low of 89.66 against the U.S. dollar on Friday (November 21, 2025).

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was higher by 0.06% at 100.13.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.33% to $63.16 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex declined 46.99 points to 84,853.72 in early trade while Nifty slipped 10.35 points to 25,949.15.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹4,171.75 crore on a net basis on Monday (November 24, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 6 paise to settle at 88.71 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar in a muted session on Monday (November 10, 2025), weighed down by elevated crude oil prices.

However, positive domestic equity markets and a soft U.S. dollar cushioned the rupee’s downside, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.64 against the American currency and touched an intraday high of 88.64 and a low of 88.71 against the greenback during the day.

The domestic unit finally settled for the day at 88.71 (provisional), lower by 6 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (November 7, 2025), the rupee slipped 2 paise to 88.65 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on rising global markets and a surge in crude oil prices. Importers’ demand for the U.S. dollar may also put pressure on the rupee. However, any weakening of the U.S. dollar amid concerns over the long-term health of the U.S. economy may support the rupee at lower levels. Markets may remain volatile as the U.S. government shutdown nears an end. The USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 88.50 to 89,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.04% to 99.55.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.01% to $64.27 per barrel in futures trading.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex climbed 319.07 points to settle at 83,535.35, while the Nifty gained 82.05 points to 25,574.35.

Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth ₹4,581.34 crore on Friday (November 7, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves dropped $5.623 billion to $689.733 billion for the week ended October 31, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday (November 7, 2025).

The overall reserves had declined by $6.925 billion to $695.355 billion.

The rupee depreciated 9 paise to 88.77 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (October 14, 2025) weighed down by the broad strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said the optimism surrounding the India-U.S. trade talks was negated by foreign fund outflows amid a risk-off tone globally.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India is monitoring the depreciation of the USD-INR pair towards 88.80, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.73, and slipped to 88.77 against the greenback, registering a fall of 9 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (October 13, 2025), the rupee appreciated 4 paise to close at 88.68 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.07% to 99.19.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.36% to $63.55 per barrel in futures trading.

“The trade tariffs are the only point which is hurting investors for now, while an Indian trade team is in the U.S. to continue and finalise the trade talks,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

A team of senior officials from India will visit the U.S. this week for trade talks, and negotiations on the proposed bilateral trade agreement are progressing well, a top official said on Monday (October 13, 2025).

In February this year, leaders of the two countries directed officials to negotiate a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

It was planned to conclude the first tranche of the pact by the fall (October-November) of 2025.

So far, five rounds of negotiations have been completed.

Mr. Bhansali further said that the rupee’s cautious appreciation and technical positioning near key levels like 88.80 and 88.50 suggest a finely balanced market.

“RBI moves and global trade developments will be crucial in USD-INR direction,” Mr. Bhansali said.

Meanwhile, Domestic equity markets witnessed a rebound in early trade with the Sensex climbing 246.32 points to 82,573.37, while Nifty rose 83 points to 25,310.35.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹240.10 crore on Monday (October 13, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated 14 paise to 86.93 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (August 21, 2025), on positive domestic equities and a rise in risk-on sentiments.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading with a positive bias on a rise in risk appetite in the global markets amid hopes of peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Moreover, investors are awaiting cues on the geopolitical front as well as the U.S. FED stance on interest rates.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.04, then touched an early high of 86.93, registering a gain of 14 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday (August 20, 2025), the rupee settled on a higher note at 87.07 against the U.S. dollar.

“The rupee may remain cautious, pressured by Fed-driven dollar strength and FII outflows, but supported by easing India-China tension. If the rupee breaches 86.95, it could move toward 86.80 level, while a break above the 87.10 resistance may open the way for a pullback toward the 87.40 level,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

India and China have reached a new understanding on the management and control of the frontier during Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday (August 20).

Mr. Wang visited New Delhi on August 18 and 19, during which he held extensive talks with NSA Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Summing up the outcome of Mr. Wang’s visit, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a media briefing that the two sides also agreed on resuming dialogue mechanisms in various fields, deepening mutually beneficial cooperation, upholding multilateralism, jointly dealing with global challenges and opposing unilateral bullying acts.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.08% to 98.30.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.37% higher to $67.09 per barrel in futures trade, as investors remained focused on the Ukraine peace push with a bigger-than-expected weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories and sanctions on Russia remaining in place for now.

Traders are focussed on whether U.S. Fed Chief Jerome Powell will push back against market expectations for a rate cut on the September 16-17 meeting when he speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday (August 22).

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex climbed 373.33 points to 82,231.17 in early trade, while the Nifty was up 94.3 points to 25,144.85.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,100.09 crore on Wednesday (August 20), according to exchange data.