The world is in an age of disruption, whether in politics, economy or technology. In any such era, uncertainty rises. Among nations, there will inevitably be winners and losers. Business as usual or maintaining a status quo may seem like a safe option, but it is not. Only nations that embrace the disruptions and are nimble enough to capture the upside will succeed. What should India do?
Global politics is set for unusual times with Donald Trump helming the US. By all indications, his second term is likely to be more disruptive for the global order, whether on war, multilateral/bilateral economic frameworks or climate change. On his tail, there is Elon Musk, the most disruptive entrepreneur of the age who has now made it his mission to also be a disruptive global political influencer. Both men want to change not just the US but also mould the globe as per their worldview and interests.

The global economy is going through a tough phase. Even India, which is the star of the show, is slowing down. The predominant policy reaction across the world is to abandon the long-held consensus on openness and to look inward. Almost every major economy is strategising some version of self-reliance that doesn’t necessarily mean a complete rejection of the outside world. What it does mean is the need for greater reciprocity in concessions and a preference for politically-aligned partners.

An Uncertain World

At the same time, there is a hugely disruptive industrial revolution underway. The continued rise of AI and other automated technologies is putting a question mark on the future of conventional jobs. It is bringing to the fore new challenges, such as the need to secure supply chains of critical minerals that are the core of emerging technologies.

It is a tough world. But even in uncertainty, there are some certainties that can be leveraged, especially by India. Trump is unlikely to look at India’s high tariff barriers favourably. Nor is Elon Musk. But there lies an opportunity in their interests. Both Trump and Musk would look at India positively as a destination for American investment. And welcoming that would also open a door for greater market access for exports to the US. The best chance for India to make full use of the China-plus-one sentiment for manufacturing is during Trump’s time as president. However, it may require some disruptive policy changes in India, including a reduction in tariffs in some sectors where they are abnormally high. It may also require a drastic simplification of processes and clearances, moving towards self-certification, time-bound clearances and deemed clearances. Complexity and delays are an anathema to foreign investors.

The global economic slowdown affects India’s exports, but it need not be a downside to India’s 8% growth prospects. Again, disruption to business as usual may be required. An immediate loosening of monetary policy by at least 50 basis points and substantial tax relief to the middle class will spur domestic consumption, which has been sluggish for the last few quarters. A rise in demand will hasten the capex plans of corporations and lead to a rise in private investment, which has also been struggling.

The answer to technology disruption and its impact on jobs is not obvious. It will play out over time. But it is clear that the nature of future jobs will involve more, not less skill. In particular, numeracy, basic mathematics and science will be key. India’s school education needs a radical revamp with learning rather than enrolment as the primary goal. The Centre and states must get together to redo pedagogy in order to make the next generation future-ready.

Be Nimble

That said, there will still be more uncertainty in the world than certainties. Not all challenges can be predicted beforehand. In terms of nimbleness in response, there is no comparison between market forces and government. Countries that give a greater play to market forces and entrepreneurship will be more successful than those that put their governments in pole position. That is already evident in the widely divergent economic outcomes in Europe and the US. Europe, much more statist than America, is in real decline. America’s alleged decline makes headlines but is greatly exaggerated. East Asia has done better than South Asia because it has been open to market forces.

In India, the political economy still favours the government over the private sector. The biggest disruption needs to happen here if India is to continue its march to prosperity in a tumultuous and uncertain world.

(The author is Chief Economist, Vedanta)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

The world is in an age of disruption, whether in politics, economy or technology. In any such era, uncertainty rises. Among nations, there will inevitably be winners and losers. Business as usual or maintaining a status quo may seem like a safe option, but it is not. Only nations that embrace the disruptions and are nimble enough to capture the upside will succeed. What should India do?
Global politics is set for unusual times with Donald Trump helming the US. By all indications, his second term is likely to be more disruptive for the global order, whether on war, multilateral/bilateral economic frameworks or climate change. On his tail, there is Elon Musk, the most disruptive entrepreneur of the age who has now made it his mission to also be a disruptive global political influencer. Both men want to change not just the US but also mould the globe as per their worldview and interests.

The global economy is going through a tough phase. Even India, which is the star of the show, is slowing down. The predominant policy reaction across the world is to abandon the long-held consensus on openness and to look inward. Almost every major economy is strategising some version of self-reliance that doesn’t necessarily mean a complete rejection of the outside world. What it does mean is the need for greater reciprocity in concessions and a preference for politically-aligned partners.

An Uncertain World

At the same time, there is a hugely disruptive industrial revolution underway. The continued rise of AI and other automated technologies is putting a question mark on the future of conventional jobs. It is bringing to the fore new challenges, such as the need to secure supply chains of critical minerals that are the core of emerging technologies.

It is a tough world. But even in uncertainty, there are some certainties that can be leveraged, especially by India. Trump is unlikely to look at India’s high tariff barriers favourably. Nor is Elon Musk. But there lies an opportunity in their interests. Both Trump and Musk would look at India positively as a destination for American investment. And welcoming that would also open a door for greater market access for exports to the US. The best chance for India to make full use of the China-plus-one sentiment for manufacturing is during Trump’s time as president. However, it may require some disruptive policy changes in India, including a reduction in tariffs in some sectors where they are abnormally high. It may also require a drastic simplification of processes and clearances, moving towards self-certification, time-bound clearances and deemed clearances. Complexity and delays are an anathema to foreign investors.

The global economic slowdown affects India’s exports, but it need not be a downside to India’s 8% growth prospects. Again, disruption to business as usual may be required. An immediate loosening of monetary policy by at least 50 basis points and substantial tax relief to the middle class will spur domestic consumption, which has been sluggish for the last few quarters. A rise in demand will hasten the capex plans of corporations and lead to a rise in private investment, which has also been struggling.

The answer to technology disruption and its impact on jobs is not obvious. It will play out over time. But it is clear that the nature of future jobs will involve more, not less skill. In particular, numeracy, basic mathematics and science will be key. India’s school education needs a radical revamp with learning rather than enrolment as the primary goal. The Centre and states must get together to redo pedagogy in order to make the next generation future-ready.

Be Nimble

That said, there will still be more uncertainty in the world than certainties. Not all challenges can be predicted beforehand. In terms of nimbleness in response, there is no comparison between market forces and government. Countries that give a greater play to market forces and entrepreneurship will be more successful than those that put their governments in pole position. That is already evident in the widely divergent economic outcomes in Europe and the US. Europe, much more statist than America, is in real decline. America’s alleged decline makes headlines but is greatly exaggerated. East Asia has done better than South Asia because it has been open to market forces.

In India, the political economy still favours the government over the private sector. The biggest disruption needs to happen here if India is to continue its march to prosperity in a tumultuous and uncertain world.

(The author is Chief Economist, Vedanta)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Richmond:

As newly inaugurated President Donald Trump readies his immigration crackdown, his allies in his Republican Party have splintered over policies surrounding US worker visas intended to go to specialty occupations like the tech industry.

The row over so-called H-1B visas is pitting Silicon Valley-aligned Trump allies like X CEO Elon Musk, who favor the program, against opponents like former White House strategist Steve Bannon, many of whom want curbs on overall immigration levels – legal and illegal – with Trump’s return to office.

How have H-1Bs ended up in the fray? Here’s what to know:

What are H-1Bs and how do they differ from other U.S. work visa programs?

The H-1B visa program is reserved for people from other countries who are employed in specialty occupations in the United States, frequently in the technology field.

They can include software engineers, tech program managers and other IT professionals.

People in the United States on H-1Bs can extend beyond an initial six-year time frame – three years plus a three-year extension – if a green card application has been filed.

Under the terms of their visas, workers who are laid off face the prospect of having to leave the country within 60 days unless they can find another job or manage to change their immigration status.

Other work programs include H-2A visas, which are for temporary agricultural workers, and H-2B visas for seasonal non-agricultural workers.

Tahmina Watson, an immigration lawyer based in Seattle, Washington, suggested a new category for a “startup” visa for people who want to come to the country to start new companies.

“The startup visa is something I have advocated for almost two decades,” she said. “I do think our visa system is in desperate need of reform.”

What are Trump allies saying about H-1Bs?

Musk has defended the program and vowed to “go to war” over it after other Trump supporters criticized the president’s appointment of Indian-American entrepreneur Sriram Krishnan as a senior policy advisor for artificial intelligence and argued the H-1B program favors foreign-born workers over Americans.

Musk has had Trump’s ear since the election and is working on the newly constituted Department of Government Efficiency to cut down on spending and perceived waste.

On the other side are people like Bannon, one of the architects of Trump’s 2016 campaign, who has dismissed the H-1B program as a “scam.”

“We’re winning this round, and we’re winning this round pretty big,” Bannon said at a Politico event this month, referring to the H-1B fight. “I think we’ll get Elon there. As soon as I can turn Elon Musk from a techno-futilist to a populist nationalist, we’ll start making real progress.”

Watson said an important takeaway from the national debate is to recognize there is a shortage of talent in the STEM – science, technology, engineering and math – fields that the country needs.

“Recognize and acknowledge that we do not have enough domestic talent that we need, and address both at the same time by allowing skilled immigrants to come in now but also using that policy to mandate that America starts training the next generation,” she said.

What are Trump’s views?

After the initial skirmish, Trump said he favors the program.

“I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program,” he told the New York Post.

Ahead of the inauguration, Trump’s team did not respond to questions about whether he supports the program or plans to push for changes to H-1Bs or other work visa programs.

He sought to restrict them during his first term in office from 2017 to 2021.

Who could be affected by policy changes?

People from India accounted for the vast majority of approved H-1B beneficiaries in 2023, followed by China.

Under the current system, those affected by layoffs in the tech sector can find themselves scrambling to maintain their legal status.

Meta, for example, which has about 72,000 employees, said recently it planned to cut about 5% of its staff.

Watson said people or businesses who depend on H-1Bs might be well-served to tune out the political back-and-forth.

“Do not be deterred by the national rhetoric from using the H-1B if your business needs it,” she said. “I say to a lot of my clients that your business success is your North Star, so do what you need to do.

“For the employees who might be afraid, I’d say if they are working in alignment with their employers, they should not be afraid.”

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

Washington:

President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering replacing Pete Hegseth with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the Pentagon’s head, reports the Wall Street Journal, amid reports and doubts about his current nominee’s personal life.

His views on certain issues may raise concerns. For instance, Hegseth opposes women serving in combat roles, arguing it lowers military standards and effectiveness. “Women shouldn’t be in combat at all. They’re life-givers, not life-takers. I know a lot of wonderful soldiers, female soldiers, who have served, who are great. But they shouldn’t be in my infantry battalion,” he told Ben Shapiro, a conservative political commentator in an interview.

He supports troops accused or convicted of war crimes and has advocated for their pardon. He also wants to fire senior officers who support “woke policies”.

There has been increasing disquiet and scrutiny surrounding Hegseth’s sexual assault allegations and drunken public behavior among senators.

Regardless, Hegseth posted this on X.

I’m doing this for the warfighters, not the warmongers.

The Left is afraid of disrupters and change agents. They are afraid of @realDonaldTrump—and me. So they smear w/ fake, anonymous sources & BS stories. They don’t want truth.

Our warriors never back down, & neither will I. pic.twitter.com/nDQ5aUlv7i

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) December 4, 2024

Not only this but a general sense of misconduct allegations have also been floating for the former Fox News anchor.

According to The New Yorker, Hegseth in an inebriated condition, chanted “Kill All Muslims! Kill All Muslims!” at a Veterans group event in 2015.

However, his attorney Tim Parlatore said, “We’re not going to comment on outlandish claims laundered through The New Yorker by a petty and jealous disgruntled former associate of Mr. Hegseth’s. Get back to us when you try your first attempt at actual journalism”, in response to the allegations by The New Yorker.

In addition to his alleged Islamophobic comments, he has also been shadowed by a secret financial settlement to a woman who accused him of rape in 2017, although he dismissed the claims citing the incident as consensual.

Two veteran non-profit groups – Veterans for Freedom and Concerned Veterans for America have further accused him of multiple allegations including financial mismanagement, sexual impropriety and personal misconduct. He was forced to step down from the organisation because of these concerns.

Hegseth’s former colleague at Fox News said, “He had a kind of what-happens-in-Vegas-stays-in-Vegas kind of attitude, while his wife and kids were in Minnesota. He was a huge drinker. I can’t say if he had a problem, but he was very handsy with women, too. I’ve certainly seen him drunk.”

With the allegations surfacing with the whistleblower report, Senate Republicans are not comfortable supporting his bid as the leader of the Pentagon.
 

Donald Trump’s presidential election victory has brought a cultural reset it seems. US Men’s National Team (USMNT) forward Christian Pulisic was seen celebrating his goal against Jamaica on Monday (Nov 18) by doing the ‘Trump Dance’ – a signature move popularised by the Republican leader during the election campaigning trail. Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) fighter Jon Jones performed a similar move last week after defeating Stipe Miocic by technical knockout, with President-elect Trump present ringside at the Madison Square Garden, alongside his coterie of soon-to-be-inaugurated cabinet leaders.

Netizens have been celebrating the dance move, claiming that it was a significant moment in US history, which had been dominated by identity politics and a rampant cancel culture.

“We have officially taken back the culture. Everyone is doing the Trump dance now,” said one user, while another added: “Trump started a movement with YMCA dance as people love just having fun, except liberals! Lol.”

TRUMP STARTED A MOVEMENT WITH YMCA DANCE AS PEOPLE LOVE JUST HAVING FUN, EXCEPT LIBERALS ! LOL pic.twitter.com/gPJbVCDW7O

— Fritz & Athena Harrod (@bignels2) November 14, 2024

The Trump Dance that’s sweeping the nation is like a refreshing shower after years wallowing in the mud of the woke mind virus. pic.twitter.com/aaQ2cdSmaE

— Eric Sammons (@EricRSammons) November 19, 2024

A third commented: “The Trump dance has gone mega viral as the cultural shift hits full effect. Sports stars in the US and around the world are doing it as a celebration, as is everyone else…even people in China.”

We have officially taken back the culture. Everyone is doing the Trump dance now pic.twitter.com/If4jLFwc1E

— James Jinnette (@james_jinnette1) November 17, 2024

The Trump Dance is everywhere.

Culture belongs to us now. pic.twitter.com/Vr8e4RQlN8

— Vince Dao (@VinceDaoTV) November 17, 2024

Instead of mocking the awkward dance, athletes appear to be dancing in support of Trump who not only won the popular vote but also helped the Republicans win the House and the Senate.

Also read | Do The Donald! Trump Dance Takes US Sport By Storm

What is the ‘Trump Dance’?

The trendy move stems from an awkward mishmash of steps performed by Trump during the election to the tune of YMCA song, produced by the American disco group, Village People.

The influence of Trump Dance has not been limited to the USA. England’s Charley Hull was recently seen performing the move during her final showdown with Nelly Korda at the Annika tournament held at Pelican Golf Club.

The results of the US elections held last week have produced both relief and shock in equal measure.

The world at large and the Americans in particular are relieved that even if the outcome was largely unexpected, it was unambiguous, decisive and uncontested. This belied many foreboding predictions. There was a clear swing towards the hard right, with the Republican Party making major gains. Donald Trump, its candidate, defied all odds to win the Presidency. The Republicans expanded their control of the Senate and are poised for a majority in the House of Representatives as well. Factoring in the right-leaning Supreme Court and Federal Reserve under pressure to ease its ‘tight money’ policy—the GOP has never had it this good for a long time.

A Rude Shock For All

On the other hand, the “winner taking it all” outcome was a rude surprise not only for the defeated Democrats but also for the psephologists and the mainstream media, who predicted a victory for Kamala Harris and a greater countervailing balance in Congress. Few expected a massive popular endorsement of Mr Trump, a populist with controversial views often bordering on unsubstantiated extremism. To many, the outcome raised questions about the maturity of the electorate and fidelity to the electoral process itself. Despite a booming economy, low inflation and low unemployment, the American voter succumbed to clever manipulation of popular perceptions with pet popular peeves about immigration, globalisation and personal economics being weaponised. For many, this was not an outcome the US deserved.

But now that this is a fait accompli, the larger question that needs to be answered is: How will this binary split play out during the incoming Trump Presidency? A lot would depend on whether Trump 2.0 would hark back to Trump 1.0 or whether the experiences of being the 45th President have been internalised for the 47th Presidency. This requires a granular analysis to discern the likely course of Trump 2.0.

An Unapologetic Trump 

To begin with, some basic observations are in order. Firstly, when the 78-year-old person concerned is not only unapologetic but triumphant about his past term, it raises some pertinent issues about his plans for the future in a vastly different context. Most of the catchy electoral promises made by candidate Trump were bare-bone intentions without precise targets. Similarly, many of the policy priorities articulated during the campaign intersect domestic and foreign affairs. Some of the planned and pre-announced quick fixes for the beginning of Trump 2.0 may open new Pandora’s boxes. Further, given the unpredictability and transactional inconsistencies seen in Trump 1.0—from building an anti-immigrant wall on the southern border to the Summits with Kim Jong Un—were infructuous and were quietly abandoned. It cast doubts about keeping the new promises. Lastly, the bitter polarisation and name-calling of Trump 1.0 is a legacy that may haunt Trump 2.0. All these tactical complexities and shifts presage a pattern making Trump 2.0 invariably joined at the hip with Trump 1.0.

Pardons To MAGA To Immigration, A Domestic Roller-Coaster

Opening overtures of Trump 2.0 are likely to be dominated by domestic agenda. It’s partly because his support base expects it and also because he has greater authority to do so. Firing inconvenient officials and presidential pardons, etc, are likely to be in the first flush. It may follow some measures at score-settling with “the enemies within” even as the bite may be less than the bark. He would find ways to flesh out his catchphrases such as “America First” and “Make America Great Again”. Stopping illegal immigration and deporting those who have already done so would be a priority, even as some of these measures may be legally questionable.

On the economic side, Trump 2.0 may prune welfare spending and have a smaller government to balance with the promised lowering of taxes. Other intended moves such as high tariffs on imports and “Drill, Baby, Drill” may have collateral consequences in terms of trade wars, higher inflation, further demonise the “big oil”, environmental damage and lower export revenues. Rewarding Elon Musk and other corporate friends may lead to allegations of crony capitalism. The US political system does grant the President a high degree of impunity and the political context at the Congress and Supreme Court may be salubrious. Nevertheless, Mr Trump comes with the baggage of having been impeached twice and has the dubious distinction of being the first US President found guilty of 34 felony counts. His penchant for leaving a positive legacy is likely to restrain him.

The World Has Changed—For Trump, Too

In the foreign policy domain, President Trump would discover that the international context has turned far more complicated and nuanced. Despite bragging about his foreign policy accomplishments, Trump 1.0 was scarred by failed tactical initiatives, such as a deal with the Taliban, mollycoddling autocrats, reneging on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, antagonising longstanding partners, undermining multilateral architecture, etc. No wonder most partners reacted cautiously to the Trump victory. Even the ruling British Labour Party, for instance, had to painfully ruminate over the serious pejoratives it used to describe Trump 1.0. The rightist fringes in Europe and Israel have warmly welcomed his re-ascendence. The countries demonised during Trump 1.0, such as China, and Iran, reacted with predictable defiance.

The reactions to his elections were a foretaste of the kind of difficulties Trump 2.0 is likely to face as his ambitious agenda. While the US remains the world’s primordial superpower, her hard and soft powers are significantly lower now, making unilateral pursuit of a wish list more difficult, particularly as he promises to avoid military engagements abroad. Trump 1.0 diplomacy was more about treating the symptoms than the disease. Living in denial was an often-exercised option on softer global issues such as climate change and disarmament. These tactical approaches merely kicked the can down the road, making the hotspots more numerous, more entrenched and intractable as evinced in the South China Sea, the Urals and the Middle East. Further, the cynical transactional approaches of Trump 1.0 lacked moral underpinnings, often reducing them to exercises in cynical manipulations and/or arm-twisting. More dangerously, it often allowed Trump’s interlocutors to pander to flattery or deception to get their goals.

‘A Man Deserves A Second Chance, But…’

The US under Trump 2.0 has two divergent options: isolationism and living in denial and inverted snobbery, or getting down from the moral horse and engaging either singly or through the same multilateral institutions that were often disfranchised during Trump 1.0. If Trump 2.0 intends to go beyond the palliatives deals and resolve the stubborn global crises, it would need to reinvent and realign itself with the new realities of the China-Russia nexus, more assertive middle-rung countries, including India, Brazil, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, France, Germany, etc. Even traditional partners such as the UK, Japan, Australia, and Israel need to be courted afresh.

With his disregard for conventions, clipped deliveries, one-liners and over-the-top High Noons too often, Trump 1.0 styled itself more as an urbane cowboy than the conventional politician. We do not know if the invocation to resonate with the WASP psyche was accidental or deliberate. As he prepares to saunter to the White House yet again, it is worthwhile to quote John Wayne, the famous Hollywood Wild West icon: “A man deserves a second chance, but keep an eye on him.”

(Mahesh Sachdev is a former Indian Ambassador. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

New Delhi:

With Republican nominee Donald Trump just three votes short of a victory in the Presidential election, wishes from world leaders began pouring in even as he promised a “golden age for America”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed confidence that with Mr Trump at the helm, India-US ties will reach greater heights. “As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” he wrote on X.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning expressed hope for “peaceful coexistence” with the United States, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the US is an “unfriendly country” and Russia would judge Mr Trump on his actions.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, said Mr Trump’s “historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America”.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recalled a meeting with the president-elect in September, where they both discussed the Ukraine-US strategic partnership to end Russian aggression. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States,” the Ukraine President wrote in a post on X.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, among the first world leaders to issue a congratulatory message, said the “special relationship” between the UK and the US would continue to prosper under the new American administration. “As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come,” he said.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed that Berlin would work with him for “prosperity and freedom”. On the potential working relationship with the US, French President Emmanuel Macron said, “With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister of Australia, reaffirmed the friendship between the two countries as he congratulated Mr Trump. “Congratulations to President Donald Trump on his election victory. Australians and Americans are great friends and true allies. Working together, we can ensure the partnership between our nations and peoples remains strong into the future,” he said in a post on X.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that European Union (EU) and the US are more than just allies. “We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens.So let’s work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that keeps delivering for them,” she wrote on X.

NATO chief Mark Rutte said Mr Trump’s return to power will help keep the alliance “strong”. “His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO,” Rutte said in a statement.

As per Associated Press, 267 electoral votes have gone to Republican candidate Trump and 224 to Democratic Party’s Kamala Harris. Trump is just three votes short of a victory.

New Delhi:

Former President Donald Trump delivered a speech on Wednesday at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida as he inched closer to victory in the recently-concluded US election, vowing to heal the country.

All of us can be forgiven for mistaking 2024 as the year of the longest-running live TV entertainment. Thankfully, one leg of it is over. As the votes get counted, the world can take a breather while regrouping and replenishing supplies for the second. The race to become the President of the United States has never been so absurd for the onlookers. Who or what, for example, was anyone rooting for?

According to a Pew Research Centre survey conducted in September, 69% of Americans admitted to following news about the presidential candidates for the 2024 election very (28%) or fairly (40%) closely. But what exactly were they getting or hoping to get? The survey report says, “Americans most often see news about actions on the presidential campaign trail, though they are most interested in their stances on issues”. A fair ask. Obviously unmet. 

Circus Of The Absurd

What the American voter has received so far is a concept of a plan from Trump and a promised continuum of Biden’s ‘problematic’ policies from Harris. Many Americans are sitting this election out, and who can blame them? A campaign trail inundated with descriptions of a golfer’s penis or how immigrants are eating other people’s animals, insinuations about a potential election steal on one side and an undressed stream-of-consciousness word salad on the other, has done little to convince the average American voter about the nobility and grandiosity of the White House. 

Both Trump and Harris have demonstrated an utter inability to learn from the past. While Trump got too bored of a decent, non-dramatic campaign just a few months into 2024 and unleashed his 2020 MAGA-man energy, Harris stubbornly refused to bring any course correction in her agenda on foreign policy issues despite her fellow Democrats’ public castigation. This election has been the most extensive testimony of what a lot of analysts within the US, as well as outside, have observed but have largely refrained from verbalising: both the Democrats and the Republicans fashion their electoral campaigns around the faults of the other side while doing absolutely nothing about their own. 

Kamala, The Saner One

Is it not ridiculous that the Harris campaign posited her only as the saner alternative to Trump? The fact that the Democrat incumbency became a burden and not a bolster for Harris should alert us that the new president’s arrival in the White House will probably be an extension of all the gaffes this campaign saw. And what about the process of candidate selection for both parties? Declaring Trump as their candidate for the third time, the Republican Party demonstrated an utter lack of imagination at a time when President Biden’s popularity was ebbing steadily. The Democrats changed their candidate from Biden to Harris with almost nil deliberations in their convention. The working-class voters, cold about Biden, have stayed cold towards her as well throughout the campaign.

But the US presidential elections are not about the American voters alone. What happens on Capitol Hill reverberates throughout the world. When Barack Obama won his first term, the symbolism of this victory was evident from young and old Indians celebrating at the India Gate in New Delhi. Presidents come and go, but their road to the Capitol paves ways across the world for ideologies, ideas, and geopolitical ramifications.

Nobody Knows Anything

From formulating trade controls to funding wars, what the POTUS decides goes a long way for the US and the rest of the world. Both Trump and Harris turned serious policy issues into farce during the campaign by sharpening the focus only on each other’s personalities. We still do not know what Trump’s plan is for the Middle East or the Russia-Ukraine war. Or China. Or Sudan or Bangladesh, for that matter. We only know that Harris is “committed to peace”, but her party’s ongoing actions have suggested otherwise. 

At this moment, it is an exercise in futility to assess what a Trump or a Harris win might mean for India or the larger Global South. There are no guiding principles to launch any such enquiry. Any scenario study will yield only fallacious conclusions because, simply, neither Trump nor Harris has stuck to either the party line or even their own stated beliefs. Trump’s transactionalism and Harris’s hubris are enough to defy any projections.

The US presidential election was once a lesson in how democracy asserts itself. In 2024, it has become something else. 

A glorified version of Hulk Hogan wrestling with his shirt.

(Nishtha Gautam is a Delhi-based author and academic.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

President Joe Biden has cast an early ballot in the 2024 general election.

It’s a bittersweet moment for Biden, who decided to end his reelection campaign in July because of growing concerns about his health and Democrats’ worries about his chances of defeating former President Donald Trump. Biden voted on Monday at the state of Delaware Department of Elections, not far from his home outside Wilmington, Delaware at an early voting site, where voters were lined up down the street to cast ballots.

Biden chatted with voters as he waited in line to cast his ballot, and helped push an older woman in a wheelchair who ahead of him. The president waited in line for about 40 minutes before he cast his ballot.

He handed his identification to the election worker, who had him sign a form and announced: “Joseph Biden now voting.”

As the president cast his ballot behind a black drape, some first-time voters were announced and the room erupted in cheers for them.

For all but a few years since 1970, Biden has either held office or been running for one during election season.

But this year, his hopes lie with a newer generation of Democrats, including three on the Delaware ballot looking to make history.

Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden endorsed after dropping out, is vying to become the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to serve as president.

State Sen. Sarah McBride is looking to become the first openly transgender member of the U.S. House.

McBride, a longtime friend of the Biden family, had served as an aide in then-President Barack Obama ‘s administration and on the campaigns in 2006 and 2010 for the president’s late son Beau Biden’s runs for Delaware attorney general. She also worked for former Delaware Gov. Jack Markell.

McBride hopes to succeed Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who wants to become Delaware’s first Black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate. She has served as Delaware’s lone representative in the House since 2017.

On Monday, Biden had breakfast Blunt Rochester. He’s known her family for decades, and campaigned with her father, Theodore “Ted” Blunt, who served on the Wilmington City Council for almost a quarter century, including as president. Biden on Sunday evening formally endorsed Blunt Rochester, cutting a video for her campaign in which he called her “Delaware through and through.”

Blunt Rochester is vying to succeed Sen. Tom Carper, who has held the seat since 2001 in the solidly Democratic state. He is retiring.

Early voting in Delaware began on Saturday.

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