From left to right, Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Aung Kyaw Moe, Philippine’s President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Laos’ President Thongloun Sisoulith, Laos’ Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Indonesian Vice President Ma’ruf Amin, and East Timorese Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao hold hands during the opening ceremony of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, on October 9, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Southeast Asian leaders met in Laos on Wednesday (October 9, 2024) for a summit expected to seek ways to address the worsening civil war in Myanmar, with Thailand calling for heightened engagement ahead of a planned election by the country’s embattled military rulers.

Chaos has prevailed in Myanmar since a 2021 military coup sparked a nationwide rebellion and a civil war that has ravaged the nation of 55 million. The ruling junta has so far refused to hold talks with its opponents, whom it calls terrorists.

Thailand has offered to host an “informal consultation” of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in December to try to find a way out of the intractable conflict that has displaced millions of people.

“ASEAN should send a unified message to all parties in Myanmar that there is no military solution. It is time to start talking,” Thailand Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra told a meeting of ASEAN leaders. “Thailand is ready to help.”

The junta is conducting a nationwide census to pave the way for an election next year, despite not having control over wide swathes of the country.

ASEAN has so far said little of the proposed election, which has already been widely derided as a sham, with dozens of parties — including the dominant National League for Democracy (NLD), whose government the military toppled — disbanded for not registering to run.

But Ms. Shinawatra hinted at Thailand’s support for holding the vote, saying “more political space and dialogue between parties are vital as Myanmar moves forward with elections”.

Within ASEAN, whose own peace plan for Myanmar has made scant progress, member states are divided between those who want the junta to do more, and those calling for more talks among warring parties, according to Thailand’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura.

“We hope that Myanmar should have internal consultation among all sides. And we encourage that. It has been our position all along,” Nikorndej told a briefing in Vientiane following the leaders’ summit.

In previous months, Thailand has suggested that Myanmar’s other influential neighbours, China and India, might play a role in the peace effort, a stance Ms. Shinawatra reiterated. “Thailand is strengthening the role of neighbouring countries of Myanmar to complement ASEAN’s effort,” she said.

“Virtually zero progress in efforts to get Myanmar’s junta to reduce violence”

Myanmar’s civil war and resolving disputes in the South China Sea are key issues set to dominate the ASEAN leaders’ meeting in Vientiane, which will be followed by two days of summits with premiers and top diplomats from regional and world powers.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are among those set to attend.

Opening Wednesday’s summit, Laos Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone said ASEAN faced many challenges and had its own ways to tackle them.

“Laos deems that ASEAN’s past successes are due to our understanding of each other,” he said. “We help each other, and co-operate with each other, with an ASEAN way and principles. “

Ahead of Mr. Blinken’s trip, the United States’ top diplomat for East Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, told reporters there had been “virtually zero progress” in efforts to get Myanmar’s junta to reduce violence, free political prisoners and talk to the democratic opposition.

Since ASEAN has barred the Myanmar generals from its summits until they can meet requirements of the peace plan, the country is represented in Laos by a senior Foreign Ministry official.

However, ASEAN must not bend to accommodate the junta’s demands, including recognising its own five-step “roadmap” for what is expected to be a one-sided election, former Thai diplomat Korbsak Chutikul warned.

“Care must be exercised not to be roped into going along with Myanmar’s own five-point plan, like to hold elections next year for a semblance of legitimacy,” Mr. Korbsak added.

Thailand is now led by a third Shinawatra as 38-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra was elected Prime Minister on August 18. Following in her billionaire father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck’s footsteps, Ms. Paetongtarn is the youngest and only second woman Prime Minister of the Southeast Asian monarchy.

Born on August 21, 1986, Paetongtarn — also known by her nickname Ung Ing — is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, a former telecom businessman-turned Prime Minister. After completing a BA in Political Science from the Chulalongkorn University, she switched streams and obtained a masters in International Hotel Management from the University of Surrey, England.

Ms. Paetongtarn, who grew up watching the dramatic rise and fall of her father in Thai politics, formally entered politics in 2021 as director of the Pheu Thai Party’s innovation and inclusiveness committee.

“I consult with my father on all issues, since I was young,” said Ms. Paetongtarn last year. The 75-year-old former Prime Minister received a royal amnesty in an eight-year sentence on charges related to corruption and abuse of power last week. However he still faces charges for “defaming” the monarchy.

Prior to politics, Ms. Paetongtarn was involved in her family’s business, holding a 28.5% stake in property firm SC Asset Corp. She was also the CEO of Rende Development Co, a hotel business run by her sister. In 2019, she married commercial pilot Pidok Sooksawas and has two children. She created waves by campaigning while being pregnant and gave birth just before the elections in May 2023.

In 2020, massive pro-democracy protests broke out across Thailand, demanding an end to the military rule that was imposed in 2014, after the toppling her aunt Ms. Yingluck’s government. As an active leader of the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), Ms. Paetongtarn was chosen as one of the three Prime ministerial candidates ahead of the May 2023 elections. She promised a mix of social and economic measures in her campaign including building high-speed rail and flood mitigation infrastructure, reining in the use of marijuana for recreational purposes and easing laws for the LGBTQ+ community.

Mixed result

The general elections threw up a mixed result, awarding the now disbanded Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, 151 out of 500 seats, the PTP, with 141 seats, came second. Mr. Pita allied with eight pro-democracy parties, including the PTP, to cobble together a coalition, but was blocked by the military-ruled 200-member Senate.

Taking the lead, the PTP then joined hands with 10 other parties, including military-backed United Thai Nation Party and Palang Pracharat Party. On August 22, 2023, Mr. Thaksin returned from a 15-year self-exile as the PTP nominated real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin as its PM pick. Ms. Paetongtarn was appointed the PTP’s leader as her father began making more public appearances.

Ms. Paetongtarn’s road to the PM post was cleared by a ruling by Thailand’s constitutional court, which dismissed Mr. Srettha as PM on August 14 for ‘gross ethical violations’ in appointing Ms. Thaksin’s former lawyer, Pichit Chuenban, to his cabinet.

Mr. Pichit had been briefly imprisoned for contempt of court in 2008 over an alleged attempt to bribe court staff. Within 48 hours of Mr. Srettha’s dismissal, Parliament was convened to vote on Ms. Paetongtarn’s candidacy. The newly-elected Senate, which has replaced all its military-appointed members, too, confirmed her appointment quickly, indicating the military’s support for the Shinawatras.

Faced with a bitterly divided Parliament, an overstepping judiciary, a slow-growing economy and her own inexperience, Ms. Paetongtarn faces a slew of challenges, including tackling a bitter power struggle between her party and the royalist-military factions of her coalition and delivering on the PTP’s promises. She also has to step out of her father’s long shadow if she wants to leave her imprint on governance while navigating the choppy waters of Thai politics.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters following a royal endorsement ceremony in Bangkok, Thailand, on August 18, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of the divisive former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, became Thailand’s Prime Minister after receiving a royal letter of endorsement Sunday (August 18, 2024), two days after she was chosen by Parliament following a court order that removed her predecessor.

She replaces another leader from the same Pheu Thai Party, at the head of a coalition that includes military parties associated with the coup that deposed the party’s last government.

Ms. Paetongtarn is the third Shinawatra to hold the job, after her billionaire father and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. Both were removed from office and forced into exile in coups, although Thaksin returned to Thailand last year as Pheu Thai formed a government.

She received the letter of appointment in a ceremony at the party’s headquarters in Bangkok, attended by senior members of parties in the governing coalition and her father, who has no formal role but is widely seen de facto leader of Pheu Thai.

The father and daughter arrived in the same car, holding hands as they walked in together with beaming smiles.

Ms. Paetongtarn thanked the king, the Thai people and lawmakers, saying she will perform her duties “with an open mind,” and will “make every square inch of Thailand a space that allows Thai people to dare to dream, dare to create and dare to dictate their own future.”

Ms. Paetongtarn became Prime Minister days after the Constitutional Court removed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, after less than a year in office. The court found him guilty of a serious ethical breach for appointing a Cabinet minister who had been jailed for contempt of court after an alleged attempt to bribe a judge.

Ms. Paetongtarn is also Thailand’s second female Prime Minister after her aunt, and the country’s youngest leader at 37.

PM Modi congratulates Thailand PM

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Ms. Paetongtarn and said he looks forward to working with her to further strengthen ties between the two countries.

“Congratulations @ingshin on your election as the Prime Minister of Thailand. Best wishes for a very successful tenure,” Modi said in a post on X.

“Look forward to working with you to further strengthen the bilateral ties between India and Thailand that are based on the strong foundations of civilisational, cultural and people to people connect,” he said.

Pheu Thai is the latest in a string of populist parties affiliated with Thaksin, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup, which triggered nearly two decades of deep political divisions that pitted a mostly poor, rural majority in the north that supported Thaksin against royalists, the military and their urban backers.

Parties linked to Thaksin won the most seats in every national election from 2001 until 2023, when it lost to the more progressive Move Forward Party.

Pheu Thai was able to form a government after Move Forward was blocked by the military-appointed Senate, partnering with former rivals in what was widely interpreted as a political bargain with the conservative establishment to stop Move Forward from forming a government.

The same day, Thaksin returned from exile and briefly reported to prison to for an eight-year sentence on charges related to corruption and abuse of power. He was moved almost immediately from prison to the hospital on grounds of ill health, and about a week after that the king reduced his sentence to a single year. He was released on parole in February after spending six months serving time in the hospital.

Since his release, Thaksin has maintained a high profile traveling the country, making public appearances.

On Saturday, Thaksin’s lawyer Winyat Chatmontree posted on Facebook that Thaksin was among the convicts granted a royal amnesty by the king on the occasion of his birthday in late July. It took effect Sunday, which means Thaksin is free ahead of his original parole schedule.

However, the amnesty does not protect Thaksin from an ongoing case for defaming the monarchy, which was indicted in June after being originally filed in 2016. It has been seen by some analysts as a warning from Thaksin’s enemies that he should tone down his political activities.

On the campaign trail in rural Thailand last year, Paetongtarn Shinawatra reminded voters of her influential billionaire family’s legacy of populism in what was her electoral debut.

The 37-year-old, who spent weeks at the hustings while visibly pregnant, delivered mixed results. Her Pheu Thai party came only in second in 2023’s election but cobbled together a ruling coalition after the vote-winner was blocked by military-backed lawmakers.

Now, the daughter of the country’s most divisive but enduring politician, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, will take the office her father and aunt once occupied, underlining her family’s central place in Thai politics.

On Friday, some 48 hours after Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was dismissed by a court order, Ms. Paetongtarn secured the parliamentary support required to replace him.

With that win, Ms.. Paetongtarn will become the youngest Thai Prime Minister and only the second woman to occupy the position, after her aunt Yingluck.

She will also seek to beat another recurring theme for the Shinawatra family: The governments led by her father and aunt were toppled by the military in 2006 and 2014, respectively.

“The country has to move ahead,” Ms. Paetongtarn, the youngest of Thaksin’s three children, told reporters after winning Pheu Thai’s nomination on Thursday.

“We are determined, together and we will push the country forward.”

Thaksin himself returned to Thailand last August after 15 years in self-imposed exile, just as Pheu Thai — the latest political vehicle of the former telecom tycoon — forged an alliance with military-backed parties to form a government.

It was an unlikely coming together of the populist Pheu Thai and the conservative-royalist establishment that have battled for supremacy in the country of 66 million people for over two decades, sometimes leading to coups and bouts of civil unrest.

Mr. Srettha was the fourth premier of a Thaksin-backed political party to be removed by a court ruling, a sign of the deep divide that still persists.

Into this breech will step in an untested Ms. Paetongtarn, who has never held an elected government position and has no administrative experience.

“She will be under scrutiny. She will be under a lot of pressure,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

“She will have to rely on her father.”

Father’s Long Shadow

Ms. Paetongtarn spent her childhood steeped in the country’s tumultuous politics as an ambitious Thaksin charted a meteoritic rise to wealth and then launched the Thai Rak Thai Party in 1998.

“When I was eight-years-old, my father entered politics. Since that day, my life has also been intertwined with politics,” she said at a speech in March.

Thaksin found his way to the premiership by 2001, and expanded spending on healthcare, rural development and farming subsidies — dubbed “Thaksinomics” for the poor.

He was ejected by a military coup in 2006.

Attending Bangkok’s elite Chulalongkorn University after his unceremonious exit, Ms. Paetongtarn – also known by her nickname Ung Ing – described that period as one of her toughest, when she was also accused of cheating.

“At times, I would see pictures of my father pinned to the wall, crossed out and drawn on,” she said in her March speech.

“At the age of 20, being surrounded by hate was very difficult to overcome.”

In less than two decades from that point, Ms. Paetongtarn, who is married and has two children, found herself as the face of her family-backed Pheu Thai party last year and one of its three prime ministerial candidates.

Last October, after the Pheu Thai navigated a circuitous route to forming the government, she was anointed the party’s leader.

“Pheu Thai will continue with its important mission in improving people’s livelihood,” she declared before hundreds of party members.

Ms. Paetongtarn’s relative inexperience has occasionally shown through.

In May, amid bickering between Mr. Srettha’s administration and the Bank of Thailand over interest rates, she said the central bank’s independence was an “obstacle” in resolving economic problems, drawing criticism.

At the corner office of Bangkok’s Venetian Gothic Government House, Paetongtarn will now likely have the guiding hand of her father to support her – as he always has.

“I consult with my father on all issues, whether on private matters or about work, since I was young,” Ms. Paetongtarn told Reuters last year.

“He has done this before. He was a prime minister.”