New Delhi:

Voting for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election may be over – the single-phase poll was held Wednesday – but verbal jousting betwixt the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi rumbles on, with each hotly disputing last night’s exit polls and proclaiming grand wins for their parties.

Five of nine exit polls studied by NDTV indicate the Mahayuti will ease to victory. Three believe neither side will gain a clear advantage. And only one exit pollster gives the MVA an outright win.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong, as they did in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir; in the former the Congress was declared the winner, while the Congress-National Conference alliance was favoured in the latter. As it turned out, the BJP won Haryana and the NC (on its own) swept J&K.

READ | Mahayuti Has Edge In Maharashtra But 3 Of 9 Exit Polls Predict Hung House

However, ahead of the counting of votes on Saturday, the BJP, the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions have come out swinging to claim victory for themselves.

Mahayuti vs MVA Over Exit Polls

For the BJP, outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis pointed triumphantly at the increased voting percentage across Maharashtra and said, “…whenever the percentage increases, it benefits the BJP and the alliance. I am confident we will benefit this time too.”

Maharashtra recorded an estimated 65 per cent turnout; the 2019 figure was 61.74 per cent. The rule of thumb is that large (or larger) voter turnouts spell trouble for the incumbent party.

Mr Fadnavis, though, argued the opposite, insisting, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

On the other side of the fence is Sena MP Sanjay Raut, ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s troubleshooter, who declared exit polls a “fraud” and insisted the MVA will win this election.

Mr Raut pointed to wrong predictions for the Haryana and J&K elections, and the April-June federal election, in which the BJP was widely expected to cross the 400-seat mark but was pegged by back by the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, which includes the Thackeray Sena.

“Look… people do not always speak their mind (about whom they voted for). So, someone says ‘we will take a sample of 4,000 people and say this person is winning, that person is winning’… but the result is different. They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he said.

It isn’t just Mr Fadnavis and Mr Raut who have been talking up their alliance’s chances.

Shinde Sena leader Shaina NC mocked her rivals, saying, “… your boat has sunk.”

The Congress’ Maharashtra unit boss, Nana Patole, is equally insistent the MVA will triumph, declaring voters are “angry with the BJP alliance” and praising the voting percentage increase.

READ | “Defeat Predicted, Will Win”: Nana Patole On Maharashtra Exit Polls

The BJP’s Milind Deora was equally convinced about a victory of the Mahayuti. “I am not into numbers… but we will definitely win”. The reason for his confidence, he told NDTV, was the alliance worked its way back from the Lok Sabha setback and “left no stones unturned” to ensure victory.

The Maharashtra Election Numbers Game

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats. The majority mark is 145.

An average of exit polls gives the BJP’s coalition – which includes the Sena faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP group led by Ajit Pawar – 150 seats. The Congress and its allies – the Sena and NCP factions of Mr Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – have been given 125.

READ | Advantage BJP+ In Maharashtra, Close Fight In Jharkhand: Exit Polls

The only outlier is Electoral Edge, which says the MVA will get 150 seats and the Mahayuti 118.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 Maharashtra election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and (then undivided) Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Mr Shinde that ousted the MVA government. He led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and was named Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

With input from agencies

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Mumbai:

Zeeshan Siddique, the NCP candidate from Bandra East, voted today in the Maharashtra Assembly elections and said that it was the first time he came to a polling booth without his father Baba Siddique. Mr Siddique, a prominent NCP leader and former minister, was gunned down on October 12 near his son’s office by attackers allegedly linked to the Lawrence Bishnoi gang.

“For the first time, I have come alone to vote. My father is no more. This is different but this will have to be done. I know that my father is with me. I started my day by visiting the graveyard in the morning…I think everyone must vote,” Zeeshan Siddique said. 

#WATCH | “For the first time, I have come alone to vote. My father (Baba Siddiqui) is no more. This is different but this will have to be done”: Zeeshan Siddique

Video courtesy: ANI/X#Babasiddique#ZeeshanSiddique#MaharahstraElection2024pic.twitter.com/Ibfs5dWvWR

— NDTV (@ndtv) November 20, 2024

The 32-year-old former Congress leader faces Varun Sardesai, Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, in a high-stakes battle in Bandra East. Zeeshan Siddique joined the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP in October. Mr Siddique will defend the Bandra East seat he won in the 2019 election when he was with the Congress.

Maharashtra’s single-phase assembly elections saw polling begin at 7 am across 288 constituencies, with voting set to conclude at 6 pm. Over 9.7 crore voters are registered to choose among 4,136 candidates contesting this year, marking a 28 per cent rise from 2019’s 3,239 candidates.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) are vying for control of the assembly. The Mahayuti includes the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), while the MVA brings together the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction).

Key figures in the elections include Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, contesting from Baramati against his nephew Yugendra Pawar, marking another compelling electoral contest.

Mumbai:

Security has been ramped up in Mumbai ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly Election, to ensure a smooth and secure voting process. The police are checking vehicles and have made elaborate arrangements to maintain law and order in the city.

Visuals from the Dharavi area, the early morning show security arrangements.

The voting will begin at 7 am and will end at 6 pm.

This election marks a significant moment in Maharashtra’s political landscape, being the first assembly polls after the split in Shiv Sena and NCP. The contest has intensified, with the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) locking horns across constituencies.

Key leaders in the fray include Chief Minister Eknath Shinde from Kopri-Pachpakhadi, where he faces Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Kedar Prakash Dighe. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is contesting from his stronghold, Nagpur South West, against Congress’ Prafulla Gudadhe.

Meanwhile, NCP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is vying to retain Baramati, a traditional stronghold of the Pawar family, against Yungendra Pawar of NCP (SP).

In Mumbai, Aditya Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) is seeking re-election from Worli in a Sena vs Sena contest against Shiv Sena’s Milind Deora. Similarly, Amit Thackeray of MNS faces a triangular battle in Mahim against Shiv Sena’s Sada Sarvankar and Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant.

Polling across 288 assembly seats in the state will be watched closely, with several constituencies throwing up intriguing battles. Voter turnout remains a critical focus, with both the Election Commission and local initiatives urging citizens to exercise their franchise.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

With less than a week to go before the Maharashtra polls, election fever is intensifying. Both major coalitions have unveiled their manifestos. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has introduced the “Batenge to Katenge” slogan and its refined version, “Ek Hai to Safe Hai“, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is relying on its familiar caste census strategy, promising to lift the 50% reservation cap.

Meanwhile, rebel candidates are flexing their muscles, aiming to disrupt both sides in this fierce contest. In a last-minute move to attract farmers facing agricultural distress, the MVA has promised a Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs. 7,000 per quintal for soybean.

After travelling across all six regions of Maharashtra, it remains difficult to determine which side holds the upper hand. The election has evolved into a hyper-local contest. Below are the findings from my journey:

Seat-By-Seat Contest

This election lacks a single overarching theme; instead, it comprises 288 localised battles. It’s a highly individualised contest where the image and accessibility of the incumbent MLA or candidate, local caste dynamics, power structures, and relationships outweigh manifesto promises and government performance. Voters are often undecided, and party symbols may not be significant. For instance, in Shrirampur, the Congress dropped a sitting MLA, who switched to the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction). The Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) has also fielded a candidate who was previously an MLA for two terms on a Congress ticket. All three main candidates share a Congress lineage.

Maratha vs. OBC, Dhangar vs. ST

The Maratha reservation demand has created a divide between Marathas and OBCs, particularly in Marathwada and parts of North Maharashtra. A clear Maratha vs. OBC polarisation can be observed in Manoj Jarange Patil’s stronghold, Marathwada, where the MVA led in 32 and the Mahayuti in 12 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, mixed signals from Manoj Jarangesuch as his withdrawal from the electoral race just 12 hours after announcing his support for specific candidates and accusations from his associates of colluding with Sharad Pawarhave somewhat weakened the movement.

Conversely, OBCs, including the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities, have rallied behind the Mahayuti after Pankaja Munde’s loss in the Lok Sabha elections. The potential inclusion of Dhangars in the ST list post-election has also caused tension. ST communities, wary of diminishing reservation quotas and disillusioned after the Supreme Court’s rejection of 100% reservation in gram panchayat jobs under the PESA Act, appear to lean towards the MVA.

Marathi vs. Gujarati Asmita

The MVA has invoked the Marathi asmita (pride) card, with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of undermining regional parties that represent the Marathi identity. While this Marathi-Gujarati rivalry might resonate in urban areas, it is less impactful in rural regions with fewer migrants.

The ‘Betrayal’ Factor

The betrayal narrative, which benefited the MVA in the general elections, has weakened, but it still holds some influence. Research indicates that while the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) captured 74% of the unified NCP vote, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena secured 56% of the undivided Sena vote. In Western and Northern Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar’s support remains strong and could be decisive, especially in head-to-head battles with the Ajit Pawar faction. His sharp criticisms of Chhagan Bhujbal and Dilip Walse Patil, whom he branded as traitors, have put these leaders on the defensive.

Uddhav Thackeray, however, does not enjoy the same leverage over Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. The Thackerays had delegated control of the Thane-Konkan region to figures like Anant Dighe, Eknath Shinde, Uday Samant, and Narayan Rane, weakening their influence. In the 2024 general election, the Mahayuti led 27-12 in Thane-Konkan assembly segments. In Mumbai, Uddhav also faces a tough challenge from the BJP, which has deep roots there, with the MVA holding a 20-16 lead in assembly segments during the Lok Sabha elections.

The Weakening MVA Hold On Muslim And SC Voters

In the general elections, the MVA had consolidated significant support among Muslims (74%) and Dalits (46%). However, parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are eroding some of this minority support. Additionally, parties like the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Republican Party Of India (RPI), and smaller Ambedkarite parties are eating into the SC vote share. This weakening hold on Muslim and SC voters compared to the general elections is also reflected in the CSDS pre-poll report.

‘Laadki Bahin” Scheme

Women beneficiaries have shown positive responses to the “Laadki Bahin” Yojana, with around 80,000 women per assembly constituency receiving Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 7,500 over the last five months. It remains to be seen whether this will translate into votes, similar to the experience in Madhya Pradesh. Some women praise Shinde for the cash support, stating that politicians have historically looted state funds, and for the first time, someone is prioritising their needs.

However, other women are critical of the scheme due to high inflation, pointing out that the government is giving with one hand and taking away more with the other, thanks to rising prices of essential commodities. A small fraction also questions the timing of the scheme, likening it to voter bribery before the elections. Some men in families express dissatisfaction with the scheme, as the money is directed to women’s accounts instead of theirs.

Farmers’ Issues Significant, But Regional

Maharashtra’s economic paradox is stark: while it contributes 13% to the country’s GDP, it also accounts for 38% of farmer suicides nationwide. Mahayuti faced significant losses in Vidarbha, leading in only 19 seats compared to the MVA’s 43. Farmers struggling with severe agricultural and rural distress voted in large numbers against Mahayuti, protesting low crop prices. Additionally, in Nashik, farmers voiced anger over the ban on onion exports.

Rebels: A Disruptive Force

Rebels from various parties have filed nominations after being denied tickets, contributing to an average of 14.4 candidates per seat, up from 11.2 in 2019. Smaller parties and independents have historically held influence in Maharashtra, with an average of 25% vote share and winning 25-30 seats over the last five elections. While rebels may only win about 10% of seats, they pose a threat to the main parties by spoiling outcomes in many contests. In 2019, 71 seats were won by margins of less than 5%, and in 108 seats, the runner-up’s votes exceeded the winning margin.

Bread-And-Butter Issues Matter

Core issues such as inflation, unemployment, corruption, agricultural/rural distress, development, and infrastructure continue to shape the discourse. Whether these issues will significantly impact voting patterns or if emotional and identity-driven issues will dominate remains to be seen. The urban-rural divide further complicates electoral dynamics and analysis, with 45% of the state being urban.

MVA Loses Edge; Micro-Management Crucial

The advantage MVA had during the general elections has eroded over the past six months. Mahayuti’s course correction, including new schemes and manifesto promises, internal disputes among MVA partners over ticket distribution, and improved preparedness, have contributed to this shift. The contest has become highly competitiveessentially fifty-fiftymaking micro-management and election-day strategy critical for victory. Maharashtra has become a challenging battleground for pollsters and experts.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Nagpur:

Union minister Nitin Gadkari on Sunday said that nobody should take Congress leader Rahul Gandhi seriously, and asserted that the people of Maharashtra will repose trust in the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the November 20 state assembly elections.

“The way Rahul Gandhi speaks, nobody takes him seriously…I think people should not take his remarks seriously,” Gadkari said in an interview with PTI.

On Gandhi’s allegations about PM Modi “suffering from memory loss like US President Joe Biden”, Gadkari said the Congress leader speaks irresponsibly.

Asked about the challenges faced by the Mahayuti alliance after a dismal show during the Lok Sabha elections, Gadkari said, that voters were confused (by the opposition) on a large scale during the Lok Sabha polls.

“A narrative was created that if we win 400-plus seats, we will amend the Constitution drafted by Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar,” the senior BJP leader said.

“There is no question of changing the Constitution. We will neither do it nor allow others to do it,” Gadkari said.

“Now people have realized that the campaign by the opposition during Lok Sabha polls was based on lies and they have decided to support with positivity the Mahayuti in Maharashtra under PM Modi’s leadership,” Gadkari said.

On BJP talking of development politics, but its leader raising slogans like ‘batenge toh katenge’, Gadkari said, “We are contesting the elections on the plank of development. We are all one. Some go to temple, some to mosque, gurdwara and church. But we are all Bharatiya and the country is above everything else for us,” he said.

On Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar voicing his opposition to Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge toh katenge’ remark, indicating a growing rift within the Mahayuti, Gadkari said, “First of all, we are different parties and it is not necessary that we share the same opinion.” “Media also distorts what is said. This creates misconceptions. The call for unity was to unite against terrorism and Naxalism,” he said.

Asked about Rahul Gandhi raising the issue of caste census, Gadkari said, “The real issue is about the welfare of villages, the poor and farmers. The poor have no caste and religion. A Muslim gets petrol at the same rate as others.

Asked if would like to become the BJP president, Gadkari said, “I have been the BJP president earlier and don’t have any desire for that post now.”

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has been served notice by the police in poll-bound Maharashtra’s Solapur over his speeches.

The notice was served to Mr Owaisi while he was on a crowded stage during a rally in Solapur assembly constituency.

Mr Owaisi was campaigning for Farooq Shabdi, the Solapur candidate of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).

The police in the notice instructed Mr Owaisi not to hurt sentiments of any community in his speeches and not to use inflammatory words. The AIMIM chief, who was seated on a chair, was seen reading the notice while at the same time talking on a mobile phone.

The notice did not refer to any particular instance when Mr Owaisi may have violated any law with his speeches.

He has been a fierce critic of the controversial Waqf Bill 2024. The AIMIM also welcomed the Supreme Court’s directions on “bulldozer justice”, which laid down national guidelines on demolition of properties. The Supreme Court had said the executive cannot become a judge, declare an accused guilty and demolish houses.

Mr Owaisi had said the Supreme Court order will “hopefully” prevent state governments from “collectively punishing Muslims and other marginalised groups”.

The AIMIM chief had accused the BJP of glorifying ‘bulldozer action’. “Suppose there are 50 houses in one neighbourhood, but the only house being demolished is of Abdur Rehman, then it is being claimed that not the whole locality is illegal but only his house. This is a prime example of creating hatred,” he had said.

His party has criticised rival parties in Maharashtra for having no ideology left in them, pointing at the sheer complexity of the political landscape following the double split of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and new alliances of parties that did not traditionally share the same ideology.

This was not the first time Mr Owaisi received notice over alleged problematic speeches. Before the general election earlier this year, the Election Commission had sent him notice for alleged communal statements at a meeting in Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency.

Mumbai:

Seat-sharing – the stumbling block of many a political alliance – is in focus before the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election, with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi expected to hold a second round of talks this week, to continue dividing the state’s 288 seats ahead of voting expected in October.

The first round was on Saturday in which a deal for Mumbai’s 36 seats was “99 per cent finalised”, the Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut said, though also stating details will be shared after a ‘full agreement’ is reached. He stressed, however, “We want Mumbai in the hands of Marathi-speaking people.”

Mr Raut’s assertions aside, sources told NDTV there is still friction over the division of Mumbai’s 36 seats; it appears ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena wants 16-20 seats and the Congress at least 15. The third MVA member – Sharad Pawar’s NCP – is believed to want seven to eight seats.

The reported minimum ask from each party puts them two seats over that available.

Mumbai is widely seen as the Sena’s bastion; in the 2019 Assembly election party (then undivided and allied with the BJP) won 14 seats and together the two swept the city, winning 30 of 36 seats.

The Congress picked up four and one, respectively. Zeeshan Siddique, Aslam Sheikh, Amin Patel, and Varsha Gaikwad were winners for the Congress and Nawab Malik claimed the NCP’s sole win.

Normally it shouldn’t be too much of a strain for the Sena to have its way on this issue.

However, the Congress’ showing in the April-June Lok Sabha election (Ms Gaikwad won the Mumbai North Central seat), gives the national party room to push for a greater share of seats.

READ | At Thackeray-Congress Meet, Talks On Seat Sharing, Candidates

Sources told NDTV talks over seat-sharing, for Mumbai and the rest of the state, will include discussions on ‘winnability’, i.e., including establishing the political and demographic intricacies of each seat and which of the three parties’ candidates has the best chance of winning.

Who Will Be MVA’s Chief Minister Face?

Meanwhile, there are also disagreements within the Maha Vikas Aghadi over the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate. Specifically, the Congress and NCP are reluctant to make such a declaration at this stage, while the Sena is pushing for a consensus figure.

One option will almost certainly be Uddhav Thackeray – whose first term was cut short by the Sena-NCP rebellion – but the former Chief Minister has also said he will back any candidate, announced by the Congress and NCP (SP), as the MVA’s candidate for the top job.

READ | Will Back Any MVA Candidate For Chief Minister: Uddhav Thackeray

“I don’t have the feeling I am fighting for myself but for the rights of Maharashtra,” he said in Mumbai. He insisted then it would be prudent for the MVA to decide an alliance leader before the election rather than do so after the result – which has been the Congress’ strategy in recent polls.

Mr Thackeray’s apparent insistence on the MVA identifying a chief ministerial candidate, a figure around whom they can build a campaign, comes amid attacks by the BJP – who will likely rely on the tried-and-tested charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win another election – on this issue.

Mr Thackeray will likely also remember the fallout of the 2019 Assembly election.

The Sena and BJP won comfortably but the two split after failing to agree a post-poll chief ministerial nominee, which even included talk of rotating the post between the two parties. Miffed at being denied the top job, either solo or shared, Mr Thackeray broke from the BJP and joined the Congress and NCP.

BJP On The Attack

The early friction in MVA seat-sharing talks has prompted jibes from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, with the BJP’s Mumbai unit boss, Ashish Shelar predicting its break-up from the strain.

“Most likely, MVA will break over seat sharing. And if, somehow they sustain through seat sharing, it will break afterwards as three parties are there for the Chief Minister’s post,” he said Sunday.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s alliance isn’t free of seat-sharing squabbles either, with the Sena group led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP faction of his deputy, Ajit Pawar, pushing for more.

READ | “Those Born In Family Of Millionaires…”: BJP’s Swipe At Uddhav

The BJP’s poor showing in the Lok Sabha election – in which it won only nine of 28 seats contested – has given the Shinde Sena, in particular, more bargaining power. The Shinde Sena won seven of 15 seats contested, giving it a significantly greater strike-rate. Ajit Pawar’s NCP won one of four.

Dates for the Maharashtra Assembly election have yet to be announced. The 2019 election was held on October 21, with the Sena-BJP combine winning 161 seats to the Congress-led UPA’s 98.

In July the BJP’s alliance bounced back from the poor Lok Sabha showing by registering a big win in MLC polls. The BJP fielded five candidates, including Pankaja Munde, the daughter of late senior leader Gopinath Munde. All five won. Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP named two each and all four won. 

With input from agencies

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