Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling party opened official campaigning Monday (September 22, 2025) to find his replacement who can restore political stability and voter support for the beleaguered Liberal Democrats.

Five candidates are vying for the Liberal Democratic Party’s top job ahead of a highly unpredictable vote in early October. The race has a slogan: “Change, LDP.” The winner must act quickly to address rising prices if the party is to have any chance of winning back support following devastating losses to both the LDP and its junior partner Komeito in the past year that deprived their coalition of a majority in either house of parliament.

Its new leader is still likely to be Prime Minister because the LDP remains the No. 1 party, while opposition groups are too splintered to form a coalition.

Whoever becomes the LDP leader must also gain cooperation from main opposition parties or risk facing constant no-confidence motions and a cycle of short-lived leadership.

Vote for LDP parliamentarians and members

The October 4 vote is not open to the general public. It is limited to 295 LDP parliamentarians and 1 million dues-paying grassroots party members. That’s less than 1% of Japan’s eligible voters.

A candidate who secures a majority becomes a party leader. If nobody wins a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates in the first round.

To be elected as Prime Minister, the new party leader will need votes from some opposition lawmakers in a parliamentary leadership vote, to be held within days.

5 serving and former ministers in the race

All five candidates are incumbent and former Cabinet ministers. They call themselves moderate conservatives as they emphasise their willingness to work with opposition groups. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi are considered the top contenders.

Here’s a rundown of the candidates:

Shinjiro Koizumi, 44: The son of a popular former Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, makes his second bid after running against Mr. Ishiba last year when he campaigned to reform the scandal-laden party. As agriculture minister for Mr. Ishiba, Mr. Koizumi released an emergency rice stockpile to lower prices and stabilise supply. Mr. Koizumi vowed to rebuild his party and listen to the people’s voices more closely to address their concerns, such as rising prices, growing foreign population and public safety. If elected, he will be Japan’s youngest leader since Hirobumi Ito, who in 1885 became the first Japanese premier at 44.

Sanae Takaichi, 64: A protégée of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ms. Takaichi lost to Mr. Ishiba last year in the runoff. A wartime history revisionist and China hawk, she regularly visits Yasukuni Shrine seen by Beijing and Seoul as a symbol of militarism. She supports more public spending and investment for growth and a strong military. She backs paternalistic family values and opposes a female emperor, as well as a revision to civil law to allow an option of keeping separate surnames for married couples — a change sought by rights groups so that women aren’t pressured into abandoning their names.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64: Chief Cabinet secretary of Mr. Ishiba’s government, Mr. Hayashi is a moderate who promises steady wage increases, a strong economy and defence. He has served in a number of other key Cabinet posts, including foreign, defence and education ministers. The Harvard-educated politician is fluent in English. He sings and plays the guitar and piano in a pop band Gi!ns, which he formed with three fellow parliamentarians to make politics approachable.

Toshimitsu Motegi, 69: Another Harvard graduate, Mr. Motegi has served in key posts including foreign and trade ministers and is known as a tough trade negotiator during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term. Mr. Motegi said the Japan-U.S. alliance is key to his country’s diplomacy and that deepening the “relationship of trust” with Trump is essential.

Takayuki Kobayashi, 50: A former economic security minister who promises strong growth, defence and national unity, Kobayashi is ultra-conservative and may split votes with Ms. Takaichi. Nicknamed Koba-Hawk, he promises tougher restrictions on foreign workers and says Japan’s defence spending target of 2% of GDP is insufficient.

A first female Prime Minister?

If elected, Ms. Takaichi, an ex-newscaster whose role model is former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, will be Japan’s first female Prime Minister. The country ranks near the bottom internationally for gender equality, especially in politics.

Some experts worry that the hardline conservative would set back women’s advancement. Others say her revisionist views of Japan’s wartime history may complicate ties with Beijing and Seoul.

In a policy speech on Friday (September 19, 2025), Ms. Takaichi said she wants good ties with China, as an important neighbour and that her harsh comments about China are mostly related to economics. She did not say she would visit Yasukuni if she became Prime Minister but stressed her “gratitude” for those who sacrificed their lives for the country and are enshrined at Yasukuni.

Cooperation with opposition is key

Cooperation with opposition parties is vital as Japan faces a tense security environment and Trump is now expected to demand greater defence spending, experts say. While still uncertain, cooperation between the ruling coalition and key opposition focusing on security is possible and could contribute to political stability.

The new LDP leader and Prime Minister will need help from either or both of the centre-right opposition groups, the Japan Innovation Party, or Ishin, and the Democratic Party for the People, with which the LDP has collaborated on budget bills.

Mr. Koizumi has approached Ishin and in August visited Osaka Expo, where he was escorted by party leader and Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura. Mr. Hayashi reportedly met with a senior Ishin lawmaker over dinner recently, while Mr. Motegi announced his willingness to form a coalition with the two parties.

Published – September 22, 2025 08:36 am IST

Japan’s outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida leaves the prime minister’s office in Tokyo on October 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned with his Cabinet on Tuesday (October 1, 2024), paving the way for his likely successor Shigeru Ishiba to take office.

Mr. Kishida took office in 2021 but is leaving so his party can have a fresh leader after his government was dogged by scandals. Mr. Ishiba plans to call a parliamentary election for October 27 after he is formally chosen as Prime Minister later in the day.

“I believe it is important to have the new administration get the public’s judgment as soon as possible,” Mr. Ishiba said Monday in announcing his plan to call a snap election. Opposition parties criticised Mr. Ishiba for allowing only a short period of time for his policies to be examined and discussed in parliament before the national election.

Mr. Ishiba was chosen as the governing Liberal Democratic Party’s leader on Friday (September 27, 2024) to replace Kishida, who announced in August he would resign at the end of his three-year term.

Mr. Ishiba is assured of becoming prime minister later Tuesday in a vote by parliament because it is dominated by his party’s ruling coalition.

Mr. Kishida and his ministers stepped down at a Cabinet meeting in the morning, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said. Mr. Kishida left his office after a brief send-off ceremony in which he was presented a bouquet of red roses and applauded by his staff and former Cabinet members.

“As we face a critical moment in and outside the country, I earnestly hope key policies that will pioneer Japan’s future will be powerfully pursued by the new Cabinet,” Mr. Kishida said in a statement, citing the need to bolster security amid a deepening global divide, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, while tackling a declining birthrate and population, as well as economic and political reforms at home.

Mr. Ishiba earlier announced his party’s leaders ahead of naming his Cabinet, once he becomes prime minister. Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who came in third in the party leadership race, will head the party’s election task force. He is expected to name defence experts Takeshi Iwaya as foreign minister and Gen Nakatani as defense chief.

The majority of his Cabinet ministers, like Mr. Ishiba, are expected to be unaffiliated with factions led and controlled by party heavyweights, and none are from former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s powerful group linked to damaging scandals.

Mr. Ishiba’s lack of stable power base could also mean a fragility of his government, and “could quickly collapse” even though Mr. Ishiba hopes to build up party unity as it prepares for the upcoming election, the liberal-leaning Asahi newspaper said.

The move is also seen as a revenge by Ishiba, who was largely pushed to the side during most of Abe’s reign.

Mr. Ishiba has proposed an Asian version of the NATO military alliance and more discussion among regional partners about the use of the U.S. nuclear deterrence. He also suggested a more equal Japan-U.S. security alliance, including joint management of U.S. bases in Japan and having Japanese Self Defence Force bases in the United States.

Mr. Ishiba outlined his views in an article to the Hudson Institute last week. “The absence of a collective self-defence system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defence. Under these circumstances, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies,” he wrote.

Mr. Ishiba proposes combining of existing security and diplomatic groupings, such as the Quad and other bilateral and multilateral frameworks involving the United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and the Philippines.

He also noted that the Asian version of NATO can also consider sharing of the control of U.S. nuclear weapons in the region as a deterrence against growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

Mr. Ishiba on Friday stressed Japan needs to reinforce its security, noting recent violations of Japanese airspace by Russian and Chinese warplanes and repeated missile launches by North Korea.

He pledged to continue Kishida’s economic policy aimed at pulling Japan out of deflation and achieving real salary increases, while tackling challenges such as Japan’s declining birthrate and population and resilience to natural disasters.

The LDP has had a nearly unbroken tenure governing Japan since World War II. The party members may have seen Ishiba’s more centrist views as crucial in pushing back challenges by the liberal-leaning opposition and winning voter support as the party reels from corruption scandals that drove down Mr. Kishida’s popularity.

Mr. Ishiba, first elected to parliament in 1986, has served as defence minister, agriculture minister and in other key Cabinet posts, and was LDP secretary general under Abe.

Shigeru Ishiba waves hands at his supporters after he was elected as new head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP), during the party’s leadership election on September 27, 2024, in Tokyo.
| Photo Credit: AP

Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba won an election to lead Japan’s governing party on Friday (September 27, 2024) and will become the new Prime Minister next week.

The party leadership win is a ticket to the top job because the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) ruling coalition currently controls Parliament.

Considered a defence policy expert, Mr. Ishiba has proposed an Asian version of the NATO military alliance and a more equal Japan-U.S. security alliance. Mr. Ishiba is a supporter of Taiwan’s democracy. He calls for an establishment of a disaster management agency in one of the world’s most disaster-prone country.

A record nine candidates, including two women, ran in a vote decided by the party’s lawmakers and grassroots members.

No one won a majority in the first round of voting, forcing a runoff between Mr. Ishiba and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative who ran against Fumio Kishida in 2021. Ms. Takaichi would have become Japan’s first female Prime Minister.

The current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been dogged by party corruption scandals, and the LDP was looking for a fresh leader in hopes of regaining public trust before a looming general election.

The vote was limited to LDP members of Parliament and about one million dues-paying party members. That’s only 1% of the country’s eligible voters.

Past votes were often determined by the party’s powerful faction leaders, but all but one of the six factions have announced their dissolution following the corruption scandals.

There’s widespread worry among experts that the removal of faction support could return Japan to an era similar to the early 2000s, which saw “revolving door” leadership changes and political instability.

A succession of short-lived governments hurts Japanese Prime Ministers’ ability to set up long-term policy goals or develop trusted relations with other leaders.

On Tuesday (October 1, 2024), Fumio Kishida and his Cabinet Ministers will resign. Mr. Ishiba, after being formally elected in a Parliamentary vote, will then form a new Cabinet later in the day.

The main Opposition — the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — has struggled to build momentum, despite the LDP scandals. But experts say its newly elected leader, centrist former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is pushing a conservative shift for the party, could trigger a broader political regroupings.