The Lok Sabha witnessed heated exchanges between the treasury benches and the opposition during the Motion of Thanks to the President’s address. The claims, counterclaims, and interjections all point towards a confrontational atmosphere in the 18th Lok Sabha, perhaps shaped by changes in its composition.

From 2019 to 2024, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and friendly parties held a significant lead of around 300 MPs over the INDIA bloc and opposition. However, this session saw the margin narrowing to just 60 MPs. The verbal sparring between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi turned acrimonious and personal, reflecting the recently concluded election campaign dynamics and entrenched positions.

Both Congress And BJP Remain Steadfast

While the Congress aims to sustain momentum, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains resolute not to concede further ground. The shift in strength, allocation of time for parties, and the calibre of speakers on both sides will significantly influence proceedings over the next five years. During the recent Motion of Thanks debate, Rahul Gandhi, as Leader of the Opposition, spoke for nearly an hour and 40 minutes out of the allotted 16 hours – roughly 15% of the total time allotted to the opposition.

Time allocations are based on Lok Sabha strength. During the No Confidence Motion of August 2023, the BJP received around 45% of the time, while the Congress’ share was just 18% With the BJP’s friendly parties (the Biju Janata Dal, the YSR Congress Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party) losing ground in recent elections, their allocation has shifted notably to opposition parties.

Also Read | ‘Hug, Wink In Parliament’: PM Modi’s Dig At Rahul Gandhi

Some prominent speakers from the treasury benches, such as Smriti Irani, were notably absent. Conversely, the presence of parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) has bolstered the opposition, particularly with effective speakers in fluent Hindi. Akhilesh Yadav’s speech, noted for its sarcasm without overt anger, followed Rahul’s assertive tone.

Rahul’s Performance As LoP

During Monday’s session, Rahul Gandhi launched a scathing attack on the Modi government, highlighting issues including inflation, unemployment, NEET, Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops, the Agniveer scheme, and Hindutva, aiming to put the government on the defensive. Top ministers, including the Prime Minister, intervened during Rahul’s speech.

While Rahul addressed critical issues, some noted the absence of specific data and figures in his speech. There is already an ongoing debate over Rahul’s performance in his role as Leader of the Opposition, with supporters arguing his assertiveness marks a significant political presence that cannot be ignored.

Not new to controversy, Rahul made a reference to the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), stating, that those who called themselves Hindu only talked about violence, hatred, and untruth. PM Modi rebutted instantly.

Also Read | “Every MP’s Right”: Rahul Gandhi Questions Expunging Of Parts Of Speech

References in Rahul’s speech to to Hinduism and violence, two prominent industrialists, the Agnipath scheme, and NEET, were expunged. The LoP subsequently wrote to the Speaker questioning the decision and demanding the restoration of his remarks in parliamentary records.

Modi’s Address

On Tuesday, PM Modi delivered the concluding remarks on the Motion of Thanks in the Lok Sabha. His speech, lasting around 2.5 hours, was a scathing attack on the Congress and Rahul. Throughout his address, the opposition shouted slogans, prompting Modi to use headphones to counter the noise. Despite the interruptions, Modi’s speech, though not entirely audible, gave enough hints of the things to come in the next five years.

Modi criticised the opposition’s maturity level, noting that while the treasury benches listened to Rahul’s speech with interjections rather than shouting slogans, the opposition did not afford the same respect to the Prime Minister. Expressing displeasure at the sloganeering, Modi referred to Rahul as “balak buddhi” (childish) and mocked how a party celebrating 99 out of 543 seats was acting as if it had won 99 out of 100. He criticised the Congress party’s promise of transferring Rs. 1 lakh to women’s bank accounts, highlighting the public’s scepticism about similar promises made earlier.

Modi accused Rahul of resorting to drama to garner sympathy, pointing out his bail status in alleged financial misconduct.

Overall, the debate was disappointing for both the opposition and the ruling party. BJP leaders neglected discussion around their agenda for the next five years, while the opposition failed to engage in constructive criticism and effectively address issues like NEET. Both sides instead resorted to mudslinging, seemingly forgetting that the elections were over.

The session’s outcome suggests the potential for more disruptions and chaos in Parliament. Both sides must reconcile with the electoral mandate and strive for a fresh start in the upcoming Budget session.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington too – it’s almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda”.

In India, we often hear that we don’t cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope that suggesting a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) isn’t seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We’re buying more Chinese goods now than ever. In 2023, our bilateral trade hit over $136 billion. Hopefully, even those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi following the border skirmishes are more open to the idea now.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Major Geopolitical Shifts

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they’re open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even wondered recently why India does not try to cast its spell over the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood  

Both countries have the responsibility to lift millions of their combined 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China team up and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics. 

Read | Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much

The US and its allies might be shocked and deeply concerned by a close India-China partnership. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries as it aligns with their strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would cheer if this were to happen.

So, can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that while the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India, and ASEAN) countries. With US power on the decline, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.

A Rollercoaster Ride

The idea of India and China being close friends isn’t new. Historically, they’ve acted like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and make up repeatedly. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back over two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which started in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid a foundation of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation by Western powers, fostering a sense of shared struggle. 

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border issues with China, and they continue to strain their relationship. In the early 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, epitomised by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.

The rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi naturally leaned towards engaging with China. As Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he has visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

Conversely, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams

Many youth in India might not know that not too long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all spheres. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organisation comprising some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies for transforming Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China Is Revamping Its Military, And India Must Not Take It Lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan’s to become the world’s third-largest one by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, even though it feeds nearly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 stood at $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration Possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that hasn’t been matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in reducing poverty significantly. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaborating in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange, and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to stay a reliable partner in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives. 

India knows that neighbours with shared borders may fight at times, but they can still continue to believe in the ‘love thy neighbour’ dictum.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

The inherent strength of India-Bangladesh relationship was once again in evidence as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, decided to visit New Delhi days after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ease with which the top leadership in Delhi and Dhaka now interact and engage each other is a tribute to the manner in which Modi and Hasina have managed to build this important partnership over the last decade, often under very difficult circumstances. If Modi had to contend with the opposition at the state level in West Bengal, where the ruling party decided to veto the Teesta Pact, Hasina had to face the anti-India constituency in Bangladesh. Despite this, both leaders stood firm in their belief that building resilience in this partnership is important for not only bilaterally but also regionally.

“Trusted Friend”

On her first official overseas visit to any country since she returned to power earlier this year in January, Hasina underlined: “India is our major neighbour, trusted friend and regional partner. Bangladesh-India relations are growing at a fast pace.” Modi reciprocated by highlighting the special nature of this visit: “Because she is our first state guest after our government returned to power for the third term.”

Also Read | “Unilateral Discussions…”: Mamata Banerjee To PM On Bangladesh Talks

The visit saw the signing of 10 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), which covered areas as diverse as digital and green partnerships, maritime cooperation, and, notably, the ‘Shared Vision for India-Bangladesh Rail Connectivity’. The joint statement outlined a shared bilateral and regional vision for peace, prosperity and development, driven by connectivity, commerce and collaboration. In that spirit, some important new initiatives were announced, including e-visa for patients from Bangladesh, new train and bus services, joint technical committee for Ganga Water Treaty, visit of an Indian technical team to Bangladesh for a mega project to conserve and manage the Teesta river, export of 40 MW of power from Nepal to Bangladesh through Indian grid, and training of Bangladeshi police officers. Building Bangladesh’s defence capability has also emerged as a priority, with the two nations deciding “to explore defence industrial cooperation for modernisation of the Armed Forces of Bangladesh”.

Identifying Opportunities, Counterbalancing China

Hasina will be visiting China in July. It is a sign of a new maturity in India-Bangladesh relations that the two nations continue to work closely together even as they develop their ties with other nations. New Delhi has not stopped Dhaka from its engagement with China but it has some concerns that Hasina has always ensured are addressed. Since 2020, China has been regularly expressing an interest in the $1 billion project to develop the Teesta river. Last year, Beijing submitted a formal proposal.

Also Read | Tripura Chief Minister Gifts 500 Kg Of Queen Pineapples To Bangladesh PM

For Bangladesh, this has been a long-standing priority. The Manmohan Singh government had an agreement in place in 2011, which could not be taken forward due to the opposition from the Chief Minister of West Bengal. For Hasina, the situation had become unsustainable, with the opposition clamouring for a response amidst moves by the Chinese. Her visit before going to China was a wise move to ensure that New Delhi had a chance to respond, and India has done well to respond to the initiative. The decision to send an Indian technical team to Dhaka for talks on the conservation and management of Teesta river is an indication that New Delhi is not willing to cede its strategic space in the neighbourhood despite domestic challenges. The decision to commence technical negotiations for the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty is also a timely move to respond to the concerns in Dhaka on an issue that is a priority for the Hasina government.

Rock-Solid Ties

For India, the importance of Bangladesh cannot be overstated as New Delhi seeks to emerge as an Indo-Pacific player with the Bay of Bengal as the regional epicentre. For Bangladesh, a partnership with India remains key to realising its full potential as a critical economic and strategic player in the region. As the two nations become more ambitious in defining their strategic outlooks, their bilateral partnership will continue to be a key enabler in shaping their behaviour.

The China factor, while important, should not be overstated. India-Bangladesh ties today stand on their own merit. Hasina and Modi have ensured that by focusing concrete tangible outcomes for the people of both nations, they have redefined the contours of what an ideal partnership between two neighbours should look like. Mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity have made this relationship an exemplar for all others.

[Harsh V Pant is Vice President for Studies and Foreign Policy at ORF.]

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit his parliamentary constituency Varanasi on June 18 for the first time after assuming office for a third consecutive term, during which he will release the 17th installment of PM-KISAN scheme amounting to over Rs 20,000 crore for 9.26 crore beneficiary farmers across the country.

PM Modi will also confer certificates to more than 30,000 members of Self Help Groups (SHGs) who have been trained as ‘Krishi Sakhis’ to work as para-extension workers, supporting fellow farmers with agricultural practices.

Briefing the media, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan highlighted the government’s commitment to the agriculture sector.

“Agriculture has always been a priority for the PM in his last two tenures. He took several key decisions in the interest of farmers. After taking oath as PM, Modi ji first signed a file related to the release of the 17th installment of the PM-KISAN scheme,” Mr Chouhan said.

Launched in 2019, PM-KISAN is a direct benefit transfer (DBT) initiative under which beneficiary farmers receive an annual sum of Rs 6,000 in three equal installments to supplement their financial needs.

Mr Chouhan noted that the Centre has disbursed over Rs 3.04 lakh crore to more than 11 crore farmers across the country since the scheme’s inception.

Uttar Pradesh Governor Anandiben Patel, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and various state ministers are expected to attend the event in Varanasi.

The agriculture minister also shed light on the Krishi Sakhi scheme, a collaborative effort with the rural development ministry.

The scheme aims to train 90,000 women from SHGs as para-extension agriculture workers to assist the farming community and generate additional income.

So far, over 34,000 Krishi Sakhis out of the targeted 70,000 have been certified as para-extension workers across 12 states namely Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Odisha, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, and Meghalaya.

The government is preparing a 100-day plan for the agriculture sector, emphasizing its commitment to the welfare of farmers and the overall development of the agricultural landscape in the country.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

English poet Alfred Tennyson, in one of his famous poems, captures the mighty but mortally wounded King Arthur acknowledging in his dying moments the universal truth that “the old order changeth, yielding place to new, and God fulfils Himself in many ways, lest one good custom should corrupt the world”.

Tennyson believed that change is the law of nature and that the domination of one power, one culture, and one custom is harmful to the world. This idea is highly relevant in today’s political landscape, dominated by the US and Western powers. As the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) met in Italy for their annual summit on Thursday and Friday, it underscored the need for global governance to adapt and embrace emerging nations’ voices, ensuring a dynamic and equitable international order.

The G7 Summit And Global Issues

Unsurprisingly, the summit was dominated by the security of Ukraine. The first day was focused on the US proposal to loan Ukraine 50 billion dollars from the frozen assets of Russia, which was against international law. Much of the second day was spent finding ways to curb China’s exports. There was little time devoted to Israel’s brutal war in Gaza.

America’s leadership style and its position as the number one power in the world are often questioned due to its alleged two-faced foreign policy. With the emergence of right-wing forces across the Western hemisphere, one wonders if the liberal, democratic West-dominated world order would crumble from within.

A Changed World Since 1975

Leaders, academics, and political commentators alike tend to overlook the ground reality that we live in an entirely changed world from the time the world’s most industrialized nations formed the G7 in 1975. The founding members – France, West Germany, the US, the UK, Italy, and Japan – were truly global economic powers. Canada joined them a year later, and Russia was inducted in 1998 but excluded in 2014 after its invasion of Crimea. To complete the dominance of the West, the European Union became the unofficial eighth member of this exclusive club.

At that time, India and China, the two ancient civilisations, lived in relative obscurity and had no global voice. But the world has undergone profound transformations since then. The rise of India and China has shifted the global economic balance. Technological advancements, particularly in digital and communication fields, have revolutionised industries and daily lives in these two countries.

India’s Emergence

India today is ahead of Italy, the host of this year’s summit, in terms of economic, political, and military might. The same is perhaps true of Canada. On their own and without the might of the US, these two countries cannot exercise much power on the global stage. Japan, the odd man out in the old boys’ club, is content being a passive partner. The United Kingdom, once a global force, draws its power mainly from being America’s footman now. The world’s second and fifth largest economies, which are home to a third of humanity, have little or no say in the global world order dominated by the Western powers.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, the US acquired the keys to global governance and assumed the role of a solo global leader. The G7 has faced increasing criticism over the years for being an exclusive club that predominantly represents the interests of wealthy Western nations. Critics often label the G7 as an “old boys’ club” or a grouping of the “White Western world”, suggesting it is out of touch with the global realities of the 21st century.

Critics from the Global South, with India as a leading force, argue that the G7 perpetuates a neocolonial economic system that prioritises its members’ interests over those of less developed nations. This is evident in the G7’s trade policies, often seen as protectionist and detrimental to developing countries. Additionally, the G7’s approach to global issues such as climate change and health is sometimes criticised for imposing Western values and solutions without adequately considering local contexts and needs.

India’s Rightful Place

The concerns of the West are not whether the world order should be more inclusive. Its chief worry is that the existing world order faces existential threats. Consider French President Emmanuel Macron’s address at the annual conference of French ambassadors last year, where he lamented that “attempts to change the existing world order threaten to weaken the West and especially Europe”. He also warned against the weakening of Western influence on key global institutions, such as the UN Security Council, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank.

Reforming the G7 is sorely needed. Indians might ask, why not make India a member and call it the G8? One can understand that the West doesn’t want to include a non-democratic China and an expansionist Russia in this group. But countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa must form part of a new, reformed world order.

India has the right credentials. With a vast population, the fastest-growing major economy, and a strategic geopolitical position, India presents a strong case for inclusion in the G7. Integrating India into the G7 would enhance the group’s legitimacy and representativeness while bolstering global efforts to tackle pressing issues such as climate change, international security, and economic inequality.

As a responsible global actor, India has demonstrated its commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation. India’s active participation in organisations such as the United Nations, BRICS, and the G20 highlights its willingness to engage constructively on global issues. Its inclusion in the G7 would enhance the group’s democratic credentials and strengthen the global coalition of democratic nations working to uphold international norms and human rights.

The US and the West have fought several wars and perpetuated invasions of independent nations. Their track record is replete with wars and violence. India must be given a chance in the new world order because it is capable of fighting for peace. Once again, to quote Alfred Tennyson, “ring out the thousand wars of old, ring in the thousand years of peace”.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

It isn’t often when a foreign policy issue generates as much heat within India’s polity, but this week both the PM and the EAM set off a debate over a 1974 agreement with Sri Lanka that quickly saw pushback from the opposition, and some concern in Colombo. My colleague D. Suresh Kumar has more on the domestic politics over Katchatheevu.

Let’s just tell you how it played out in terms of foreign policy:

1. At a press conference on EAM Jaishankar expanded on a tweet by PM Modi accusing the Congress government of 1974 and the Tamil Nadu State government at the time of “colluding” to “give away” the island.

-The agreement was signed in 1974 and an exchange of letters in 1976 clarified the rights of both sides-

-Katchatheevu, an island less than 2 square kilometres large in the Palk Strait (MAP), was found to lie on the Sri Lankan side of the International Maritime Boundary Line

-Indian fishermen did not have fishing rights around the island, but they could use the land to dry nets, and were allowed to visit the solitary structure, a church for St. Anthony, especially on the day of an annual festival there

-India received rights to the Wadge Bank – rich in petroleum

-The final agreements in 1976 also defined the trijunction point in the waters between India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives

You can find the agreements themselves on the MEA website, the links are given online

The issue has been contentious for decades, but interestingly, when Mr. Jaishankar was Foreign Secretary in 2015, an RTI by the MEA shown by the opposition actually said that the agreement did not involve “acquiring or ceding” of any territory as none had been demarcated historically.

2. Mr. Jaishankar also claimed that Indian fishermen are still being arrested, shot at and even killed by Sri Lankan authorities as a result of the agreement

While it is true that hundreds of Indian fishermen have been detained – about 100 a year for the past few years, they are not detained on Katchatheevu, according to a parliament reply

3. Finally, and perhaps what really was of interest to foreign policy experts was the EAM’s contention that there needs to be a “solution” to the problems created by the 1974 and 1976 agreement, although the matter remains in the Supreme Court at present.

The questions that have been raised are over what the government plans to do next:

1. Will the government seek to reopen the 1974 and 1976 agreements bilaterally with Sri Lanka? Sri Lankan FM Sabry has said this is not on the table, the MEA said it had no comment

2. Would the reopening of these agreements on Katchatheevu lead to other agreements with Sri Lanka that have no doubt been built on the back of this understanding?

3.If the government is calling into question this agreement, then will it also take a re-look at other agreements made in the past with the intent to revise them, especially those that deal with territorial issues in the neighbourhood

-With Pakistan, India has already called into question the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, writing about a year ago to the government in Islamabad that India is seeking to renegotiate the water sharing agreement that was guaranteed by the World Bank

-In the case of Bangladesh, the government accepted the 1974 for the exchange of enclaves that was signed between PM Indira Gandhi and Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. In 2015, the Modi government completed the transfer.

-With Nepal, India currently has a major dispute over territory that ignited in 2019, after the publication of new maps by the government post-reorganisation of Jammu-Kashmir and then the Nepali publication of new maps. Could reopening old agreements have an impact on that dispute?

Most importantly, the question about whether foreign policy issues are now entering and even dominating domestic policy discourse.

While the Pulwama attack and Balakot strikes on Pakistan dominated 2019 elections, the issue was one of terrorism- essentially a domestic issue

However, in the run up to 2024 elections, the government notified rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act, which is expected to feature in the election campaign in Assam, and could bring ties with Bangladesh into question. Already, the opposition there has called for an “India Out” campaign, although it hasn’t gathered much steam

The opposition is also raising on practically a daily basis the India-China boundary dispute and China’s land grab along the LAC, which may become more pronounced as the election goes forward

And ties with the Maldives have suffered in reverse, as ties with India were the target during the Maldives election, and President Muizzu has insisted on Indian troops being removed entirely from the island, setting a deadline of May 10 for the process to be completed

WV Take: Just as New Delhi would prefer not to feature as a polarizing campaign issue when neighbours go to vote, it is best to leave foreign policy negotiations outside the briefing room on domestic elections in India as well. Above all, the government should do nothing that calls into question its credibility in current negotiations, by raising a precedent that would mean future governments could reopen present agreements as well.

WV Reading Recommendations

1. Subcontinental Drift: Domestic Politics and India’s Foreign Policy Rajesh Basrur

2. Haksar on India’s Sri Lanka Policy by V Suryanarayan, Ashik J Bonofer

3. INTERTWINED LIVES : P.N. HAKSAR AND INDIRA GANDHI by Jairam Ramesh

4. 1971:A GLOBAL HISTORY OF THE CREATION OF BANGLADESH by Srinath Raghavan

5. Worldviews of Aspiring Powers: Domestic Foreign Policy Debates in China, India, Iran, Japan and Russia by Henry R. Nau and Deepa Ollapally

6. India and the Global South: Edited by Surendra Kumar, essays by diplomats and experts

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Richard Kujur

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the Kashi Vishwanath temple, in Varanasi, on March 9, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Election Commissioner Arun Goel resigns as Lok Sabha polls approach

Days ahead of the announcement of the schedule for the upcoming Lok Sabha election, Election Commissioner Arun Goel resigned on March 9. Mr. Goel’s tenure was till 2027. With his resignation, the Election Commission has been rendered with just one member — Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar. His resignation comes at a crucial time just days ahead of the expected announcement of schedule for the Lok Sabha election.

PM Modi arrives in Varanasi, takes out roadshow

Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a rousing welcome in his Lok Sabha constituency of Varanasi, with thousands of BJP leaders and supporters flooding the roads of the town. Mr. Modi is slated to participate in a public programme on March 10 in Azamgarh where he will inaugurate and lay foundation stones for multiple development projects worth over ₹42,000 crore in Uttar Pradesh. He will disburse the first instalment under the Mahatari Vandana Yojana in Chhattisgarh via video conferencing from Varanasi.

Krystyna Pyszkova from Czech Republic crowned Miss World 2024

Czech Republic’s Krystyna Pyszkova won the coveted Miss World 2024 title at a grand event in Mumbai. Pyszkova is the second Miss World from Czech Republic after 2006 pageant winner Tatana Kucharova. Mumbai-born Shetty, who was crowned Femina Miss India World in 2022, was unable to make it to the top 4 of the contest. The 71st Miss World pageant, which witnessed participation of contestants from 112 countries of the world, was held at the Jio World Convention Centre in BKC.

Congress compromised border security: PM Modi in Arunachal Pradesh

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 9 slammed the Congress for ignoring the border villages in Arunachal Pradesh for six decades because it did not find the frontier State worth investing in. Ahead of the simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the State, he said the grand old party allegedly indulged in corruption and compromising on the country’s border security for 60 years.

Centre to take all measures to contain food prices: Goyal

The Centre will pull all stops to ensure prices of essential food items from onion to tomatoes to pulses do not spike particularly during the elections, Union Minister Piyush Goyal said as he cited the Modi government’s track record of controlling rates within days of any temporary hike. He highlighted that the government has spent in the last few years about ₹28,000 crore to the price stabilisation fund to support the effort to fight against food inflation.

Fire power demonstration ‘Bharat Shakti’ to showcase indigenous weapon systems, ‘jointness’

A fire power demonstration ‘Exercise Bharat Shakti’ will be held on March 12 at the Pokhran firing range in Rajasthan to demonstrate the “prowess” of indigenously manufactured defence equipment of the three Services, the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force, with particular focus on “jointness” and synergy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to witness the demonstration.

Electoral bonds | SBI plea seeking time till June 30 is condemnable: P Chidambaram

Senior Congress leader and former Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Saturday, March 9, 2024, strongly condemned State Bank of India’s plea seeking time till June 30 to comply with a Supreme Court direction, to make public, the details of electoral bonds purchased since April 2019. These details, Mr. Chidambaram said, could be compiled in a day. The Central government does not want the details to come out before the elections, he alleged.

Kerala CM orders CBI probe into Sidharthan’s death after meeting his family

Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan ordered a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) enquiry into the suspected death by suicide of J.S. Sidharthan, a second-year student of the Kerala Veterinary and Animal Husbandry University at Pookode in Wayanad in mid-February. The student’s death had rocked State politics with Kerala Governor Arif Mohammad Khan, the Congress and also the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alleging that the Student Federation of India (SFI) activists in the college had tortured, shamed and put Sidharthan on public trial for some perceived campus demeanor, and left him to starve in his room for days before fellow hostelers found the student dead in a shared shower room in the college’s boarding house.

BJP discusses seat sharing pact for Maharashtra with Sena, NCP

Union Home Minister Amit Shah held discussions for seat sharing in Maharashtra for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections with coalition partners Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde and NCP. Mr. Shinde and Mr. Pawar — Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra — held talks with Mr. Shah in New Delhi late Friday. Senior BJP leader and Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was also present in the meeting. Mr. Shinde-led Shiv Sena, Mr. Pawar-led NCP and the BJP will contest the Lok Sabha elections in alliance in Maharashtra which sends 48 members to the lower house of Parliament.

Children fall to hunger in Gaza as Israeli siege cuts off supplies

Officials have been warning for months that Israel’s siege and offensive were pushing the Palestinian territory into famine. Hunger is most acute in northern Gaza, which has been isolated by Israeli forces and has suffered long cutoffs of food supplies. At least 20 people have died from malnutrition and dehydration at the north’s Kamal Adwan and Shifa hospitals, according to the Health Ministry. Most of the dead are children. Particularly vulnerable children are also beginning to succumb in the south, where access to aid is more regular.

Former Union Minister Suresh Pachouri, other M.P. Congress leaders quit to join BJP

Former Union Minister Suresh Pachouri, along with other Congress leaders in Madhya Pradesh, switched loyalties to the BJP on Saturday, dealing the Congress a major blow ahead of the Lok Sabha election. Those who quit the Congress and joined the BJP include: Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi, the former Lok Sabha MP from Dhar; former MLAs Sanjay Shukla of Indore-1; Vishal Patel of Indore’s Depalpur; and Arjun Paliya of Narmadapuram’s Pipariya constituency.  The development comes at a time when the Congress is deliberating on its candidate selection for the Lok Sabha election.

We are looking at two separate aspects of the MEA’s role – one on mediation, the other on how to protect emigrants. But first, the latest in the Israel war on Gaza that is entering its sixth month shortly. The condition of about 2 million people in Gaza, crowded into the Southern part of the strip gets more direct by the day- with homes bombed, no access to food or clean water, and no way out. This week, 112 people were killed as crowds awaiting aid thronged trucks and Israeli soldiers manning the convoy opened fire on them.

1. The clock is ticking on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan, which US President Biden had said would be done by Monday, but now many believe will come in by the beginning of Ramzan on March 9 or 10^th. 

2. More than 30,000 have already been killed, 70,000 injured- mostly women and children, in Israeli bombardment and ground operations in retaliation for the October 7 terror attacks in Israel that left about 1140 dead.

3. The ceasefire would pave the way for more hostage releases by Hamas- about 100 or so still remain in the group’s custody

So far mediation efforts have been run by the US and Qatar- on behalf of Israel and Hamas. Egypt and Jordan have also been involved in the effort.

Meanwhile to the other big conflict- Russia’s war in Ukraine, also mediation attempts have stepped up:

At the request of Ukraine, Switzerland’s government is working on a peace conference later this month where they hope to bring both Russia and Ukraine to the table

-Swiss officials are requesting India to attend, with the hope that India could play a part in bringing Russia to the conference, or even work on a ceasefire

-And like with Israel, India has spoken to both Russian and Ukrainian leaders, but not offered any criticism

-India has also send humanitarian aid to Ukraine, yet not sent any infrastructural aid that it requested
So far, New Delhi has said it sees no role in mediation, although it has conveyed messages to Moscow- for the Grain deal initiative and on nuclear safety concerns in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia.

India’s history in Mediation is limited:

-In the 1950s Korean crisis, India actively mediated to control the conflict, led the UN commission on Korea, held elections and worked on the repatriation of prisoners between the two Koreas

-Around the same time, India also took a role in the Vietnam war, and tried to negotiate a ceasefire

However, since then, India has had little interest in mediation for a number of reasons:

1. India’s founding role in the Non Aligned Movement has prompted it to stay away from taking positions on many conflicts

2. Limited leverage- India is not a permanent member of the UNSC, nor is its share of global economy and trade, less than 3% enough to take a decisive position

3. India has consistently opposed mediation in conflicts like Jammu Kashmir- mediating would open it to questions about that policy

4. In other conflicts, like Sri Lanka, India opposed the Norwegian role in favour of the LTTE

5. India’s zero tolerance policy on terrorism also makes mediating or talking to armed groups more difficult.

6. India’s diaspora is in every part of the world- and hence the government’s first priority is negotiating to bring Indians out of harm’s way, not to resolve the conflict itself

A word on the MEA’s policy for emigrants in conflict zones:

1. India discourages the travel of Indians to conflict areas, and the MEA repeated that in a statement this week.

This was in response to a number of articles in The Hindu, authored by my colleague Vijaita Singh

2. The MEA controls and vets the emigration of workers to 18 countries including some conflict zones- Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.

3. As the number of Indian expatriates has increased- Indians are increasingly stuck in conflicts – this week the MEA admitted that about 20 Indians who had travelled to work in Russia had unwittingly been taken to the front for fighting, and India is now negotiating their discharge from the Russian Military

4. In addition, at the request of Israeli PM Netanyahu, the government green-lighted the recruitment of Indian construction workers to replace Palestinians who have been banned from working in Israel after the attacks. The worry now that they too could be taken into conflict areas , including occupied territories or Gaza.

5. Clearly, there is a need for a new policy that updates global conflict zones, and makes it mandatory for those travelling there to have vetted contracts, full information of their deployment and insurance paid by employers. More in The Hindu editorial

WV Take: As global conflicts spread, it is harder for India to remain uninvolved in their resolution- but credibility that comes from being truly neutral in a conflict, can often be the first casualty to any mediation efforts. At the same time, New Delhi has to step up its controls of Indians going into conflict zones, lest they too be seen as partisan in the problem, and are targeted.

WV Reading Recommendations:

On Mediation:

1. The Mediator A Biography of Martti Ahtisaari: by Merikallio and Ruokanen

2. DIPLOMACY by Henry Kissinger (1995)

3. To End a War: The Conflict in Yugoslavia–America’s Inside Story–Negotiating with Milosevic 999 by Richard Holbrooke, as also Our Man by George Packer

4. A Journey: My Political Life by Tony Blair- on the Irish peace process

5. Ulfa: The Mirage of Dawn by Rajeev Bhattacharya

File photo:- Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, walks past Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as they take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at Raj Ghat, Mahatma Gandhi’s cremation site, during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, on September 10, 2023.
| Photo Credit: Sean Kilpatrick

The story so far: The current strain in diplomatic relations between Canada and India has raised concerns about the impact spiralling onto commercial and economic spheres of cooperation. Negotiations towards the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA), which was to serve as an early transitional step towards the larger Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) now stand “paused.” This was widely expected to be sealed in a trade mission that was expected to arrive in India this October — now cancelled. Further concerns relate to the longer-term impact on the larger commercial and economic sphere should relations further deteriorate.

How significant is the trade relationship between the two countries?  

As per the Ministry of Commerce’s TradeStat database, in FY 2022-23, Canada was India’s 35th largest trading partner overall.

Further, as put forth in an earlier joint statement following the sixth Ministerial Dialogue on Trade & Investment (MDTI) in Ottawa in May, Canada-India bilateral trade in goods reached C$12 billion in 2022, growing 57% on a year-over-year basis; of this, the bilateral services trade contributed C8.9 billion to the overall figure.

According to Mohit Singla, Chairman at the Trade Promotion Council of India (TPCI) the trade between the countries is “pretty balanced.” He elaborates that Canada is ranked 14th in imports globally (with a share of 2.3%), but is 32nd in India’s export markets, with a share of 0.9%, currently exhibiting “low potential.” Having said that, he adds that the past two years have seen a sudden upsurge in exports from India at a CAGR of 32%. Other than mineral fuels, categories that have shown strong CAGR in this period include iron and steel, electrical machinery, rubber, nuclear reactors, apparel, pearls, and furniture and plastics, Mr. Singla says.

“This shows a strong surge in confidence by Canadian companies when it comes to sourcing from India across a wide range of categories. Clearly, the momentum has been building as compared to the pre-2020 period, when the overall export CAGR (2013-20) from India to Canada was just around 4%,” said Mr Singla.

From the Canadian perspective, India is a “priority market.” It was the North American country’s 10th largest trading partner. Global Canada (the international diplomacy and affairs department) has also said that “India will be a key partner as Canada strengthens its economic links to the Indo-Pacific under a new, comprehensive strategy for the region.”

How will this impact trade relations? 

India imported merchandise worth approximately U.S.$4.05 billion in FY 2022-23 from Canada and exported about U.S.$4.11 billion worth of goods — indicating a largely balanced trade. India’s primary export items include coal, coke and briquettes, fertilisers, iron and steel, and lentils. On the other hand, India’s major items of export are pharmaceutical products, iron and steel products, organic chemicals and marine products, along with apparel and textiles of varied forms and variants.

The CEPA, which now stands “paused,” was to further take care of “trade in goods, trade in services, rules of origin, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade and other areas of economic cooperation”.

Mr Singla notes that, from available data, “Equivalent ad valorem tariff for India is high on dairy products, cereals, meat, fish, cocoa, apparel, textiles etc., which would undoubtedly be areas of interest for exporters,” adding that “to that extent, the FTA negotiations would delay possible easing of trade barriers in these sectors.”

On the other hand, as Mr Singla observes, “most of India’s top exports face minimal tariff barriers, with the exception of cereals and apparels, so a delay may not have a substantiative impact on India’s exports to Canada.”  

What about the investment ecosystem? 

As per the National Investment Promotion and Facilitation Agency’s Invest India, Canada is the 18^th largest foreign investor in India..

Several Canadian companies have established their presence in India; this is besides the country’s more important pension funds such as the Canadian Pension Fund (or CPP). As reported by news agency Reuters, CPP increased its investment in the Indian markets to about $15 billion in areas such as real estate, renewables and the financial sector at the end of the previous financial year.

Other big pension funds with sizeable exposure to India include Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) — which has investments of about C$8 billion and the Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan (OTPP) with $3 billion — both until the end of last year. Observers in Canada believe that in the immediate term, their positions might not be at risk. They argue that the tensions could however cause operational inconveniences, as travel may be an issue.

What about education in Canada?  

As per official statistics, Canada has about 1.08 lakh students from India at present. This accounts for more than 37% of its overall international student pool. Canada- based publication The Global and Mailwrote that the international student tuition (fee) is “several times higher than for Canadian students,” adding that it “has become essential to the finances of many postsecondary schools.” Any strain in the relationship between the two countries would not bode well for them.

In an advisory on September 23, the Ministry of External Affairs in India urged Indian nationals and students in Canada to “exercise utmost caution.”

Jeff Nankivell, President and CEO at the think-tank Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada told BNN Bloomberg that the “single greatest economic relationship between the two countries is the inflow of students from India… and if that is diminished, it would have negative implications not just for educational institutions but also for Canadian communities that are hosts to Indian international students.”