Mumbai:

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis met outgoing Shiv Sena boss Eknath Shinde in Mumbai Tuesday evening, amid continuing suspense, and an absorbing tug-of-war, over the identity of the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. The meeting is being seen as an outreach by the BJP – to placate an ally who will likely be removed from the top post despite leading a government that was re-elected.

The big decision is expected within 24 hours; the BJP’s newly elected MLAs are meeting tonight – with Union Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and ex-Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani as ‘observers’ from the central leadership – to choose a legislature party leader, who will then become the new Chief Minister.

The smart money is on Mr Fadnavis, a two-time former Chief Minister and the man widely credited with orchestrating the BJP’s comeback, including hobbling the formerly undivided Sena and NCP and picking up the pieces; the breakaway factions added 75 seats to the BJP’s tally in this election.

However, for Mr Fadnavis to return to the top post Eknath Shinde must be persuaded to stand down, and possibly even accept a deputy’s berth, like the BJP leader did in 2022. And it is at that point the BJP’s plans to reclaim power in Maharashtra, without again antagonising a Sena ally, have hit a snag.

The Eknath Shinde Factor

Last week Mr Shinde, after days of public posturing, backed down. He said he spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said he would not be an “obstacle” to a BJP Chief Minister.

READ | “Won’t Obstruct”: In Maharashtra Race, E Shinde Leaves It To BJP

However, there remains a feeling that Mr Shinde and his party are displeased at being told to stand down. Mr Shinde’s absence from Mumbai last week – he retreated to his hometown in Satara district – raised eyebrows, as did the BJP simultaneously announcing a swearing-in date – December 5.

There was more drama this afternoon after Mr Shinde was admitted to a hospital in Thane, where he has been based since returning from Satara. The Sena leader, however, played down talk of an emergency – his team called it a “routine check-up” – and said, “sab badiya hain (everything is fine).”

And while Mr Shinde has made all the right noises, some within his party have not. Sena leader Deepak Kesarkar has reminded the BJP the election was fought under the Mr Shinde’s leadership.

“Now it is up to the BJP’s central leadership to decide how to maintain his stature.”

‘1+2’ Formula To Continue?

Sources have told NDTV over the past week the existing 1+2 formula established after the mid-term switch, i.e., a Chief Minister and two deputies, will continue, except the ‘1’ will be from the BJP.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction will each name a Deputy Chief Minister. To sweeten the deal, the former will get 12 portfolios, including, possibly, the covered Urban Development, Public Works Department, and Water Resources ministries. The latter will get nine, including Finance.

READ | Maharashtra Chief Minister From BJP, Will Have 2 Deputies: Sources

This also means Mr Pawar will likely return as Deputy Chief Minister. But it is unclear if Eknath Shinde will be happy with that ‘demotion’. A possible workaround had been suggested – that he could get a union ministerial berth and his son, Shrikant Shinde, could become the Deputy Chief Minister.

READ | E Shinde’s Son Junks Deputy Buzz In Maharashtra Race

Shinde junior, however, has rubbished, at least publicly, that idea.

महायुतीच्या सरकारचा शपथविधी थोडा लांबल्यामुळे सध्या चर्चा आणि अफवा यांचे पीक फोफावले आहे. काळजीवाहू मुख्यमंत्री मा. श्री एकनाथ शिंदे यांनी प्रकृती अस्वास्थ्यामुळे दोन दिवस गावी जाऊन विश्रांती घेतली. त्यामुळे अफवांना अधिकच बहर आला. मी उपमुख्यमंत्री होणार अशा बातम्या प्रश्नचिन्हे…

— Dr Shrikant Lata Eknath Shinde (@DrSEShinde) December 2, 2024

“… there is no truth in it… the news about my taking up post of Deputy Chief Minister is baseless”.

Maharashtra Assembly Election Recap

The BJP, Mr Shinde’s Sena and Mr Pawar’s NCP, registered a landslide win when votes were counted November 23, even if the Congress and the opposing Maha Vikas Aghadi has cried foul since.

As the single largest party in the Assembly, the BJP is widely seen as having the edge in the chief ministerial race; it won 132 of 288 seats. The Sena is second with 57 and the NCP is third with 41.

The BJP, therefore, is not reliant on both allies to reach the majority mark of 145.

READ | Eknath Shinde Now Where Uddhav Was In ’19, With Big Difference

And the NCP has already professed support, meaning the Shinde Sena doesn’t have the leverage it had in 2022, when Mr Shinde broke from Uddhav Thackeray’s side and allied with the BJP.

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Mumbai:

A decision on the next Maharashtra Chief Minister will be taken during a meeting of the BJP legislative party tomorrow, Shiv Sena chief and caretaker Chief Minister Eknath Shinde said today. “This government is the people’s government. I have clarified my role. The honourable Prime Minister and the honourable Home Minister will take the final decision on (Chief Minister). They (BJP MLAs) are meeting tomorrow. It will be decided. Dont’ worry,” he told the media.

Mr Shinde travelled to his native village in Satara on Friday. The trip had sparked a buzz that the outgoing Chief Minister was not happy with the BJP’s decision to claim the top post after Mahayuti’s sweeping polls victory. Mr Shinde, however, said he was tired after the election campaign and had come to Satara for rest.

“I always come to my village. Why should there be any confusion when I have already made my stand clear last week? I have already said the decision on CM’s post taken by the BJP leadership will be acceptable to me and Shiv Sena and will have my full backing,” he said.

While the Sena chief was in Satara, Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekar Bawankule announced that the swearing-in ceremony of the new Mahayuti government will take place in south Mumbai’s Azad Maidan on Thursday. The BJP is yet to announce its Chief Minister pick. Devendra Fadnavis, the state’s tallest BJP leader and a former Chief Minister, is being seen as a frontrunner.

In this Assembly election, the results of which were declared last week, the Mahayuti scored a thumping win, scoring 230 seats in the 288-member Assembly. The Opposition bloc Maha Vikas Aghadi managed to win just 46 seats, months after its good show in the Lok Sabha polls in the state.

The BJP, which has won 132 seats, has decided to claim the Chief Minister post. After days of political posturing by a section of Sena leaders, Mr Shinde cleared the air and said he would not be an “obstacle” and would accept the BJP leadership’s decision on the next Chief Minister. The Sena chief’s announcement must be seen against the backdrop of the BJP’s strong score in this election. The BJP now needs only one of its allies to reach the majority mark in Assembly and Ajit Pawar’s NCP has backed it in the Chief Minister’s tussle, leaving Mr Shinde with little leverage.

The delay in announcing the Chief Minister pick has, meanwhile, drawn criticism from the Opposition. Aaditya Thackeray, MLA and leader of Sena (UBT), has said the inability to choose a Chief Minister a week after result day was an “insult” to Maharashtra. He has also said that announcing the swearing-in date without even staking claim to form the government is “pure anarchy”. Maharashtra, he has said, “seems like no priority” for BJP-led alliance. Mr Thackeray has also said that if the Opposition parties had ended up on the winning side, President Rule would have been imposed in the state by now.

To not be able to decide on a chief minister, and form government, for more than a week after result day, is not just an insult to Maharashtra (for taking our state so lightly) but also to the assistance provided by their dearest Election Commission.

It seems that rules only…

— Aaditya Thackeray (@AUThackeray) December 1, 2024

The Sena (UBT) leader also doubled down on his party’s allegations of EVM tampering and termed the poll results “mandate of the ECI”.

“To not be able to decide on a chief minister, and form government, for more than a week after result day, is not just an insult to Maharashtra (for taking our state so lightly) but also to the assistance provided by their dearest Election Commission. It seems that rules only apply to the opposition parties, while rules don’t for some special ones. To declare the swearing in date, unilaterally, without even staking claim to form government and show numbers to the Hon’ble Governor, is pure anarchy,” he said in a post on X.