Huddled in the presidential situation room in February last year, senior Philippines officials faced a stark choice. Military and intelligence leaders watched as coast guard officers showed photos of what the agency said was a military-grade laser that China had pointed at a Philippines ship in disputed waters days earlier.

Eduardo Ano, the national security adviser and chair of the South China Sea taskforce, had to decide whether to release the pictures and risk Beijing’s ire, or refrain from aggravating his giant neighbour.

“The public deserves to know,” the retired general told the officials. “Publish the photographs.” The previously undisclosed meeting marked a pivotal moment, as Manila began a publicity blitz to highlight the intensifying territorial dispute in the South China Sea, where the ramming of ships, use of water cannons and ensuing diplomatic protests have sharply raised tensions.

“It was a turning point and the birth of the transparency policy,” National Security Council spokesperson Jonathan Malaya, who attended the meeting and recounted the exchange, told Reuters. “The goal was to eventually impose severe costs to Beijing’s reputation, image and standing.” Mr. Malaya said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had directed officials to “civilianise and internationalise” the dispute, which they had achieved by using the coast guard and routinely embedding foreign journalists on missions. “This became an important component of building international support for the Philippines, because our audience is also foreign governments,” he added.

This account of the Philippines’ policy switch and its implications is based on interviews with 20 Philippine and Chinese officials, regional diplomats and analysts. They said publicising China’s actions, combined with Manila’s deepened military alliance with the U.S., had constrained Beijing’s ability to escalate matters at sea but raised the risks of Chinese economic retaliation and U.S. involvement. The February 2023 meeting occurred days after Mr. Marcos granted the U.S. access to four more military bases in the Philippines, rekindling defence ties that had suffered under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

“China has few escalatory options left without triggering the U.S.-Philippines mutual defence treaty and risking a military confrontation between Chinese and U.S. forces,” said Ian Storey, a security scholar at Singapore’s Yusof Ishak ISEAS Institute.

Mr. Marcos has also pursued a diplomatic offensive, gaining statements of support for the Philippines’ position from countries such as Canada, Germany, India and Japan.

The South China Sea is rich in oil and gas. About $3 trillion in trade passes through it annually. U.S. access to Philippine bases could prove important in a war over Taiwan. China, whose claims to most of the sea were invalidated by an international tribunal in 2016, says Philippine vessels illegally intrude into waters surrounding disputed shoals. It has warned Mr. Marcos, who took office in June 2022, against misjudging the situation.

“This is brinkmanship, poker,” said Philippine legal scholar Jay Batongbacal. “Brinkmanship is taking things to the edge, trying to see who loses his nerve. Poker is a game of bluffing and deception — one could be doing both at the same time.”

In response to Reuters questions, China’s Foreign Ministry said the Philippines had been stoking tensions with “provocative actions at sea in an attempt to infringe on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights”.

China, it said, would defend its interests while handling the dispute peacefully through dialogue.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Manila’s transparency initiative had succeeded in calling greater attention to China’s “disregard for international law” and actions that endangered Philippine service members.

The spokesperson would not comment on the risk of U.S. military involvement but said the U.S. would support the Philippines if it faced economic coercion from China.

‘AWAKE AT NIGHT’

The conflict is over Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippine navy maintains a rusting warship, BRP Sierra Madre, that it beached in 1999 to reinforce Manila’s sovereignty claims. A small crew is stationed on it. Chinese ships have sought to block resupply missions, by encircling Philippine vessels and firing water cannons that in March shattered a boat’s windshield, injuring its crew. Manila released footage of the incident; China said it acted lawfully and professionally. In February, Philippine ships recorded Chinese counterparts placing a barrier across the entrance to Scarborough Shoal. This week, both sides traded accusations over a collision involving their vessels near Second Thomas Shoal.

Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela taunts Chinese officials and state media on X, sometimes posting drone footage of maritime clashes. “If I were doing anything incorrect, I would have been shut down,” he said.

Mr. Tarriela said the transparency drive had worked, by galvanising support for Manila while the threshold of China’s aggression had not changed, despite an increase in incidents.

“They are still depending on their water cannon … they are still stuck with that kind of tactic,” he said.

The number of Chinese vessels around Second Thomas Shoal during Philippine resupply missions has grown from a single ship on average in 2021 to around 14 in 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in January. Last month, China’s coast guard came within metres of the Sierra Madre and seized supplies air-dropped to troops stationed there, according to Philippine officials. China, whose navy patrolled nearby, said Filipino soldiers pointed guns at its coast guard; Manila said they just held their weapons.

Philippine officials say they fear a fatal accident could escalate into open hostilities.

“That keeps a lot of us awake at night,” the Philippines’ ambassador to Washington, Jose Manuel Romualdez, told Reuters.

Manila also wants to avoid the kind of economic pressure it faced around a decade ago, when protracted Chinese customs checks caused Philippine bananas to rot on Chinese docks.

China was the Philippines’ second-biggest export market in 2023, taking nearly $11 billion worth or 14.8% of all its shipments. China is the Philippines’ top source of imports, mainly refined petroleum products and electronics.

Mr. Romualdez said Manila hoped China would “see the value of continuing our economic activity while trying to peacefully resolve the issue”.

Edcel John Ibarra, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said Mr. Marcos risks provoking China into “a harder approach”, such as non-tariff barriers and tourism restrictions. He pointed to changes China announced in May that allow its coast guard to detain foreigners without trial for 60 days.

‘PARADIGM SHIFT’

The intensity of Manila’s campaign has surprised its neighbours. Vietnam and Malaysia, which also have maritime disputes with Beijing, have been more cautious about what they release from their skirmishes with China.

“We are all watching this and talking amongst ourselves,” said one Asian diplomat, who was not authorised to be named. “The Philippines has carved out a new strategy in standing up to Beijing over a point of friction.”

Mr. Marcos said in December that diplomacy with China had achieved little, calling on Southeast Asia “to come up with a paradigm shift”.

China’s state media have expressed irritation with the transparency push.

The Philippines has been “playing the victim to deceive international public opinions”, the state-backed Global Times said in an op-ed in May. A key aspect of Manila’s approach has been solidifying the U.S. alliance. Both countries made clear in May last year that their defence treaty also covers the coast guard. In April, Mr. Marcos participated in an unprecedented summit with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts.

A U.S. official involved in U.S.-China talks that month said Chinese officials have complained about these diplomatic breakthroughs behind closed doors, adding that Beijing was “feeling the squeeze”.

Some Chinese scholars, like Zha Daojiong, at Peking University’s School of International Studies, say the situation is at an impasse and that China will continue to be “essentially reactive” at flashpoints like Second Thomas Shoal.

“By responding to the Philippines’ action, I guess they want to keep the message that this shoal is in dispute,” he said.

Members of the media take footage of a Chinese Coast Guard vessel blocking a Philippine Coast Guard vessel on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The Philippines on April 27 denied a Chinese claim that the two countries had reached an agreement over an escalating maritime dispute in the South China Sea, calling the claim propaganda.

A spokesperson at China’s embassy in Manila said on April 18 that the two had agreed early this year to a “new model” in managing tensions at the Second Thomas Shoal, without elaborating.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on April 27 his department was “not aware of, nor is it a party to, any internal agreement with China” since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. Defence department officials have not spoken to any Chinese officials since last year, Mr. Teodoro said in a statement.

China’s embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Teodoro’s comments outside office hours.

Beijing and Manila have repeatedly clashed in recent months at the submerged reef, which Philippines says is in its exclusive economic zone but which China also claims.

The Philippines had accused China of blocking manoeuvres and firing water cannons at its vessels to disrupt supply missions to Filipino soldiers stationed in a naval ship which Manila deliberately grounded in 1999 to bolster its maritime claims.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion in annual ship commerce. Its claims overlap with those of the Philippines and four other nations. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague said China’s claims had no legal basis, a decision Beijing rejects.

Mr. Teodoro called China’s claims of a bilateral agreement “part of the Chinese propaganda”, adding that the Philippines would never enter into any agreement that would compromise its claims in the waterway.

“The narrative that unnamed or unidentified Chinese officials are propagating is another crude attempt to advance a falsehood,” he said.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar (left) shakes hands with Philippines’ Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo after holding a joint press conference at the Sofitel Hotel in Manila on March 26, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

India supports the Philippines’ sovereignty, said External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Manila, in comments that sparked a response from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which called on “third countries” not to “interfere”.

Mr. Jaishankar’s visit to Manila on Tuesday, where he met Philippines President Bongbong Marcos and Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo, is part of a three-nation five-day tour to Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia.

“I take this opportunity to firmly reiterate India’s support to the Philippines for upholding its national sovereignty,” said Mr. Jaishankar, reading his opening statement to the media during a joint press conference after talks with Mr. Manalo. He said that the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) was the “the constitution of the seas” and all parties “must adhere to it in its entirety, both in letter and in spirit”, in comments seen as aimed at China, whose Navy and Coast Guard have been frequently accused of violating sovereign waters of other countries and claiming islands. China’s actions have drawn protest from many Asian neighbours, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia in the South China Sea (SCS) region.

The External Affairs Minister also visited the Indian Coast Guard pollution-control ship ICGS Samudra Paheredar on Tuesday, that is on a port call in Manila until Thursday, and hailed maritime cooperation between the two countries. In a speech he gave on board the Indian ship docked at Manila’s South Harbour, Mr. Jaishankar said that the ship’s visit was “significant”, because it highlighted “shared challenges” that India and Philippines face on oceanic pollution, illegal fishing and protecting the environment in the region. He also underlined the need for “like-minded countries” in the Indo-Pacific region to enhance cooperation.

Mr. Jaishankar’s Manila visit came as tensions between the Philippines and Chinese navies rose to new levels over aggressive maritime moves by the Chinese Coast Guard against a Filipino ship meant to carry supplies to their troops aboard the BRP Sierra Madre ship in the Spratly Islands. On Monday, the Philippines Ministry of Foreign Affairs had summoned the Chinese envoy to protest the actions, including the Chinese Coast Guard ship’s physical blocking of the Philippines ship, firing it with a water cannon that injured three of its soldiers. The Chinese Coast Guard, meanwhile claimed that it was legitimately guarding “Chinese waters” from the “foreign vessel”.

Reacting sharply to Mr. Jaishankar’s comments in Manila within hours, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on India and the Philippines to “respect China’s territorial sovereignty”.

“Maritime disputes are issues between countries concerned. Third parties have no right to interfere whatsoever,” the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian said. “We urge relevant parties to squarely face the facts and truth on the South China Sea issue, and respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests and the efforts of regional countries to keep the South China Sea peaceful and stable,” he added.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs did not respond to requests for a response to the Chinese MFA’s remarks. Apart from the current controversy, Beijing is understood to be watching India’s sale of Brahmos missiles to the Philippines very closely, deliveries for which are expected to be begin shortly.

During talks with Mr. Manalo, Mr. Jaishankar said he discussed other areas of growing cooperation between the two countries including trade, capacity-building in digital infrastructure, regional issues including the Indo-Pacific, Myanmar, the Ukraine war and cooperation in common fora including the UN and Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). He said he had briefed the Philippines Minister on Indian naval deployment in the Red Sea to counter threats from Houthi militia and piracy. He also highlighted rescue operations, including those where Indian naval personnel have helped Philippines nationals on board ships in distress including the MV True Confidence and MV Lila Norfolk.

Manila:

The Philippines said Monday it had summoned a Chinese envoy over “aggressive actions” by the China Coast Guard and other vessels near a reef off the Southeast Asian country’s coast, while Beijing lodged its own complaint.

Beijing and Manila have a long history of maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea and there have been repeated confrontations between their vessels near disputed reefs in recent months.

The latest incident took place Saturday near Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands during a regular Philippine mission to resupply Filipino troops garrisoned on the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded navy ship. 

The Philippines said the China Coast Guard blocked its supply vessel and damaged it with water cannon, injuring three soldiers.

The China Coast Guard has defended its actions, describing them as “lawful regulation, interception and expulsion” of a foreign vessel that “tried to forcefully intrude” into Chinese waters.

On Monday, China’s embassy in the Philippines said it had complained to Manila over what it called the “illegal intrusion” of the Southeast Asian country’s ships into its waters.

Second Thomas Shoal is about 200 kilometres (120 miles) from the western Philippine island of Palawan, and more than 1,000 kilometres from China’s nearest major landmass, Hainan island.

Manila conveyed its “strong protest against the aggressive actions undertaken by the China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia against the rotation and resupply mission undertaken by the Philippines in Ayungin Shoal,” the Department of Foreign Affairs said on Monday, using the Filipino name for Second Thomas Shoal.

It said the Philippine embassy in Beijing also lodged a similar protest with the Chinese foreign ministry. 

“In these demarches, the Philippines stressed, among others, that China has no right to be in Ayungin Shoal,” the foreign affairs department said.

“The Philippines demands that Chinese vessels leave the vicinity of Ayungin Shoal and the Philippine exclusive economic zone immediately.”

It is the same location where there have been recent collisions between vessels belonging to both countries, as well as water cannoning by the China Coast Guard.

Cooling diplomatic relations

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, brushing off rival claims from other countries including the Philippines and an international ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.

The United States, which has a mutual defence pact with Manila, has denounced the attack.

It came days after visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States stood by its “ironclad” commitments to defend longtime ally the Philippines against armed attack in the South China Sea.

Philippine Defence Secretary Gilbert Teodoro on Monday challenged Beijing to seek arbitration, which he said was the “best way of solving a legal dispute sustainably”.

“That’s why they don’t like that,” Teodoro told reporters.

Relations between Manila and Beijing have cooled under Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos as he seeks to deepen cooperation with the United States and regional neighbours, while standing up to Chinese aggression towards Philippine vessels.

Chinese and Philippine officials agreed in January on the need for closer dialogue to deal with “maritime emergencies” in the South China Sea, including Second Thomas Shoal.

But Manila said Monday that China’s “aggressive actions call into question its sincerity in lowering the tensions and promoting peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

Despite the attack, Philippine officials said the damaged vessel and a coast guard escort ship that came to its aid later deployed rigid-hull inflatable boats to deliver its cargo and personnel to the Filipino outpost.

Filipino soldiers stationed on the shoal live on the crumbling BRP Sierra Madre and require frequent resupplies for food, water and other necessities as well as transport for personnel rotations.

Apart from supplies and equipment, the Philippine military said six navy personnel were delivered to the BRP Sierra Madre on Saturday, replacing one soldier who was recently evacuated on medical grounds.

The damaged supply boat and its escorts sailed back to port after completing their mission, the task force said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)