Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Oman, a long-standing American ally in the Persian Gulf, reflects both his administration’s deepening frustration with the war against Iran and Washington’s declining influence in the region. This is the second time that the U.S. leader has threatened to attack Oman, which hosted talks between Washington and Tehran before he launched the war on February 28. When Mr. Trump backed down from a threatened escalation after 13 days of bombing on Iran in July, he said the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed by Iran after it was attacked. But Iran never said that it had agreed to a deal with the U.S. over the Strait and instead issued several demands, including releasing frozen funds and issuing sanctions relief, as preconditions for any agreement. Ever since, Oman, under U.S. influence, has been talking to Iran seeking a settlement. As Iran, which survived two rounds of U.S. bombings, refused to offer major concessions, the U.S.’s frustration with Oman has deepened. Mr. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the Strait of Hormuz was open, but traffic through the waterway, through which one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passed before the war, is nowhere near its pre-war levels.

The war has raised questions about America’s regional security strategy and its commitment to the security of its allies. Over the years the U.S. had built military bases across the Persian Gulf. However, Tehran has turned these bases into a liability by repeatedly striking them and their host countries. At least 15 American bases, including the Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, are either damaged or destroyed, which has substantially reduced the U.S.’s strategic presence. But Mr. Trump does not seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. Instead of reassuring the allies, he is now threatening to bomb them because they are not able to deliver on his push for a face-saving deal with Iran. From day one of the war, his threats and rhetoric did little to advance America’s strategic goals or deter Iran. But Mr. Trump, stuck deep in the Persian sands, appears unable to change tack. Whether he acknowledges America’s growing limitations in West Asia or not, countries in the region confront a new strategic reality: the foundations of the old security architecture have been shaken. In their hour of need, American bases have turned out to be a liability. They should also recognise that the decades-old policy of containing Iran has failed. To ensure their own security and regional stability, the Persian Gulf countries need to look beyond the American security umbrella and lay the foundations for a new regional order, shaped by a cold peace between the Arab states and Iran.

Donald Trump’s decision to postpone attacks on Iran’s power plants, 36 hours after issuing a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, is the clearest sign yet that the war is not going according to his plan. Over the past week, Mr. Trump has declared victory, claiming that U.S. and Israeli strikes had destroyed Iran’s defence capabilities. Yet, Iran continues to launch missiles at Persian Gulf countries and Israel, while maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which prevents Mr. Trump from extricating himself from a conflict whose economic costs are mounting globally. Since the war began on February 28, Iran has largely ignored Mr. Trump’s threats, responding to escalation with counter-escalation. When the U.S. bombed Kharg Island, Iran struck American bases in the region. When Israel targeted South Pars, Iran hit energy facilities across Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Israel. After the Natanz nuclear facility was struck, Tehran targeted Dimona, the Israeli town hosting its nuclear facilities. When Mr. Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants, Tehran warned of attacks on Gulf and Israeli energy assets and U.S. financial interests, forcing him to make a U-turn.

Before the war began, the U.S. and Israel had set ambitious objectives: force Tehran to shut down its nuclear programme and ship out the highly enriched uranium, cut off Iran’s support for non-state militias in West Asia and dismantle its missile capabilities. Twenty-five days later, one of Mr. Trump’s key priorities is to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed only after the war broke out. He does not have easy options to do so — he has to either talk to Tehran and make a deal or authorise a ground operation; reports suggest the U.S. has already despatched thousands of marines. Yet, Mr. Trump’s U-turn on strikes on power plants indicates that he may be seriously weighing talks. Iran has dismissed Mr. Trump’s claims that negotiations are underway. But President Masoud Pezeshkian has outlined conditions for ending the war: guarantees against future aggression; reparations for infrastructure damage; and recognition of Iran’s ‘legitimate rights’ (which can be interpreted as sanctions relief). Mr. Trump, whose administration has already eased some sanctions on Iran’s oil, could be looking for a deal, and Tehran could reciprocate if common ground is found. But for any diplomatic effort to progress, Mr. Trump must first rein in his ally Israel, which continues to pound Iran and Lebanon like an unhinged bully. The military path that he has embraced is showing clear limits. The least damaging way out for Mr. Trump is to strike a deal with Iran and get out of this war.