Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage during a rally after an assisation attempt on July 13, 2024 in Butler, Pennsylvania.
| Photo Credit: Getty Images via AFP

As he survived an assassination attempt by a whisker in Pennsylvania on Saturday evening, Republican Donald J. Trump’s image underwent an abrupt makeover. From defending charges of being an instigator and an authoritarian-in-waiting, he will now be seen as a target of political violence.

Mr. Trump’s defiant response in the face of death with his fist raised against the backdrop of an American flag could blunt his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s strategy of a counter polarisation, and reinforce his messianic claims. The bid on Mr. Trump’s life could derail the wobbly script that Mr. Biden struggled to put together after his meltdown in the presidential debate on June 27.

Also Read : Trump rally shooting LIVE

Mr. Trump is seen as a divisive figure of U.S. politics, but Mr. Biden’s re-election bid is also premised on polarisation. With the Democrat base itself conflicted over his politics, Mr. Biden has raised the decibel on rhetoric on domestic and international questions to unify his party. All that adds up to a very elementary claim that Mr. Trump would be worse.

On two polarising domestic questions that can unite the progressives, Mr. Biden has raised the stakes since the debate — gun control and abortion decontrol. The Biden campaign has sought to corner Mr. Trump on both questions. The battleground States that turned by narrow margins in 2016, and 2020, are being addressed on these two questions which would not only charge up the Democrat base but also potentially swing women voters from the Republican side too. Against the backdrop of his accelerating gaffe train, Mr. Biden amplified his messaging on these two questions, contrasting himself with Mr. Trump in stark terms.

‘Washington Playbook’

But this has not stopped the chatter about his fitness to run for another term. In fact, it is growing into a clamour, being repeated by Democrat seniors and American strategists across the political divide. Mr. Biden has sought to talk up the Russia-China axis in recent weeks — though he mistook Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for ‘President Putin’.

Mr. Trump’s first term had significantly disrupted what former President Barack Obama had described as ‘Washington Playbook,’ — the standard, usually militarised response to most global events. By confronting China and appearing friendly to Russia, Mr. Trump’s first term had disrupted this playbook.

Mr. Trump’s first term institutionalised rivalry with China in U.S. strategy, and Mr. Biden turned it into a new cold war by talking up the danger of an axis between Russia and China. This focus on Russia and China also helped Mr. Biden skirt two foreign policy setbacks under his watch — the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan without achieving the stated strategic goals and Israel’s war on Gaza that has scattered the Democrats.

On all these points, Mr. Biden’s claim of legitimacy has been that he is the most effective counter to Mr. Trump and his instincts. The stark scenarios that Mr. Biden portrays involve a double barrel polarisation — a U.S.-led world order threatened by an authoritarian Russia-China axis and the U.S. democracy threatened by fascism fuelled by MAGA [Make America Great Again] Republicans.

Mr. Trump is a common factor in Mr. Biden’s campaign narrative, which shows the former President as a stooge of Mr. Putin. The gunman in Pennsylvania has not merely dismantled this grand narrative of Mr. Biden’s claim of his own inevitability despite his infirmities but also reinforced the talking points of Mr. Trump.

Trump’s narrative

Mr. Trump has always claimed that he is a victim of a deep state conspiracy that undermined his first presidency, and thwarted his re-election in 2020. He has also, repeatedly, alluded to “a divine plan” in his politics — a theme that got an instant boost in social media chatter after his miraculous escape from the bullet on Saturday. Mr. Trump’s other talking points — American weakness, leftist conspiracies, and his claims of being a fighter and a true patriot, all fall in place for a perfect storm of a campaign for him on the eve of the Republican National Convention that begins on Monday in Milwaukee.

Mr. Trump presents himself as a strong leader and accuses Mr. Biden of being weak. By appearing unruffled and combative with blood dripping from his bullet injury, Trump can claim to have lived up to his boast. In the coming weeks, he is sure to use this to amplify his politics.

Police tape blocks a street in Bethel Park, Pa., that they say is near a residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter of former President Donald Trump, Sunday, July 14, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Law enforcement officials tell The Associated Press that bomb-making materials were found inside the vehicle of the man suspected in the Trump rally shooting. There were also bomb-making materials found at his home.

The two officials were not authorised to speak publicly and spoke to AP on condition of anonymity.

On the heels of an apparent attempt to kill him, former President Donald Trump called Sunday for unity and resilience as shocked leaders across the political divide recoiled from the shooting that left him wounded but “fine” and the gunman and a rally-goer dead.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee said the upper part of his right ear was pierced in the shooting. His aides said he was in “great spirits” and doing well.

“I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin,” he wrote on his social media site. “Much bleeding took place.”

In a subsequent post on Sunday, Trump said “it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.”

“In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win,” his post said.

The FBI early Sunday identified the shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, as it pressed its investigation. An FBI official said investigators had not yet determined a motive.

Secret Service agents fatally shot Crooks. The gunman attacked from an elevated position outside the rally venue at a farm show in Butler, the agency said.

One attendee was killed, and two spectators were critically wounded, authorities said. All were identified as men.

Investigators believe the weapon had been purchased by Crooks’ father at least six months ago, two law enforcement officials said. Federal agents were still working to understand when and how his son obtained the gun and to gather additional information about Crooks, the officials said.

The officials were not authorised to publicly discuss details of the investigation and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.

Rising political violence

The attack was the most serious attempt to kill a president or presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981. It drew new attention to concerns about political violence in a deeply polarized U.S. less than four months before the presidential election. And it could alter the tenor and security posture at the Republican National Convention, which begins on Monday in Milwaukee.

Organizers said the convention would proceed as planned.

Trump flew to New Jersey after visiting a local Pennsylvania hospital, landing shortly after midnight at Newark Liberty International Airport.

A video posted by an aide showed the former president leaving his private jet flanked by Secret Service agents and heavily armed members of the agency’s counter-assault team, an unusually visible show of force by his protective detail.

Biden, who is running against Trump, was briefed on the attack and spoke to Trump several hours after the shooting, the White House said. “There’s no place in America for this type of violence,” the president said. “It’s sick. It’s sick.”

Biden late Saturday cut short a weekend at his beach home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, to return to Washington.

Many Republicans quickly blamed the violence on Biden and his allies, arguing that sustained attacks on Trump as a threat to democracy have created a toxic environment. They pointed in particular to a comment Biden made to donors on July 8, saying “it’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.”

Officials said the counter-assault team killed the shooter. The heavily armed tactical team travels everywhere with the president and major party nominees and is meant to confront any active threats while other Secret Service agents focus on safeguarding and evacuating the person at the center of protection.

In an unprecedented verdict, a New York jury on May 30 unanimously convicted Donald J. Trump of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened to derail his 2016 presidential campaign. The trial, that led to the first-ever criminal conviction of a former U.S. President, could have a significant bearing on Mr. Trump’s voter support barely five months ahead of the U.S Presidential election where he seeks to recapture the White House.

The judge overseeing the case, Juan M. Merchan, set his sentencing for July 11 — just days before the Republican National Convention is set to convene to formally declare Mr. Trump as the presidential nominee. The conviction on 34 Class E felonies carries a potential penalty of four years of imprisonment for each count, although the judge may also consider probation or home confinement as possible alternatives. However, the conviction will not deter him from running for president for another term in the absence of any explicit constitutional bar.

The real estate tycoon faces three other felony indictments, but the Manhatten case — often criticised by legal experts as the weakest of the four prosecutions— is undoubtedly significant since it is the only one to conclude before the November election. The other three cases — two involving accusations in Atlanta and Washington that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election, and a federal indictment in Florida charging him with illegally hoarding top-secret records — are currently mired in delays and appeals.

Also read: Trump hush money trial LIVE updates

Reacting to the verdict, Mr. Trump said that he would be appealing the conviction while downplaying the allegations underlying the case. “It’s not hush money. It’s a nondisclosure agreement, totally legal, totally common,” he said. Addressing reporters at the Trump Tower in New York, the former president further claimed that the trial was “rigged” and a tactic of the Democratic party to derail his electoral bid.

The felony charges

The historic trial involved charges that Mr. Trump falsified business records in an attempt to cover up payments made to Stormy Daniels, a porn actor who claimed that she had a sexual liaison with the married former president in 2006. The $130,000 payment was made by Mr. Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen to buy Ms. Daniel’s silence during the final weeks of the 2016 presidential race — an attempt to interfere in the elections according to the prosecution. When Mr. Cohen was reimbursed, the payments were recorded as legal expenses in an “unlawful attempt” to disguise the true purpose of the transactions, the prosecution contended. However, the defense argued that they were legitimate legal retainer fees.

The trial, which featured more than four weeks of riveting testimonies, finally persuaded the 12-member jury that Mr. Trump had hatched a conspiracy with Mr. Cohen and David Pecker, the former publisher of The National Enquirer, to buy and suppress claims that could have jeopardised his candidacy. Jury deliberations are, however, confidential and the reasoning behind the ruling will remain unclear unless any of the jurors decides to speak publicly.

The 34 counts were divided into three categories — 11 related to invoices from Mr. Cohen showing payments made to Ms. Daniels, 11 related to checks signed by Trump or using his funds to reimburse Mr. Cohen and 12 related to accounting entries documenting these reimbursements in Mr. Trump’s financial records.

Editorial | In the dock: On Donald Trump and his legal challenge

From the moment Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced charges against the real estate tycoon more than a year ago, legal analysts questioned his unconventional strategy — it is not illegal to pay hush money and the misdemeanour counts were all barred by the statute of limitations. However, Mr. Bragg contended that the case was fundamentally about an attempt to corrupt the 2016 presidential election, not merely about past sexual encounters. He argued that this constituted a crime involving the violation ofSstate election laws aimed “to manipulate and defraud the voters, to pull the wool over their eyes in a coordinated fashion.”

Prosecutors were “successful at reframing this as essentially a disinformation operation on the 2016 election, not just the coverup of an affair,” Asha Rangappa, a lawyer and a former FBI agent told Time Magazine.

The trial

A major challenge for the prosecution was to establish Mr. Cohen’s credibility — the star witness of the trial whose loyalty Mr. Trump had lost. In 2018, he had pleaded guilty to multiple crimes involving the hush-money scheme, including lying to Congress and federal investigators. During the proceedings, the defense lawyer Todd Blanche told the jury about Mr. Cohen’s previous deceitful conduct, including an instance in which he allegedly stole from Mr. Trump’s company. However, prosecutors retorted by saying that Mr. Cohen was hired “because he was willing to lie and cheat on Mr. Trump’s behalf.”

Over the last couple of months, Mr. Trump has repeatedly targeted Mr. Cohen and the jurors in the case, despite a court-issued gag order that prohibits him from making such public statements. This resulted in Judge Juan M. Merchan holding him guilty of contempt of court and even warning that he might place the former president behind bars.

In the courtroom, the jurors were presented with a recording secretly captured by Mr. Cohen in September 2016. In it, Mr. Trump could be heard discussing a hush money payment to Karen McDougal, a Playboy model who claimed to have had a year-long affair with him. The evidence was further bolstered by Mr. Pecker’s testimony that he had agreed to ensure that unflattering stories which could damage the Trump campaign were never made public. This included having his company buy Ms. McDougal’s silence.

Notably, Ms. Daniels herself testified, offering a detailed account of her affair with the former president which began during a celebrity golf tournament on the shores of Lake Tahoe in 2006. In some of his most incriminating testimony, Mr. Cohen said that Mr. Trump and the then Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg had discussed Ms. Daniel’s payment plan in a January 2017 meeting shortly before Mr. Trump’s inauguration as the president. 

“To keep the loyalty and to do the things that he had asked me to do, I violated my moral compass, and I suffered the penalty, as has my family,” Mr. Cohen told the jury in a candid confession.

Although Mr. Trump did not take the stand during the proceedings, his lawyers denied the sexual encounters and argued that his celebrity status, particularly during the 2016 campaign, made him susceptible to extortion attempts. They claimed that the hush money deals were motivated by personal considerations such as the impact on his family and his business, and not political ones.

What happens next?

With Mr. Trump set to appeal his conviction, the American electorate will be left with two distinct choices — a convicted felon or an unpopular incumbent. Although he remains highly competitive in polls, a poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consult earlier this year found that 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republican if he were convicted. Concurring with this, former prosecutor and government ethics expert Melanie Sloan told Al Jazeera the conviction could “drive a wedge” between Mr. Trump and more moderate constituencies.

The sentencing, set for July 11, will be preceded by the submission of a pre-sentencing report with recommendations based on the defendant’s criminal history. Given that Mr. Trump has no prior convictions, this is likely to work in his favour.

The ruling is also unlikely to dampen his chances of contesting the presidential elections. The U.S. Constitution sets very few eligibility criteria for presidents — they must be at least 35 years old, be a “natural born” citizen and should have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years. While some States prohibit felons from running for sState and local offices, these laws do not apply to federal offices.

However, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment arguably sets out another criterion — it bars those who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” after taking an oath to support the Constitution from holding federal offices. Activists have pointed out that the then-president’s actions in the run-up to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol constitute participation in an insurrection. However, the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year ruled that Congress would have to pass a special law invoking this prohibition before it can bar Mr. Trump from Colorado’s ballot.

As a convicted felon in New York but a resident of Florida, Mr. Trump’s ability to exercise his franchise depends on the sentence that is imposed on him — and when or if he completes it. Under Florida law, a person with a felony conviction from another State is ineligible to vote only “if the conviction would make the person ineligible to vote in the State where the person was convicted.” New York is one of 23 states where people convicted of a felony can vote, even if they are on parole or probation, as long as they are not incarcerated.

“After New York goes through their process, whether President Trump can vote with a felony conviction will depend on what the State of Florida does,” Neil Volz, deputy director of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition told The Guardian. “Our belief is that no one should be above the law or below the law when it comes to voter eligibility for people with convictions and that everyone should operate under the same set of standards,” he added.