The political dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which appeared almost unassailable after 2014, is beginning to show cracks. The 2024 general election was an important setback: the party lost its parliamentary majority and had to depend on its allies to form the government. Since then, disillusionment has acquired greater political salience through youth protests, rising prices, unemployment and failures of governance, particularly irregularities in the education and examination systems. To these can be added the defeat of the Constitutional Amendment Bill on delimitation and women’s reservation in April, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protests that led to the resignation of the then Union Education Minister and the complete washout of the monsoon session of Parliament, as both the Prime Minister and Home Minister stayed away. Questions over accountability for the excessive police action against student protesters on July 20, compounded by the absence of the two leaders from Parliament, reinforced the impression of a government unwilling to answer for its actions.

But these setbacks do not by themselves amount to an erosion of hegemony. The BJP remains a formidable political force, retaining a substantial electoral base and considerable ideological appeal. What is now at issue is whether the forces that produced the BJP’s dominance are beginning to encounter limits. Uttar Pradesh is where this can be most clearly tested.

The citadel of the party’s power, 2024 result

U.P. is not merely India’s most populous State; it is the citadel of BJP power, central to the party’s rise to national prominence. In the 2014 general election, the BJP won 71 of the State’s 80 seats, establishing it as a crucial pillar of its national power. In the 2019 general election, it won 62 seats on its own despite the formidable alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The State’s electoral weight was thus instrumental to its successive parliamentary majorities at the Centre. U.P. is still the crucible of the BJP’s majoritarian politics and its Hindu-Muslim mobilisation. A weakening of the BJP here would therefore have implications far beyond the State.

The 2024 general election strongly indicates that the BJP had lost ground in U.P. Its tally fell from 62 seats in 2019 to 33, while the SP won 37 and the Congress six. The sharpest erosion occurred in Awadh, once the heartland of the Ayodhya temple movement. In 2022, the BJP won 101 of Awadh’s 154 Assembly seats. In 2024, it was leading in only 51 of those Assembly segments — 50 fewer than the number it had won in 2022.

The timing made the 2024 general election result extremely significant. It followed the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which was the culmination of a political and cultural project that had animated the BJP and the wider Hindu right for decades. Yet, the inauguration did not produce the electoral impact that might have been expected: most strikingly, the BJP lost the Faizabad seat, which includes Ayodhya itself. It also lost in many constituencies around it. This does not mean that Ayodhya or the majoritarian politics surrounding it has ceased to matter. The consequential point is that it was no longer enough to win elections even in the movement’s heartland. The fact that the erosion was most visible in this region adds to its significance, given the subsequent controversy over donations to the temple. The episode, whose effects are still being felt across the State, showed that even powerful ideological symbols are not beyond questions of integrity.

This matters because the BJP’s political hold in U.P. has rested on a combination of communal mobilisation, a durable electoral base and social coalitions built around the temple campaign. The 2024 general election showed that this alignment could be disrupted. Its longer-term implications will depend on whether that disruption proves temporary or marks a lasting shift in the electorate’s preferences and expectations.

Some of the prominent fault lines

The 2024 result also suggests that voters are becoming less willing to let a single dimension of politics overwhelm all others, especially when claims of economic performance do not match the realities on the ground. U.P. remains among the poorer-performing economies of the north and east — as it has for decades. Its economy has grown, but growth has not fundamentally altered its relative economic position or generated enough productive employment. The gap between the rhetoric of transformation and economic experience on the ground is particularly visible in the State’s industrial clusters. In Kanpur, Firozabad, Bhadohi and Moradabad, exporters have faced serious disruption from the tariff regime of the United States, and the duties raised on Indian goods, with falling orders, shrinking market access and risks to employment, principally among temporary and contract workers.

The frustration among young voters is strikingly evident in the precarity of employment and recruitment. Many were actively involved in the anti-National Eligibility cum Entrance Test protests earlier in the year. U.P. has seen repeated examination leaks and cancellations. In 2024, the police constable examination, taken by around 48 lakh candidates for 60,244 posts, was cancelled following a paper leak. The Review Officer/Assistant Review Officer examination was similarly cancelled amid allegations of irregularities, where out of a total of 10.76 lakh registered candidates, about 6.8 lakh candidates appeared, competing for just 411 posts. For a generation that invests years in its preparation for scarce government jobs, such failures are not merely administrative lapses. They can mean the loss of money spent on coaching and applications, income and opportunity in a State where government employment remains a highly valued path to economic security.

The battle lines are being drawn

In these circumstances, the 2027 U.P. election is likely to be more closely contested than those that the BJP has faced in the State in recent years. The party remains the strongest contender, but the 2024 result has opened space for the Opposition and revealed strains at various levels that were barely perceptible in earlier elections. The government is working overtime to address the gap on several fronts, reflected in a slew of measures to promote local entrepreneurship and provide stipends for students in corporate and technical institutions.

It is also set to introduce new schemes for women, such as the Mahila Udyami Credit Yojana, under which around one crore women associated with self-help groups are expected to receive interest-free credit of up to ₹1 lakh in stages. The Opposition, too, sees an opening. Both the SP and the Congress are seeking to strengthen their appeal among younger voters, with their leaders, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, focusing on student unrest, unemployment and widening caste fault lines, particularly divisions among upper castes and between them and the Other Backward Classes. Convergence between the two parties, as in 2024, could bolster the Opposition’s chances in the 2027 U.P. election.

The 2027 election will therefore reveal more than the BJP’s ability to recover lost seats. It will show whether the political template that carried the party to power from Lucknow to New Delhi still commands the same electoral force. The 2024 result has already shown that this template is no longer invulnerable in U.P. The 2027 election will determine whether the shift revealed in 2024 becomes more durable. What happens in U.P. could therefore alter the political balance on which the BJP’s national dominance has rested.

Zoya Hasan is Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Published – September 18, 2026 12:16 am IST

Opposition Members protest in the Lok Sabha on August 11, 2025. Photo: Sansad TV via PTI

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman speaks in the Lok Sabha on August 8, 2025. Photo: Sansad TV via PTI

Parliament Session Live:

The Waqf (Amendment) Bill, which will amend the law governing Waqf boards, is likely to be introduced in the Parliament today. The bill aims to rename the Waqf Act, 1995, as the Unified Waqf Management, Empowerment, Efficiency and Development Act, 1995.

It also seeks to omit Section 40 of the current law relating to the powers of the Board to decide if a property is Waqf property. It provides for a broad-based composition of the Central Waqf Council and the State Waqf Boards and ensures the representation of Muslim women and non-Muslims in such bodies.

The monsoon session of Parliament commenced on July 22 and is scheduled to conclude on August 12.

Here are live updates on the Parliament Session:

The discussion on the Union Budget 2024-25, presented on July 23, will continue in both Houses of Parliament on Thursday.

The discussion on Budget of Jammu and Kashmir, 2024-25, which was also presented on Tuesday, will also continue today.

Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Jitendra Singh, Arjun Ram Meghwal and Kirtivardhan Singh will lay papers on the table today.

Union Minister Sukanta Majumdar is likely to make a statement regarding status of implementation of recommendations and observations contained in the 250th report of the department-related parliamentary standing committee on Home Affairs on action taken by the government on the recommendations and observations contained in the 243rd report of the committee on demands for grants (2023-24) of the Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region.

-ANI

Congress MP Manish Tewari gave an adjournment notice on Thursday in the Lok Sabha, urging discussion on the border situation and huge trade deficit with China.

In his letter to the Secretary-General of Lok Sabha, Tewari highlighted ongoing border clashes between India and China and pointed out that China recently rejected the inauguration of the Seva tunnel and claimed parts of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory.

“…For the purpose of discussing a definite matter of urgent importance that this House do supend zero hour and relevant rules relating to question hour and other businesses of the day to have a discussion on the border situation and the huge trade deficit with China,” the letter mentioned.

“Since 2019, there have been ongoing border clashes between India and China, with reports of Chinese troops blocking access to patrolling points in Eastern Ladakh. Recently, China rejected the inauguration of the Seva tunnel and claimed parts of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory,” the letter added.

-ANI

The shift to renewable energy could lead to new vulnerabilities in the supply chains for solar panels and critical minerals, the Economic Survey 2023-24 said. File (representational image)
| Photo Credit: K. Murali Kumar

India’s path to sustainable development is fraught with challenges, as the country grapples with the twin imperatives of meeting burgeoning energy demands and reducing carbon emissions, the Economic Survey 2023-24 revealed on July 22.

Also Read:Economic Survey 2023-24 LIVE updates

Tabled in the Parliament, the Survey underscores the complexities of India’s green transition, emphasizing the need for a diversified energy portfolio to achieve ambitious growth targets while adhering to climate commitments.

“Balancing development needs with a low-carbon pathway is a tightrope, especially when financed predominantly through domestic resources,” the Survey noted, highlighting the financial strain of pursuing cleaner energy alternatives.

Click here to download Economic Survey 2023-24

The document stressed the critical role of non-fossil fuel sources in meeting India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Net Zero goals. However, it also pointed out the challenges associated with renewable energy, including intermittency issues, waste management concerns for nuclear and solar technologies, and the potential impact of biofuel production on food security.

Acknowledging the importance of energy security, the survey advocated for a multi-pronged approach. It suggested diversification of energy sources, including renewables, nuclear, and biofuels; continued reliance on thermal power, particularly coal, to provide baseload support for renewable deployment; promotion of clean coal technologies like gasification and carbon capture, and enhanced international cooperation in R&D for emerging green technologies.

The Survey cautioned against over-reliance on imports, noting that while India’s dependence on petroleum imports is well-known, the shift to renewable energy could lead to new vulnerabilities in the supply chains for solar panels and critical minerals.

On a positive note, the report highlighted India’s significant progress in its mission-mode approach to addressing climate change. As of May 31, 2024, the share of non-fossil sources in installed electricity generation capacity has reached 45.4%, putting India on track to meet its updated NDC target of 50% by 2030.

The Survey called for a “more balanced approach” to climate change, suggesting policymakers focus on “nearer-term policy goals of improving human welfare” rather than being “excessively preoccupied” with long-term global climate management.

While acknowledging India’s achievements, the survey emphasized the need for financial support from developed countries.

With financing needs estimated at $2.5 trillion (at 2014-15 prices) for meeting NDC targets till 2030, access to finance and technology at reasonable costs is crucial to ease the resource constraints.

The agriculture insurance sector is likely to register growth from 2024 onwards. File
| Photo Credit: K.V.S. Giri

The agriculture insurance sector is likely to register growth from 2024 onwards, with an average real premium growth of 2.5% over the medium term, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24.

Also Read:Economic Survey 2023-24 LIVE updates

The survey, tabled in Parliament on July 22, noted that agriculture insurance, accounting for about 12% of the non-life insurance market, witnessed flat growth in FY23 due to a sharp decline in premium rates in the Kharif cropping season.

“However, this decline was more than offset by increased insured land area and farmer enrolments during the season,” it added.

Click here to download Economic Survey 2023-24

“Agriculture premiums will likely rise from 2024 onwards, with an average real premium growth of 2.5% cent over the medium term, supported by improvements in insurance infrastructure such as mobile applications and remote sensing for crop loss monitoring,” the survey said.

To address current concerns around crop insurance, the government has launched various technological initiatives. These include the YES-Tech Manual, WINDS portal, and enrolment app AIDE/Sahayak to assess crop damage via satellite-based advanced technologies.

The survey also highlighted door-to-door enrolment initiatives aimed at making crop insurance more accessible to farmers.

These measures are expected to enhance the efficiency of crop damage assessment and improve the overall accessibility of agricultural insurance in the country.

Currently, the government is implementing Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana and the Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme.

The concept of green steel promotes the production of steel using green energy sources and minimizing the usage of fossil fuels. File (representational image)

Green steel will play an important role in reshaping the future of the industry as the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, the Economic Survey for 2023-24 said.

The concept of green steel promotes the production of steel using green energy sources and minimizing the usage of fossil fuels.

Also Read:Economic Survey 2023-24 LIVE updates

“As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, green steel is poised to play a pivotal role in reshaping the future of the steel industry,” said the Survey tabled in Parliament on July 22.

“India’s steel sector accounts for 12% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions with an emission intensity of 2.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel compared to the global average of 1.9 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel,” it said.

The Survey also said, “India remained a net importer of steel during the first, second and third quarters of FY24 because of price differentials between international and domestic prices of finished steel.”

“Low prices in the international markets led to reduced profit margins for exports and made imports more affordable, affecting the trade balance in the steel sector,” it said.

Click here to download Economic Survey 2023-24

“The import dependence on coking coal, an essential raw material for steel production also went up from 56.1 MT in FY23 to 58.1 MT in FY24,” the Survey said.

The Survey also highlighted that many technologies required for global net zero are commercially unavailable, such as hydrogen-fuelled steel/cement, steel and aluminium production with (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) CCUS, etc.

“There is a need to enhance international cooperation in R&D, especially in the domains of distributed RE, offshore wind, geothermal, tidal energy, biofuels, compressed biogas, green hydrogen, energy storage, electrolysers, and nuclear power [including small modular reactors SMR],” it said.

An auction window is created under the NRS for making coal available for new coal gasification plants
| Photo Credit: G. N. Rao

The initiatives of the government for cleaner fuel such as coal gasification mission and exploring coal to hydrogen need to be promoted to reduce emission and increase environmental sustainability, the Economic Survey on July 22 said.

While phasing in renewables to the extent possible is crucial, in the short to medium term, the focus should also be on actively adopting clean coal technologies.

“With the arrival of ultra super-critical technologies for coal-fired power plants, it would be possible to bring down emissions and achieve higher efficiency,” the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in the Parliament said.

Also Read:Economic Survey 2023-24 LIVE updates

“In exploring the landscape for ensuring energy security, it has become evident that risks are not merely obstacles but also harbingers of opportunities. While uncertainties loom, they present avenues for innovation, adaptation, and growth for India. While phasing in renewables to the extent possible is imperative, in the short to medium term, the focus should also be on actively adopting clean coal technologies,” it said.

The government has launched the National Coal Gasification Mission to achieve coal gasification and liquefaction of 100 million tonne of coal by 2030. In line with the mission document, Coal India Ltd has signed pacts with BHEL, GAIL and IOCL to take up coal gasification projects in the country.

Click here to download Economic Survey 2023-24

To promote coal gasification, the coal ministry has formulated a policy wherein, a provision has been made for a 50% rebate in revenue share for all future commercial mines auctions for the coal used in gasification purposes provided the quantity of dry fuel used for gasification is at least 10% of total coal production.

Further, a separate auction window under the Non-Regulated Sector (NRS) has been created for making coal available for new coal gasification plants.