The rupee rebounded 49 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.37 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (May 21, 2026) after crude oil prices retreated from elevated levels amid signs of easing geopolitical friction, alongside likely central bank intervention.

Forex traders said the rupee had gained after the recent geopolitical developments, but investors are still gauging the geopolitical risk and oil price sensitivity in the background.

The one-year forward market rate for the rupee touched the crucial 100/USD mark on Wednesday (May 20, 2026), indicating that currency markets are pricing in a weakening bias for the USD/INR pair over the next 12 months, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.25 against the dollar, then touched an early high of 96.05 and a low of 96.60 in intraday trade. At the end of Thursday’s trading session, the rupee was quoted at 96.37, up 49 paise from its previous closing.

On Wednesday, the rupee hit a record low of 96.95 and later closed at 96.86, which was also a new closing low.

“This recovery follows a retracement in crude oil prices amid tentative signs of easing geopolitical friction, alongside active central bank intervention. Moving forward, investor focus will remain anchored on geopolitical developments and the upcoming RBI monetary policy review,” said Dilip Parmar, research analyst, HDFC Securities.

Mr. Parmar further added that from a technical standpoint, spot USDINR is finding firm support at 95.74, while immediate resistance remains capped at 96.50.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.30, up 0.22%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 0.75% at $104.23 per barrel in futures trade.

“Rupee has been in the midst of a rapid and dramatic depreciation streak, falling by over 6 per cent in CY26 against the dollar and touching successive record lows,” a report authored by Radhika Rao, senior economist and Philip Wee, senior FX strategist at DBS Bank, said.

“We have lifted our USD/INR forecasts into a 95-100 range for the rest of 2026,” It added.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 135.03 points to settle at 75,183.36, while the Nifty settled on a flat note at 23,654.70. Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,597.35 crore on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data.

The rupee hit the psychological 90-a-dollar level in intraday trade before settling 42 paise down at an all-time low of 89.95 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (December 2, 2025), largely owing to continued short-covering from speculators and sustained importer demand for the American currency.

Forex traders said multiple pressures, like foreign fund outflows from equities and lingering uncertainty over the Indo-U.S. trade deal, are keeping investor sentiment fragile.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 89.70, then lost its ground and fell to a record intraday low of 90.00 against the U.S. dollar, down 47 paise over its previous close.

At the end of trade on Tuesday, the rupee settled at a record low of 89.95 (provisional) against the greenback, down 42 paise over its previous close.

On Monday (December 1, 2025), the rupee depreciated by eight paise to close at 89.53 against the U.S. dollar.

“The 90 level is a major psychological barrier— and a cluster of buy-stop orders likely sits above it. This is precisely why the RBI must remain active below 90; if the pair starts sustaining above this zone, the market could quickly shift into a higher trending phase toward 91.00 or even higher,” said Anindya Banerjee, head commodity and currency, Kotak Securities.

At this stage, it is essential for the central bank to prevent speculators from becoming too comfortable with a one-way trend, as that can trigger an unnecessary spike in USD-INR volatility, Ms. Banerjee added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06% higher at 99.41.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.25% lower at $63.03 per barrel in futures trade.

From a technical perspective, the key support level was 88.80–89.00, immediate resistance at 90.00 and the next major hurdle is at 91.00. “A decisive daily close above 90 may embolden momentum traders and invite fresh speculative flows,” Ms. Banerjee said.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex tanked 503.63 points to settle at 85,138.27, while the Nifty dropped 143.55 points to 26,032.20.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹1,171.31 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.

The rupee appreciated eight paise to close at 88.21 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (October 29, 2025), on strong domestic markets and optimism over the trade deal between India and the U.S.

Forex traders said upbeat market sentiment, driven by trade deal optimism and easing crude oil prices, enthused investor sentiment, even as importer demand for dollars capped sharp gains.

Moreover, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting decision.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.21, and later traded in a range of 88.15 to 88.35 during the day. The local unit finally settled at 88.21 (provisional) against the greenback, registering a gain of 8 paise from its previous close.

On Tuesday (October 28, 2025), the rupee depreciated by 10 paise to close at 88.29 against the U.S. dollar.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on positive domestic markets and weak crude oil prices. Upbeat market sentiments over trade deal optimism may further support the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, research analyst, currency and commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said, “I’m doing a trade deal with India.” However, month-end dollar demand from importers may cap sharp gains. Investors may remain cautious ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting decision. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 87.85 to 88.60, Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.21% to 98.87.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.22% to $65.54 per barrel in futures trading.

On the domestic equity markets front, Sensex climbed 368.97 points to settle at 84,997.13, while Nifty gained 117.70 points to 26,053.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹10,339.80 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s industrial production growth remained steady at 4% in September this year, driven by the manufacturing sector’s strong performance, buoyed by GST rationalisation and festive demand, according to official data released on Tuesday.

Factory output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), expanded by 3.2% in September 2024.

The rupee depreciated 12 paise to revisit its all-time low of 88.80 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (October 14, 2025), weighed down by negative domestic equities and overnight gains in the American currency.

Forex traders said foreign fund outflows amid a risk-off mode globally further dented investor sentiment.

However, a decline in crude oil prices and reports of RBI intervention supported the local unit and restricted the slide.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.73 against the greenback and fell to an intraday low of 88.81 and a high of 88.73. It finally closed the day at 88.80 against the greenback, registering a decline of 12 paise over its previous close of 88.68.

On September 30, the rupee had fallen to an all-time low of 88.80 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.10% higher at 99.36.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 2.15% at $61.99 per barrel in futures trade.

According to some experts, U.S.-India trade tariffs are the only point which is hurting investors’ sentiments.

A team of senior officials from India will visit the U.S. this week for trade talks, and negotiations on the proposed bilateral trade agreement are progressing well, a top official said on Monday (October 13, 2025).

In February this year, leaders of the two countries directed officials to negotiate a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).

It was planned to conclude the first tranche of the pact by the fall (October-November) of 2025.

So far, five rounds of negotiations have been completed.

“A weak tone in global crude oil prices and FII inflows may favour the rupee. The U.S. government shutdown and rising odds of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve may further weigh on the U.S. Dollar. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 88.50 to 89,” said Anuj Choudhary, research analyst, currency and commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

On the domestic macroeconomic data front, India’s CPI inflation cooled off to an 8-year low at 1.54% in September against 2.07% in August. It fell below the RBI inflation target of 2%.

WPI inflation too cooled off to 0.13% in September compared to 0.52% in August.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex dropped 297.07 points to close at 82,029.98, while the Nifty declined 81.85 points to 25,145.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹240.10 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.

The rupee fell 4 paise to close at 88.78 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday (October 7, 2025), weighed down by a strong American currency overseas and unabated foreign capital outflows.

The domestic currency traded in a tight range as investors preferred to remain on the sidelines amid uncertainties over global trade, forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened with a marginal gain at 88.72 against the U.S. dollar and touched the intra-day low of 88.79 and a high of 88.79 before ending the session at 88.78 (provisional), registering a loss of 4 paise from its previous closing level.

On Monday (October 6, 2025), the rupee gained 5 paise to settle at 88.74 against the U.S. dollar.

Investors moved cautiously after the U.S. Senate once again rejected both Democratic and Republican proposals to fund the government, prolonging the government shutdown into its sixth day.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, increased 0.34% to 98.13.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.37% lower at $65.25 per barrel in futures trading.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday (October 7, 2025) said India and the U.S. are in continuous dialogue on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, and all possibilities are there to meet the November deadline for concluding the talks.

Mr. Goyal’s comment came a day after External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said that any trade deal between India and the U.S. must respect New Delhi’s “red lines”, and efforts are underway to reach an understanding.

According to Mr. Jaishankar, there were “issues” between India and the U.S., and many of them were linked to the inability to firm up the proposed trade deal, even as he noted that “there are things you can negotiate and there are things you can’t”.

In the domestic equity markets, Sensex climbed 136.63 points or 0.17% to settle at 81,926.75, while Nifty went up 30.65 points or 0.12% to 25,108.30.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹313.77 crore on a net basis on Monday (October 6, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee rebounded from its all-time low to close 4 paise higher at 88.72 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (September 26, 2025), tracking a weak greenback against major currencies overseas and a drop in global crude oil prices.

Unabated foreign capital outflows and risk-off sentiment in the domestic equity market prevented a sharp rise in the local unit, while hopes of a breakthrough in the India-U.S. trade talks supported the domestic currency, according to forex traders.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.72 and traded in a narrow range of 88.67-88.73 before settling at 88.72 (provisional), 4 paise higher than its previous close.

The rupee had slipped 1 paisa to close at a fresh lifetime low of 88.76 against the American currency on Thursday (September 25, 2025).

“The Reserve Bank of India seems to have intervened heavily in the morning, allowing an opening of 88.68 for the rupee…Tariffs have been responsible for the constant fall in indices and rupee with Trump imposing 100% tariffs on pharma, furniture and trucks,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

Meanwhile, India and the U.S. have decided to continue their engagements to achieve an early conclusion of a mutually beneficial trade pact, according to the Commerce Ministry.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led a delegation of officials to the U.S. for the three-day trade talks earlier this week.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.19% lower at 98.37.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.39% higher at $69.15 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex tanked 733.22 points to settle at 80,426.46, while Nifty was down 236.15 points to 24,654.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹4,995.42 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.