Reproductive rights activists demonstrate in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Monday. File photo
| Photo Credit: AFP

,

In the upcoming US presidential election, the issue of abortion rights is emerging as a significant factor that is influencing Indian American women’s voting preferences.

This demographic group, which is a part of the second-largest immigrant community in the United States, is showing a strong inclination towards supporting candidates who advocate for reproductive rights.

Meeta Damani, an Indian American documentary filmmaker living in the New Jersey area, has been working in the community with a particular focus on women and children.

“It is a crucial issue for both men and women in the Indian American community as well. It is interconnected like if there is a woman and the child is going to be born unhealthy, that is going to affect the entire family. At the end of the day, it is about freedom and one’s choice. I feel the women voters will make their voice very clear,” she said.

Looking at the clarity of thought on this subject among Indian American women, it is not a surprise that abortion and reproductive rights have become a top-tier policy issue in the 2024 election cycle.

Priya, a marketing professional, is also a vocal member of the Indian American diaspora in the New Jersey region. She feels that this shouldn’t even have been an issue.

“Who would have thought that after coming to a first world country like America, abortion rights would even be an issue for women. If it is my body, it should be my choice. As simple as that. As women voters, if you have the opportunity to support a party that wants to keep your rights intact you will absolutely do that,” she said.

In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. The ruling ended the constitutional right to abortion, allowing states to ban or restrict abortion access. There were subsequent restrictive abortion laws in various states.

The potential for further limitations on reproductive rights is making it an important issue in the country among women. The majority of the public disapproved of the decision. Many Democratic-led states have taken action to protect abortion rights, and some have become sanctuaries for people seeking care out of state.

Supreet, an IT professional, says that women have been impacted by this in many ways. She also thinks many employers in the US had to find ways to mitigate the challenges that the women workers faced.

“The good part is that a lot of employers are coming up with policies that support women. So even if the company is in a state where it is illegal, they are giving them the means to go to other states. The good part is that corporate America is supportive of women but the government may or may not be. That is why it is important to look at it seriously. I definitely feel the women voters will support the party that is pro-abortion,” Supreet said.

The Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) conducted a nationally representative online survey of Indian American citizens between September 18 and October 15. It has identified a new, striking gender gap in voting preferences.

According to the survey, 67 per cent of Indian American women intend to vote for Kamala Harris while 53 per cent of men, a significantly smaller share, say they plan to vote for Harris.

When further disaggregated by age, this gender gap appears starkest with younger voters. In the cohort above the age of 40, more than 70 per cent of women and 60 per cent of men plan to vote for Harris.

Sonal Sharma, an immigration lawyer working with a lot of Indian American population, has a word of caution to offer. She feels that while women do feel strongly about the abortion issue, it is not the only thing that matters to others.

“It is a complex issue, despite abortion being so sensitive the polls are 50-50 divided. So, one can see it is not the only issue important to people. We however saw in states where the legislature tried to bring more strict abortion laws, those were rejected. We will have to see what happens,” she said.

The importance of abortion rights for Indian American women has not gone unnoticed by political campaigns. Harris has made abortion rights a central part of her campaign strategy and reproductive rights advocacy groups are actively engaging Indian American voters.

In the United States, there are more than 5.2 million people of Indian origin today. It is the second-largest immigrant group in the United States and has emerged as an important political actor. Women form a very significant subset of this unit and as the election draws near, the abortion rights issue is likely to remain a key factor in mobilising and influencing this important demographic.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are so far apart that only a continental drift can bring them closer. It is not just that one is African-American and the other White. Or that one is a woman and the other is a man. Or that Kamala Harris is a Californian and Donald Trump a New Yorker. More significantly, Kamala Harris’s campaign is leveraged on a diminishing statistic while Mr. Trump’s is set on an ascending one.

The two campaigns

Abortion rights are topmost on Ms. Harris’s to-do list, but how pressing is that? The rate of abortion has fallen steadily in the United States since the 1970s when the verdict in Roe vs Wade was passed. Legalising abortion did not result in more abortions, as some of the opponents to the judgment feared. Nor was there a dramatic increase in abortion clinics.

While abortion rates are falling, immigration, which is Mr. Trump’s cause, is rising. The immigration acts of 1965 and 1990 allowed Latin Americans and Asians in and, since then, the bulk of U.S. migrants have been Mexicans. There is a sharp rise too in unauthorised migrants who, today, comprise about 25% of foreign-born people in the U.S.

Between 1981 and 2021, abortion rates fell in the U.S. from 29.3 per 1,000 women in the 15-44 year age range to 11.6 abortions per 1,000 women. The fall is not because some States have put restrictions on abortion but rather on account of highly effective contraceptive methods, such as the intrauterine device. Also, more women seek careers now rather than raising children.

To then peg an election campaign primarily on abortion does not resonate with women the way it used to in the 1970s. No doubt, abortions still happen, often forcing women to travel, under duress, from their home State, which restricts abortion, to another where it is allowed. This can result in fatalities, but not at an overwhelming rate. Paradoxically, women beyond the child-bearing age are very committed to bringing abortion rights back simply because they fought for it in the 1970s. It was a great advance then not only because unwanted pregnancies were high but also because single parents could now pay greater attention to child rearing than child bearing.

The tirade against migrants

In contrast to the pre-1965 profile where most migrants were White, today about 50% of immigrants to the US are from Latin America, and as much as a quarter from Mexico alone. This probably explains why Mr. Trump’s tirade against migrants from south of the border is so appealing. There are so many of them and they all look so different.

In 2022, about 10.6 million immigrants (or 23% of all immigrants in the U.S.) were Mexicans. Next were those from India (6%) and China (5%). Though 77% of immigrants are in the U.S. legally, about 25%, mostly Mexicans, are unauthorised. This was not so till 1968 when primarily Europeans and the British could enter the U.S.

Donald Trump’s grandfather was an immigrant from Germany and got in easily. Yet, he hid this ancestry for, in those days, Germans were looked down upon, much like the Mexicans are today. However, time and skin colour have erased that memory, and their descendants, like Donald Trump, have low tolerance for latter day Latin America migrants.

Editorial | Neck and neck: On the U.S. presidential election

As the presence of migrants is combustible, all of them are clubbed together for the authorised ones are not bodily stamped. Fighting for the cause of migrants then becomes a huge altruistic effort for they cannot fight for themselves. It is home advantage for those who rally behind the “Make America Great Again” banner.

This is also the reason why Mr. Trump does not have a full cast of celebrities on stage with him. His cause needs no translation into everyday tongue. Any attempt to undermine the huge presence of unauthorised migrants will be met instantly with hostility and disbelief. Unsurprisingly, Ms. Harris tends to wander when confronted with this issue.

As abortion rights actively matter to fewer women today, Democrats are forced to frame this demand in terms of rights and that always needs explanation. As Ms. Harris readily cedes ground on this if religious leaders intervene, the moral ownership of that right is vastly weakened. When law and morality clash, morality usually wins.

That is why Ms. Harris is usually part of an elaborate ensemble in public with entertainers such as Bruce Springsteen, Usher, Lizzie, and now even Beyoncé. Barack Obama is also pushing for her onstage, and so has Michelle Obama. In the medley, one is likely to lose sight of the lead actor, Kamala Harris herself; she gets lost in the crowd.

In totality

The polls say it is an even fight but Ms. Harris’s camp is working much harder as a lot of their trek is uphill. Mr. Trump, in contrast, is on cruise control and travels light. He is the star of the show — an entertainer and political leader in one handy wrap. If he has somebody else on stage, that will be a side order. Nobody eclipses him when his show comes on.

In recent memory, the contrasting styles of the finalists has never been so stark. This is all because of the cause each one promotes. Ms. Harris’s case is loaded with itsy-bitsy, fading numbers that need a regimen of grey cells to arrange. Mr. Trump’s appeal has a gut feel that requires little explanation. He sets your heart thumping, so your brain can rest.

Somewhere along the line, by intuition or by luck, Mr. Trump has mastered the art of keeping it simple, even if it seems stupid. That is politics.

Dipankar Gupta is a retired professor of sociology, Jawaharlal Nehru University