The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher. File
| Photo Credit: RAGHUNATHAN S.R.

The rupee recovered from its all-time low level and appreciated 6 paise to close at 84.44 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (November 22, 2024), supported by positive domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading in a narrow range as the U.S. dollar strengthened in the overseas market and Brent oil continued to move up as fighting between Ukraine and Russia continued to gain investors’ attention.

Moreover, foreign institutional investors have continued their equities selling mode and kept the dollar well bid.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.48 and touched an intraday low of 84.50 against the greenback. The unit ended the session at 84.44 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a rise of 6 paise over its previous close.

On Thursday (November 21, 2024), the rupee depreciated 8 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.50 against the U.S. dollar.

“Geopolitical tensions, portfolio outflows, and rallying U.S. Dollar Index are likely to keep the domestic currency under pressure, though the RBI’s intervention is leading to a gradual and orderly decline,” Praveen Singh, Associate VP, Fundamental Currencies and Commodities, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas said.

“The USD/INR pair is expected to rise to ₹85 eventually and support is at ₹84.25,” Mr. Singh said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.50% at 107.50.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 0.31% to $74.46 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,961.32 points, or 2.54%, to close at 79,117.11 points, while Nifty surged 557.35 points, or 2.39%, to settle at 23,907.25 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday (November 21, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,320.68 crore, according to exchange data.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, increased by 0.27% to reach 100.79. File
| Photo Credit: Nagara Gopal

The rupee stayed in a narrow range and settled 3 paise lower at 83.82 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (October 1, 2024) amid subdued equity markets, unabated outflow of foreign funds and strengthening American currency.

However, crude oil prices sliding to near $70 per barrel helped the local unit resist a steep fall, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.81 and moved between the low of 83.83 and high of 83.80 against the greenback during the session.

The unit finally settled at 83.82 (provisional), registering a loss of 3 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday (September 30, 2024), the rupee settled 10 paise lower at 83.79 against the American currency.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the rupee declined on weak domestic markets and disappointing macroeconomic data.

“A recovery in U.S. dollar also weighed on the domestic unit. However, weak crude oil prices cushioned the downside,” he said, adding that the FII outflows may also weigh on the domestic unit.

“Traders may take cues from ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data from the U.S. Investors may watch out for non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. this week. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.65 to ₹84,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.27% to 100.79.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 1.70% to 70.48 in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex fell 33.49 points, or 0.04%, to settle at 84,266.29, while the Nifty slipped 13.95 points, or 0.05% to close the session at 25,796.90.

A monthly survey released on Tuesday (October 1, 2024) showed India’s manufacturing sector growth fell to an eight-month low in September amid softer increase in factory production, sales and new export orders.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in August to 56.5 in September, registering the weakest pace of growth since January.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday (September 30, 2024), offloading shares worth ₹9,791.93 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, official data released on Monday (September 30, 2024) showed that the government’s fiscal deficit – the gap between expenditure and revenue – at the end of the first five months of the current financial year touched 27% of the full-year target.

Also, the Reserve Bank of India data on Monday (September 30, 2024) revealed the country’s current account deficit widened marginally to $9.7 billion or 1.1% of GDP in April-June 2024, as against $8.9 billion or 1% in the year-ago period.

The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors also entered a negative zone after three-and-a-half years, contracting 1.8% in August 2024 due to a decline in output of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, cement and electricity, according to another official data released on Monday (September 30, 2024).

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened slightly weak at 83.66 against the American currency. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee depreciated by 6 paise to settle at 83.64 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (September 26, 2024), dragged by sustained foreign fund outflows.

“However, a decline in global crude prices and a firm trend in domestic equities restricted the rupee losses,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened slightly weak at 83.66 against the American currency. During the session, it dropped 13 paise to touch 83.71.

However, the local unit recovered some lost ground to settle at 83.64, a decline of 6 paise against its previous close.

On Tuesday (September 24, 2024), the rupee closed at 83.58 against the American currency.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex climbed 666.25 points to settle at an all-time high of 85,836.12, while the Nifty rallied 211.90 points to hit a record of 26,216.05.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.14% to 100.48.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 1.51% to 72.35 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday (September 25, 2024), offloading shares worth ₹973.94 crore, according to exchange data.

The rupee trimmed its initial gains against the U.S. currency but was still quoted higher by 120 paise to 67.60 per dollar on Thursday.
| Photo Credit: Raghunathan S. R.

The rupee depreciated 11 paise to close at 83.65 (provisional) against the American currency, weighed down by a muted trend in domestic equities and rising crude oil prices.

The Indian rupee opened higher on Tuesday (September 24, 2024) as domestic equities touched fresh record highs. However, the rupee lost early gains and closed in the red and domestic equity markets also followed suit and closed in the negative territory.

Forex traders said a surge in crude oil prices weighed on the rupee, while the U.S. Dollar weakened as China announced fresh stimulus to boost its economy.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.54 against the American currency and finally settled at 83.65 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, down 11 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (September 23, 2024), the rupee pared its early gains to close lower by 2 paise at 83.54 against the U.S. currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias amid improved global risk appetite following China’s stimulus and softness in the dollar. However, elevated crude oil and other commodity prices may cap sharp upside,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Mr. Choudhury further said traders may take cues from U.S. CB consumer confidence data and speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. “USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.45 to ₹83.85,” he said.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex declined 14.57 points, or 0.02%, to settle at 84,914 points, while the Nifty rose 1.35 points, or 0.01%, to close at 25,940.40 points.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell marginally by 0.05% to 100.79.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 2.42% to 75.69 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday (September 23, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹404.42 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday (September 24, 2024) retained India’s growth forecast at 6.8% for the current fiscal year and said it expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review.

In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal year at 6.9% and said solid growth in India would allow the RBI to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The rupee witnessed range-bound trade and settled for the day higher by 4 paise at 83.88 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Monday (September 16, 2024) supported by weak American currency and significant foreign fund inflows, while firm crude oil prices capped sharp gains.

Forex traders said market participants are eagerly awaiting cues from the U.S. Fed policy on Wednesday (September 11, 2024), with a rate cut all but certain. However, the magnitude of the cut remains uncertain.

Moreover, the rupee continues to hold steady within a well-defined range on active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), they added.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.89 and witnessed an intraday high of 83.87 and a low of 83.90 against the American currency.

The domestic unit finally settled for the day at 83.88 (provisional), higher by 4 paise over its previous close, amid a positive trend in domestic equities.

On Friday (September 13, 2024), the local unit settled higher by 4 paise at 83.92 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the Indian rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on continued weakness in the U.S. dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting this week,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Choudhary further said that “there are broad expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed following a 25 bps rate cut by ECB last week. Fresh foreign inflows and a positive tone in equity markets may further support the domestic currency. However, a recovery in crude oil prices may cap sharp upside.”

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.39% to 100.72 points.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.56% to USD 72.01 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 97.84 points, or 0.12%, to close at 82,988.78 points, while the Nifty rose 27.25 points, or 0.11%, to 25,383.75 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday (September 13, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹2,364.82 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped USD 5.248 billion to a new all-time high of USD 689.235 billion for the week ended September 6, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday (September 13, 2024).

The overall kitty had jumped by USD 2.299 billion to a record USD 683.987 billion for the previous reporting week.

The rupee in tandem with Asian currencies fell to its support zone of 83.97 as the Reserve Bank of India seemed to present at 83.97 to protect against any further weakness in the currency. File
| Photo Credit: Venkatachalapathy C.

The rupee declined 5 paise to 83.96 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (September 3, 2024), tracking a strong greenback against major currencies overseas and a sluggish trend in domestic equities.

However, lower crude oil prices in international markets capped the decline in the local unit, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened 3 paise lower at 83.94 against the American currency and traded in the range of 83.94-83.98 during the day.

It finally settled at 83.96 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, 5 paise lower than its previous close.

On Monday (September 2, 2024), the domestic currency settled at 83.91.

“The rupee in tandem with Asian currencies fell to its support zone of 83.97 as the Reserve Bank of India seemed to present at 83.97 to protect against any further weakness in the currency. There was a good amount of FPI and oil companies outflow which resulted in the rupee reaching near to the all-time low of 83.97,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director of Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

Meanwhile, Sensex recovered most of its losses to settle at 82,555.44 for the day, 4.40 points below its previous close, while the Nifty inched up 1.15 points to 25,279.85.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.15% at 101.80.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, declined 2.1% to 76.26 in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday(September 2, 2024), as they purchased shares worth ₹1,735.46 crore, according to exchange data.

A customer holds a hundred rupees Indian currency notes near a roadside currency exchange stall in New Delhi, India, May 24, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The rupee depreciated 3 paise to close at 83.96 (provisional) against the American currency on Wednesday (August 28, 2024), amidst strong dollar demand from importers, particularly oil companies.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, foreign fund inflows and overnight decline in crude oil prices cushioned the downside.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.94 and touched an intra-day low of 83.97 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.96 (provisional), 3 paise lower from its previous close.

On Tuesday (August 27, 2024), the rupee depreciated by 6 paise to close at 83.93 against the American currency.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on recovery in the US dollar and month-end dollar demand from oil marketing companies (OMCs) and importers,” said Anuj Choudhary— Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Choudhary further noted that a rise in global risk sentiments amid a dovish Fed speech and rising expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in September may support the rupee.

“Traders may remain cautious ahead of U.S. GDP and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data from the U.S. this week.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.36% higher at 100.91.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.93% to $78.81 per barrel.

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: R. Ragu

The rupee traded in a narrow range and settled lower by 4 paise at 83.94 (provisional) against the American currency on Thursday, as relentless dollar demand from importers and relentless foreign fund outflows dampened investor sentiments.

However, a positive trend in domestic equities and lower global crude oil prices supported the domestic currency and restricted its fall, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened weak at 83.93 and touched an intraday low of 83.97 against the U.S. dollar.

The domestic currency finally settled at 83.94 (provisional), 4 paise lower from its previous close.

On Wednesday, the rupee fell 13 paise to 83.90 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on outflows by foreign investors and demand for the greenback by importers. However, a positive tone in the domestic markets and declining global crude oil prices may support the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Traders will now take cues from the weekly unemployment claims, existing home sales and PMI data from the U.S..

“Investors may remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium for any cues on rate cuts by the central bank. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.75 to ₹84.20,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.19% higher at 101.23.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.38 per cent to USD 76.34 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex advanced 147.89 points, or 0.18%, to close at 81,053.19 points. The Nifty rose 41.30 points, or 0.17%, to 24,811.50 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹799.74 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes revealed that most officials are inclined towards a rate cut in September, and this has put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and offered some support to the rupee.

Traders will now focus on cues from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks could set the tone for global currency markets.