In the Lokniti survey, almost three of every 10 Marathas have indicated their preference for the BJP. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

For the past three decades, Maharashtra has seen continuous fragmentation of various caste groups, but notably the Maratha-Kunbi caste cluster. The idea of ‘vote bank’ is always employed in discussing the close connection between the Maratha community and the Congress. That vote bank was practically dissolved in the 1995 Assembly election. As the Congress in the State went on declining, its base among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) too became invisible. Since then, the BJP and the Shiv Sena together and separately kept trying to win a larger share of both the Maratha and the OBC vote. In 2014, the BJP emerged as a major player in State politics and began attracting both the Marathas and the OBCs.

In the latest election, the process of coming together of the Marathas and OBCs as supporters of the BJP has gone one step further. In the Lokniti survey, almost three of every 10 Marathas (including the Kunbis) and a little less than four of every 10 OBCs have indicated their preference for the BJP. The rest of the Marathas and OBCs were divided among the Congress, and the Shiv Sena and NCP factions. With one-fourth of the Adivasi respondents and one-fifth of the Scheduled Caste (SC) respondents supporting the BJP, the party has managed to craft an invincible Hindu umbrella.

In the process, these social sections have also supported the other two partners of the Mahayuti, making its community-based support quite wide — except among Muslims and somewhat among the SCs and Adivasis (Table 1).

With most social sections turning to the Mahayuti, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was left with only skeletal support across social sections. Even among SCs, the larger share went to ‘Others’ rather than the MVA. In particular, almost half of the Buddhists and former Mahar respondents among SCs vote non-MVA and non-Mahayuti parties.

Trends of caste-community voting in this election are in a sense a continuation of the process that started with the election of 2014 — a consolidation of upper castes, Marathas, and OBCs behind BJP, and a somewhat divided political support of SCs, Adivasis and Muslims, who vote less for the BJP but do not necessarily operate as a vote bank supporting any single party.

Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics; Nitin Birmal is Lokniti’s State Coordinator, Maharashtra and a retired professor of Political Science based in Pune 

Mumbai:

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance secured a resounding victory in the Maharashtra Assembly Elections, winning 235 out of 288 seats.

The BJP alone clinched a historic 132 seats, propelled by the success of its flagship Mukhyamantri-Meri Ladki Behan Yojana, a women-centric scheme that emerged as a game-changer in this election.

Held on November 20, the single-phase election saw a direct battle between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The Mahayuti coalition, comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and smaller allies, managed to decisively retain power, while the MVA, led by Congress and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), struggled to make significant gains.

The Ladki Behan Yojana proved instrumental in winning over women voters. The scheme provides Rs 1,500 monthly financial aid to women, with three instalments already disbursed to over two crore beneficiaries in the state. In a bid to consolidate this support, the Mahayuti pledged to increase the amount to Rs 2,100 per month if re-elected, while Eknath Shinde further promised Rs 3,000 per month.

Women voters played a crucial role in the Mahayuti’s success, with over 3.06 crore women participating in the elections. Their turnout was especially significant in 12 constituencies where they outnumbered male voters. The ruling coalition’s targeted welfare schemes, including the Mahila Sashaktikaran Yojana for education and skill development, resonated strongly with women, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas.

The opposition MVA countered with promises like Rs 3,000 monthly aid for women and free bus travel under the Mahalakshmi Scheme. However, these failed to match the credibility of the Mahayuti’s schemes, with many women voters opting for the proven benefits of the Ladki Behan Yojana.

The scheme was not without controversy. A Public Interest Litigation in the Bombay High Court sought to challenge it, alleging political motivations. However, the court upheld the scheme, recognizing its adherence to due process. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde criticised the opposition for opposing the initiative initially and later incorporating similar promises into their agenda.

Former Indian Cricketer Sachin Tendulkar, actor Akshay Kumar and Rajkummar Rao are among the early voters in the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024. The Bollywood celebrities stepped out of their homes early in the day to exercise their fundamental right to vote.

Sachin Tendulkar along with his wife Anjali and daughter Sara cast their vote at a polling booth in Mumbai. The trio showed their inked fingers to the media.

“I have been an icon of the ECI (Election Commission of India) for quite some time now. The message I am giving is to turn up and vote. It is our responsibility. I hope people will take that effort and come and vote. I urge everyone to come and vote.”

#WATCH | Mumbai: After casting his vote, Former Indian Cricketer Sachin Tendulkar says, “I have been an icon of the ECI (Election Commission of India) for quite some time now. The message I am giving is to vote. It is our responsibility. I urge everyone to come out and vote.”… pic.twitter.com/5FPTjA4SSx

— ANI (@ANI) November 20, 2024

Actor Akshay Kumar showed his inked finger after casting his vote for Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024.

While speaking to the media, Akshay Kumar made a clarion call to vote. Lauding the arrangements made at the polling booth, Mr Kumar said, “The arrangements for senior citizens are great. Cleanliness has been maintained. I want everyone to come out and cast their votes.”

#WATCH | Mumbai: Actor Akshay Kumar shows his inked finger after casting his vote for #MaharashtraAssemblyElections2024

He says “The arrangements here are very good as I can see that arrangements for senior citizens are very good and cleanliness has been maintained. I want… pic.twitter.com/QXpmDuBKJ7

— ANI (@ANI) November 20, 2024

Rajkummar Rao cast his vote at a polling booth in Gyan Kendra Secondary School, Mumbai. He urged citizens to do the “important” task – vote.

“It is our right in a democracy, so it’s important that we step outside and vote. I have performed my duty. It is your turn now. Please vote,” actor Rajkummar Rao said, while speaking to news agency Press Trust of India.

Actor and filmmaker Pooja Bhatt appealed to her fans to make their votes count. She wrote, “Go vote Mumbai. Go vote Bandra. Your vote matters.” 

Film directors Kabir Khan and Zoya Akhtar, actor Ali Fazal, and filmmaker and actor Farhan Akhtar too came out early to cast votes and fulfill their duty.

Voting for the single-phase Maharashtra assembly elections began at 7 am and will conclude at 6 pm. Polling is taking place across 288 assembly constituencies.

A total of 4,136 candidates are contesting the elections, including 2,086 independents.

Mumbai:

Security has been ramped up in Mumbai ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly Election, to ensure a smooth and secure voting process. The police are checking vehicles and have made elaborate arrangements to maintain law and order in the city.

Visuals from the Dharavi area, the early morning show security arrangements.

The voting will begin at 7 am and will end at 6 pm.

This election marks a significant moment in Maharashtra’s political landscape, being the first assembly polls after the split in Shiv Sena and NCP. The contest has intensified, with the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) locking horns across constituencies.

Key leaders in the fray include Chief Minister Eknath Shinde from Kopri-Pachpakhadi, where he faces Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Kedar Prakash Dighe. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is contesting from his stronghold, Nagpur South West, against Congress’ Prafulla Gudadhe.

Meanwhile, NCP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is vying to retain Baramati, a traditional stronghold of the Pawar family, against Yungendra Pawar of NCP (SP).

In Mumbai, Aditya Thackeray of Shiv Sena (UBT) is seeking re-election from Worli in a Sena vs Sena contest against Shiv Sena’s Milind Deora. Similarly, Amit Thackeray of MNS faces a triangular battle in Mahim against Shiv Sena’s Sada Sarvankar and Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant.

Polling across 288 assembly seats in the state will be watched closely, with several constituencies throwing up intriguing battles. Voter turnout remains a critical focus, with both the Election Commission and local initiatives urging citizens to exercise their franchise.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen or AIMIM has joined the battle for Maharashtra, hoping to expand its niche in the western state. With eye on Muslim and Dalit votes, the party is contesting on 16 seats. Though it won only two seats in 2014 and 2019, its effect had extended to cutting into the non-BJP votes from the Congress, triggering Maha Vikas Aghadi’s allegation that it is the “B Team” of the BJP. 

AIMIM won Malegaon Central and Dhule in 2019 after contesting on 44 seats, but spoiled the chances of the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s undivided NCP on a dozen seats.

This time, the party has fielded four Dalit and 12 Muslim candidates in Aurangabad Central, Aurangabad East, Mumbra-Kalwa (Thane), Malegaon Central, Dhule, Solapur, Nanded South, Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, Bhiwandi West, Karanja, Nagpur North, Byculla, Versova (Mumbai), Murtizapur (Akola), Kurla and Miraj (Sangli). 

Most of these seats are around Mumbai. On almost all seats, there are strong candidates of the Congress, NCP (SP) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT). 

The campaign is being spearheaded by party chief Asaduddin Owaisi and his brother Akbaruddin Owaisi, with the slogan “Jai Bhim, Jai MIM”. 

Mr Owaisi’s hurdles have been multiplied by the Ulema Board, which has supported the MVA with 17 conditions. 

The main demands of the board include a ban on Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological mentor of the BJP, and opposition to the Waqf Bill.

Mr Owaisi feels this move of the board may lead to a division in his Muslim votebank. But such a split will hit the MVA worse.

Chimur, Maharashtra:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday mounted a scathing attack against Congress and its Maha Vikas Aghadi partners, saying that they have “a double PhD” in putting brakes on development and in corruption.

Addressing a rally in Chimur for BJP and MahaYuti candidates, he said: “The Congress people have a double PhD in stalling, delaying and diverting the works. In 2.5 years, they stopped every development project from Metro to Vadhvan Port and Samruddhi Mahamarg. So remember that Aghadi means the biggest player in corruption.”

PM Modi also said that the rapid development of Maharashtra is beyond the reach of the Aghadi people.

“Congress and the alliance do not leave any opportunity to push the country back and weaken it. You people have shown today itself what the election results in Maharashtra are going to be. This huge crowd is saying that MahaYuti is going to form the government with a huge majority in Maharashtra. The people of Chimur and the entire Maharashtra have decided – ‘BJP – Mahayuti ahe, tar gati ahe. Maharashtra’s progress ahe’,” the Prime Minister said, breaking into Marathi.

“Along with MahaYuti, the NDA government at the Centre means double engine government in Maharashtra, which means double speed of development. The people of Maharashtra have seen this double pace of development in the last 2.5 years. Today Maharashtra is the state in the country where maximum foreign investment is taking place. New airports and new expressways are being built here. Today, around a dozen Vande Bharat trains are running in Maharashtra, more than 100 stations here are being renovated and many railway routes are being expanded,” he said.

The Prime Minister said that the BJP-led NDA government has put a break on Maoism in Chimur and Gadchiroli and also across the country.

“Congress and its allies have given you only bloody games. It is our government which has curbed Naxalism (Maoism). Today this entire area is able to breathe freely. Now new opportunities are being created in the areas of Chimur and Gadchiroli. To ensure that Naxalism does not become dominant in this area again, you should not allow the Congress and its allies to even enter here,” he added.

The Prime Minister showered praise on the state BJP unit for bringing out a comprehensive manifesto which promises to increase the pace of development of all sections and the state.

“Today I would also like to congratulate Maharashtra BJP, which has released a very wonderful manifesto,” he said.

Further, the Prime Minister lashed out at the Congress and allies for their efforts to reinstate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir while referring to the resolution moved in this regard recently in the Assembly there.

“Our Jammu and Kashmir remained burning in separatism and terrorism for decades. Many brave soldiers of Maharashtra were martyred on the soil of Jammu and Kashmir while protecting the motherland. The law under the cover of which all this happened, that section was Article 370. This article was the contribution of Congress. We abolished Article 370. Kashmir was completely integrated with India and the Indian Constitution. But Congress and its allies are passing resolutions to implement Article 370 again in Kashmir. These people are doing what Pakistan wants,” he claimed.

The Prime Minister warned the people of Congress “conspiracy” to divide tribals among various castes and weaken them. However, he claimed that the Centre as well as the MahaYuti government have taken many decisions for its development and empowerment.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Mumbai:

NCP (SP) working president Supriya Sule has said political rapprochement with Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is not possible till he is aligned with the BJP and said she will not be a chief minister post aspirant if the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is voted to power. In an exclusive interview with the news agency PTI, four-time Lok Sabha member Sule said people voted very assertively in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and there is clarity in the voters’ minds now.

She feels the opposition MVA, comprising the NCP (SP), Congress and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) will also do much better in the November 20 state assembly polls.

Out of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the MVA won 30 seats, and an independent supporting the opposition alliance also emerged victorious.

Last year, Ms Sule’s cousin Ajit Pawar and several other NCP MLAs joined the Eknath Shinde-BJP government in the state, leading to a split in the party founded by her father Sharad Pawar.

In June 2022, Mr Shinde led a rebellion against the Shiv Sena leadership, which led to a split in that party.

Ms Sule said, “It is hard to say whether Pawars can reunite with Ajit Pawar politically. As long as he is working for the BJP it will not be easy. Our ideologies still remain a challenge politically.”

ALSO READ | “I Know Only One Ajit Dada Who Didn’t Like Visiting Delhi”: Supriya Sule

On speculations that she could be the MVA’s chief minister face, she said, ”I am not contesting elections and the NCP (SP) has made it clear that we are not in the race for CM’s post. We have clarity and we will go along with whoever our partners decide .”

Asked if the upcoming assembly polls will settle the fragmented polity in Maharashtra, the parliamentarian said the Lok Sabha election results have settled the confusion.

”There is already clarity in the state. There is no issue as such except that the legal fight continues because of the illegal way parties were broken, the illegal way they were given to people…the fight will continue,” she said.

Ms Sule denied there was any strategy to contest only 10 Lok Sabha seats.

”Our party is about service and not strategy. We don’t strategise…we are focused on serving the nation and doing good policy work ,” she said.

The NCP (SP) is contesting 86 out of 288 assembly seats (as per the seat-sharing arrangement of MVA allies) in the state elections and is confident of doing well, she said.

Ms Sule said there was nothing wrong in the delay in finalising the seat-sharing formula among MVA allies.

“Alliance talks in a vibrant democracy take time, we must be respectful towards allies. We made sure we didn’t bulldoze anyone,” she said.

Ms Sule said she doesn’t see the contest in Baramati assembly seat, Pawars’ family bastion where Ajit Pawar is pitted against his nephew Yugendra Pawar, as anything more than an ideological fight.

ALSO READ | “Not Acceptable To Society”: Ajit Pawar On Why Leaving Family Was A Mistake

”We are aligned with the Congress and they with the BJP. We are fighting the BJP, so we fight their allies,” she said.

Expressing gratitude to voters for giving her the fourth Lok Sabha term this year, Ms Sule said she hoped the assembly polls will be fair in Baramati and claimed people were being threatened by the ruling dispensation.

“People are brave and I will stand by them,” she maintained.

On Ajit Pawar asking Baramati voters to make him happy by electing him, Ms Sule said for her contesting and winning elections is not for self-happiness.

”This is not happiness, this is service for me. My politics is about serving the nation and doing good and serious policy work,” she asserted.

”If I would ask for votes, it would not be for my happiness, it would be for people’s happiness. I want my every stakeholder to be happy. If they are happy, I will be happy,” she said.

On emotions at play in Baramati during the general elections and now in the assembly polls, Ms Sule said leaders are not allowed to show emotions in public.

”If a leader crumbles, how will the family members survive. Being a leader is a lonely job. We have to be empathetic and compassionate in our behaviour but not crumble emotionally,” she said.

On NCP’s division after she was made the party working president, Ms Sule said Ajit Pawar held a powerful position in decision-making, and she was ready to debate with anyone, including him, on how can she be blamed for the split in the party.

‘I believe in transparency,” she said.

Ms Sule said the MVA will get a clear mandate to provide an honest, stable and progressive government to end unemployment, corruption and inflation.

She also said that both (ruling and opposition) alliances decided not to project a CM face. Whether or not it is needed depends on time-to- time, situation-to-situation, she added.

Ms Sule also said the NCP (SP) was not a regional party.

”We were a national party, we were downgraded and our party was broken illegally and the fight continues in the Supreme Court. What was done to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray was completely unfair,” she said. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray will begin his campaign trail for the Maharashtra Assembly polls on November 5 from Konkan and Vidarbha with focus on constituencies of MLAs who were part of the 2022 rebellion led by now Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

Mr. Thackeray will address a rally in Ratnagiri on November 5, a seat represented by State Industries Minister Uday Samant. He will also canvass votes for party MLA Rajan Salvi who is contesting from neighbouring Rajapur constituency.

On November 6, Mr. Thackeray will campaign in Bhiwandi Rural constituency, which is represented by Shantaram More, one of the 40 MLAs who rebelled against him. Bhiwandi Rural is part of Thane district, the home turf of CM Shinde.

On the same day, Mr. Thackeray will take part in the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s rally at Bandra Kurla Complex here, which will be attended by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and NCP (SP) president Sharad Pawar.

On November 7, he will campaign in Daryapur from where Abhijit Adsul, son of Shinde-led Shiv Sena leader Anand Adsul, is contesting.

On the same day, the Shiv Sena (UBT) chief will campaign for Sunil Kharate, the party’s candidate from Badnera.

Badnera is the constituency of MLA Ravi Rana, a BJP ally, who was jailed for threatening to recite Hanuman Chalisa outside Matoshri, the private residence of the Thackerays, when Mr. Thackeray was the Chief Minister.

On November 8, Mr. Thackeray will campaign in Buldhana and Mehkar in Vidarbha, represented by Sanjay Gaikwad and Sanjay Raymulkar respectively. The two were part of the Shinde-led rebellion against Mr. Thackeray in 2022.

In Partur in Parbhani district, Mr. Thackeray will campaign for party candidate Asaram Borade, who is pitted against BJP’s sitting MLA Babanrao Lonikar.

The Shiv Sena split in June 2022 after Mr. Shinde led a rebellion and brought down the MVA government under Mr. Thackeray.

The Election Commission later gave the party name and its ‘bow and arrow’ symbol to the faction led by Mr. Shinde. Mr. Thackeray’s outfit is now called Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray).

The election to the Maharashtra Assembly will be held on November 20, while votes will be counted on November 23.

Mumbai:

Nawab Malik, leader of Nationalist Congress Party’s Ajit Pawar faction and a big face in Maharashtra politics, has announced that he will contest from Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar – where Samajwadi Party’s Abu Azmi is the three-time sitting legislator. The Samajwadi Party is still waiting for a decision on seat sharing from the Maha Vikas Aghadi. It had asked for two seats and the party is far from pleased about the delay. Abu Azmi has given several deadlines to the MVA, but is yet to act on it.

Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, part of the North East Mumbai Lok Sabha constituency, is a Muslim-dominated area. So while Abu Azmi is confident, if Nawab Malik files nomination, it may no longer be an easy election for the SP candidate.

Nawab Malik’s party has been silent about his candidature, although it has announced 49 candidates already. There is still no clarity on how many seats each party of the ruling alliance is contesting.

Sources in the BJP have indicated that the party is not in favour of candidates accused in criminal cases. Many believe his ticket was cut by NCP due to the BJP opposition, which has created sympathy for him among the Muslim voters, who form a substantial chunk of the electorate.

Nawab Malik was arrested in February 2022 by the Enforcement Directorate in an alleged money laundering case involving mafia don Dawood Ibrahim and his associates. He was granted bail in July by the Supreme Court on health grounds.

In this backdrop, Mr Malik’s comments on has candidature has triggered speculation on whether he would be backed by his party or contest as Independent.

“I will be filing my nomination on October 29 from the Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar Assembly constituency,’ Mr Malik had said. “The public has urged me to contest elections from here. The public is very upset with the hooliganism and drug business which is going on in Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar… I don’t care who is opposing me, the public is supporting me and I will contest the elections,” he was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.

Mr Azmi has remarked that Nawab Malik’s candidature is a BJP ploy and their outward reluctance to field him just an eyewash. Many say his presence in the contest will split the Muslim vote, and help the BJP/Sena/NCP candidate win. 

In this year’s Lok Sabha elections, the North East Mumbai seat was won by Sanjay Patil of Sharad Pawar’s faction of the NCP. The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP (Ajit Pawar) alliance or the Mahayuti had fielded Mihir Kotecha.

Nawab Malik’s daughter Sana Malik is a NCP (Ajit Pawar) candidate from the Anushaktinagar seat. She will contest against Fahad Ahmed of Sharad Pawar’s NCP on this seat. Fahad is the husband of film actress Swara Bhaskar.

Polling for Maharashtra assembly elections will be held in one phase on November 20. Counting of votes will be done on November 23.

Mumbai:

The BJP on Monday released its third list of 25 candidates for the Maharashtra assembly polls, giving tickets to two Congress turncoats and the personal assistant of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

The BJP, so far, has announced candidates for 146 seats. Polls to the 288-member Maharashtra assembly will take place on November 20, while results will be declared on November 23.

Jitesh Antapurkar, who won a bypoll in 2021 on a Congress ticket and is considered close to former chief minister Ashok Chavan, has been nominated from Deglur. Chavan had left the Congress recently and joined the BJP, which made him a Rajya Sabha MP.

Archana Patil-Chakurkar, the daughter-in-law of Congress veteran and former Lok Sabha Speaker Shivraj Patil, has been fielded from the Latur City seat. She had joined the BJP from the Congress in March this year.

Sumit Wankhede, who has served as Fadnavis’s personal assistant for several years, will be the BJP’s candidate from the Arvi assembly constituency.

Incidentally, the BJP had given Fadnavis’ former PA Abhimanyu Pawar a ticket from Ausa in 2019. Pawar had won at the time. Later, Shreekant Bharatiya was made an MLC by the party.

Borivali BJP MLA Sunil Rane has been replaced with Sanjay Upadhyay, while MLC Praveen Datke has been fielded from the Nagpur Central seat.

Ashish Deshmukh, son of former Congress state president Ranjeet Deshmukh, has been given a ticket from Savner in Nagpur district.

Sitting MLA Bharti Lavekar has been repeated from Versova’s seat in the western part of the metropolis.

The BJP’s third list features four women, including Lavekar and Archana Patil-Chakurkar.

The other two are Sneha Dube, who has been fielded from the Vasai seat in Palghar district, and Sai Prakash Dahake from Karanja in Washim. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)