Earlier this month, China declared new “baselines” around Scarborough Reef, a large coral atoll topped by a handful of rocks barely above sea level in the South China Sea.

By doing so, China reaffirmed its sovereignty claim over what has become a global flashpoint in the disputed waters.

This was a pre-calculated response to the Philippines’ enactment of new maritime laws two days earlier that aimed to safeguard its own claims over the reef and other contested parts of the sea.

This legal tit-for-tat is a continuation of the ongoing sovereignty and maritime dispute between China and the Philippines (and others) in a vital ocean area through which one-third of global trade travels.

The Philippines rejected China’s declaration as a violation of its “long-established sovereignty over the shoal”. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said:

What we see is an increasing demand by Beijing for us to concede our sovereign rights in the area.

As the tensions continue to worsen over these claims, there is an ever-increasing risk of an at-sea conflict between the two countries.

What is the Scarborough Reef?

Scarborough Reef is called Huangyan Dao in Chinese and Bajo de Masinloc by the Philippines. It is located in the northeast of the South China Sea, about 116 nautical miles (215km) west of the Philippine island of Luzon and 448 nautical miles (830km) south of the Chinese mainland.

At high tide it is reduced to a few tiny islets, the tallest of which is just 3 metres above the water. However, at low tide, it is the largest coral atoll in the South China Sea.

China asserts sovereignty over all of the waters, islands, rocks and other features in the South China Sea, as well as unspecified “historic rights” within its claimed nine-dash line. This includes Scarborough Reef.

In recent years, the reef has been the scene of repeated clashes between China and the Philippines. Since 2012, China has blocked Filipino fishing vessels from accessing the valuable lagoon here. This prompted the Philippines to take China to international arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 2013.

Three years later, an arbitration tribunal ruled that China has no historic rights to maritime areas where this would conflict with UNCLOS. The tribunal also concluded China had “unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal.”

China refused to participate in the arbitration case and has strongly rejected its ruling as being “null and void” and having “no binding force”.

What did China do this month?

China declared the exact location of the base points of its territorial claim around Scarborough Reef with geographical coordinates (longitude and latitude), joined up by straight lines.

The declaration of so-called “baselines” is standard practice for countries that want to claim maritime zones along their coasts. Baselines provide the starting point for measuring these zones.

A country’s “territorial sea” is measured from this baseline outward to as far as 12 nautical miles (22km). Under the UNCLOS treaty, a country then has full sovereignty rights over this zone, covering the seabed, water, airspace and any resources located there.

Countries want their baselines to be as far out to sea as possible so they can maximise the ocean areas over which they can reap economic benefits and enforce their own laws.

China is no exception. Along with other countries (especially in Asia), it draws the most generous baselines of all – straight baselines. These can connect distant headlands or other coastal outcrops with a simple straight line, or even enclose nearshore islands.

China is especially fond of straight baselines. In 1996, it drew them along most of its mainland coast and around the Paracel Islands, a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea. China defined additional straight baselines this March in the Gulf of Tonkin up to its land border with Vietnam.

China says these actions comply with UNCLOS. However, its use of straight baselines around Scarborough Reef conflicts with international law. This is because UNCLOS provides a specific rule for baselines around reefs, which China did not follow.

Based on our review of satellite imagery, however, China has only advanced the outer limit of its territorial sea by a few hundred metres in two directions. This is because its straight baselines largely hug the edge of the reef.

These new baselines around Scarborough Reef are therefore fairly conservative and enclose a dramatically smaller area than the US had feared.

NEW: The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released coordinates demarcating the PRC’s claimed territorial sea baseline around Scarborough Shoal on November 10.

The PRC’s announcement of a territorial sea baseline around Scarborough Shoal likely aims to legitimize its… pic.twitter.com/2VrI8Dqf6z

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 13, 2024

China’s declaration signals that it may have abandoned its much larger “offshore archipelago” claim to what it calls the Zhongsha Islands.

China has long asserted that Scarborough Reef is part of this larger island group, which includes the Macclesfield Bank, a totally underwater feature 180 nautical miles (333 km) to the west. This led to concern that Beijing might draw a baseline around this entire island group, claiming all the waters within exclusively for its use.

The South China Sea arbitration tribunal ruled that international law prohibits such claims. There will be a collective sigh of relief among many countries that China decided to make a much smaller claim over Scarborough Reef.

Significance and future steps?

However, China’s clarification of its baselines around the reef signals it may be more assertive in its law enforcement here.

The China Coast Guard has said it will step up patrols in the South China Sea to “firmly uphold order, protect the local ecosystem and biological resources and safeguard national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights”.

Given the long history of clashes related to fishing access around Scarborough Reef, this sets the scene for more confrontation.

And what about the biggest prize of all in the South China Sea – the Spratly Islands?

We can now expect China will continue its long straight baselines march to this island group to the south. The Spratlys are an archipelago of more than 150 small islands, reefs and atolls spread out over around 240,000 square kilometres of lucrative fishing grounds. They are claimed by China, as well as the Philippines and several other countries.

These countries can be expected to protest any attempted encirclement of the Spratly Islands by new Chinese baselines.

(Authors: Yucong Wang, Lecturer, University of Newcastle; Clive Schofield, Professor, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS), University of Wollongong, and Warwick Gullett, Professor of Law, University of Wollongong)

(Disclosure Statement: Clive Schofield served as an independent expert witness appointed by the Philippines in the South China Sea arbitration case. Warwick Gullett and Yucong Wang do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Super Typhoon Man-yi battered the Philippines on Saturday (November 16, 2024), with the national weather forecaster warning of a “potentially catastrophic and life-threatening” impact as huge waves pounded the archipelago’s coastline.

More than 650,000 people fled their homes ahead of Man-yi, which is the sixth major storm to hit the disaster-weary country in the past month.

Man-yi brought maximum wind speeds of 195 kilometres (121 miles) per hour as it made landfall on the sparsely populated island province of Catanduanes as a super typhoon, the weather service said, adding gusts were reaching 325 kilometres an hour.

“Potentially catastrophic and life-threatening situation looms for northeastern Bicol region as Super Typhoon ‘Pepito’ further intensifies,” the forecaster said hours before it made landfall, using the local name for the storm and referring to the southern part of the main island of Luzon.

Waves up to 14 metres (46 feet) high pummelled the shore of Catanduanes, while Manila and other vulnerable coastal regions were at risk from storm surges reaching up to more than three metres over the next 48 hours, the forecaster said.

The weather forecaster said winds walloping Catanduanes and northeastern Camarines Sur province — both in the typhoon-prone Bicol region — posed an “extreme threat to life and property”.

Power was shut down on Catanduanes ahead of the storm, with shelters and the command centre using generators for electricity.

“We’re hearing sounds of things falling and things breaking while here at the evacuation centre,” Catanduanes provincial disaster operations chief Roberto Monterola told AFP after Man-yi made landfall.

“We are unable to check what they are as the winds are too strong. They could be tree branches breaking off and falling on rooftops,” Monterola said, adding there had been no reports of casualties.

At least 163 people died in the five storms that pounded the Philippines in recent weeks, leaving thousands homeless and wiping out crops and livestock.

Climate change is increasing the intensity of storms, leading to heavier rains, flash floods and stronger gusts.

About 20 big storms and typhoons hit the Southeast Asian nation or its surrounding waters each year, killing scores of people, but it is rare for multiple such weather events to take place in a small window.

Evacuations

Man-yi could hit Luzon — the country’s most populous island and economic engine — as a super typhoon or typhoon on Sunday afternoon, crossing north of Manila and sweeping over the South China Sea on Monday.

The government urged people on Saturday to heed warnings to flee to safety.

“If preemptive evacuation is required, let us do so and not wait for the hour of peril before evacuating or seeking help, because if we did that we will be putting in danger not only our lives but also those of our rescuers,” Interior Undersecretary Marlo Iringan said.

In Albay province, Legazpi City grocer Myrna Perea sheltered with her husband and their three children in a school classroom alongside nine other families after they were ordered to leave their shanty.

Conditions were hot and cramped — the family spent Friday night sleeping together on a mat under the classroom’s single ceiling fan — but Perea said it was better to be safe.

“I think our house will be wrecked when we get back because it’s made of light materials — just two gusts are required to knock it down,” Perea, 44, told AFP.

“Even if the house is destroyed, the important thing is we do not lose a family member.”

Back to ‘square one’

In Northern Samar province, disaster officer Rei Josiah Echano lamented that damage caused by typhoons was the root cause of poverty in the region.

“Whenever there’s a typhoon like this, it brings us back to the medieval era, we go (back) to square one,” Echano told AFP, as the province prepared for the onslaught of Man-yi.

The mayor of Naga city in Camarines Sur province imposed a curfew from midday on Saturday in a bid to force residents indoors.

All vessels — from fishing boats to oil tankers — were ordered to stay in port or return to shore.

The volcanology agency also warned heavy rain dumped by Man-yi could trigger flows of volcanic sediment, or lahars, from three volcanos, including Taal, south of Manila.

Man-yi hit the Philippines late in the typhoon season — most cyclones develop between July and October.

Earlier this month, four storms were clustered simultaneously in the Pacific basin, which the Japan Meteorological Agency told AFP on Saturday was the first time such an occurrence had been observed in November since its records began in 1951.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. looks on as he meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, March 19, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Philippines has been chosen to host the board of the “Loss and Damage” fund created by U.N. talks, marking another step towards providing financial help for countries to recover and rebuild from the impact of global warming.

Last month, the World Bank’s board approved a plan for the bank to act as interim host of the fund for four years.

Some countries, however, voiced concern that allowing the World Bank to host would give donors, including the United States that appoints the World Bank’s president, too much influence.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr announced his country’s election from a pool of seven contenders in a post on X on Tuesday.

Hosting the board, Marcos said, “reinforces our dedication to inclusivity and our leadership role in ensuring that the voices of those most affected by climate change shape the future of international climate policies”.

The Philippines must enact legislation before it can become host and Marcos did not say when it would take on its role.

An archipelago of more than 7,600 islands, the Philippines, which also has a seat on the fund’s board, is frequently hit by typhoons and other climate-change induced disasters.

As host, Manila could focus attention on the Asia-Pacific region, where many countries struggle with limited resources, hindering their ability to respond to the effects of climate change.

Who pays for loss and damage has been among the most intractable issues at U.N. climate talks, as developed countries blamed for producing the most emissions historically have been nervous about how much of the bill for redressing damage they might face.

COP27 in Egypt in 2022 however managed to establish a U.N. “loss and damage” fund dedicated to addressing irreparable climate-driven damage from drought, floods and rising sea levels, but did not decide on detail.

Lidy Nacpil, coordinator of the Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD), said it was up to the Philippines to demonstrate political leadership.

They should demand developed countries “fulfil their historical, legal, and moral obligation to provide reparations for climate devastation,” Nacpil said in a statement.

Image used for representative purpose only
| Photo Credit: AP

The Philippines said on May 24 it had opened a coast guard post in the country’s far north to boost security following China’s “military build-up” near Taiwan over the past two years.

The outpost “shall gather essential maritime data and intelligence, enabling the (Philippine Coast Guard) to respond effectively to threats such as illicit trade, trafficking, piracy, and foreign intrusions”, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said in a statement.

“In 2022, the area around Itbayat witnessed a military build-up as China responded to political developments between Taiwan and the United States,” Ano said, announcing the opening of the station on the Philippines’ northernmost inhabited island.

Itbayat is located around 150 kilometres (93 miles) south of Taiwan’s south coast.

“Securing peace, stability, and freedom of navigation along the Luzon Strait is crucial for ensuring Philippine national security and economic prosperity,” Ano said.

Ano added he sees the Luzon Strait, which lies between the Philippines and Taiwan, both as a “vital international waterway” and “a potential flashpoint for regional and international conflicts”.

Jay Tarriela, the Philippine Coast Guard spokesman for South China Sea issues, said the Itbayat station “will enable effective monitoring of vessels passing through” the strait.

“Notably, there have been instances of People’s Republic of China vessels being observed in this maritime area as they cross to the Philippines’ eastern seaboard,” Tarriela said in a statement.

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The waters off the north coast of the main Philippine island of Luzon were the focus earlier this month of major annual joint military exercises between Manila and its longtime ally the United States.

These included using missiles and artillery to repel an imaginary sea-borne invasion force.

Last year, the Philippine government also granted the US military use of a navy base on Luzon’s north coast and a nearby airport as part of a defence cooperation agreement.

Beijing and Manila are in a bitter diplomatic dispute over rival claims to parts of the South China Sea.

China has built artificial islands and military installations in waters close to the Philippines.

Its efforts to enforce its claims have in recent years included water cannon attacks by China Coast Guard vessels that damaged Philippine government boats and injured several crew members.

Itbayat is just outside the area designated by a vaguely defined map of dashes that China uses to claim most of the South China Sea.

Ano made no reference to war games that China began on Thursday in which it encircled Taiwan with warplanes and naval vessels.

Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro talks during the closing ceremony of U.S.-Philippines Balikatan joint military exercise at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City, metro Manila on May 10, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

The Philippine military must evolve fast because of threats to a “free and open” Asia-Pacific region, Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on May 10 at the end of annual exercises with the United States.

Mr. Teodoro, whose comments were made against the backdrop of a festering maritime row with China, said the military must “try to focus on actual soldiering”.

“The worst thing in a kitchen is a dull knife, and a good chef hones the knife every day,” Mr. Teodoro said.

“We will be increasing the pressure continuously for them to evolve as soon as possible into a multi-threat, multi-theatre operating armed force,” he said.

The annual “Balikatan” war games, involving around 11,000 American, 5,000 Filipino and 100 Australian troops, began on April 22 and were concentrated in the northern and western parts of the archipelago nation, near the potential flashpoints of the South China Sea and Taiwan.

The area has seen increased confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels around shoals in the South China Sea claimed by Manila, as well as stepped-up Chinese air and naval activity around nearby self-ruled Taiwan.

Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims from other countries, including the Philippines, and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

It deploys hundreds of coast guard, navy and other vessels to patrol the contested waters.

China’s coast guard has blasted Philippine vessels with water cannon off Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal in the disputed sea this year, causing damage and injuries.

“No amount of malign, or for lack of a better term, perverse attempts to subvert our goal for a free and open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order will stop our shared advance towards upholding these internationally accepted norms come what may,” Mr. Teodoro said, using the United States’ preferred term for the Asia-Pacific the region.

‘Shoulder to shoulder’

Lieutenant General Michael Cederholm, commander of the U.S. First Marine Expeditionary Force, said the joint exercises — dubbed Balikatan, or “shoulder to shoulder” in Tagalog — “directly built warfighting readiness” for the allies.

“It should also give pause to any adversary who does not believe in a free and open Pacific, who does not believe in transparency, who does not seek peaceful resolution but would seek to use force to impose their will on other sovereign nations,” he said.

The row between the Philippines and China took another turn on Friday when Manila’s top security adviser called for the expulsion of Chinese embassy staff he accused of “malign influence and interference”.

The Chinese embassy said in a statement on May 3 that diplomats had reached an informal agreement with the Philippine armed forces, through its Western Command, to handle disputes around Ren’ai Jiao, China’s name for Second Thomas Shoal, in the South China Sea.

Mr. Teodoro said on Monday there was no such agreement with Chinese diplomats.

On Friday, Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano accused the Chinese embassy of “repeated acts of engaging in and dissemination of disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation”.

He said those “responsible for these malign influence and interference operations must be removed from the country immediately”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Friday that Beijing “solemnly requires that the Philippines effectively ensures that Chinese diplomats can perform their duties normally, (and) stops infringement and provocation”.

Second Thomas Shoal is garrisoned by Filipino troops stationed on a grounded naval ship who are frequently resupplied by boat with food, water and other provisions.

The resupply missions to the remote reef have become a flashpoint between the rival claimants.

At least 11 people were injured when a rain-induced landslide buried two buses picking up workers from a gold mine in the southern Philippines, officials said.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Faulty warning systems, poverty and deforestation of mountains in the southern Philippines turned recent unseasonably heavy rains into deadly disasters, scientists said in a report Friday.

More than 100 people were killed in landslides and floods in January and February on the country’s second-largest island of Mindanao as the northeast monsoon and a low pressure trough brought downpours.

A study by the World Weather Attribution group found the unsually heavy rain in eastern Mindanao was not “particularly extreme”.

But with people living in landslide-prone areas and shortcomings in weather alerts, the rains became “devastating”.

“We can’t just blame the rain for the severe impacts,” said Richard Ybanez, chief science research specialist at the University of the Philippines’ Resilience Institute.

“A range of human factors is what turned these downpours into deadly disasters.”

In the deadliest incident, more than 90 people were killed when the side of a mountain collapsed and smashed into a gold mining village on February 6, burying buses and houses.

While climate change was likely one of the drivers of the heavy rain, the report said scientists were not able to quantify its impact due to the lack of available data.

“However, we did detect a strong trend in the historical data — compared to the pre-industrial climate, the heaviest five-day periods of rainfall now drop around 50% more rainfall on Mindanao island in the December to February period,” said Mariam Zachariah of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.

The scientists found that a higher-than-average rate of poverty in the mountainous region had left people vulnerable to the impacts of heavier rainfall, while “intensified deforestation” had increased the risk of landslides.

“Across the region of study, construction in areas declared ‘no-build zones’ raises these dangers considerably,” the report said.

The report said policies, laws and funding of disaster risk management “have largely stalled over the past decades” and were concentrated on post-disaster response.

For example, automated sensors for rainfall and stream level in the region “have not been recording data since at least 2022”, after funding for maintenance and data transmission was cut.

The report also faulted the country’s weather forecasts and warnings, which “have limited granularity on local risk and lack instructions on where and when to evacuate”.

“Evacuations from high-risk locations were carried out when the island was hit by the rainfall in late January. However, many people were still in harm’s way,” said Mr. Ybanez.

“It is critical that both early warning systems and assessment of landslide-prone areas are improved to avoid similar disasters in the future,” he said.

The report also warned that the recent rains would have been “more extreme” were it not for the El Nino weather phenomenon causing drier conditions across the country.

The tropical archipelago nation — which is ranked among the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change — is usually affected by around 20 major storms a year.