The Reserve Bank on Thursday (July 9, 2026) launched three key surveys, including one to gauge inflation expectations among households, aimed at providing critical inputs for formulating monetary policy.

The July 2026 round of the ‘Inflation Expectations Survey of Households’ aims at capturing subjective assessments on price movements and inflation, based on their individual consumption baskets, across 19 cities, the central bank said in a statement.

The survey seeks qualitative responses from households on price changes (general prices as well as prices of specific product groups) in the three months ahead as well as in the one year ahead period and quantitative responses on current, three months ahead and one year ahead inflation rates, it said.

The RBI also announced the launch of ‘the July 2026 round of the Rural Consumer Confidence Survey’.

The survey collects current perceptions and one-year-ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending from the households residing in the rural and semi-urban areas across 31 States/ UTs.

In another statement, it said the July 2026 round of Urban Consumer Confidence Survey seeks qualitative responses from households, regarding their sentiments on general economic situation, employment scenario, price level, households’ income and spending.

Like the inflation expectation survey, it will also be conducted across 19 cities, including Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai, and Thiruvananthapuram.

The results of the surveys provide useful inputs for monetary policy, the Reserve Bank said.

The next meeting of the rate-setting panel— Monetary Policy Committee— is scheduled for August 3 to 5, 2026.

The rupee appreciated 81 paise to close at 94.93 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (June 5, 2026) after the Reserve Bank announced measures to support foreign capital inflows and strengthen forex liquidity.

Forex traders said the announcements in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy boosted investor sentiments after the apex bank asserted that the country’s forex reserves provide a sufficient buffer against external shocks. The Reserve Bank on Friday (June 5, 2026) expectedly kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row as it weighed the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the West Asia crisis.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.72, then touched an intraday high of 94.89 and finally ended the session at 94.93 (provisional), registering a rise of 81 paise from its previous close. On Thursday (June 4, 2026), the rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 95.74 against the U.S. dollar.

Announcing the second bi-monthly monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has unanimously decided to retain the short-term lending rate or repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance.

“By holding the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance even while raising the FY27 inflation forecast by 50 basis points to 5.1%, the RBI has drawn a clean line: the rate instrument is reserved for inflation, and the rupee will be defended through the capital account,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities.

The expansion of the Fully Accessible Route to all new 15-, 30- and 40-year G-Sec issuances, the removal of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) concentration limits, the extension of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) (FCNR(B)) hedging support, the Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) swap window, and the restoration of the export realisation period to nine months together amount to the most comprehensive dollar-mobilisation effort since 2013, Mr. Banerjee added.

The Centre’s simultaneous removal of taxes on foreign investment in Government Securities (G-Secs) is the force multiplier, as it addresses the single biggest friction flagged by global bond funds and index providers.

“We see this as constructive for the long end of the G-Sec curve. On the currency, these measures can aid the rupee’s appreciation over the near term, provided oil prices stay below $100 a barrel.

“We see scope for the rupee to appreciate towards 94 to 94.5 on spot over the near term, with the upside in USD-INR now capped around the 96 mark. Any appreciation beyond 94 would depend on the actual quantum of dollar mobilisation through these newly announced routes and the trajectory of oil prices,” Mr. Banerjee said.

Reserve Bank governor said the forex reserve stood at a healthy $682.3 billion, adequate to provide import cover for about 11 months. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.22, lower by 0.19%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 0.29% at $94.75 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 116.67 points to settle at 74,243.34, while the Nifty fell 49.85 points to 23,366.70. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹4,447.06 crore on a net basis on Thursday (June 4, 2026), according to exchange data. Meanwhile, RBI has lowered GDP growth projection to 6.6% from 6.9% earlier for the current fiscal and raised Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projection to 5.1% for FY27, higher from the earlier estimate of 4.6%.

The rupee appreciated 11 paise to 95.63 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (June 5, 2026), as market participants wait for the RBI policy decision, while there has also been encouraging news from the India-US trade discussions.

Forex traders said the 96.00 zone remains a strong resistance area for USD/INR and if the RBI signals a cautious approach toward inflation and currency stability in its policy decision, the rupee could gradually move back towards the 95.00-95.20 region in the near term.

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At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.72, then touched 95.63 in initial trade, registering a rise of 11 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday (June 4, 2026), the rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 95.74 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.41, higher by 0.01%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 0.40% at $95.41 per barrel in futures trade.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the Reserve Bank of India’s MPC rate decision on June 5, as inflation, growth and the rupee are under focus, traders said.

“A more cautious RBI stance on inflation would further support debt inflows into India, providing an additional cushion for the rupee,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

While markets wait for the RBI, there has also been encouraging news from the India-US trade discussions, Pabari said, adding that with negotiations entering their final day, investors are hopeful that progress on trade could improve sentiment and support future capital inflows into India.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 269.93 points to 74,629.94 in opening trade, while the Nifty was up 62.4 points to 23,478.95.

Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth ₹4,447.06 crore on a net basis on Thursday (June 4, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a good friend and expressed confidence that the United States and India would reach a trade agreement.

“We will get to a deal because I like your Prime Minister a lot. He is a good friend of mine. We get along great, and we are gonna make a deal,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the Oval Office on Thursday (June 4, 2026).

Moreover, the U.S. said its strategic partnership with India remains robust and that President Donald Trump’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Washington is a “testament” to the “great relationship” between the two leaders as well as the growing ties between the two countries.

Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty traded higher in early deals on Friday (June 5, 2026) ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision.

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 269.93 points to 74,629.94 in opening trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up by 62.4 points to 23,478.95.

From the 30-Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal and Adani Ports were among the biggest gainers.

Tata Steel, Trent, InterGlobe Aviation and Reliance Industries were among the laggards.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded at around $95.40 per barrel.

“There are some mild positive indications for the market today. There are signs of weakness in the AI trade in the U.S., South Korea and Taiwan and rotation away from tech stocks, but it is too early to say whether this will sustain. The focus of the market today will be on the monetary policy and the message from the RBI Governor,” V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said.

In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index traded significantly lower, while Shanghai’s SSE Composite index quoted in positive territory.

U.S. markets ended mostly higher on Thursday (June 4, 2026).

“Global markets offered a contrasting picture overnight. While the Dow Jones surged nearly 900 points to a fresh record high, the rally was largely driven by a rotation away from technology stocks into broader cyclical sectors.

“Asian markets, however, failed to mirror Wall Street’s optimism, with South Korea’s Kospi declining nearly 5 per cent and other regional indices trading under pressure amid concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East,” Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹4,447.06 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data.

On Thursday (June 4, 2026), the Sensex went up marginally by 13.84 points, or 0.02%, to settle at 74,360.01. The Nifty eked out a marginal gain of 10.95 points, or 0.05%, to end at 23,416.55.

Reserve Bank on Friday (December 5, 2025) raised the GDP growth projection to 7.3% for the current fiscal from its earlier estimate of 6.8% following robust economic performance in the July-September quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a six-quarter high growth of 8.2% in Q2 of 2025-26, underpinned by resilient domestic demand amidst global trade and policy uncertainties.

On the supply side, real Gross Value Added (GVA) expanded by 8.1%, aided by buoyant industrial and services sectors.

Unveiling the December monetary policy, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said economic activity during the first half of 2025-26 benefited from income tax and Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalisation, softer crude oil prices, front-loading of government capital expenditure, and facilitative monetary and financial conditions supported by benign inflation.

High-frequency indicators suggest that domestic economic activity is holding up in the October-December quarter, although there are some emerging signs of weakness in few leading indicators, he said.

“GST rationalisation and festival-related spending supported domestic demand during October-November,” he said and added rural demand continues to be robust while urban demand is recovering steadily.

Also, investment activity remains healthy with private investment gaining steam on the back of expansion in non-food bank credit, and high capacity utilisation.

The governor also noted that merchandise exports declined sharply in October amid subdued external demand, accompanied by softer services exports.

On the supply side, agricultural growth is supported by healthy kharif crop production, higher reservoir levels and better rabi crop sowing.

Manufacturing activity continues to improve, while the services sector is maintaining a steady pace, Malhotra said.

“Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is projected at 7.3%, with Q3 at 7%; and Q4 at 6.5%. Real GDP growth for Q1 of 2026-27 is projected at 6.7% and Q2 at 6.8%. The risks are evenly balanced,” he said.

On the external front, the governor said Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to India increased at a robust pace during the first half of the year.

Net FDI also increased significantly due to a decline in repatriation despite a rise in outward FDI.

However, Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) to India recorded net outflows of $0.7 billion in 2025-26 so far (April-December 3), due to outflows in the equity segment.

Flows under external commercial borrowings and non-resident deposit accounts moderated as compared to last year.

As on November 28, 2025, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 686.2 billion, providing a robust import cover of more than 11 months, Malhotra said.

“Overall, India’s external sector remains resilient. We are confident of meeting our external financing requirements comfortably,” he said.

India’s current account deficit moderated from 2.2% of GDP in Q2 of 2024-25 to 1.3% in Q2 of 2025-26 on account of robust services exports and strong remittances.

The governor also said that contrary to earlier expectations, global growth has been relatively strong.

Evolving geopolitical and trade environments, however, continue to weigh on the outlook, he added.

The rupee gave up early gains on Friday (December 5, 2025) after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, in line with a consensus view that had albeit softened due to a stronger-than-expected economic growth and the currency’s recent slide.

The rupee fell to 89.92 after the policy decision was announced, down from 89.78 before the announcement. The rupee has declined 5% over the year so far and is Asia’s worst-performing currency.

Weakness in trade and capital flows has bogged down the rupee this year, with the drag compounded by steep U.S. trade tariffs, pushing the currency below the 90 per dollar mark.

A majority of economists in a Reuters poll conducted ahead of last week’s gross domestic product data had expected the repo rate to be lowered by a quarter point at the policy meeting, followed by a pause through 2026.

However, some analysts and market participants had pared rate cut bets after data showed the South Asian economy expanded at a sharper-than-expected clip of 8.2% in the July-September quarter.

The RBI also took steps to boost liquidity in country’s banking sector to support what the Governor Sanjay Malhotra defined as a “goldilocks economy”.