The RBI cited the favourable agricultural crop outlook which could ease food inflation pressures, subject to weather risks. File photo
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected India’s real GDP growth for FY25 at 7.2 per cent, while CPI inflation for the fiscal year is expected to moderate to 4.5 per cent, post Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday (October 9, 2024).

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Mr. Das said, “Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent. With Q2 at 7 per cent, Q3 at 7.4 per cent and Q4 7.4 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 of next financial year that is 2025-26 is projected at 7.3 per cent and the risks are evenly balanced.

According to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, growth for the fiscal year will be supported by robust quarterly performances.

However, Inflation in the third quarter is forecasted a little higher at 4.8 per cent, with further moderation anticipated in the fourth quarter when the kharif harvest comes.

However, RBI cautioned that the agricultural output remains susceptible to weather-related shocks, which could influence inflationary trends.

In contrast of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of FY25, Mr. Das said, “Real GDP grew by 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of this financial year, that is, 2024-2025, and this was led by a revival in private consumption and improvement in investment. The share of investment in GDP reached its highest level since 2012-2013. Government expenditure, on the other hand, contracted during the first quarter.”

“On the supply side, gross value added, that is, GVA, expanded by 6.8 per cent, surpassing the GDP growth, aided by strong industrial and services sector activities. High-frequency indicators available so far suggest that domestic economic activity continues to be steady,” Mr. Das added.

On the liquidity front, surplus conditions prevailed in August, September, and early October, though liquidity levels shifted back in late September. However, the agriculture and services sectors remained strong, and government consumption showed signs of improvement. Private investment intentions are also improving, reflecting growing confidence in the economy. Mr. Das said, “MPC noted that currently, the macroeconomic parameters of inflation and growth are well balanced.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das delivers the Monetary Policy statement, in Mumbai. File photo
| Photo Credit: PTI

 The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday (October 9, 2024) decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the 10th consecutive time.

Of the six members of the MPC, five voted in favour of the decision, which is aimed at taming inflation.

Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the central bank’s decision on policy rates in the RBI’s concluding day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. “The Flexible monitory policy framework has completed 8 years. This is major structural reform, “ Mr. Das said in a statement.

The RBI changes stance of monetary policy to ‘neutral’ from withdrawal of accomodation, Mr. Das said. In the backdrop of a good monsoon and adequate buffer stock, the food inflation will fall later in the year, Mr. Das said.

The meeting, which began on October 7, has garnered significant attention, as the RBI has maintained the repo rate at 6.50% for the past nine consecutive meetings, adopting a cautious stance to balance inflationary concerns with the need for economic growth.

Earlier on August 8, 2024, in its first meeting after the Union Budget, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the ninth consecutive time.

(With inputs from agencies)