Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit 2026, in New Delhi on September 12, 2026
| Photo Credit: ANI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday (September 11, 2026) highlighted the issue of rising trade barriers and constrained sea trade routes, adding that India was building bridges among these constraints and was using its presidency of BRICS this year to establish new cooperation networks among the BRICS nations.

Also speaking at the BRICS Business Forum in New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about how the leading powers of the late 20^th century are being replaced by new emerging economies and that this competition was now taking “ugly forms” such as military attacks and threats of secondary sanctions.

BRICS Summit 2026, September 11, 2026 | LIVE updates

During his speech, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian highlighted the dangers of the global financial system being dependent on only a few countries and called for increased BRICS trade in local currencies. He also said that the attacks by the U.S. and Israel on his country showed how economic security could not be separated from national and regional security.

‘BRICS outpacing the world’

Mr. Modi took note of the fact that BRICS countries represent 50% of the world’s population, 40% of global GDP, and more than 25% of global trade.

“Not only that, over these years, while global GDP has increased by around two-and-a-half times, the combined GDP of BRICS countries has increased by around four-and-a-half times,” he said. “This means that the economic strength of BRICS has grown at nearly twice the pace of the world economy.”

Mr. Modi also spoke about how while trade barriers are increasing around the world, India is building economic bridges. “Since 2014, we have entered into free trade agreements with around 40 countries,” he said. “Here too, our approach is the same: reduce barriers and increase opportunities for businesses. Therefore, under our presidency [of BRICS in 2026], we have established new cooperation networks in areas such as agriculture, health, skills and smart grids.”

He added that India has taken additional initiatives such as the BRICS Incubator Network, BRICS MSME Portal, and Start-Up Innovation Fund to connect start-ups and MSMEs with markets and finance.

Global shifts and constraints

“Global trade can move forward only when sea lanes are secure, supply routes remain open and seafarers are safe,” Mr. Modi emphasised. “Therefore, India is a strong supporter of freedom of navigation and the safety of seafarers.”

World is undergoing profound shifts: Putin

Mr. Putin spoke about how the world is currently undergoing structural, deep, profound shifts.

“Which is explained by the fact that the so-called old leaders that used to be the vanguard of economic growth in the second half of the 20^th century are being replaced by new engines of growth,” he said.

While acknowledging the fact that these countries still possess well-developed infrastructure, and technological and scientific advantages, Mr. Putin said it was in the nature of humanity and the economy to change.

He added that this change was accompanied by Russia’s “Western competitors doing everything to get back their erstwhile competitive edge”.

“And sometimes this competition is taking some ugly forms,” Mr. Putin noted. “Sometimes, there are measures resorted to of a physical nature, when pipelines are being destroyed, when attempts are undertaken to block international transport corridors, to seize maritime vessels, other illegal restrictions are being applied.”

“And there’s also the threat of so-called secondary sanctions against those who do not want to follow someone else’s interest and rather look after their own,” he added, without mentioning India or the U.S. threat to impose 100% tariffs on India as a penalty for its Russian oil imports.

Pezeshkian seeks BRICS response to ongoing global challenges

Mr. Pezeshkian also noted the “increasing use of economic instruments to exert political pressure” and asked the assembled leaders what the BRICS response would be to the ongoing global challenges.

“We believe that the truest strength of BRICS is not confined merely to the size of its members’ economies,” he said. “Rather, it becomes more apparent when these capacities are transformed into a network of trade, investment, and joint financing that is a transition from potential cooperation to operational.”

Mr. Pezeshkian talked about how the decades of sanctions Iran has faced has now entered a new phase as a result of the “active military act of aggression of the United States and the Israeli regime” against Iran.

“This act of aggression, in addition to his human and material losses, once again revealed an important reality: economic security cannot be separated from national and regional security,” he emphasised.

“Therefore, by creating resilient capacities for the economies of its members and the global south, BRICS must create an environment in which no country can disrupt the legitimate trade of another country through monopolising a financial instrument or technology,” Mr. Pezeshkian said.

He said that one of the most important steps the BRICS countries could take was to expand the use of national currencies in trade.

“Among the members, this step must be accompanied by the establishment of the necessary instruments for managing currency risks and reciprocal settlements, since the current financial system is vulnerable to political shocks due to its concentration on a limited number of currencies,” Mr. Pezeshkian said.

Published – September 11, 2026 07:39 pm IST

File image of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Photo: Iran’s Presidential website/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters
| Photo Credit: Iran’s Presidential website

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, in Tehran, Iran, on April 16, 2026. ISPR via Reuters

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday (February 22, 2026) expressed cautious optimism about talks with Washington, saying the discussions involved exchange of “practical proposals”, while Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy for West Asia, said President Donald Trump had set clear red lines regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

Also Read | Iran says U.S. has not asked for zero nuclear enrichment

“Iran is committed to peace and stability in the region. Recent negotiations involved the exchange of practical proposals and yielded encouraging signals,” Mr. Pezeshkian, a doctor-turned-moderate politician who was elected President in 2024 after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter accident, wrote in a social media post. “However, we continue to closely monitor U.S. actions and have made all necessary preparations for any potential scenario,” he added.

Also Read | Iran upbeat after U.S. talks but Vance says ‘red lines’ not met

Mr. Pezeshkian’s comment came immediately after Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said a third round of talks between the U.S. and Iran would take place on February 26 in Geneva. “Pleased to confirm U.S.-Iran negotiations are now set for Geneva this Thursday (February 26, 2026) with a positive push to go the extra mile towards finalising the deal,” Mr. Albusaidi wrote in a post. Oman mediated the first round of the talks in Muscat on February 6 and the second round in Geneva on February 17. While Iran claimed “guiding principles” of future talks were agreed between the two sides on February 17, the U.S. side was less optimistic and said gaps remained.

Mr. Witkoff, the chief U.S. negotiator with Iran, said in an interview on Sunday (February 22, 2026) the President was “curious” on why Iran had not capitulated under American pressure. “The President asked me that this morning, and he’s — I don’t wanna use the word frustrated… because he understands he’s got plenty of alternatives, but… he’s curious as to why they haven’t, I don’t wanna use the word capitulated, but why they haven’t capitulated,” Mr. Witkoff told Lara Trump, the President’s daughter-in-law, on Fox News.

He added that Mr. Trump is wondering “why, under this pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘we profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do?’”

Also Read | Trump warns he is considering limited strikes as Iranian diplomat says proposed deal is imminent

The U.S. has deployed dozens of fighter jets, warships, two aircraft carriers, missile defence shields and fuel tankers to the region, with the President threatening to use force if Iran failed to make a deal. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that any attack on the Islamic Republic would trigger a regional war.

Mr. Witkoff added that Mr. Trump gave him and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, who is also part of the negotiating team, the administration’s red lines. “Zero, zero enrichment; we have to get the material back,” he said, referring to Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. After the June 2025 attack by Israel and the U.S. on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Mr. Trump had claimed that the U.S. had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme. But Mr. Witkoff indicated on Sunday (February 22, 2026) that Iran still possessed highly enriched uranium.

“They say it’s all about a civilian programme, yet they’ve been enriching far beyond what’s needed for civil nuclear use, up to 60%. They’re probably a week away from having industrial-grade, bomb-making material. That’s extremely dangerous, and I can’t accept that,” Mr. Witkoff said.

Iran’s state media reported on Monday (February 23, 2026) that Mr. Araghchi held talks with his Omani counterpart about the arrangements for holding the next round of talks. Earlier, Mr. Araghchi told CBS that there was still a “good chance” for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue. “One fact is there, that if they (the U.S.) want to find a resolution for Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, the only way is diplomacy,” he said. “So, there is no need for any military buildup, and military buildup cannot help it and cannot pressurise us.”

Also Read | U.S. warship in Gulf can be sunk, warns Iran’s Khamenei

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday (February 23, 2026) any potential agreement must be “balanced” and based on “mutual respect”.

Our duty as the diplomatic apparatus of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to ensure the rights and interests of the Iranian nation. As a rule, we can only accept an understanding or agreement that contains the characteristics of ensuring Iran’s rights and national interests; both on the nuclear issue and on the issue of lifting sanctions,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters in Tehran, according to state media.

Published – February 23, 2026 06:19 pm IST

Iran’s top security official said Saturday (January 31, 2026) that progress had been made towards negotiations with the United States, even as the Islamic republic’s army chief warned Washington against launching military strikes.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the two sides were talking, while keeping the threat of an attack in the foreground.

Washington has deployed warships led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier off Iran’s shores, after Mr. Trump threatened to intervene in the wake of Tehran’s deadly crackdown on anti-government protests.

“Contrary to the hype of the contrived media war, structural arrangements for negotiations are progressing,” said Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

He was speaking a day after the Kremlin said he held talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Saturday (January 31, 2026) a broader conflict would hurt both Iran and the United States.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has never sought, and in no way seeks, war and it is firmly convinced that a war would be in the interest of neither Iran, nor the United States, nor the region,” he said in a call with Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, according to the Iranian presidency.

Later Saturday (January 31, 2026), Mr. Trump confirmed that there was a dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

“(Iran is) talking to us, and we’ll see if we can do something, otherwise we’ll see what happens…We have a big fleet heading out there,” he told Fox News.

“They are negotiating,” he added.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said its premier Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who also serves as Foreign Minister, held talks in Tehran with Mr. Larijani on Saturday (January 31, 2026) to try to “de-escalate tensions in the region”.

Fears of conflict

The arrival of the U.S. flotilla has raised fears of a direct confrontation with Iran, which has warned it would respond with missile strikes on U.S. bases, ships and allies — notably Israel — in the event of an attack.

Mr. Trump has said he believes Iran will make a deal over its nuclear and missile programmes rather than face American military action.

Tehran has said it is ready for nuclear talks if its missiles and defence capabilities are not on the agenda.

Iranian army chief Amir Hatami has warned the U.S. and Israel against any attack, saying his forces were “at full defensive and military readiness”.

“If the enemy makes a mistake, without a doubt it will endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime,” Mr. Hatami said, official news agency IRNA reported.

Iran’s nuclear technology and expertise “cannot be eliminated”, he added.

With tensions heightened, Iranian authorities rushed to deny that several incidents on Saturday (January 31, 2026) were linked to any attack or sabotage.

They included an explosion in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas that local firefighters said was caused by a gas leak.

Naval exercise

On Friday (January 30, 2026), U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would conduct “a two-day live-fire naval exercise” in the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit hub for global energy supplies.

CENTCOM warned the IRGC against “any unsafe and unprofessional behaviour near U.S. forces”, drawing a sharp response from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“The US military is now attempting to dictate how our Powerful Armed Forces should conduct target practice in their own turf,” he wrote on X.

The United States designated the IRGC a terrorist organisation in 2019, a move the European Union followed on Thursday (January 29, 2026), prompting angry reactions from Tehran.

The U.S. carried out strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites in June when it briefly joined Israel’s 12-day war against its regional foe.

Nationwide protests against the rising cost of living erupted on December 28, before turning into a broader anti-government movement that peaked on January 8 and 9 in what authorities called “riots” blamed on the U.S. and Israel.

‘Serve the people’

The official death toll from the authorities stands at 3,117.

However, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it has confirmed 6,563 deaths, including 6,170 protesters and 124 children.

On Saturday (January 31, 2026), Mr. Pezeshkian urged his government to heed public grievances and “serve the people”.

Some Iranians at the Kapikoy border point separating Iran and Turkey, where a little over 100 people crossed on Saturday (January 31, 2026), said they wanted to be free of the clerical leaders in Tehran.

“They were shooting us in the back. We were even targeted through our windows,” said Shabnan, using a pseudonym. “Everyone has lost loved ones, friends, neighbours, acquaintances.”

Published – February 01, 2026 05:41 am IST

“If someone can do something, by all means, go for it. I can’t do anything. Don’t curse me,” Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s President, told a gathering of university students and academics in early December. At another meeting with provincial Ostandars (governors) and local officials, the President said, “solve your problems yourselves. You shouldn’t think that the President can make miracles happen.” Mr. Pezheshkian, a heart surgeon-turned politician who won the 2024 elections on a platform of reform, said his government was “stuck, really badly stuck”, referring to Iran’s structural problems.

The economy, already reeling under Western sanctions, came under added strain after the June 2025 war with Israel and the U.S. Already grappling with hyperinflation and a tanking currency, a drought last year compounded Iran’s economic distress, while periodic water and power cuts deepened public frustration. The government appeared largely helpless, while the security establishment prepared for the next round of confrontation with Israel. “Iran was a tinderbox,” a Tehran-based academic said. “All it wanted was a spark.”

The fuse was lit on December 28, when traders and shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar went on strike over the collapsing currency, the rial. The bazaar carries immense symbolic weight in Iran’s revolutionary folklore. In the late 1970s, it was a key hub of revolutionary activity. The bazaaris (the trading class), conservative in outlook and angered by the Shah’s economic policies, threw their weight behind the anti-Shah movement, which snowballed into a nationwide uprising that brought down the monarchy in 1979.

In December 2025, the bazaaris shut their shops and staged rallies, demanding solutions to mounting economic grievances. The authorities initially showed restraint and promised to address the shopkeepers’ demands, but protesters remained defiant. And then, on January 2, after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran’s rulers against killing protesters. “The U.S. is locked and loaded,” he wrote in a social media post.

Days later, as protests spread across the country, Iran imposed a nationwide Internet shutdown. A brutal crackdown followed. On January 10, security personnel used lethal force to crush the unrest. According to two Iran-watching organisations based in the U.S. and Norway, at least 3,000 people were killed. State media reported that more than 130 security personnel were also killed in the violence. Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of the late deposed monarch, emerged in Western media as the voice of Iran’s opposition.

He urged the protesters to sustain the pressure and unveiled a transition plan from America — which kept reinstating the monarchy as one of the options. Mr. Trump, for his part, called on “Iranian patriots” to keep protesting and “take over institutions”, promising that “help is on the way”. But after the January 10 crackdown, the protests appeared to lose momentum, while government officials claimed that normalcy was returning. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, seemed to have developed cold feet about military action — at least for now. He said he was “notified” that Iran had halted the planned execution of hundreds of protesters, calling it “good news”.

Cycles of protests

The Islamic Republic, founded in 1979 after the ouster of the Shah, has witnessed several waves of protests ever since. In 1999, students launched a mass agitation demanding social and political reforms. The trigger was the shutdown of a reformist newspaper at the University of Tehran. As protests spread across campuses, security forces moved in with force to suppress them. In 2009, after allegations of a massive electoral fraud surfaced following the presidential election in which incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared winner, tens of thousands took to the streets. The unrest, which came to be known as the Green Movement, eventually lost momentum.

There were repeated protests over economic grievances in 2017 and 2019, but none seriously shook the state. In September 2022, after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, died while in police custody, nationwide protests rocked the country once again. But by far the 2025-26 agitation proved the gravest challenge the Islamic Republic has faced. This time, the protesters took to the streets, with some calling for the overthrow of the regime, while the U.S. threatened to bomb Iran. It was a rare and perilous moment of convergence of both internal instability and the threat of external aggression.

“It’s not that Iran doesn’t want to solve its economic problems. Nor does the state want to live in perpetual cycles of unrest. There are issues of corruption and cronyism. But what has really tied the hands of the regime are the sanctions,” said the Iranian academic.

Iran is among the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The U.S. imposed the first batch of sanctions on Iran’s economy immediately after the 1979 revolution — it banned oil imports from Iran and froze some $12 billion in Iranian assets. In 1995, President Bill Clinton barred American companies from making investments in Iran’s hydrocarbon sector. In 2006, the UN Security Council imposed additional sanctions over its nuclear programme. The European Union would follow suit. In 2019, the first Trump administration designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a paramilitary unit, as “a foreign terrorist organisation”. Currently, Iran’s assets held overseas are largely frozen, its ability to trade freely is severely constrained and foreign countries and companies are effectively barred from making investments. Under sustained American pressure, several countries scaled back oil purchases from Iran, including India.

Sanctions on oil sharply reduced Iran’s foreign exchange earnings and slowed down its economic growth. The loss of revenues led to massive deficits, which were financed by monetary expansion, triggering hyperinflation. Tehran had in the past sought to engage the West and ease the economic stranglehold without loosening its ideological grip. In 2015, Iran reached a multilateral nuclear deal, agreeing to scuttle its nuclear programme and open its facilities for international inspection, while retaining its nuclear technology. In return, the U.S., then led by Barack Obama, and other powers pledged to remove economic sanctions. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal was called, was seen by many as a new beginning for Tehran.

But Israel staunchly opposed the deal, and lobbied against it. In May 2018, during his first term, Mr. Trump tore up the agreement by pulling the U.S. out of it despite UN certification that Iran was fully compliant with the terms of the agreement. He reimposed sanctions on Iran, effectively killing the JCPOA. In response, Iran started enriching uranium to levels beyond the limits set by the deal. In September 2025, European nations reimposed snapback sanctions, saying Iran had violated the JCPOA.

Amid fears of conflict and uncertainty, economic pains mounted. In December, the rial’s value fell by 16% — the currency lost roughly 60% of its value since the June war. Food inflation reached an annual rate of 72%, nearly double the official target. The Pezeshkian government tried to implement some reforms by increasing taxes and removing food and fuel subsidies, moves that only inflamed the public anger. The middle class bazaaris took to the streets first. Others soon followed, transforming a localised strike into a nationwide anti-government political agitation with geopolitical ramifications.

External interference

“In June, Iran was subjected to an illegal military attack by the U.S. and Israel. Over the past two weeks, Iran experienced a terrorist attack. We had Mossad agents directing rioters to attack police stations, schools and mosques. This was domestic terrorism,” Foad Izadi, professor of world studies at Tehran University, told The Hindu. “It initially started as a peaceful protest by merchants, who were upset about currency fluctuations, but that was quickly hijacked by Israel and the U.S.. They want [Reza] Pahlavi to be back in Iran,” he said, adding that Mossad itself had acknowledged having agents operating inside the country.

On January 2, on the day Mr. Trump declared the U.S. was “locked and loaded”, Mossad, Israel’s external spy agency, wrote on social media in Farsi, encouraging Iranians to protest against the government. “Go out together into the streets. The time has come,” Mossad wrote. “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.” In October 2025, Haaretz, Israel’s liberal daily, reported that Israel was indirectly funding Persian language online campaigns targeting the Iranian government, and projecting Reza Pahlavi as the next Shah. This online network pushed out deep fake videos and misinformation during the June war, according to the report. On January 3, Mike Pompeo, former U.S. Secretary of State and CIA chief, wrote on social media, “Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also to every Mossad agent walking beside them.” On January 13, Channel 14, a far-right Israeli channel, reported that “foreign actors are arming the protesters in Iran with live firearms”.

Mr. Izadi said the Western media ignored these facts in their coverage of the “riots” in Iran. “Protesters don’t shoot at police. The West wants to portray that peaceful protesters were killed by the police, but in reality, Mossad agents were shooting at ordinary citizens because they want to increase the number of deaths so that they could get Trump to attack Iran,” added Mr. Izadi. “Pahlavi is also asking for a military attack by Trump. This is strange because if you want to be the king of your country you wouldn’t be inviting a foreign government to attack your country.”

A UN staffer based in Tehran told The Hindu that the protests had turned violent in several pockets. “There were incidents of gunmen from among the crowd targeting security personnel.” said the official. But groups based in the U.S. and Norway, which are critical of the Iranian clerical regime, claimed security personnel unleashed brutal violence against protesters. The government is yet to release the official toll. But Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said “hundreds” were killed. “The government was in talks with the protesters and the internet was shut down only after we confronted terrorist operations and realised orders were coming from outside the country,” Mr. Araghchi said in an interview. The UN staffer in Tehran said on January 13 that protests had subsided but “the air is very tense and fearful”. “Many here say this kind of repression has never been seen. But there is no sign of weakness from the government’s side. They are holding up,” said the official.

According to Arash Azizi, an Iranian author who is teaching at Yale University, the Islamic Republic “might have quashed this wave of street protests but, unlike 2022, it has not returned to stability”. “Its core policies and structures remain untenable. It can barely restore the social equilibrium.”

He said the regime has committed a grave crime by killing “thousands” of protesters. “The opposition remains fragmented and in shock of the massacre. It would need to get its act together if it is to reach its ambitions. Barring that, it is likely that forces inside the regime will implement changes to the regime’s core policies and structures as they seek a new deal with the people and also the U.S.,” Mr. Azizi, author of What Iranians Want, told The Hindu.

Curse of geopolitics

Iran has long been in Washington’s crosshairs. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, Iran was among the first countries to condemn al-Qaeda assault on the U.S., and even offered cooperation for America’s war in Afghanistan. Yet in January 2002, then- U.S. President George W. Bush grouped Iran with North Korea and Iraq as part of an “axis of evil”. A year later, the U.S. invaded Iraq.

North Korea, sensing the danger, abandoned nuclear diplomacy and accelerated efforts to build a nuclear bomb — which it tested in October 2006. Iran built a nuclear programme, but stopped short of weaponisation, with the country’s clerical leadership issuing a fatwa (edict) against manufacturing a bomb. Instead, Tehran invested heavily in building its so-called axis of resistance (forward defence), involving Hashad al Shabi in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and militant groups in Palestine (Yemen’s Houthis would join the network later).

When the U.S. got stuck in Iraq, Iran steadily expanded its regional influence through the axis which it thought would ensure its deterrence. When Arab Spring-inspired protests plunged Syria, an Iranian ally, into a civil war, Tehran, along with Russia and Hezbollah, stepped in. They turned around the civil war by 2018. But the first blow came in January 2020 when the U.S. assassinated Qassem Soleimani, the charismatic head of the Quds Force, the external arm of the Revolutionary Guards, in an air strike in Baghdad. Soleimani was one of the key architects and executioners of the forward defence strategy. Soleimani’s killing disrupted Iran’s complex power projection in a volatile region.

After the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, Israel took the war straight to Iran. On the one side it destroyed Gaza, and on the other, it went after Hezbollah and the Syrian government. Hezbollah was severely weakened after a month-long Israeli military operation in November 2024. In December, the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad collapsed when a Turkiye-backed jihadist militia, headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda commander, marched towards Damascus. With Syria fallen, Hezbollah rolled back and Hamas pushed to the ruins of Gaza, Iran suddenly lay vulnerable to external threats. And in June 2025, Israel began bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. joined in.

Israel has never hidden its desire for regime change in Iran. During the June war, Prime Minister Netanyahu had said regime change could be one of the outcomes of the attack. On Day 1, Israel carried out a large-scale decapitation strike killing several military chiefs. Iranian officials later claimed even President Pezeshkian was targeted. The Iranian state recovered quickly and hit back with ballistic missiles, eventually forcing Israel to agree to a ceasefire. But only the direct confrontation came to a halt. The rivalry continued.

Israel, and several U.S. politicians, including Republican Lindsey Graham, openly support Reza Pahlavi as a potential successor to the Islamic Republic. From Israel’s perspective, Iran is the only revisionist power in the region. No Arab country challenges Israel’s military dominance. If the Islamic Republic falls and a pro-American, pro-Israel dynast is installed in Tehran, Israel, with support from Washington, could redraw the geopolitical landscape of West Asia. As the Islamic Republic’s rivals seek regime change and Tehran seems determined to fight back, the protesters, who demand freedoms and reforms, risk being reduced to pawns in the broader games countries are playing.

Even though many, including German chancellor Friedrich Merz, predicted an imminent collapse of the Iranian government, that did not occur. Even at the peak of the protests, state institutions remained unified, with no visible cracks in the loyalty of the security apparatus. Earlier this week, tens of thousands took to the streets in support of the government.

The protesters, divided among separatists, liberals and monarchists, appeared to lack the political capital to bring down the republic. Questions also remain about what would follow the clerical leadership. Reza Pahlavi, who hasn’t set foot in Iran for over 40 years, lacks the organisational backing or popular appeal to emerge as a credible alternative in a country of over 90 million people. “He has been living off the money his father had stolen from Iran for the last 47 years. Now, he wants to become the king. His father came to power through an American-British coup, and the son wants to come to power through an American-Israeli colour revolution, which failed,” said Mr. Izadi.

But the ground reality appears more complex. “Back-to-back crises are fraying the social contract. Iranians demand structural reforms — if not regime change. The state understands this, but is unable to deliver. The push has to come from within. What you are watching on TV, the coronation of another Pahlavi, holds little significance for ordinary Iranians,” said the Tehran academic. “The revolution will not be televised”, he said, referring to the Gil-Scott Heron poem.

The republic may have weathered the storm for now, but tornadoes lie ahead. The economy remains in deep peril, trapped in cycles of crisis. Iran’s powerful external adversaries have read recurring protests as signs of state weakness. They are likely to intensify efforts to further isolate the country, tighten the screws of sanctions, and sow internal instability. Caught between a sanctions-battered economy, a state unable to reform, and open up and external rivals bent on forcing a violent regime change, the revolutionary road remains torn. As President Pezeshkian warned in December, nobody “can make miracles” to fix the country’s myriad problems.

People walk past stores as the value of the Iranian Rial drops, in Tehran, Iran, on December 30, 2025.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

In this photo released on Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian visits the country’s nuclear achievements during his tour to the Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran, Iran.
| Photo Credit: AP

Masoud Pezeshkian
| Photo Credit: AFP

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Thursday said his country would rebuild its nuclear facilities if attacked, following U.S. media reports that Israel was likely to launch a strike on key Iranian nuclear sites.

“They are threatening us that they will attack our Natanz nuclear facility. Come and attack it. It is the brains of our children that built it,” Mr. Pezeshkian said during a visit to the southern province of Bushehr.

“If you destroy a hundred (nuclear facilities), our children will build a thousand,” he said, without directly referring to the U.S. reports.

The Washington Post reported on Thursday, citing US intelligence, that Israel was “likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025”.

The report referred to “two potential strike options, each involving the United States providing support in the form of aerial refuelling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”.

The Wall Street Journal had earlier carried a similar report.

The reports came as tensions soared after U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy over allegations that Iran is seeking to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently denied the allegations.

At the same time, Mr. Trump called for striking a deal with Iran.

“I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it,” Trump told the New York Post on Friday, adding: “If we made the deal, Israel wouldn’t bomb them.”

Iran and Israel traded direct attacks last year for the first time against the backdrop of soaring regional tensions triggered by the Gaza war.

On October 26, Israel bombed military sites in Iran, killing four servicemen, in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles from Iran.

Some analysts say Israel inflicted severe damage on Iranian air defences and missile capacities and could yet launch more wide-scale action against the Islamic republic, while Iran denied any major damage to its facilities.

On April 13, Iran sent drones and missiles in Israel, in retaliation for a deadly April 1 attack on its Damascus consulate, blamed on Israel.