As world leaders gathered in Munich, Germany, for Europe’s top annual security conference, placating, pleasing, and managing US President Donald Trump stood as a top agenda. Trump’s phone call to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s disruptive speech challenging Europe, and, by association, the very nature of trans-Atlantic alliances, and demands to end the Ukraine conflict, has led to a mad rush to host such a process, in the Gulf. The question that perhaps comes immediately to mind, even though the conflict in Gaza remains a major global flashpoint, is, why?

The Meeting Between Rubio And Lavrov

Russia and the US are preparing to start initial consultations on Ukraine following an ice-breaking meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh. For Saudi Arabia and its powerful heir-apparent, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, this is a moment of both regional and global reckoning. Gulf powers in the Middle East have now been for a while re-positioning and re-posturing their geopolitics. This process started much before Trump’s return to the White House—arguably, prior to even the Russian war against Ukraine. The roots of this shift lie in two main realities. First, a change in the construct of global power contestation, that is, a bi-polar competition between the US and China and a demand for multipolarity by a host of middle powers looking to secure their own interests and not get caught in the Washington-Beijing dynamics. The second reality relates to a general idea of the US becoming increasingly unwilling to mobilise militarily power to protect its allies.

Reconsidering America’s Role

Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are evaluating the very fundamentals of the decades-long American hegemony, which has provided security blankets in the region. This also provides them with an opportunity to build their own geopolitical repertoire as middle powers with their own agency, instead of being viewed as client states, a tag that has plagued many of them for decades. The UAE as well has thrown its hat into the ring, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy landed in Abu Dhabi, mere hours after both Russia and the US eluded to excluding Kyiv from talks regarding Ukraine’s own future (Zelenskyy later cancelled a planned visit to Saudi). While this position by the Trump administration delivered tremors across European capitals, it has also played into an increasingly constrained space between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi for regional influence. And peace diplomacy, or mediation, is the flavour of the day.

However, the proverbial gold-rush to host Ukraine talks has more solid foundations in regional competition than an international one. For long, Oman has been the state that has consistently pitched itself as the main mediator, playing the role of ‘Switzerland of the Middle East’, where Muscat seemingly prioritises neutrality and offers a common ground for warring parties, such as Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi militia, or even the US and Iran, to talk.

The Qatar Question

Saudi Arabia and the UAE installed a blockade against Qatar between 2017 and 2021 for what they saw as Doha not aligning and punching above its weight, and, more specifically, for its support for Political Islam. But the Qatari leadership had another trick up its sleeve to ratchet its power quotient. In February 2020, under Trump’s first tenure, the Taliban in Afghanistan and the US signed a historic agreement for the latter’s exit from a two-decade long war in the country. Doha hosted the political office for the Taliban, and managed Kabul, to deliver this outcome to a president who, more than anything else, adores deals. This “success” gained Qatar the title of becoming America’s first and preferred ‘major non-NATO ally’ in the region. Today, Qatar also hosts America’s largest military base in the Middle East. For others, such as the UAE, the meteoric rise of Qatar’s influence in Washington was seen as a challenge. Within Abu Dhabi, questions were raised with Emirati diplomats in the US on why the Taliban’s office was not hosted in either Abu Dhabi or Dubai.

Saudi And UAE Have Bigger Goals

For Saudi Arabia, despite its functional relations with Russia and China alike, a security relationship with the US remains paramount. The same strategic aim is consistent for the UAE as well, one of the few Arab states that normalised relations with Israel as part of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords and which continues to have functional relations with Iran. Despite continuing pressures on Saudi Arabia and the UAE to help deliver lasting solutions to the Israel-Palestine crisis and the Israel-Hamas war, both have broader, long-term aims with regard to their positions as poles-of-power within a multipolar framework. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi share this world view with the likes of India, but American power projection is infinitely more critical to political structures in the Middle East. This is truer today after the experience of the Arab Spring, and, more recently, the collapse of the Bashar Al Assad regime in Syria at the hands of a self-styled ‘lapsed’ jihadist group, the Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS).

Is This The Future Of Mediation?

The Saudis are not stopping just at giving space to the US and Russia to debate Ukraine. As per reports, Riyadh is also open to hosting talks between Iran and the US over the former’s nuclear programme. The Saudi-Iran détente was achieved in March 2023 with the help of China, the main competitor to the US, and a state that has unreservedly supported Arab positions in Gaza. Beijing, meanwhile, also remains open to mediating and helping to bridge political gaps across the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visits to the region have been welcomed with gusto by Saudi Arabia and the UAE alike, both as a function of being the world’s second-largest economic power and using this position to hedge risk with Western partners. The future of mediation between the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-Doha trifecta is a cat and mouse game within the Arab construct. External powers such as the US, Russia, and China, are part of the utility kit. This push for one-upmanship will have a tremendous impact on regional politics where in the coming years economic and political competition is only expected to increase.

(Kabir Taneja is Deputy Director and Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Saudi Arabia is changing. You have to see it to believe it. The Saudi Arabia with strict gender segregation, tough Islamic laws, and dress codes, no longer exists. It’s a new country that is open, just, welcoming and rising. With Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman’s Vision 2023 as its compass, the kingdom is making great strides and is dropping the shackles of the past, very fast. Roam around Riyadh, the capital, and you see it buzzing with young and aspirational Saudis making the most of the newfound freedoms and opportunities. According to the 2022 census, 63% of Saudis are under the age of 30. And the regime’s policy changes are guided with this key statistic in mind. The biggest beneficiaries of the new openness are the Saudi women, who never had it so good.

Women-Led Transformation

The Kingdom’s inclusive Vision 2030 aims to diversify and strengthen the nation’s economy. According to a World Bank report, Saudi Arabia is now ranked at the top in terms of economic and social progress for women out of 190 economies. The country’s women are now truly in the driver’s seat. The lifting of restrictions on their movement and choices has meant that Saudi women are steering the social, cultural and economic transformation of their country. Till a few years ago, they had to look to their fathers, husbands and brothers for even the basics like permission to travel or work.

With Vision 2030, female workforce participation has gone up to nearly 40% now compared to about 15% a few years ago. This progress is evident in the increasing number of women receiving advanced degrees, enrolling in STEM fields, and owning 40% of small and medium-sized startups. Right from the moment you land in Riyadh, you see women taking up key jobs. From immigration counters to shopping malls to government offices, Saudi women are everywhere. I saw women making presentations at key government events, doing camera work, running stalls at local markets. The presence of women in the workforce has also meant increased intermingling of genders and rewriting of many social norms and gender behaviours. 

Saudi For All

A big focus of Vision 2030 is also the cultural and social integration of all those living and working in Saudi Arabia. The Media Ministry’s Global Harmony project is aimed at enhancing understanding and collaborations between diverse groups that call Saudi home. According to the Saudi Deputy Minister of Media, Dr Khaled Bin Abdulqader al Ghamdi, the Global Harmony project aims to make expats feel more at home. But more than that, it aspires to make local Saudis understand better the various communities that live among them. So, during the Riyadh Season, which starts in September and continues till February-March, you see a host of public cultural and social events to bring communities together.  It’s a true celebration and appreciation of diversity.

Indians Are Special And Loved

Even among the expats, special attention is on Indians, who are the largest expat group in Saudi Arabia. At present, 2.6 million Indians live in the Kingdom, working in the domestic sector as well as private jobs, and running both start-ups as well as big companies. Recognising the role of India, Dr Khaled calls the community “an integral part of the Saudi story”. This year, the Media Ministry dedicated the Suwaidi Park festival exclusively to India. The 10-day festival saw a celebration of Indian culture, food, music and art. People from all communities streamed into the vast Suwaidi Park to savour a slice of India. The Global Harmony project attempts to present Saudi as an inclusive and harmonious society where people from all backgrounds live and celebrate their own cultures, traditions and festivals. And, it’s not some civil society gig. It’s a government policy initiative with clear objectives and plans. That makes it an attempt worth emulating for many countries that are facing social fissures due to their diversity.

Looking Back To The Future

As Saudi strides into modernity, it is also conscious of its history and heritage. It’s encouraging studies and excavations at heritage sites, such as at al Ula, and is promoting its pre-Islamic history too. Nouf Marwaai, a yoga instructor and also a consultant with the Saudi government, gave us a presentation on the historical and social similarities between India and Saudi Arabia. In her talk, she went back to 6000 BCE to trace the Almagar Civilisation.

Clearly, the new Saudi Arabia projects itself as an old civilisation, and not just as a society defined by the advent of Islam 1,400 years ago. That is now portrayed as only an important event, not the sole marker of the civilisational identity. The Kingdom is also promoting its historical sites. The Diriyah town, just outside Riyadh, is one such heritage site that has a UNESCO tag. It was the home of the Saudi royal family and also served as the capital of the Emirate of Diriyah under the first Saudi dynasty from 1744 to 1818. Today, Diriyah is one of the foremost cultural hubs and the centre of many sports and adventure activities in the Kingdom. Even so, its historical character has been maintained all along. On the one hand, you have mega infrastructural projects, new businesses and modern wave sweeping Saudi, and on the other, there is a renewed focus on its over 1,400-year-old history.

Music Connects

Coming back to the India connect: wherever there are Indians, there is music. Indian film music has been a great brand ambassador and unifier across the world. Saudi Arabia is no different. My local support, Abdulwahab al Ghamdi, a young, peppy guy in his late 20s, played Hindi songs for me in the car while we drove around Riyadh. He told me that he and his friends dance to Punjabi numbers at their parties. And how he loved Shah Rukh Khan and Indian film music. He also showed me a video of a Saudi artist singing a popular Hindi film song at a Saudi talent show.

The new Saudi Arabia is truly a surprise, and a pleasant one.

[Mohd Asim is a Senior Editor with NDTV 24X7. He visited Saudi Arabia from October 15 to October 20 on the invite of the Ministry Of Media]

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author