Stockholm:

The role of atomic weapons has become more prominent and nuclear states are modernising arsenals as geopolitical relations deteriorate, researchers said Monday, urging world leaders to “step back and reflect”.

Diplomatic efforts to control nuclear arms also suffered major setbacks amid strained international relations over the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual yearbook.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War,” Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said in a statement.

The research institute noted that in February 2023 Russia announced it was suspending participation in the 2010 New START treaty — “the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces”.

SIPRI also noted that Russia carried out tactical nuclear weapon drills close to the Ukrainian border in May.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped his nuclear rhetoric since the Ukraine conflict began, warning in his address to the nation in February there was a “real” risk of nuclear war.

In addition, an informal agreement between the United States and Iran reached in June 2023 was upended after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, SIPRI said.

– ‘Extremely concerning’ –

According to SIPRI, the world’s nine nuclear-armed states also “continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023”.

The nine countries are the United States, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.

In January, of the estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads around the world about 9,585 were in stockpiles for potential use, according to SIPRI.

Around 2,100 were kept in a state of “high operational alert” on ballistic missiles.

Nearly all of these warheads belong to Russia and the United States — which together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons — but China was for the first time believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” SIPRI director Dan Smith said.

He added that this trend would likely continue and “probably accelerate” in the coming years, describing it as “extremely concerning.”

Researchers also stressed the “continuing deterioration of global security over the past year”, as the impact from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza could be seen in “almost every aspect” of issues relating to armaments and international security.

“We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” Smith said, urging the world’s great powers to “step back and reflect. Preferably together.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Pakistan does not follow the “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons and the country’s deterrence capabilities can respond to all threats from the enemy, a former senior military officer has said, as he clarified Islamabad’s stance on the use of atomic weapons.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Adviser to the National Command Authority, was speaking at a seminar held at the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) on May 29 to commemorate Youm-e-Takbeer, the 26th anniversary of Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998.

Also read: The spectre of nuclear conflict, once again

The Dawn newspaper reported that Mr. Kidwai, who has served as the director general of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), said: “Pakistan does not have a No First Use policy, and I’ll repeat that for emphasis. Pakistan does not have a No First Use policy.” The NFU refers to a country’s stance and is regarded as an assurance that its nuclear arsenal is meant for deterrence, not fighting a nuclear war.

Islamabad has traditionally maintained ambiguity regarding its NFU policy.

“The Indian gung-ho leadership may like to think about it there should never ever be a doubt in anyone’s mind, friend or foe, that Pakistan’s operationally ready nuclear capability enables every Pakistani leader the liberty, the dignity and the courage to look straight into the Indian eye and never blink,” Mr. Kidwai said.

Mr. Kidwai said the full spectrum deterrence capabilities available to the Pakistani military were the combination of the conventional and most modern technology-based weapons capable of responding to all threats from the enemy, state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) news agency reported.

He added that the full spectrum deterrence helped in restoring the strategic balance of power that enforced peace in the region.

“In the past few decades, the robust nuclear capability of Pakistan has enforced peace in the region,” APP quoted Mr. Kidwai as saying.

Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, inside a deeply dug tunnel in the remote Chaghi mountain of Balochistan province, as a tit-for-tat response to India’s nuclear tests in the same month at the Indian Army’s Pokhran Test Range.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Kidwai also hinted at using emerging technologies to strengthen the country’s nuclear programme.

“Advancements in technology including what is referred to as emerging technologies will continue to make their way appropriately in Pakistan’s National Security calculus, and the nuclear programme will be stronger by benefiting from these,” he said.

He noted that Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) capability, while generally remaining within the larger philosophy of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), comprises horizontally of a robust tri-services inventory of a variety of nuclear weapons.

He said that the nuclear weapons were held on land with the Army Strategic Force Command (ASFC), at sea with the Naval Strategic Force Command (NSFC), and in the air with the Air Force Strategic Force Command (AFSC). Vertically, the nuclear spectrum encapsulates progressively increasing destructive weapon yields, and range coverage at three: strategic, operational, and tactical to 2,750 km to cover India’s vast Eastern and Southern geographical dimensions, including its outlying territories.

Lt. Gen. (retd.) Kidwai further stated that India’s Dynamic Response Strategy (DRS) is a clear reflection of the limits and constraints imposed by Pakistan’s robust nuclear capability on India’s strategic and operational options, and therefore, Pakistan’s strategic weapons, especially the Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs), are “weapons of peace”.

Director General of the Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) branch of the SPD, retired Brig Zahir Kazmi, highlighted some of the emerging threats and enduring threats to Pakistan’s nuclear programme.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the country would be ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty was threatened. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Russia remains in a state of combat readiness and is fully ready for a nuclear war, but not “everything is rushing to it” at present, President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published on March 13.

In an interview with state media, Mr. Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is nearly certain to win the March 15 to 17 presidential election, said Russia would be ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty was threatened. “From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready,” Mr. Putin told Rossiya-1 television and news agency RIA in response to a question on whether the country was ready for a nuclear war.

He said the United States understands that if it deploys American troops on Russian territory — or to Ukraine — Russia would treat the move as an intervention. “(In the United States) there are enough specialists in the field of Russian-American relations and in the field of strategic restraint,” Mr. Putin said, adding, “Therefore, I don’t think that here everything is rushing to it (nuclear confrontation), but we are ready for this.”

Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine

Mr. Putin reiterated that the use of nuclear weapons was spelt out in the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine, its policy setting out the circumstances in which Russia might use its weapons. “Weapons exist in order to use them,” Putin said. “We have our own principles.”

If the United States conducted nuclear tests, Russia might do the same, he added in the wide-ranging interview. “It’s not necessary … we still need to think about it, but I don’t rule out that we can do the same.”

However, Mr. Putin said Russia had never faced a need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, where the conflict has raged since February 2022. “Why do we need to use weapons of mass destruction? There has never been such a need.”