The rupee depreciated 23 paise to close at 88.71 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (November 20, 2025), on broad strength of the American currency and fading odds of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Forex traders said the dollar has staged a rally, moving above the 100 level, after the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes indicated that most officials were opposed to a rate cut in December, following the October cut.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.63, then lost ground, touching an intra-day low of 88.74. It also hit an intra-day high of 88.62 against the U.S. dollar.

The local currency finally settled for the day at 88.71 (provisional) against the greenback, down 23 paise from its previous close.

On Wednesday (November 19, 2025), the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 88.48 against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.03% to 100.19.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.71% higher at $63.96 per barrel in futures trade.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on rising dollar and declining odds of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.

Experts said dollar demand from importers may pressurise the rupee further. However, a rise in global risk appetite and optimism over India-U.S. trade deals may support the rupee at lower levels.

“We may see the RBI intervening as the rupee inches towards record low levels. Traders may also take cues from the non-farm payrolls report. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 88.40 to 89,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, on the domestic equity market front, the Sensex jumped 446.21 points to settle at 85,632.68, while the Nifty climbed 139.50 points to 26,192.15.

Foreign Institutional Investors bought equities worth ₹1,580.72 crore on a net basis on Wednesday (November 19, 2025), according to exchange data.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday (November 18, 2025) said “you will hear good news” on the proposed trade pact between India and the U.S. once the deal is fair, equitable and balanced.

The remarks came days after President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. is “pretty close” to reaching a “fair trade deal” with India, and added that he will lower tariffs imposed on Indian goods at “some point”.

The rupee depreciated 21 paise to 88.40 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (October 28, 2025), weighed down by month-end dollar demand from importers and a surge in global crude oil prices.

Forex traders said investors are keeping a watch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday (October 29, 2025) for further cues. Markets are assigning a 97.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut, with another one expected in December, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.34, and slipped to 88.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 21 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (October 27, 2025), the rupee plunged 36 paise to close at 88.19 against the U.S. dollar.

“For now, the market seems to be balancing between short-term pressure and medium-term optimism. The rupee is expected to find strong resistance near 88.40, while support lies around 87.60–87.70. A break below that zone could open the door for a move toward 87.20,” CR Forex Advisors MD – Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.12% to 98.66.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.02% to $65.63 per barrel in futures trading.

On the domestic equity markets front, Sensex climbed 125.93 points to 84,904.77 in early trade, while Nifty was up 39.8 points to 26,005.85.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹55.58 crore on Monday (October 27, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s crude oil imports from the United States climbed to their highest level since 2022 in October, a move seen as part of New Delhi’s effort to diversify supplies away from Russia and ease trade tensions with the Trump administration.

India’s crude imports from the U.S. reached 540,000 barrels per day as of October 27 – the highest since 2022, according to data from Kpler.

October is likely to close with near 575,000 bpd, and November looks to book around 400,000-450,000 bpd, per U.S. export data – a sharp jump from the year-to-date average of around 300,000 bpd.

The rupee recovered 88 paise from its all-time closing low to 87.93 against U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (October 15, 2025), on easing dollar index after the U.S. Fed indicated more rate cuts in the current year.

Forex traders said all decline in crude oil prices and reports of RBI intervention supported the domestic currency.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 88.74 against the U.S. dollar, then gained momentum and touched 87.93, registering a gain of 88 paise from its previous close.

It was later trading at 88.33 against the American currency.

On Tuesday (October 14, 2025), the rupee depreciated 13 paise to close at an all-time low of 88.81 against the greenback.

FED Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Tuesday (October 14, 2025) and indicated more rate cuts in the current year as the unemployment rises. He also flagged concerns on the stubborn inflation and warned about future risks arising out of tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.20% lower at 98.85.

“The dollar index fell slightly to 99.03 levels down about 0.24% from the previous session as market anticipated concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions and the persistent U.S. Shutdown, both of which have influenced the investors’ sentiment and supported the dollar in the short term even though the global economic uncertainty remains elevated.

“With no economic data from U.S. as the shutdown continues for a third week typically affecting the dollar moves,” Mr. Bhansali added.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.43% lower at $62.12 per barrel in futures trade, as the U.S. shutdown continues into the third week with no signs of reconciliation from any side.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 354.57 points to 82,384.55 in early trade, while the Nifty was up 109.55 points to 25,255.05.

Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth ₹1,508.53 crore on Tuesday (October 14, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee witnessed range-bound trade on Wednesday (October 8, 2025) and settled for the day lower by three paise at 88.80 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar, tracking a negative trend in domestic equities amid a rise in risk-off sentiments.

Forex traders said the U.S. dollar is holding its ground, yet beneath the dollar’s steady facade lies a growing tension.

The rupee is likely to remain within a narrow range, supported by domestic triggers such as IPO-related inflows, and potential progress in US–India trade talks could gradually tilt sentiment in the rupee’s favour.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.76 against the U.S. dollar, touched an intraday low of 88.81 and finally settled for the day at 88.80 (provisional), registering a loss of 3 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday (October 7, 2025), the rupee fell three paise to close at 88.77 against the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.88, higher by 0.31%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 1.25% higher at $66.27 per barrel in futures trade.

Foreign institutional investors purchased equities worth ₹1,440.66 crore on a net basis on Tuesday (October 7, 2025), according to exchange data.

On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex dropped 153.09 points to settle at 81,773.66, while the Nifty declined 62.15 points to 25,046.15.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday (October 8, 2025) that India and the U.S. are in continuous dialogue on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, and all possibilities exist to meet the November deadline for concluding the talks.

On the possibility of the next round of trade negotiations in a physical mode, he said that every possibility exists, but with the U.S. government currently in shutdown mode, it remains to be seen how, where, and when the next round of talks can take place.

The rupee appreciated 14 paise to 87.95 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (September 9, 2025), tracking a positive trend in domestic equities even as concerns over U.S. tariffs on India weighed on the domestic unit.

Forex traders said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure on worries over U.S. tariffs on India and global uncertainty. Moreover, recent record lows for the domestic unit are prompting a possible RBI intervention to cap the losses in rupee, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 87.98 against the U.S. dollar, then touched 87.95, registering a gain of 14 paise from its previous close.

On Friday (September 5, 2025), the rupee touched the lowest-ever intraday level of 88.38 but pared all losses before ending 3 paise higher at ₹88.09 against the U.S. dollar.

The unit had recorded its all-time low closing level of 88.15 against the dollar on September 2.

The forex market was closed on Monday (September 8, 2025), as the Maharashtra government had declared a public holiday on account of Eid-e-Milad on September 8, instead of September 5.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 97.40, lower by 0.05%, after the U.S. NFPR disappointed while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% paving the way for the FED rate cut and with some market participants also predicting a 50 bps rate cut on September 17th, when the FOMC meets.

“Looking ahead, the spotlight will firmly be on U.S. inflation data (CPI) for August, due Thursday (September 11, 2025). A softer reading would strengthen the case for larger rate cuts, keeping the dollar under pressure. On the other hand, any upside surprise in inflation could complicate the Fed’s path, injecting fresh volatility into the dollar’s trajectory,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.53% higher at $66.37 per barrel in futures trade.

“While softer US data and potential Fed policy shifts could provide some support to the rupee, India’s trade and tariff headwinds may cap any recovery, keeping upside risks intact,” Mr. Pabari added.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex rallied 366.87 points to 81,154.17 in early trade, while Nifty climbed 101.35 points to 24,874.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,170.35 crore on Monday (September 8, 2025), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, in a fresh outburst, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro on Monday (September 8, 2025) said India “must come around” at some point on trade negotiations with the U.S. or else it “won’t end well” for Delhi.

Mr. Navarro, in an interview with the ‘Real America’s Voice’ show, said the Indian government takes offence to him and described India as the ‘Maharajah’ of tariffs.

The rupee appreciated 20 paise to close at 87.43 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (August 13, 2025), as a weak greenback and a positive momentum in domestic equity markets enthused investors.

Forex traders said weak crude oil prices and cooling domestic inflation supported the rupee, but uncertainties over trade tariffs and foreign fund outflows capped the sharp upside for the domestic unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 87.63, and oscillated between an intraday low of 87.72 and a high of 87.28 against the American currency.

The rupee finally settled at 87.43, higher by 20 paise over its previous close. On Tuesday (August 12, 2025), the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 87.63 against the U.S. dollar.

“The rupee experienced its biggest one-day appreciation since July 3, driven by a decline in the US dollar. The dollar weakened amid expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, following a decline in US inflation,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, said.

“Further bolstering the rupee’s performance were several domestic and regional factors, including gains in Indian equities and other Asian currencies, a fall in crude oil prices, and a fall in the domestic Consumer Price Index (CPI).”

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices fell 0.54% to $65.76 per barrel in futures trade.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.44% to 97.66.

“The rupee rose sharply on cooling inflation and strength in the domestic markets. India’s CPI inflation cooled off to 1.55% in July 2025 vs the forecast of 1.76% and 2.1% in June. The U.S. Dollar too fell as CPI data was in line with estimates, raising odds of a rate cut by the Fed in September,” said Anuj Chaudhary, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currencies, Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Retail inflation slowed to an 8-year low of 1.55% in July, falling below the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone for the first time since January 2019, helped by subdued prices of food items, according to government data released on Tuesday (August 12, 2025).

The government has tasked the Reserve Bank to ensure that the consumer price index-based retail inflation remains at 4% with a margin of 2% on either side.

Mr. Chaudhary further noted that sliding crude oil prices also supported the rupee.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias on risk sentiments in the global market and a weakening U.S. dollar. Softening inflation and declining crude oil prices may further support the domestic currency.

“However, the ongoing trade tariff war between India and the U.S. and FII outflows may cap sharp upside. Investors may remain cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting on Friday (August 15, 2025),” Mr. Chaudhary said.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share sensitive index Sensex climbed 304.32 points to settle at 80,539.91, while Nifty rose 131.95 points to close at 24,619.35.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹3,398.80 crore on Tuesday (August 12, 2025), according to exchange data.

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range to settle just 3 paise higher at 87.72 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (August 12, 2025) amid a negative trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading in a tight range as a late decline in domestic markets and foreign fund outflows capped sharp gains for the domestic unit.

Moreover, there is an overall negative bias amid uncertainties over the trade tariff issue between India and the U.S.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 87.70 and moved in a range of 87.59-87.72 during the day before settling at 87.72 (provisional), just 3 paise higher than its previous close.

On Monday (August 11, 2025), the domestic unit closed at 87.75 against the U.S. dollar.

Investors are in a wait-and-watch mode ahead of the U.S. CPI inflation data and are also awaiting cues from the U.S.-Russia talks on August 15, traders said.

“We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on account of the ongoing trade tariff war between India and the U.S. Sustained FII outflows may also pressurise the rupee.”

“However, weakness in the U.S. Dollar and declining crude oil prices may support the rupee at lower levels. Investors now focus on the U.S. and Indian inflation data this week. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 87.40 to 87,” said Anuj Chaudhary, Research Analyst Commodities and Currencies, Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices rose 0.41% to $66.70 per barrel in futures trade.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, advanced 0.04% to 98.55.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex dropped 368.49 points to settle at 80,235.59, while Nifty declined 97.65 points to close at 24,487.40.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,202.65 crore on Monday (August 11, 2025), according to exchange data.