With less than a week to go before the Maharashtra polls, election fever is intensifying. Both major coalitions have unveiled their manifestos. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has introduced the “Batenge to Katenge” slogan and its refined version, “Ek Hai to Safe Hai“, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is relying on its familiar caste census strategy, promising to lift the 50% reservation cap.

Meanwhile, rebel candidates are flexing their muscles, aiming to disrupt both sides in this fierce contest. In a last-minute move to attract farmers facing agricultural distress, the MVA has promised a Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs. 7,000 per quintal for soybean.

After travelling across all six regions of Maharashtra, it remains difficult to determine which side holds the upper hand. The election has evolved into a hyper-local contest. Below are the findings from my journey:

Seat-By-Seat Contest

This election lacks a single overarching theme; instead, it comprises 288 localised battles. It’s a highly individualised contest where the image and accessibility of the incumbent MLA or candidate, local caste dynamics, power structures, and relationships outweigh manifesto promises and government performance. Voters are often undecided, and party symbols may not be significant. For instance, in Shrirampur, the Congress dropped a sitting MLA, who switched to the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction). The Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) has also fielded a candidate who was previously an MLA for two terms on a Congress ticket. All three main candidates share a Congress lineage.

Maratha vs. OBC, Dhangar vs. ST

The Maratha reservation demand has created a divide between Marathas and OBCs, particularly in Marathwada and parts of North Maharashtra. A clear Maratha vs. OBC polarisation can be observed in Manoj Jarange Patil’s stronghold, Marathwada, where the MVA led in 32 and the Mahayuti in 12 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, mixed signals from Manoj Jarangesuch as his withdrawal from the electoral race just 12 hours after announcing his support for specific candidates and accusations from his associates of colluding with Sharad Pawarhave somewhat weakened the movement.

Conversely, OBCs, including the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities, have rallied behind the Mahayuti after Pankaja Munde’s loss in the Lok Sabha elections. The potential inclusion of Dhangars in the ST list post-election has also caused tension. ST communities, wary of diminishing reservation quotas and disillusioned after the Supreme Court’s rejection of 100% reservation in gram panchayat jobs under the PESA Act, appear to lean towards the MVA.

Marathi vs. Gujarati Asmita

The MVA has invoked the Marathi asmita (pride) card, with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of undermining regional parties that represent the Marathi identity. While this Marathi-Gujarati rivalry might resonate in urban areas, it is less impactful in rural regions with fewer migrants.

The ‘Betrayal’ Factor

The betrayal narrative, which benefited the MVA in the general elections, has weakened, but it still holds some influence. Research indicates that while the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) captured 74% of the unified NCP vote, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena secured 56% of the undivided Sena vote. In Western and Northern Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar’s support remains strong and could be decisive, especially in head-to-head battles with the Ajit Pawar faction. His sharp criticisms of Chhagan Bhujbal and Dilip Walse Patil, whom he branded as traitors, have put these leaders on the defensive.

Uddhav Thackeray, however, does not enjoy the same leverage over Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. The Thackerays had delegated control of the Thane-Konkan region to figures like Anant Dighe, Eknath Shinde, Uday Samant, and Narayan Rane, weakening their influence. In the 2024 general election, the Mahayuti led 27-12 in Thane-Konkan assembly segments. In Mumbai, Uddhav also faces a tough challenge from the BJP, which has deep roots there, with the MVA holding a 20-16 lead in assembly segments during the Lok Sabha elections.

The Weakening MVA Hold On Muslim And SC Voters

In the general elections, the MVA had consolidated significant support among Muslims (74%) and Dalits (46%). However, parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are eroding some of this minority support. Additionally, parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Republican Party Of India (RPI), and smaller Ambedkarite parties are eating into the SC vote share. This weakening hold on Muslim and SC voters compared to the general elections is also reflected in the CSDS pre-poll report.

‘Laadki Bahin” Scheme

Women beneficiaries have shown positive responses to the “Laadki Bahin” Yojana, with around 80,000 women per assembly constituency receiving Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 7,500 over the last five months. It remains to be seen whether this will translate into votes, similar to the experience in Madhya Pradesh. Some women praise Shinde for the cash support, stating that politicians have historically looted state funds, and for the first time, someone is prioritising their needs.

However, other women are critical of the scheme due to high inflation, pointing out that the government is giving with one hand and taking away more with the other, thanks to rising prices of essential commodities. A small fraction also questions the timing of the scheme, likening it to voter bribery before the elections. Some men in families express dissatisfaction with the scheme, as the money is directed to women’s accounts instead of theirs.

Farmers’ Issues Significant, But Regional

Maharashtra’s economic paradox is stark: while it contributes 13% to the country’s GDP, it also accounts for 38% of farmer suicides nationwide. Mahayuti faced significant losses in Vidarbha, leading in only 19 seats compared to the MVA’s 43. Farmers struggling with severe agricultural and rural distress voted in large numbers against Mahayuti, protesting low crop prices. Additionally, in Nashik, farmers voiced anger over the ban on onion exports.

Rebels: A Disruptive Force

Rebels from various parties have filed nominations after being denied tickets, contributing to an average of 14.4 candidates per seat, up from 11.2 in 2019. Smaller parties and independents have historically held influence in Maharashtra, with an average of 25% vote share and winning 25-30 seats over the last five elections. While rebels may only win about 10% of seats, they pose a threat to the main parties by spoiling outcomes in many contests. In 2019, 71 seats were won by margins of less than 5%, and in 108 seats, the runner-up’s votes exceeded the winning margin.

Bread-And-Butter Issues Matter

Core issues such as inflation, unemployment, corruption, agricultural/rural distress, development, and infrastructure continue to shape the discourse. Whether these issues will significantly impact voting patterns or if emotional and identity-driven issues will dominate remains to be seen. The urban-rural divide further complicates electoral dynamics and analysis, with 45% of the state being urban.

MVA Loses Edge; Micro-Management Crucial

The advantage MVA had during the general elections has eroded over the past six months. Mahayuti’s course correction, including new schemes and manifesto promises, internal disputes among MVA partners over ticket distribution, and improved preparedness, have contributed to this shift. The contest has become highly competitiveessentially fifty-fiftymaking micro-management and election-day strategy critical for victory. Maharashtra has become a challenging battleground for pollsters and experts.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

With polling dates announced for November 20, all eyes are on the grand battle in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is anticipating a victory after delivering a shocking defeat to the Mahayuti coalition—consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP—in the general elections.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the MVA led in 153 assembly segments, while the Mahayuti was ahead in 126, falling short of the simple majority mark of 145. Meanwhile, buoyed by its recent victory in Haryana, the BJP is confident it can turn the tide through its cash transfer scheme for women and a focus on infrastructure development.

Maharashtra is divided into six regions: Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Marathwada, Thane-Konkan, and Mumbai. Each region has its own socio-political and economic dynamics. Vidarbha has 62 seats, North Maharashtra has 35, Marathwada 46, Western Maharashtra 70, Thane-Konkan 39, and the Mumbai region 36 seats.

A Kingmaker Region

It’s Vidarbha with its 62 seats that could be the kingmaker in this election. The contest here is predominantly between the Congress and the BJP. This region is home to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) headquarters and forms the eastern part of the state, encompassing the Amravati (formerly Berar) and Nagpur divisions. According to the 2011 census, Hindus make up 77% of the population, Muslims 8%, and Buddhists 13%. Notably, Vidarbha accounts for 46% of the total Buddhists in Maharashtra.

Economically, Vidarbha is underdeveloped compared to the rest of the state, facing significant poverty and malnutrition. The region’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, but since 2012, it has been grappling with severe drought conditions. Tragically, Vidarbha is a hotspot for farmer suicides, accounting for 50% of such cases in Maharashtra.

Historically, this region has seen close contests between the BJP and the Congress. In 1999, the Congress won 24 seats while the BJP secured 23. The numbers fluctuated in subsequent elections: in 2004, the BJP won 18 and the Congress 19; in 2009, the Congress took 24 and the BJP 19. In 2014, riding on a strong Lok Sabha performance and the Modi wave, the BJP swept the region, winning 44 seats, while the Congress was reduced to 10. This marked a significant rise for the BJP.

However, in 2019, the BJP’s tally fell to 29 seats while the Congress increased its count to 15. This decline was attributed to agricultural distress, farmer suicides, and factionalism between the different camps, leading to a statewide drop from 122 seats in 2014 to 105 in 2019.

Learning From The Lok Sabha Polls

In the 2024 general elections, the tables turned, with the Congress leading in 29 seats compared to the BJP’s 15. The MVA led in 42 seats against the Mahayuti’s 19, giving the former a significant 23-seat advantage. Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress won five and the BJP two, while the MVA secured seven and the Mahayuti three. In terms of vote share, the Congress received 32% votes, the BJP 30%, the MVA 45%, and the Mahayuti 42%. Notably, the Congress won five of the seven direct contest seats against the BJP.

How did the Congress achieve this success? The party capitalised on agricultural distress and farmer discontent in the region. Its promise of guaranteeing minimum support prices (MSP) resonated with farmers suffering from drought and suicides. Farmers in Vidarbha, once BJP supporters, became disillusioned due to low crop prices, high input costs, and below-MSP rates. Additional issues like unemployment and rising prices compounded the BJP’s challenges in this struggling region.

The Congress successfully formed a coalition with various social groups, including Dalits, Maratha-Muslim, and Kunbi communities, which backed the party and MVA candidates. Dalits gravitated towards the Congress due to concerns about potential constitutional changes and the end of reservations if the BJP crossed 400 seats.

Anti-incumbency sentiment also played a role, with established politicians facing backlash over non-performance, resulting in defeats by newcomers from the MVA. Additionally, urban strongholds of the BJP saw lower turnout, with even Nitin Gadkari experiencing a reduced victory margin compared to 2019.

A Kingmaker Region

Vidarbha represents 62 out of 288 assembly seats, constituting 22% of the house’s strength. Notably, BJP leaders Devendra Fadnavis and Nitin Gadkari hail from Vidarbha, as do MPCC Chief Nana Patole and Leader of the Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar. The NCP and the Shiv Sena have limited influence in the area.

Given that this region is also characterised by significant rural and agricultural distress, there could be heightened anti-incumbency against the Mahayuti coalition. Demographically, some social groups lean towards the Congress, making it essential for the BJP to address farmers’ grievances effectively.

However, the BJP is optimistic that initiatives like the Ladki Bahin, a cash transfer programme for women, granting constitutional status to the SC Commission, and raising the OBC creamy layer cap will help mitigate discontent in the region. Historically, the winner of Vidarbha has gone on to secure the state elections, a trend evident over the past five elections.

Home Minister Amit Shah has stressed the importance of winning Vidarbha to maintain power, and the BJP must reverse the trend observed in this year’s general elections. The recent victory in Haryana may bolster their confidence to achieve what seemed challenging just weeks ago.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author