Meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Alliance of Sahel States
| Photo Credit: X@BakaryYaou

Junta-run Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have finalised plans to form a confederation after turning their backs on former colonial ruler France to seek closer ties with Russia.

Their Foreign Ministers met Friday in Niger’s capital Niamey to agree on a text establishing the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

“The objective was to finalise the draft text relating to the institutionalisation and operationalisation of the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)”, said Niger Foreign Minister Bakary Yaou Sangare as he read the final statement late Friday.

He said the text would be adopted by the heads of state of the three countries at a summit, without specifying the date.

“We can consider very clearly, today, that the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has been born,” Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said after meeting General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of Nigerien military regime.

The third Foreign Minister at the meeting was Burkina Faso’s Karamoko Jean-Marie Traore.

The Sahel region has been subject to deadly jihadist violence for years, which they accused France of not being able to curb.

The three countries said late January they were quitting The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which they said was under French influence, to create their own regional grouping.

The U.S. military has hundreds of troops stationed at a major airbase in northern Niger that deploys flights over the vast Sahel region where jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group operate. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The United States scrambled on March 17 to assess the future of its counterterrorism operations in the Sahel after Niger’s junta said it was ending its years-long military cooperation with Washington following a visit by top U.S. officials.

The U.S. military has hundreds of troops stationed at a major airbase in northern Niger that deploys flights over the vast Sahel region — south of the Sahara Desert — where jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group operate.

Also read: Explained | What led to the coup in Niger? Does it follow a wider pattern in the Sahel?

Top U.S. envoy Molly Phee returned to the capital, Niamey, this week to meet with senior government officials, accompanied by Marine Gen. Michael Langley, head of the U.S. military’s African Command. She had visited in December while acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland travelled to the country in August.

The U.S. State Department said on March 17 in a post on X that talks were frank and that it was in touch with the junta. It wasn’t clear whether the U.S. has any leeway left to negotiate a deal to stay in the country.

Niger had been seen as one of the last nations in the restive region that Western nations could partner with to beat back growing jihadi insurgencies.

The U.S. and France had more than 2,500 military personnel in the region until recently, and together with other European countries had invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training.

But that changed in July when mutinous soldiers ousted the country’s democratically elected president and months later asked French forces to leave.

Deteriorating relationships in Sahel

The U.S. military still had some 650 personnel working in Niger in December, according to a White House report to Congress. The Niger base is used for both manned and unmanned surveillance operations.

In the Sahel, the U.S. also supports ground troops, including accompanying them on missions. However, such accompanied missions have been scaled back since U.S. troops were killed in a joint operation in Niger in 2017.

It’s unclear what prompted the junta’s decision to suspend military ties. On Saturday, the junta’s spokesperson, Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, said U.S. flights over Niger’s territory in recent weeks were illegal. Meanwhile, Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s military rulers with their communications, criticized U.S. efforts to force the junta to pick between strategic partners.

“The American bases and civilian personnel cannot stay on Nigerien soil any longer,” he told The Associated Press.

After her trip in December, Ms. Phee, the top U.S. envoy, told reporters she had “good discussions” with junta leaders and called on them to set a timeline for elections in return for restoring military and aid ties. But she also said the U.S. had warned Niamey against forging closer ties with Russia.

Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have experienced two coups each since 2020, have turned to Moscow for security support. After the coup in Niger, the military also turned to the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help.

Cameron Hudson, who served with the Central Intelligence Agency and State Department in Africa, said the incident shows the diminution of U.S. leverage in the region and that Niger was angered by Washington’s attempt to pressure the junta to steer clear of Russia. “This is ironic since one mantra of the Biden Administration has been that Africans are free to choose their partners,” he said.

The U.S. delegation visit coincided with the start of Ramadan, a month of dawn-to-dusk fasting and intense prayer for Muslims. Niger’s junta leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, refused to meet them. A U.S. press conference at the embassy in Niger was canceled.

The junta spokesperson, speaking on state television, said junta leaders met the U.S. delegation only out of courtesy and described their tone as condescending.

Aneliese Bernard, a former U.S. State Department official who specialized in African affairs and director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors, a risk advisory group, said the recent visit had failed and the U.S. needs to take a critical look at how it’s doing diplomacy not just in Niger but in the whole region.

“What’s going on in Niger and the Sahel cannot be looked at continuously in a vacuum as we always do,” she said. “The United States government tends to operate with blinders on. We can’t deny that our deteriorating relationships in other parts of the world: the Gulf, Israel and others, all have an influential impact on our bilateral relations in countries in West Africa.”

Officers of the Niger national Police are seen outside the French Embassy in Niamey on August 28, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AFP

France’s ambassador to Niger landed in Paris on Wednesday, after weeks of tensions with the post-coup regime in the West African country who demanded his expulsion.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna met Sylvain Itte “to thank him and his teams for his work in the service of our country under difficult conditions,” the ministry said in a written statement to AFP.

The return of the ambassador comes two months after a coup in Niger ousted its pro-Paris president and prompted a souring in relations between France and its former colony, with Niger’s new rulers demanding his departure.

Itte left Niamey with six colleagues “around 4:00 am” (0300 GMT), a diplomatic source had earlier told AFP.

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron had announced in a TV interview that the ambassador would leave “in the coming hours”.

Niger’s military leaders — who overthrew the democratically elected president Mohamed Bazoum on July 26 — welcomed the announcement.

Born in the Malian capital Bamako in 1959, Itte had been in the post as ambassador to Niger for a year.

His diplomatic career spans 35 years and he was previously ambassador to Uruguay and Angola.

The Junta had told Itte to leave the country after they overthrew Bazoum and took away the envoy’s diplomatic immunity and visa.

But a 48-hour ultimatum for him to go, issued in August, passed with him still in place, as the French government refused to comply or to recognise the military regime as legitimate.

Paris had said that only Bazoum’s deposed government could order the envoy out.

Macron’s office reiterated France’s support for the ousted president on Wednesday.

He had told Hassoumi Massaoudou, foreign minister in the overthrown government, that France would continue to work “for a return to the constitutional order in Niger”, the Elysee Palace said.

Macron also announced in his Sunday TV interview that French troops would withdraw from Niger in “the months and weeks to come” with a full pullout “by the end of the year” — another demand of the Niger regime.

The French president, who had sought to make a special ally of Niger, said military cooperation was “over”.

France keeps about 1,500 soldiers in its former West African colony as part of an anti-jihadist deployment in the Sahel.

The coup against Bazoum was the third such putsch in the region in as many years, following similar actions in fellow former French colonies Mali and Burkina Faso in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

The earlier coups also forced the pullouts of French troops.

Macron said on Sunday that Niger’s post-coup authorities “no longer wanted to fight against terrorism”.

He also reaffirmed France’s position that Bazoum was being held “hostage” and remained the “sole legitimate authority” in the country.

The elected president has remained confined in the presidential palace with his wife and son.

The junta had welcomed Macron’s announcement on Sunday as “a new step towards sovereignty” but has said the timeframe for the military pullout “must be set out in a negotiated framework and by mutual agreement”.

Niger, like Burkina Faso and Mali, has been targeted by jihadist attacks for several years.

In recent weeks, tens of thousands of people have joined demonstrations and gatherings in Niamey calling for the withdrawal of the French troops from the country.

The United States, which has some 1,100 military personnel in Niger, has said it will “evaluate” its future steps on the crisis following France’s announcement.

The military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger on Saturday signed a mutual defence pact, ministerial delegations from the three Sahel countries announced in Mali’s capital Bamako.

The Liptako-Gourma Charter establishes the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Mali’s junta leader Assimi Goita posted on X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.

Its aim is to “establish an architecture of collective defence and mutual assistance for the benefit of our populations”, he wrote.

The Liptako-Gourma region — where the Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger borders meet — has been ravaged by jihadism in recent years.

“This alliance will be a combination of military and economic efforts between the three countries”, Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop told journalists.

“Our priority is the fight against terrorism in the three countries.”

A jihadist insurgency that erupted in northern Mali in 2012 spread to Niger and Burkina Faso in 2015.

All three countries have undergone coups since 2020, most recently Niger, where soldiers in July overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum.

The West African regional bloc ECOWAS has threatened to intervene militarily in Niger over the coup.

Mali and Burkina Faso quickly responded by saying that any such operation would be deemed a “declaration of war” against them.

The charter signed on Saturday binds the signatories to assist one another — including militarily — in the event of an attack on any one of them.

“Any attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one or more contracting parties shall be considered as an aggression against the other parties and shall give rise to a duty of assistance… including the use of armed force to restore and ensure security”, it states.

It also binds the three countries to work to prevent or settle armed rebellions.

Mali has, in addition to fighting jihadists linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group, seen a resumption of hostilities by predominantly Tuareg armed groups over the past week.

The escalation risks testing an already stretched army as well as the junta’s claims that it has successfully turned around a dire security situation.

The successionist groups had in 2012 launched a rebellion before signing a peace agreement with the state in 2015. But that accord is now generally considered moribund.

The renewed military activity by those armed groups has coincided with a series of deadly attacks attributed mainly to the Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist alliance Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM).

Mali’s junta pushed out France’s anti-jihadist force in 2022 and the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA in 2023.

French troops have also been pushed out of Burkina Faso, while Niger’s coup leaders have renounced several military cooperation agreements with France.

With the headquarters of the ruling party burning in the back, supporters of Niger’s ruling junta celebrate in Niger after a successful coup.
| Photo Credit: Fatahoulaye Hassane Midou

On August 30, Gabon’s president Ali Bongo Ondimba was ousted after mutinous soldiers launched a coup against his government. This comes after a coup in Niger a couple months back.

African nations have seen 220 coup attempts since 1950. Globally, 490 coup attempts were made during this period. So, Africa accounts for 44.8% for all coup attempts.

Of all African countries, Sudan has seen the most coups since 1950. In this period, the country saw 17 coup attempts.

There is a decreasing trend in coups worldwide. Data collected by U.S. researchers Jonathan M Powell and Clayton L Thyne on coups from 1950 to July, 2023 July shows that from a high of 12.3 coups per year on average between 1960 and 69, the figure fell to 2.44 for the decade 2010 – 19.

However, Africa stands out. In the 1950s, most coups occurred in Latin America. On an average, 4.1 coups happened in this region per year in this decade. In Africa, the figure was at 0.5. In the 2010s, Latin America saw no coup attempts, while Africa saw 1.7 per year on average. This is still lower than the 1950s average, but the highest among other regions for the 2010s.

After 2020, we see an uptick in total coup attempts. Four years – 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 (till July) – saw 14 coup attempts in total. This is against the 22 total coup attempts recorded in the whole decade between 2010 to 2019. In 2021 alone, seven coup attempts were recorded, the most since 2012. Six of them were in Africa

Not always a success

As per Powell and Thyne’s definition, a successful coup is one where the chief executive in power remains unseated for at least a week after the coup. Of the 490 coups that Powell and Thyne have recorded, 244 coups succeeded and 246 failed. In Africa, an exactly equal number of coups have failed and succeeded — 110 each. Since the 1980s, the number of successful coups have been lesser than failed coups. The 2020-23 period is an exception, with nine successful coups and five failed ones.

Why do coups happen in the first place? Holger Albrecht from the University of Alabama and Ferdinand Eibl from King’s College, London have studied who starts military coups and what their incentives might be. They stated that measures like increased military spending might discourage top-ranking military officers from starting coups. In the case of combat-level officers, they noted that increased social spending that reflects on their individual welfare might be an effective coup-proofing measure.

Also read |Explained: The coups in West Africa and the regional response

Some researchers say that the pandemic may have had an effect on the economy of countries, exacerbating public dissatisfaction with the ruling governments. Islamist insurgencies in the region add fuel to the flames, leading to coups against governments that cannot or will not tackle terrorists.

A supporter holds a t-shirt reading “France Must Go” as supporters of Niger’s National Council of Safeguard of the Homeland protest outside the Niger and French airbase in Niamey on September 02, 2023 to demand the departure of the French army from Niger.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Thousands rallied Saturday in the Niger capital Niamey to demand that former colonial ruler France withdraw its troops as sought by a junta which seized power in June.

The protesters gathered near a base housing French soldiers following a call by several civic organisations hostile to the French military presence in the West African country.

They help up banners proclaiming “French army leave our country”.

Niger’s military regime had fired a new verbal broadside at France on Friday, accusing Paris of “blatant interference” by backing the country’s ousted president, as protestors held a similar protest near a French base outside Niamey.

President Mohamed Bazoum, a French ally whose election in 2021 had stoked hopes of stability in the troubled country, was detained on July 26 by members of his guard.

Relations with France, the country’s former colonial power and ally in its fight against jihadism, went swiftly downhill after Paris stood by Bazoum.

On August 3, the regime announced the scrapping of military agreements with France, which has some 1,500 soldiers stationed in the country to help fight jihadism in the region — a move that Paris has ignored on the grounds of legitimacy.

The agreements cover different timeframes, although one of them dating from 2012 was set to expire within a month, according to military leaders.

The military rulers have also announced the immediate “expulsion” of the French ambassador Sylvain Itte and announced it was withdrawing his diplomatic immunity. They said his presence was a threat to public order.

But French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday hailed Itte’s work in Niger and said he was in the country despite being given a 48-hour deadline to leave Niger last Friday.