New Delhi:

Voting for the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election may be over – the single-phase poll was held Wednesday – but verbal jousting betwixt the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi rumbles on, with each hotly disputing last night’s exit polls and proclaiming grand wins for their parties.

Five of nine exit polls studied by NDTV indicate the Mahayuti will ease to victory. Three believe neither side will gain a clear advantage. And only one exit pollster gives the MVA an outright win.

But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong, as they did in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir; in the former the Congress was declared the winner, while the Congress-National Conference alliance was favoured in the latter. As it turned out, the BJP won Haryana and the NC (on its own) swept J&K.

READ | Mahayuti Has Edge In Maharashtra But 3 Of 9 Exit Polls Predict Hung House

However, ahead of the counting of votes on Saturday, the BJP, the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions have come out swinging to claim victory for themselves.

Mahayuti vs MVA Over Exit Polls

For the BJP, outgoing Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis pointed triumphantly at the increased voting percentage across Maharashtra and said, “…whenever the percentage increases, it benefits the BJP and the alliance. I am confident we will benefit this time too.”

Maharashtra recorded an estimated 65 per cent turnout; the 2019 figure was 61.74 per cent. The rule of thumb is that large (or larger) voter turnouts spell trouble for the incumbent party.

Mr Fadnavis, though, argued the opposite, insisting, “Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government… it means people are supporting the current government.”

On the other side of the fence is Sena MP Sanjay Raut, ex-Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray’s troubleshooter, who declared exit polls a “fraud” and insisted the MVA will win this election.

Mr Raut pointed to wrong predictions for the Haryana and J&K elections, and the April-June federal election, in which the BJP was widely expected to cross the 400-seat mark but was pegged by back by the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, which includes the Thackeray Sena.

“Look… people do not always speak their mind (about whom they voted for). So, someone says ‘we will take a sample of 4,000 people and say this person is winning, that person is winning’… but the result is different. They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha… but what happened there? You will see… we will win 160-165 seats,” he said.

It isn’t just Mr Fadnavis and Mr Raut who have been talking up their alliance’s chances.

Shinde Sena leader Shaina NC mocked her rivals, saying, “… your boat has sunk.”

The Congress’ Maharashtra unit boss, Nana Patole, is equally insistent the MVA will triumph, declaring voters are “angry with the BJP alliance” and praising the voting percentage increase.

READ | “Defeat Predicted, Will Win”: Nana Patole On Maharashtra Exit Polls

The BJP’s Milind Deora was equally convinced about a victory of the Mahayuti. “I am not into numbers… but we will definitely win”. The reason for his confidence, he told NDTV, was the alliance worked its way back from the Lok Sabha setback and “left no stones unturned” to ensure victory.

The Maharashtra Election Numbers Game

The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats. The majority mark is 145.

An average of exit polls gives the BJP’s coalition – which includes the Sena faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP group led by Ajit Pawar – 150 seats. The Congress and its allies – the Sena and NCP factions of Mr Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – have been given 125.

READ | Advantage BJP+ In Maharashtra, Close Fight In Jharkhand: Exit Polls

The only outlier is Electoral Edge, which says the MVA will get 150 seats and the Mahayuti 118.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 Maharashtra election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and (then undivided) Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).

However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.

Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.

Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Mr Shinde that ousted the MVA government. He led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and was named Chief Minister.

Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.

The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.

With input from agencies

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Mumbai:

Workers of Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party faction blocked NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal from entering the polling booth in Maharashtra’s Yevla constituency today. Mr Bhujbal is contesting the assembly election from this constituency in Nashik which is home to one of the biggest onion wholesale markets in India.

The NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) workers are upset over Mr Bhujbal switching allegiance to the Mahayuti alliance comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the NCP. The workers were also heard shouting how Mr Bhujbal was being allowed to enter the booth more than once.

While switching loyalty to the Mahayuti, Mr Bhujbal had denied claims in a book by journalist Rajdeep Sardesai that he made the move to duck an Enforcement Directorate (ED) investigation against him for alleged money laundering.

“I have worked in Yevla for 20 years and helped the place develop in water management and infrastructure. My caste and religion is only development. Even my party believes the same. The Opposition has failed to criticise me on my work, and so they talk about caste,” Mr Bhujbal told NDTV.

“Caste consolidation doesn’t work because people here have faith in the development I’ve brought. They don’t see my caste,” he added.

In July 2023, NCP leader Ajit Pawar and MLAs loyal to him broke away from the party and joined hands with the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena to become part of the Mahayuti government.

NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) spokesperson Mahesh Tapase said it was appalling to see senior leaders confessing to have joined the ruling party to evade investigation. “Such admissions only reinforce the belief that the BJP operates as a ‘washing machine’ where corrupt leaders enter and emerge spotless,” he said.

The voter turnout in Maharashtra was 45.5 per cent till 3 pm.

In the Mahayuti alliance, the BJP is contesting 149 seats, Shiv Sena 81 seats, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP has fielded candidates in 59 constituencies.

From the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) combine, the Congress has fielded 101 candidates, Shiv Sena (UBT) 95, and NCP (SP) 86 candidates.

Mumbai:

“Complicated” is going to be the middle name of the assembly election in Maharashtra this year. But the state is bracing for an even tougher battle once the dust settles – one for the Chief Minister’s chair. No matter which side wins, ruling alliance Mahayuti or the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, that decision is unlikely to be simple or straightforward – so much so that many are expecting a political reconfiguration post-result, a sequel of what happened in 2019 that set the stage for a drastic political upheaval two years down the line.

What makes the situation complicated is resolute nature of the claimants — on each side, only two appear to be running for the top post.

It is difficult to assess the ambitions of both factions of the NCP. On one side is veteran leader Sharad Pawar, dubbed by many as the Chanakya of Maharashtra, on the other hand, there is his nephew Ajit Pawar, who is being seen as the “kingmaker” in this election.

In the ruling alliance, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is eager to see its leader get the top job again, and many surveys have already declared him a popular leader. But that could prove insufficient should the Mahayuti win, with Devendra Fadnavis and his supporters waiting in the wings.

Back in June 2022, Mr Fadnavis’s supporters had been disgruntled over what they saw as short shrift to their leader despite the key role he played in steering the party back to power.

Mr Fadnavis had made his reluctance to accept the number 2 position clear – he accepted only at the last minute after orders from the party high command.  An extra chair had to be brought so he could join Mr Shinde on the dais for the oath ceremony at the Raj Bhavan.

This time, there are whispers that the BJP’s chief strategist, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, is garnering votes for Mr Fadnavis. At a recent public rally, he said, “Maharashtra has a lot of faith in Modi ji and Fadnavis ji”. There was no mention of Eknath Shinde.

But the real drama appears reserved for the Opposition MVA should it come to power.

In 2019, the BJP had accused Uddhav Thackeray of breaking the alliance with his steadfast demand for the top post. This time, while Mr Thackeray has not been explicit, his allies are not expecting him to give up on his claim.

But unlike in 2019, a new claimant has appeared on the scene – the Congress with its 13 Lok Sabha seats.

While Mr Thackeray has repeatedly demanded that the Chief ministerial face of the alliance be declared well in advance, Congress’ big leader and former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan made it clear that the party which has more MLAs, will get the top job.

There is also talk of Sharad Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party adding the veteran leader’s daughter, Supriya Sule, in the mix if need be.

Maharashtra votes on November 20 in a single phase and the counting of votes will be held on November 23.

Mumbai:

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, after filing his nomination today, took a dig at the opposition when asked about Opposition allegations against the state government ahead of the coming election regarding women-oriented schemes like “Ladki Behena”.

In an exclusive interview to NDTV, Mr Shinde said to avert Opposition allegations about violation of Model Code of Conduct, the state government had even transferred the funds for November in October — before the elections were announced and the Model Code was imposed.

Asked about the Opposition allegation that it was just a ‘pre-election stunt” that would stop as soon as the polls are over, Mr Shinde said they were all ‘liars”.

“They promised prompt disbursement of welfare funds under various schemes. But nothing of the sort has happened in Karnataka or Himachal Pradesh. They stopped the schemes saying they will take funds from the Centre first,” he said.  

“But we have managed to implement everything and make payments… Because their  motives are questionable… Our policy is ‘Nation first’. Theirs is ‘corruption first,” he added. 

Asked about the Opposition’s lack of a Chief Ministerial face, Mr Shinde said, “We don’t have the ‘Make me CM’ culture. In the days of Balasaheb Thackeray, big leaders from Delhi came down to meet him. But now, his heir is walking the roads of Delhi, imploring people to make him the Chief Minister”.

It was a jibe at his jibe at his chief political rival Uddhav Thackeray, whose government he had toppled with his rebellion two years ago, with the backing of the BJP. The rebel faction, who were later granted the party name Shiv Sena and its election symbol, had later joined hands with the BJP to form the government. Mr Shinde was made the Chief Minister – a role he is likely to play again should the Mahayuti alliance wins. 

Mr Shinde’s bid to be recognized as the bearer of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, however, was vetoed by the voters. 

In the Lok Sabha election conducted earlier this year, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi had won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, the ruling alliance won 17. The Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena won 9 seats, ahead of the 7 won by Mr Shinde’s faction.

Polling for the 288-member Maharashtra assembly will be held in a single phase on November 20 and the counting of votes will be held on November 23.

New Delhi:

The Election Commission (EC) will announce the dates for Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand on Tuesday. The EC will announce the poll schedule at a press conference to be held at 3.30 pm.

In Maharashtra’s last Assembly elections in 2019, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising a then unified Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), along with the Congress, had won 154 of 288 seats. This year’s election will probably be the last prestige battle of 2024 with the fractured Shiv Sena and NCP battling the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.

Sources in the BJP told NDTV the party will contest on 158 of the state’s 288 seats. It has offered 70 seats to Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and 50 to Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.

The Congress, battered by the Haryana defeat, will face an upbeat BJP. Among the key figures to be watched out in the poll season in Maharashtra will be Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who has held a series of hunger strikes to demand reservation for the community.

In the Lok Sabha election held this year, MVA won 30 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats. The ruling alliance won 17. One seat went to an Independent candidate.

Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is ready to lock horns with the BJP. In the 2019 elections, JMM had won 30 seats and went on to form the government with the Congress, which has won 16 seats.

Doubts over the future of this government emerged when Mr Soren was arrested in a land scam case in January, leading to the party’s Champai Soren to take over the chief ministerial post.

Soren said the JMM-led alliance will contest all 81 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. He expressed confidence in the party’s electoral preparedness and asserted that the alliance would regain power in the state.

While the term of the Maharashtra assembly ends on November 26, that of Jharkhand ends on January 5 next year.