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The global economy is expected to lose about 19% income in the next 25 years due to climate change, with countries least responsible for the problem and having minimum resources to adapt to impacts suffering the most, according to a new study published on Wednesday.

The study by scientists at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said climate impacts could cost the global economy around $38 trillion a year by 2049.

“Our analysis shows climate change will cause massive economic damages within the next 25 years in almost all countries around the world, also in highly developed ones such as Germany, France, and the United States,” said scientist Leonie Wenz who led the study published in the journal Nature.

South Asia to be affected

South Asia and Africa will be strongly affected, said Maximilian Kotz, another researcher.

The researchers looked at detailed weather and economic data from over 1,600 regions globally, covering the last 40 years.

They said global income loss could vary between 11% and 29%, depending on different climate scenarios and uncertainties in the data.

The predicted loss is massive and already about six times more than what it would cost to reduce carbon emissions enough to keep the average temperature rise below two degrees Celsius, the researchers said.

These economic damages are mostly due to rising average temperatures. However, when the researchers also considered other factors like rains and storms, the predicted economic damages increased by about 50 per cent and varied more from one region to another.

Regions closest to equator to be hit

While most regions in the world are expected to suffer economically due to these changes, they said regions near the poles might see some benefits due to less temperature variability.

On the other hand, the hardest-hit regions will likely be those closer to the equator, which historically have contributed less to global emissions and currently have lower incomes.

“Our study highlights the considerable inequity of climate impacts: We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer. Further temperature increases will therefore be most harmful there,” said Anders Levermann, head of Research Department Complexity Science at the Potsdam Institute and co-author of the study.

The countries least responsible for climate change are predicted to suffer income loss that is 60% greater than the higher-income countries and 40% greater than higher-emission countries. They are also the ones with the least resources to adapt to its impacts, he said.

“These near-term damages are a result of our past emissions. We will need more adaptation efforts if we want to avoid at least some of them. We have to cut down our emissions drastically and immediately; if not, economic losses will become even bigger in the second half of the century, amounting to up to 60 per cent of the global average by 2100,” Mr. Wenz said.

“It is on us to decide: structural change towards a renewable energy system is needed for our security and will save us money. Staying on the path we are currently on will lead to catastrophic consequences. The temperature of the planet can only be stabilized if we stop burning oil, gas, and coal,” Mr. Levermann said.

Average temperatures

Global average temperatures have risen by more than 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1850, exacerbating climate impacts, with 2023 being the hottest on record.

The greenhouse gases spewed into the atmosphere, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution, is closely tied to it.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s “State of the Global Climate 2023” report, greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, and sea level rise all reached record highs in 2023.

Climate science says the world needs to slash CO2 emissions by 43% by 2030 to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the guardrail to prevent worsening of climate impacts.

The business-as-usual scenario will take the world to a temperature rise of around three degrees Celsius by the end of the century, scientists have warned.

Rescuers remove mud and debris as they search for people feared trapped after a landslide near a temple on the outskirts of Shimla, Himachal Pradesh state, Monday, August 14, 2023. Heavy monsoon rains triggered floods and landslides in India’s Himalayan region, leaving more than a dozen people dead and many others trapped, officials said Monday.
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Torrential rains that have battered India’s Himalayas in recent years, killing hundreds of people and causing billions of dollars worth of damage, are becoming more intense due to a clash of weather systems triggered by global warming, scientists said.

At least 240 people have died this year in the mountainous region as landslides and flash floods triggered by heavy rains buried homes and destroyed crops and infrastructure.

Seasonal monsoon showers are vital for India’s $3-trillion economy, bringing nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water farms and refill reservoirs and aquifers.

But the monsoon’s convergence with a low-pressure weather system in the Himalayas in recent years has caused extremely heavy rains, something that scientists and officials have blamed on rising temperatures.

Also Read | Himachal Pradesh government declares incessant rain as State calamity

“Think of it as a collision of two forceful systems,” said Kuldeep Srivastava, head of the India Meteorological Department’s regional centre in New Delhi.

“It causes significant rain, or even cloudbursts … we are noticing in the last few years, intense spells of rain lasting short durations,” he said, adding that this was due climate change driven by global increase in temperatures.

The number of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall days per decade in India’s Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh (HP) and neighbouring Uttarakhand increased to 118 between 2011 and 2020 from 74 in the preceding decade, data from the weather office showed.

At least 166 people have died in HP and 74 in Uttarakhand this year since June in landslides, flash floods and other rain-related incidents, according to government data.

Rains battered the two states following the convergence of the monsoon system with Western Disturbances, a weather system that originates in the Mediterranean Sea and moves east, bringing moisture-laden winds that cause winter rain and snow in the Himalayas.

Western Disturbances usually pass north of India’s northern border between the summer and monsoon months of June and October, but, as temperatures rise, some of them move slightly south, said V.P. Dimri, director of the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism.

“Because of sea surface temperature warming, the Western Disturbances have more energy … similarly, general warming of the earth is also leading to change in wind motions,” he added.

Monsoon rainfall patterns across India have seen a climatic shift in the recent decades, said Roxy Mathew Koll, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

“The most significant change is that instead of having moderate rains spread out through the monsoon season, we have long dry periods intermittent with short spells of heavy rains,” Koll said.