“It’s good these people are in jail,” a fruit seller shared his frustration, keeping his shop open despite a lowered shutter in response to the lockdown called on by the separatists. The year was 2019, precisely a month after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government announced the abrogation of Article 370, and “these people” in question were the leaders of Jammu & Kashmir’s regional parties: the Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Five years later, these very people are not just out of jail, but some of them are also set to form the government in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. 

The world can draw an essential lesson from what has transpired in Jammu & Kashmir in the last five years. And this lesson has nothing to do with the polling outcome. Despite the previous unstable assembly (the BJP opted out of the ruling PDP-led coalition), the geopolitical turmoil in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370, and the controversy around delimitation, Jammu & Kashmir chose democracy yet again.

Democracy As A Lived Reality

When an insurgency or an armed conflict continues for too long, democracy is the first to fall. Increased securitisation of a conflict-ridden space undermines democracy not just as a political philosophy concept but also as an everyday lived reality. Political alienation is often the beginning and the end of a conflict. It is also the means and the end of most insurgencies. Secessionists in Jammu & Kashmir, therefore, leaned on boycotts of political processes in the region. These boycotts were successful in forging a sense of identity, delinked from New Delhi, in a section of Jammu & Kashmir’s population.

Jammu & Kashmir’s voter turnout in 2024 has fallen marginally short of 2014. Still, considering the political and security volatility during the past decade, the political remapping of the region, and the trends from the 2024 general election turnout, the absolute figure of 63.88% is a big round of applause for Indian democracy. Not only were the calls for boycotting the elections negligible, but voters also didn’t even think twice before ignoring them. The pre-poll sentiment in Jammu & Kashmir was defined by buoyancy and optimism.

Reigniting Faith

Participation in electoral processes should not be seen as an indicator of peace in Jammu & Kashmir or any other conflict-riddled region. Democracy does not suit all, and efforts to derail it are the strongest whenever it appears to work and emerge as a choice. For peace, the synergy of formal institutions is a prerequisite. The BJP has done well to reignite people’s faith in at least one of them: electoral polity. Jammu & Kashmir, under the governor’s rule for six years, grabbed this chance to assert itself and make its voice heard in New Delhi. The JKNC-Congress alliance has trumped religious extremism-driven parties on the one hand and heavy-handed nationalism on the other.

After almost a decade of aggressive and kinetic strategy in dealing with the hardliners in J&K, this is a perfect moment for the Indian establishment to rethink its attitudes towards conflict resolution. The temptation to discard democracy as a defunct system is at its highest during an armed conflict. But this is also the time when democracy can shine the brightest. A rights-based approach to conflict resolution may appear counter-intuitive, but this is the only lasting solution. The rejection of the right to vote by a dissatisfied bunch of people as a means of their political expression can be the first sign of trouble. The converse is also true.

This Is True ‘Normalcy’

The BJP may not feel warm and fuzzy about the assembly poll results, but New Delhi has all the reasons to rejoice. This is what ‘normalcy’, an oft-touted catchword of the current dispensation, looks and feels like. This almost violence-free election is the festive bonus that everyone hoped for, but nobody could have been sure of it. Reams will be written about the “success” of this election within the security paradigm. However, the real success is allowing the decriers of democracy to come into the fold. After long periods of violence and quasi-violence directed primarily against the Indian state, this election is an affirmation of the core principles of participatory democracy. 

No political system, even the good old democracy, can and should be treated as the panacea for all ills. At best, democracy can achieve an environment where people who are affected by policies feel like stakeholders. This precludes compulsive resistance and fosters a sense of ownership. Jammu & Kashmir’s ‘problem’ is both a function and an origin of political alienation and disempowerment. Increased participation on the population’s part and more open-mindedness on the part of the establishment during political processes help create a secure environment that doesn’t rely solely on securitisation.

What and how Jammu & Kashmir’s political arena will look like with a government in place after six years of Governor’s rule remains to be seen. For now, these lessons of democracy are for all to see and emulate. 

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

The largely peaceful conclusion of the three-phase assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir can be seen, in many ways, as a watershed event in the history of the region, regardless of whether it gives a clear mandate to a party, a pre-poll alliance, or results in a hung assembly.

Let’s explore why these elections should be considered a reference point for analysing the evolving democratic process and the aspirations of the people in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
First, the assembly polls, held after ten years, are the first elections since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A and the first following the delimitation of assembly segments, which was completed in 2022. This is also the first assembly poll since Independence in J&K that has reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, thereby giving a voice to individuals from socially marginalised communities.

No Boycott, No Strikes

More notably, this is the first election in several decades that has been concluded without a boycott call, hartals, or any poll-related violence. And for the first time in 77 years, Hindu refugees from Pakistan, including West Pakistan Refugees (WPR), Valmikis and Gorkhas, voted in the election.

There has been a realisation among all stakeholders that if one aspires to make their voice heard, the only way is to become part of the democratic process. The banned Jamaat-e-Islami fielding its candidates as independents is a testament to this.

Second, if one had listened to the voices of most political parties before August 5, 2019, they would have heard high-pitched rhetoric claiming that the abrogation of the “temporary” Article 370 was the BJP’s pipedream and that it would never be possible for any regime at the Centre-least of all the Modi government-to remove the ‘Special Status’ granted to Jammu and Kashmir under India’s constitutional structure. But on August 5, this rhetoric was put to rest. 

A New Way Of Working

Interestingly, something that was claimed to be synonymous with Kashmir, as well as Kashmiri pride and identity, was not a major pre-poll narrative. While the National Conference, in its manifesto, promised to fight politically for the restoration of Article 370 and the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan, the PDP also spoke about resolving the Kashmir issue and resuming dialogue with Pakistan. However, as the election campaign progressed, it became clear that this was not an issue that could emotionally sway the voters.

Third, the demand for the grant of statehood has emerged as a major campaign issue for the NC-Congress combine, the PDP, and others. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was bifurcated into two Union Territories in August 2019: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. The Centre has subsequently vested several critical executive powers in the Lieutenant Governor. The elected chief minister will now have truncated powers, a position somewhat similar to that of the chief ministers of Delhi and Puducherry. For Jammu & Kashmir leaders, this will be a new experience.

Lessons From The DDC Elections

Fourth, the Panchayat elections of 2014 and the District Development Council (DDC) elections of 2020 introduced a new aspirational political leadership at the grassroots level, which was not necessarily aligned with the three dominant parties: the NC, PDP, and Congress in the Kashmir Valley. Since the Panchayat polls, which were held without party symbols, it has been difficult to discern which party gained or lost on the ground. However, the DDC polls are an effective indicator, as parties contested with their election symbols.

The DDC elections were held a year after the annulment of Article 370 made an improbable scenario possible: arch-rivals NC and PDP came together, along with five other smaller parties, to form the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), popularly known as the Gupkar Alliance. However, the results were surprising. The Gupkar alliance, which was expected to sweep the polls, managed to win only 110 seats out of the total 278. The BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 75 seats, while Independents secured 50. This year’s parliamentary elections shocked former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, both of whom lost.

A Slew Of New Names

In the current assembly elections, a large number of new leaders are trying their luck as independents and candidates from smaller parties. While the outcome cannot be predicted now, their presence has made the electoral process more interesting than ever.

Fifth, the National Conference and Congress, which were considered clear favourites when the election schedule was announced, have somewhat lost that initial momentum amidst the heat and dust of electioneering, at least according to ground reports. The PDP is no longer considered the force it once was. The BJP seems to have gained ground in the Jammu region compared to what was anticipated about a month ago.

The results will be known on October 8, but one cannot rule out a realignment of political parties and groups in the aftermath of the results.

(Sanjay Singh is Consulting Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author