The Eaton Fire destroys a structure, January 7, 2025, in Altadena, California.
| Photo Credit: AP

Holding long-term global warming to two degrees Celsius — the fallback target of the Paris climate accord — is now “impossible,” according to a stark new analysis published by leading scientists.

Led by renowned climatologist James Hansen, the paper appears in the journal Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development and concludes that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to rising greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought.

Compounding the crisis, Hansen and colleagues argued, is a recent decline in sunlight-blocking aerosol pollution from the shipping industry, which had been mitigating some of the warming.

An ambitious climate change scenario outlined by the UN’s climate panel, which gives the planet a 50% chance of keeping warming under 2C by the year 2100, “is an implausible scenario,” Hansen told a briefing Tuesday.

“That scenario is now impossible,” said Hansen, formerly a top NASA climate scientist who famously announced to the US Congress in 1988 that global warming was underway.

“The two degree target is dead.”

Instead, he and co-authors argued, the amount of greenhouse gases already pumped into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels meant increased warming is now guaranteed.

Temperatures will stay at or above 1.5C in the coming years — devastating coral reefs and fueling more intense storms — before rising to around 2.0C by 2045, they forecast.

They estimated polar ice melt and freshwater injection into the North Atlantic will trigger the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within the next 20-30 years.

The current brings warmth to various parts of the globe and also carries nutrients necessary to sustain ocean life.

Its end “will lock in major problems including sea level rise of several meters — thus, we describe AMOC shutdown as the ‘point of no return,'” the paper argued.

The world’s nations agreed during the landmark Paris climate accord of 2015 to try to hold end-of-century warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists identified the threshold as critical to preventing the breakdown of major ocean circulation systems, the abrupt thawing of boreal permafrost, and the collapse of tropical coral reefs.

The 1.5C target has already been breached over the past two years, according to data from the EU’s climate monitoring system Copernicus, though the Paris Agreement referred to a long-term trend over decades.

At 2C, the impacts would be even greater, including irreversible loss to Earth’s ice sheets, mountain glaciers and snow, sea ice and permafrost.

The authors acknowledged the findings appeared grim, but argued that honesty is a necessary ingredient for change.

“Failure to be realistic in climate assessment and failure to call out the fecklessness of current policies to stem global warming is not helpful to young people,” they said.

“Today, with rising crises including global climate change, we have reached a point where we must address the problem of special interests,” they added, stressing they were “optimistic” for the future.

Washington:

President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday announced the United States’ intention to withdraw from the Paris climate accord for a second time, a defiant rejection of global efforts to combat planetary warming as catastrophic weather events intensify worldwide.

The Republican leader also said his administration would declare a “national energy emergency” to significantly expand drilling in the world’s top oil and gas producer and scrap upcoming stringent pollution standards for cars and trucks, which he has derided as an “electric vehicle mandate.”

“President Trump will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord,” the White House said in a statement shortly after the Republican was sworn into office, without providing a specific timeline.

It would take a year to leave the agreement after submitting a formal notice to the United Nations framework that underpins global climate negotiations.

Even before the formal exit, the move delivers a serious blow to international cooperation aimed at reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Critics warn it could embolden other major polluters like China and India to scale back their own commitments.

It comes as global average temperatures over the past two years surpassed the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold for the first time, underscoring the urgency of climate action. 

“The US withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is unfortunate, but multilateral climate action has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s politics and policies,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and a key architect of the Paris Agreement.

More drilling, fewer EVs

Trump used his inauguration speech to preview a raft of sweeping energy-related federal orders aimed at undoing Biden’s climate legacy.

“The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will ‘Drill, baby, drill!'” Trump said.

“We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it,” he added. 

“With my actions today, we will end the Green New Deal, and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry.”

Trump’s mention of the “Green New Deal” may be a reference to the Inflation Reduction Act — Biden’s signature climate law that channels billions into clean energy tax credits –rather than a 2019 resolution of the same name, which never passed Congress.

Praise and scorn

Trump’s domestic actions were welcomed by energy industry leaders, who view the administration’s policies as a return to the era of “American energy dominance.” 

“The US oil and natural gas industry stands ready to work with the new administration to deliver the commonsense energy solutions Americans voted for,” said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. 

But they sparked immediate outrage from environmental advocates, who argue that doubling down on fossil fuel production ignores the pressing challenges of climate change. 

“This declaration is more proof that Trump doesn’t seem to recognize the real world,” said Athan Manuel, director of the Sierra Club’s land protection program, in comments to AFP. “The US is producing more energy, more oil and gas than any country has ever produced.”

Trump’s actions come despite overwhelming scientific consensus that the burning of fossil fuels has driven global temperatures to unprecedented levels, contributing to increasingly severe climate-driven disasters. 

Last year brought a barrage of destructive hurricanes, including Hurricane Helene — the second-deadliest storm to strike the mainland in over half a century — while this month, wildfires supercharged by climate change have devastated Los Angeles.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has hailed India’s contribution in the world’s fight against climate change and global warming, declaring that India is the only G20 nation to have achieved – before the deadline – climate goals committed at the Paris climate change conference in 2015.

The Prime Minister was speaking on the occasion of Independence Day celebrations, and delivering his address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort in Delhi.

The agreement he referred to is a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by 196 organisations and nations at a United Nations summit. In December last year the government said it had achieved its first two Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDC.

These were to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 per cent by 2030 from 2005 level; and to achieve about 40 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.

In 2022 India updated its NDC, according to which target to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP had been enhanced to 45 per cent by 2030 from 2005 level, and the target on cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources has been enhanced to 50 per cent by 2030.

People participate in a ‘March to End the Plastic Era’ rally on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, on Sunday, April 21, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Global leaders will gather in Canada’s capital this week to discuss progress in drafting a first-ever global treaty to rein in soaring plastic pollution by the end of the year.

The hoped-for treaty, due to be agreed at the end of this year, could be the most significant deal relating to climate-warming emissions and environmental protection since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which got 195 parties to agree to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celcius.

At the U.N. Environment Assembly in 2022, nations agreed to develop a legally binding agreement by the end of 2024 to address the world’s plastic pollution crisis. The treaty is set to address plastics through their entire lifecycle – from when they are produced, to how they are used and disposed of. But negotiators have a tough task in Ottawa, Ontario, with countries divided over how ambitious the treaty should be.

What’s the problem with plastics?

While plastic waste has become a global menace polluting landscapes and waterways, producing plastics involves releasing greenhouse gas emissions. The plastic industry now accounts for 5% of global carbon emissions, which could grow to 20% by 2050 if current trends continue, said a report last week from the U.S. federal Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Plastic production is on track to triple by 2060 — unless the treaty sets production limits, as some have proposed. Most virgin plastic is derived from petroleum.

What is the challange in Ottawa?

This week’s talks are set to be the biggest yet, with some 3,500 people registered to attend including lobbyists, scientists and environmental non-profits. But countries have become divided on the issues during three previous rounds of talks held in Punta del Este, Uruguay, Paris, France and most recently in Nairobi, Kenya.

At the Nairobi talks in November, the draft treaty under review ballooned from 30 pages to 70 as some countries insisted on including their objections to more ambitious measures like production limits and phase-outs. Countries are now under pressure to find common ground before the final negotiations are held in December in Busan, South Korea.

What are different nations saying?

Many plastic and petrochemical-producing countries including Saudi Arabia, Iran and China — known collectively as the group of Like-Minded Countries — have opposed mentioning production limits. They blocked other countries from formally working on proposed treaty language calling for production caps, chemical disclosures or reduction schedules after last year’s Nairobi session.

Meanwhile, the 60-nation “High-Ambition Coalition”, which includes EU countries, island nations, Japan and the UAE, wants to end plastic pollution by 2040.

Backed by some environment groups, this coalition has called for common, legally binding provisions to “restrain and reduce the production and consumption of primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels.” They also are proposing measures such as phasing out “problematic” single-use plastics and banning certain chemical additives that could carry health risks.

Refer: Explained | Enforcing the single-use plastic ban

The U.S. says it also wants to end plastic pollution by 2040. But unlike the High-Ambition Coalition, it wants countries to set their own plans for doing so, and to detail those plans in pledges sent regularly to the United Nations.

What do the petrochemical industry want?

The trade group Global Partners for Plastics Circularity represents major petrochemical producers, including members of the American Chemical Council and Plastics Europe.

The group argues that production caps would lead to higher prices and that the treaty should address plastics only after they are made. These companies want to focus on encouraging the reuse or recycling of plastics, and on developing the market for burning plastics as fuel, though a previous Reuters investigation found enormous obstacles in this method.

The group says companies should be allowed to disclose those chemicals used in production voluntarily.

What to corporates want?

More than 200 consumer-facing companies including Unilever, PepsiCo and Walmart have joined the so-called Business Coalition for a Plastics Treaty.

Like the petrochemical industry, these companies that rely on plastic packaging for their products have been a major presence in the plastics negotiations. However, they support a treaty that includes production caps, use “restrictions and phase-outs, reuse policies, product design requirements, extended producer responsibility, and waste management,” according to a statement ahead of the Ottawa talks.