Amid the final stretch of Lok Sabha elections, onion farmers in the key producing districts of Nashik are cast their votes under the cloud of economic distress and policy dissatisfaction.
| Photo Credit: B. Jothi Ramalingam

In India, the rise in the price of onions has reportedly been a factor that influenced the outcomes of some elections in the past. This time, it is not the price of onions which has the potential to have an electoral impact but the export policy of the Centre.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the average retail price for 1kg of onions in Mumbai and the quantum of onions (in tonnes) that arrived in the city’s markets, month-wise.

Table appears incomplete? Click to remove AMP mode

In December 2023, the Centre imposed a ban on the export of onions to stop surging local prices. Onion arrivals slumped in November-December 2023, leading to a demand-supply mismatch. This resulted in a surge in onion prices to over Rs. 60 per kg and led to the export ban. Many farmers in the onion-growing districts of Maharashtra, especially Nashik, protested on the streets, blocked a national highway at three spots, and disrupted auctions in wholesale markets.

Editorial | A sob story: On onion exports 

On April 25, 2024, in a surprise move, the Centre partially relaxed the indefinite ban on onion exports and allowed the “immediate” export of 2,000 tonnes of white onions, mostly grown in Gujarat. The State went to the polls 12 days later. This decision was criticised by the Opposition leaders and the onion farmers of Maharashtra.

On April 27, the Centre allowed the export of more than 99,000 tonnes of onions, mainly sourced from Maharashtra to six neighbouring countries. On May 4, the Centre lifted the ban on onion exports. It also imposed a minimum export price of $550 per tonne and an export duty of 40%. The onion-growing districts of Maharashtra voted on May 13 and May 20.

These continuous flip-flops have not gone down well with the onion farmers of Maharashtra, suggest reports. On May 15, more than 50 farmers were detained in different police stations in Nashik, ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the city. They had planned a protest along with the Opposition against the decisions regarding onion exports. Onion farmers and traders, especially in Nashik, have been up in arms for months now and have shown their anger by suspending onion auctions and going on a strike.

Chart 2 | The chart shows the top onion-exporting districts in India and their share in onion exports.

It is understandable why Nashik in particular is worried about the changing export policy, as the district is responsible for about 90% of onions exported from India (Chart 2). Given the circumstances, it will be interesting to see whether this will have an electoral impact in the 12 parliamentary constituencies, including the Dindori and Nashik seats in the Nashik district, which fall in the ‘onion belt’ of Maharashtra. The other seats are Shirdi, Ahmednagar, Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Raver, Shirur, Baramati, Maval, and Pune.

Past election results in these seats show that the voters increasingly supported the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP’s vote share increased from 25% in 2009 to 33% in 2014 to 36% in 2019. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena also have significant vote shares in the region ranging from about 15% to 27%, but their vote shares have stagnated in the last few years. The NCP and the Shiv Sena have both split into two parties each. While the NCP led by Ajit Pawar and the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde support the National Democratic Alliance, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray support the INDIA bloc. In Nashik, the two factions of the Shiv Sena are in a direct fight in 2024. In Dindori, Sharad Pawar’s NCP is fighting against the BJP.

Table 3 | The table shows the party-wise vote share split in the onion belt constituencies in the last three Lok Sabha polls.

^ Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, * Independent, # The NCP and the Shiv Sena have split into two parties each

While the Congress’ vote share is relatively low in these seats, it has increased across elections. The past vote share and seat share in these constituencies are shown in Tables 3 and 4, respectively.

Table 4 | The table shows the seats secured in the onion belt constituencies in the last three Lok Sabha elections.

Also read |Lifting of ban on onion export pushes up prices

Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh):

Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered prayers at Dashashwamedh Ghat on the banks of the Ganges in Varanasi before filling his nomination from the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat today in Uttar Pradesh.

Today also marks the auspicious day of Ganga Saptami and PM Modi participated in prayers and performed the Ganga Aarti at the Ghat

PM Modi the sitting MP and BJP’s candiatate will file his nomination papers from the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat for the 2024 general elections, from where he has secured wins with large margins for the past two consecutive terms.

PM Modi will then offer prayers at Kal Bhairav Temple before filing his nomination.

PM Modi is seeking a third term and hoping for a record margin.

Varanasi goes in for polling on June 1 in the seventh and last phase of the general elections.
Security has been strengthened outside the office of the District Magistrate in Varanasi ahead of PM Modi’s nomination.

Ahead of the nomination, the Bharatiya Janata Party said in a post in hindi on X that the temple town of Kashi is once again ready to send its servant (PM Modi) to the Parliament.

“I have neither come here nor has anyone sent me here, Maa Ganga has called me… This relationship between Kashi, Kashi residents and the Chief Servant is one of development, trust and affection. Kashi is once again ready to send its beloved chief servant to the parliament by winning him with record votes,” BJP posted.

PM Modi also posted on X about his association with the city. “My relationship with my Kashi is amazing, inseparable and incomparable… all I can say is that it cannot be expressed in words!”

Voting in Varanasi will be held on June 1 in the seventh and last phase of the Lok Sabha polls.

On Monday evening, PM Modi held an extravagant roadshow in Varanasi on a five-kilometre-stretch on Monday evening.

PM Modi was accompanied by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and BJP state president Chaudhary Bhupendra Singh. The whole stretch reverberated with ‘Har Har Mahadev’ and ‘Jai Shree Ram’ chants as a huge crowd of supporters and residents gathered on either side of the road to cheer the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister Narendra started his roadshow by garlanding the statue of Mahamana Madan Mohan Malviya at the Singh Dwar of Kashi Hindu University at around 5 pm. After more than two and a half hours, the roadshow concluded at the Kashi Vishwanath Dham. After the roadshow, the Prime Minister offered prayers at the Kashi Vishwanath Dham along with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and other BJP leaders.

Varanasi is the stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party and PM Modi. He won the seat twice- the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.The Congress has pitted Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai against PM Modi in Varanasi. This is the third time Ajay Rai will face PM Modi in the Lok Sabha contest.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, PM Modi won the seat with over 6,74,664 votes and commanded a vote share of 63.6 per cent. In 2014, PM Modi contested two Lok Sabha seats- from Gujarat’s Vadodara and Uttar Pradesh’s Varanasi.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Srinagar:

A voter turnout of more than 36 per cent took place in the redrawn Srinagar Lok Sabha seat without any untoward incident on Monday, the highest since 1996 when the constituency in Jammu and Kashmir recorded nearly 41 per cent polling.

The Srinagar constituency recorded 36.58 per cent voting till 8 pm, the Election Commission of India said.

This was the first general election in the valley after the abrogation of Article 370 and the enactment of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, the EC said in a statement.

Voting took place in the districts of Srinagar, Ganderbal, and Pulwama, and partly in Budgam and Shopian districts at around 2,135 polling stations across the Srinagar parliamentary constituency with live webcasting at all the polling stations.

Polling started at 7 am with long queues of enthusiastic voters waiting to cast their votes, the statement said.

Voters of Srinagar, Budgam, Ganderbal, Pulwama, and Shopian showed up in record numbers to cast their votes in a show of faith and enthusiasm in the election process, it added.

According to the EC, the highest polling in this constituency in the last 34 years has been in 1996 when nearly 41 per cent voters used their franchise.

In 2019, 14.43 per cent votes polled whereas the figure in previous parliamentary elections stood at 25.86 per cent (2014), 25.55 (2009), 18.57 (2004), 11.93 (1999) and 30.06 per cent (1998), the statement said.

National Conference candidate Aga Ruhullah, PDP’s Wahid Para, JK Apni Party’s Ashraf Mir and DPAP’s Amit Bhat are among 24 candidates fighting from the Srinagar seat. In the 2019 general elections, only 12 candidates were in the fray from the seat.

The Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency was redrawn after the delimitation and parts of Budgam in central Kashmir were taken away from it, while Pulwama district and parts of Shopian district were added.

Polling and security personnel worked tirelessly to ensure that an atmosphere of calm, peace and festivities welcomed voters at the polling stations, the EC added.

More than 8,000 polling staff were on duty to cater to the over 17.47 lakh-strong electorate.

Command-and-Control centres have been working 24×7 in Srinagar as well as Jammu since March 16, the date of announcement of the general elections, to ensure free and fair elections, the EC said.

In order to ensure inclusive voting, polling stations managed by women, specially abled persons and youths were set up. There were 21 green and eco-friendly polling stations, it added.

The Commission has enabled Kashmiri migrant voters residing at various relief camps in Delhi, Jammu, and Udhampur to also have the option of voting in person at designated special polling stations or using postal ballot.

As many as 21 Special Polling Stations were established at Jammu, one at Udhampur and four at Delhi.

Planned, consistent and targeted interventions to promote voter awareness as part of SVEEP activities has contributed to the noteworthy rise in voter turnout, the EC said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

File picture of Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, who accused the White House of complicating the 2024 Lok Sabha polls
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The U.S. has not yet provided any reliable evidence of the involvement of Indian citizens in the murder plot of a Khalistani terrorist in that country, Russia has said, as it accused Washington of meddling in India’s domestic affairs and the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

In November last year, U.S. federal prosecutors charged an Indian national with working with an Indian government employee in the foiled plot to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.

Mr. Pannun, wanted in India on terror charges, holds dual citizenship of the U.S. and Canada. He has been designated as a terrorist by the Union Home Ministry under the anti-terror law Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, when asked to respond to a report by the Washington Post claiming that India is trying to adopt the policies as Russia and Saudi Arabia, said: “According to the information we have, Washington has not yet provided any reliable evidence of the involvement of Indian citizens in the preparation of the murder of a certain G.S. Pannun. Speculation on this topic in the absence of evidence is unacceptable.”

Washington lacks understanding of India’s national mentality and history and continues to make “unfounded accusations” about religious freedoms in India, she said.

“Regular unfounded accusations by the United States against New Delhi… we see that they groundlessly accuse not only India but also many other states… of violating religious freedoms are a reflection of the United States’ misunderstanding of the national mentality, the historical context of the development of the Indian state and disrespect for India as a state,” she said.

Describing the interference as a “colonial period mentality,” the Russian spokesperson accused the White House of complicating the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

“The reason is that they try to unbalance the internal political situation in India in order to complicate the general parliamentary elections. That is part of meddling into India’s internal affairs,” RT news quoted her as saying.

“The Washington Post, it seems to me, should use the term “repressive regime” and everything you quoted in relation to Washington. It is difficult to imagine a more repressive regime than Washington, both in domestic and international affairs,” she said.

The Washington Post, citing unnamed sources, named a Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) officer in connection with the alleged plot to kill Mr. Pannun on American soil last year.

India has strongly rejected the claims, saying that the report made “unwarranted and unsubstantiated” imputations on a serious matter and that an investigation into the case was underway.

“The report in question makes unwarranted and unsubstantiated imputations on a serious matter,” External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in New Delhi.

Mr. Jaiswal said a high-level inquiry committee set up by New Delhi to look into inputs provided by the U.S. on the alleged plot was still probing the case.

“There is an ongoing investigation of the high-level committee set up by the Government of India to look into the security concerns shared by the US government on networks of organised criminals, terrorists and others,” he said.

“Speculative and irresponsible comments on it are not helpful,” Mr. Jaiswal added.

There are about 60 national elections in 2024 involving two billion people, including the biggest of them — the national elections underway in India — and the election to the U.S. presidency. Across the world, elections are a volatile mixture of emotions, aspirations, competing ideologies, and sometimes even violence. It might then surprise many that, despite the cacophony, there is science behind the election’s processes.

About 2,500 years ago, the earliest form of elections in ancient Athens was a system that ultimately depended on the candidate’s luck. Among all the suitable candidates, one was randomly chosen. Since the winning criterion was based on random choice, campaigning or influence couldn’t help the candidate.

Tenth-century Chola inscriptions at Uthiramerur in Tamil Nadu reveal the practice of choosing village representatives through a ‘Kudavolai’ system. The final choice was made by randomly picking one among the candidates the people had voted for.

What is the ‘first past the post’ system?

Today, social choice theorists and mathematicians who study elections call this the approval voting system followed by a random choice. As a means of electing candidates, this process fails to reflect the will of the people. If this is a flawed process, what would be the right way to elect candidates? Surprisingly, mathematics tells us that there is no simple answer to this question.

The first-past-the-post (FPTP) system followed in India, the U.S., the U.K., and several other countries has many drawbacks. Critics have pointed out the disproportionate difference between the popular vote share and the seat share in many Parliaments. For example, in the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, the Aam Aadmi Party received 54% of the popular vote but won 96% of the seats, whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party won 32% and 4%, respectively.

Second, winners in the FPTP system often secure far less than 50% of the vote share. No government in India, irrespective of its strength in the Lok Sabha (i.e. number of seats), has ever surpassed 50% vote share. Since 1918, only once, in 1931 in the U.K., did a government command more than 50%. So by the vote-share metric, rather than parliamentary seats, India and the U.K. were always ruled by “minority” governments. Expectedly, social choice theorists disfavour the FPTP system, though it continues to find wide use for its simplicity.

What are the Condorcet and Borda systems?

Are there better alternatives? Mathematical analysis to design better electoral systems dates back to the 13th century in the works of Ramon Llull, a missionary and theologian. His book ‘De Arte Eleccionis’, in the Catalan language, gives a detailed algorithm for a two-stage election process for church officials. It ensures that the winner, when pitted against each of the other contenders, receives more than 50% votes and is the most preferred candidate. This work was lost for centuries until it was discovered in the late 1980s.

Today, Llull’s method is called the Condorcet system after the 18th-century French mathematician Nicolas de Condorcet, who rediscovered it in the 1780s. While better than FPTP, the Condorcet system can be difficult to understand and isn’t used in any national election, not least because its mechanism allows participants to prevent the election of a particular candidate. Some smaller organisations use it to elect their leaders and board members, however.

The Borda electoral process, proposed by French mathematician Jean-Charles de Borda in 1784 — but first described by the 15th-century German astronomer Nicolas of Cusa — is a rank-based voting system (RVS) similar to the points table in sporting tournaments like the Indian Premier League. It allows voters to rank each candidate on the ballot paper, and through a process of vote redistribution, the winner is guaranteed to have at least 50% of the vote. Redistribution of votes can take several forms; the most common is to add the second and even third preference votes until one of the candidates crosses 50% vote share.

Are there problems with RVS?

The President of India is elected with the RVS system. In 1969, none of the 15 presidential candidates secured 50% of the first-preference votes. After adding second preference votes, V.V. Giri (who had 48% first preference votes) reached 50.8% and was declared the winner, defeating Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy. Like Condorcet, the original Borda method is complex and challenging to implement in large elections such as those in India.

In 1951, the American economist and Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow proved that RVS can conflict with certain fairness criteria required of elections. This doesn’t imply such systems are unfair, even if occasionally the most popular candidate may fail to get elected.

Consider an RVS election with three candidates, A, B, and C, with nine voters ranking their preferences. The results can read thus: four voters prefer B over C, and prefer A over both B and C. This information can be represented as A > B > C (4). Similarly, other voters may yield different combinations: B > C > A (3) and C > A > B (2). The distribution indicates A received the maximum number of first preference votes and C the least. Suppose B withdraws from the election. In a fair election, we should expect the result to remain unaffected — but this isn’t the case with RVS. Here, with the same vote distribution, the result will now read  A > C (4 votes) and C > A (5 votes). So C has the most first preference votes now and wins. Arrow’s theorem asserts that such outcomes are unavoidable in an RVS election.

How can maths, physics help keep elections fair?

Ironically, while the cold rigour of mathematics sheds light on the inherently boisterous election processes, more grounded physics approaches draw on this lack of order to seek universal patterns irrespective of electoral systems. This is not unusual in physics.

For example, inside a balloon, billions of molecules, moving randomly and bumping against one another, conspire together to produce a constant pressure that keeps the balloon puffed up. This is the central lesson of statistical physics: order can emerge at the large scale even if dominated by disorder at smaller scales.

Two decades of election data analysis has revealed emergent patterns in the form of the distributions of quantities that matter to an electoral process. Despite the superficial chaos surrounding the elections, these patterns are robust and independent of finer details, such as where elections were held, the voting paradigm or the cultural context. Axiomatically, the absence of such order would suggest that elections are/were not fair and could be used to diagnose and flag electoral malpractices.

In short, while mathematical analysis helps sharpen an algorithm for the election process, a physics perspective serves to diagnose if the algorithm is fairly implemented in practice. The science of elections has a long way to go, but for millions of people across the world, the elections of 2024 provide hope that the future is in their hands.

M.S. Santhanam is a professor of physics, and Aanjaneya Kumar and Ritam Pal are doctoral students, all at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune.

New Delhi:

As the campaign heats up for the third phase of Lok Sabha elections, the weather department has predicted heatwave to severe heatwave conditions for several states over the next five days.

High temperatures have raised concern, as poll campaigns draw thousands of people under the baking sun.

Indian voters will be battling sweltering conditions to take part in the third phase of elections as heatwave conditions are likely to prevail in many states where voting will take place on May 7, especially West Bengal, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Goa and East Uttar Pradesh.

The Election Commission has urged parties and authorities to do more to keep voters, candidates, and polling station staff safe. 

People should maintain extreme caution during such situations, the authorities have said. There are chances of people suffering sunburn and heatstroke, the weather office said.

Temperature in several areas of Maharashtra crossed 40 degrees Celsius yesterday, with Solaur the hottest at 43.7 degrees Celsius.

Scorching heatwave gripping Odisha and West Bengal has disrupted daily life, with temperatures soaring to alarming levels

The IMD also issued heat wave alert in Kerala’s Kollam, Thrissur, and Palakkad. The heat wave conditions would prevail in many places in these districts today, the IMD said.

Experts fear that the rising temperatures may impact the turnout in the third phase of polls.

According to the guidelines issued by the National Disaster Management Authority, people should wear light-coloured, loose-fitting clothes and cover the head with a cap or cloth. They should keep themselves covered and not expose too much of the body to the heat.

“Always carry plenty of fluids and water, and keep an eye on the daily forecast as well as advisories of the India Meteorological Department,” said Dr Naresh Kumar, Senior Scientist at the India Meteorological Department.

The threshold for a heat wave is met when the maximum temperature of a weather station reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius in the plains, 37 degrees in the coastal areas, and 30 degrees in the hilly regions, and the departure from normal is at least 4.5 notches.

New Delhi:

“To vote, or not to vote” was a question for Ms Kalavathi, a 78-year-old woman in Bengaluru who was hospitalised after her blood oxygen level dropped earlier this week. She was rushed to a hospital in Jayanagar on Tuesday with symptoms of cough and breathlessness, days before her constituency was scheduled to vote in the second phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Ms Kalavathi, however, surprised everyone on Friday when she was taken to the poll booth on a stretcher to exercise her franchise.

According to doctors, her oxygen saturation level was at 80%, which is usually 95% or higher, when she was admitted to the hospital. Upon assessment, she was diagnosed with pneumonia.

READ | “He Was In Hospital, Got Him Discharged”: Sudha Murty As Narayana Murthy Votes

Aravinda GM, the doctor at the Manipal Hospital in Jayanagar, began her treatment and gave her antibiotics along with oxygen therapy, inhalation, antiviral medications, and supportive care.

As her health condition gradually improved and she was shifted to the recovery room, Mr Kalavathi expressed her wish to cast her vote.

She was delighted when the medical team came forward to support her decision to participate in the democratic process.

Assisted by the nursing team, she was then taken to the Jayanagar constituency to cast her vote on a stretcher.

Voting is currently underway across 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in Karnataka. The polling began at 7 am and an estimated 22.34 per cent voter turnout was recorded till 11 am in the southern state.

READ | “I Have Voted Every Time”: 102-Year-Old Casts Vote At Polling Booth

Out of 14 segments that are going to polls, the highest turnout of 30.98 per cent was recorded in Dakshina Kannada, followed by Udupi-Chikmagalur 29.03 per cent, and the least 19.21 per cent in Bangalore Central.

The turnout was 19.81 per cent in Bangalore South and 19.78 per cent in Bangalore North.

K. Deepa, 37, a person with disabilities, of the Narikurava community, casting her vote at a polling booth at Devarayaneri in Tiruchi district on Friday.
| Photo Credit: M. MOORTHY

While ramps and wheelchairs were provided, complete accessibility to cast vote was still not achieved for the disabled community in the first phase of the Lok Sabha Elections that was held in Tamil Nadu on Friday.

For first time voter T. Saravanan, 19, a wheelchair user, the EVM was not accessible, leading to him not being able to cast his own vote. “I was very excited to take part in the elections but there was no space for my wheelchair to move into the EVM space. My mother had to vote on my behalf. I couldn’t even touch the EVM,” he said.

ALSO READ | T.N. registers 69.46% as polling passes off largely incident-free

Disabled persons highlighted that there was no accessible toilet while most polling booths were also missing handrails to help them up the ramps nor were the ramps at the right height for easy access. They also noted that they weren’t allowed to take their vehicles past the gate of the polling booth to access their booths.

K. Kamalnathan, wheelchair user voting in North Chennai constituency, crawled on the floor to reach the EVM. He said the officials offered to carry him. “Why should they? Shouldn’t I have my privacy and dignity to cast my vote,” he questioned.

Ummul Khair, a member of the Disability Legislation Unit said that she asked the officials to move the EVM to make space to accommodate the wheelchair and did not move until the space was made but her troubles didn’t end there. “I reached the EVM and realised I could not reach the buttons. It was difficult,” she added.

Meanwhile, Aranga Raja, who is visually impaired, used the braille sheet and Form 7A but found it difficult to cast his vote as the EVM was’t numbered and it was assembled from right to left, something which he was not prepared for. “The polling officer had to help me and my privacy to cast my vote was lost,” he said.

People with low vision complained that the rooms were poorly lit making it difficult to see the symbols while some others also noted that the symbols were small too.

“It has been a half-hearted effort. Despite access audits of the polling booths conducted out of the efforts of the community, many people were still unable to vote as the EVMs were not accessible or the ramps were too steep,” said Aishwarya Rao, member of the Disability Rights Alliance.

In Pallapalayam in Coimbatore, 77-year-old Shanmugham said he had cast his vote for 12 MP elections. “I had voted when Nehru was elected the Prime Minister,” he claimed. “I used to work in a textile mill. My movement is restricted because I suffered a stroke,” he said.

In Tiruchy, Mohamed Ibrahim (57) from Muslim Street, who had cast his vote at a polling booth at Al-Jamieathus Sadhik Matriculation School in Khajamalai, said he has been exercising his franchise without fail. “I eagerly waited for the polling day to cast my vote. I follow political news and strongly believe that effecting change is in our hands,” said Mr. Ibrahim.

New Delhi:

The 2024 Lok Sabha election begins this morning with voting for 102 seats across 21 states and union territories. The first of the seven phases in this election is also the largest, and will see all of Tamil Nadu’s 39 and Uttarakhand’s five seats vote, as well as 12 of Rajasthan’s 25, eight of Uttar Pradesh’s 80, six of Madhya Pradesh’s 29, and five each from Maharashtra and Assam. Bihar and Bengal will send four and three seats to the polls in this phase, and Chhattisgarh one of 11. Sikkim and the north-eastern states will all but finish voting today; only one seat in Tripura will not vote.

Among the 102 seats in play there are many high-profile clashes between candidates from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP and opposition parties, whether that is the Congress, Bengal’s ruling Trinamool, the Samajwadi Party, or the DMK from Tamil Nadu, or one of the other INDIA allies.

These are a selection of those prestige contests.

Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) – 

The BJP’s state unit boss, K Annamalai, has been fielded from one of the few seats – in a state where it polled less than 3.7 per cent of the votes in 2019 – where the party believes it has some traction. 

He faces the ruling DMK’s Ganapathi P Rajkumar, who was the city’s Mayor from 2014 to 2016. More significantly, he is a former AIADMK leader from the district. He joined the DMK in December 2020.

In 2019 the seat was won PR Natarajan of the CPIM by a margin of nearly 1.8 lakh votes.

A pugnacious, if divisive, political figure, Mr Annamalai was blamed by the BJP’s former ally, the AIADMK, for the parties’ break-up. That split was seen as a serious blow for a BJP looking to make its mark on Tamil Nadu, since it denied the saffron party a local anchor. The reaction, though, has been strong, with the Prime Minister launching a blitzkrieg of campaign rallies in the state, with the focus on Coimbatore and western Tamil Nadu, or Kongu Nadu, which is seen as AIADMK stronghold.

The tactic seems simple enough – look to capitalise on the recent alliance with the AIADMK. To that end the Prime Minister has attacked the DMK and the Congress, but praised late AIADMK icons J Jayalalithaa and MG Ramachandran, who were both former Chief Ministers. The BJP does also have some sway within Coimbatore itself, particularly after the serial blasts of 1998.

The BJP is not expected to make waves this election, but winning Coimbatore (and perhaps an improved vote share) will be seen as a statement, particularly with a state poll due in 2026.

Chennai South (Tamil Nadu) –

The Chennai South seat sees the return to electoral politics of former Telangana Governor and former Puducherry Lieutenant Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan, who faces a stern test from the DMK’s Tamilachi Thangapandian. The AIADMK’s J Jayavardhan makes it a three-cornered contest.

The Chennai South seat has been a DMK stronghold in recent years; TR Baalu held it from 1996 to 2004. Mr Jayavardhan won this seat in 2014. It is also a prestige seat since it contains the city’s business hub – T Nagar – and is home to many of its big IT companies. 

The BJP (and the AIADMK) will hope to capitalise on criticism faced by the DMK during December’s floods, when this part of the city was badly affected. They will also look to profit on any anti-incumbency against Ms Thangapandian, who is accused of neglecting the area, which she denies.

As with Coimbatore, the BJP will look to a strong showing in this seat to gauge how much of an impact the Prime Minister’s campaign visits have had on Tamil Nadu voters.

Gaya (Bihar) –

Bihar’s second-largest city is a major tourist attraction and a holy centre for three religions – Hinduism, Jainism, and Buddhism – as well as being mentioned in both the ‘Ramayana’ and ‘Mahabharata’. It is also one of six Lok Sabha seats in the state reserved for Scheduled Castes.

The contest this year is between former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and his Hindustan Awami Morcha (Secular) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Kumar Sarvjeet, who was the MLA for the Bodh Gaya segment that falls within the parliamentary constituency.

This seat is worth keeping an eye on because it is, on paper, an easy win for the BJP-led NDA en route to its goal of a clean sweep in Bihar. Jitan Manjhi contested this seat in 2014 and 2009 but lost, heavily, to the JDU’s Vijay Manjhi and BJP’s Hari Manjhi. This time the JDU and the BJP are allies.

For the RJD, part of the Mahagathbandhan alliance (with the Congress) in the state and the INDIA bloc nationally, this could be a tough nut to crack. But a strong showing here today could help the opposition pick up momentum going into the contests.

Pilibhit (Uttar Pradesh) –

The BJP has dropped sitting MP Varun Gandhi, who has been linked with what would be a big switch to the Congress, to join his cousins Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Varun Gandhi is a two-time BJP MP from Pilibhit, which has previously also sent his mother, Maneka Gandhi, to Parliament.

Mrs Gandhi is a six-time MP from Pilibhit. But neither mother nor son will contest this election, with the BJP opting for a big change, drafting in Congress turncoat Jitin Prasada to take on the Samajwadi Party (and INDIA) candidate Bhagwat Saran Gangwar. 

UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats and has, over the past elections, been a fortress for the BJP. Making dents in this fortress is crucial if the opposition is to unseat, or even unsettle, the saffron party, and winning Pilibhit will be a good first step in that direction.

Kairana (Uttar Pradesh) – 

A seat with a controversial recent history. Ahead of the 2017 state election several BJP leaders, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah, had alleged a large number of Hindus were forced to migrate from the area due to threats during the Samajwadi Party rule. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath raked up that controversy ahead of the 2021 state poll too. 

It didn’t seem to have any effect though, with the SP winning both times. The Lok Sabha seat has been more even, with the BJP winning in 2014 and 2019. The Rashtriya Lok Dal won in 2014.

In 2019 the BJP’s Pradeep Choudhary will look to defend his seat against the SP’s Iqra Hasan, who will also be the joint INDIA bloc candidate. This should, in theory, maximise votes gained for Iqra Hasan as the opposition looks to wrest another seat from the BJP in the politically key state.

Rampur (Uttar Pradesh) –

Staying in UP, next up is Rampur – the stronghold of SP leader Azam Khan, who continues to exert immense sway despite being jailed. This seat is worth keeping an eye on because of the drama leading up to filing of nominations. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s candidature and Azam Khan’s pick both turned up to submit their papers, leading to a mini, intra-party face-off, 

Bastar (Chhattisgarh) – 

This is the only one of the state’s 11 seats to vote this phase. Bastar is a Maoist hotspot, with encounters between rebel fighters and state security forces a common occurrence. In fact, just days before polling, 29 Maoists were killed in a massive gunfight in the area. 

In 2019 the seat was won by the Congress’ Deepak Baij, who is also the party’s state boss. More importantly, he was also one of the few who survived the ambush of a Congress convoy in 2013.

This seat is key not just because of the political narrative surrounding the Maoist threat or because it is one of only 11 seats in the state, but because Mr Baij’s victory in 2019 snapped a six-election winning streak for the BJP; Baliram Kashyap won between 1998 and 2009, and his son, Dinesh Kashyap, won it twice more – 2011 and 2014 – after his death.

Cooch Behar (Bengal) –

One of three seats in Bengal voting in this phase, Cooch Behar is in North Bengal, which is increasingly viewed as a BJP stronghold in a state where the party is slowly but surely gaining ground on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool. All three seats in this phase, actually, were won by the BJP, and for the Trinamool, getting them back is a priority en route to defeating Mr Modi’s party.

In 2019 the seat was won by junior Union Home Minister Nisith Pramanik, who has been fielded again. He faces the Trinamool’s Jagadish Chandra Barma Basunia. 

Manipur Inner (Manipur) –

Against the backdrop of ethnic clashes in the north-eastern state in May last year, which led to over 200 people being killed and tens of thousands being displaced, the fight for the Manipur Inner seat will be keenly watched, since it was won by the BJP in the last election.

Dr Rajkumar Ranjan Singh, the junior Education and External Affairs Minister, will not defend his seat, though. The BJP has tasked Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh with ensuring the Congress does not flip back this seat; the Congress’ Thokchom Meinya won this three terms straight starting 2004.

New Delhi:

The Congress on Thursday released its third list of 56 candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, fielding Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury from Berhampore, party chief Mallikarjun Kharge’s son-in-law Radhakrishna from Gulbarga and former Union minister Sushilkumar Shinde’s daughter Praniti Shinde from Solapur.

The Congress has left the Sikar constituency in Rajasthan for the Communist Party of India (Marxist).

With this, the party has declared a total of 138 candidates for the Lok Sabha polls.

In its third list, the Congress has declared candidates for two seats in Arunachal Pradesh, 11 in Gujarat, 17 in Karnataka, seven in Maharashtra, five in Rajasthan, five in Telangana, eight in West Bengal and one in Puducherry.

Former Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Nabam Tuki has been fielded from Arunachal West. In Gujarat, the party has named Sonal Patel from Gandhinagar, Prabhaben Taviyad from Dahod (ST) and Nilesh Kumbani from Surat, among others.

Mr Kharge’s son-in-law and the children of five ministers figure in the second list of 17 candidates for Karnataka announced by the Congress.

It has fielded Priyanka Jarkiholi from Chikkodi, Radhakrishna from Gulbarga (SC), Vinod Asooti from Dharwad, M Rajeev Gowda from Bangalore North, Sowmya Reddy from Bangalore South, Mansoor Ali Khan from Bangalore Central and state minister Lakshmi Ravindra Hebbalkar’s son Mrunal Ravindra Hebbalkar from Belguam, among others.

The Congress has fielded Shahu Shahaji Chhatrapati, a descendant of Chhatrapati Shivaji, from Kolhapur in Maharashtra. It has also fielded Vasantrao Chavan from Nanded and Ravindra Hemraj Dhangekar from Pune.

In Telangana, the party has fielded Sunitha Mahender Reddy from Malkajgiri, Danam Nagender from Secunderabad, Gaddam Vamsi Krishna from Peddapalle (SC), Gaddam Rajith Reddy from Chevella and Mallu Ravi from Nagarkurnool (SC).

In Rajasthan, the Congress has fielded Sunil Sharma from Jaipur, Sangeeta Beniwal from Pali, Urmila Jain Bhaya from Jhalawar-Baran.

The party has again fielded Mr Chowdhury from Berhampore, setting up the much-anticipated clash between the veteran Congress leader and cricketer-turned-politician Yusuf Pathan, who has been fielded by the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal.

In West Bengal, the Congress has also fielded Pradip Bhattacharya from Kolkata North, Mostaque Alam from Maldaha North, Ali Imran Ramz (Victor) from Raiganj, Mohammed Murtoja Hossain (Bokul) from Jangipur, Nepal Mahato from Purulia and Milton Rashid from Birbhum.

The party has renominated its incumbent MP from Puducherry, Ve Vaithilingam.

Also, the Congress has fielded Isha Khan Choudhury, son of Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury, from Maldaha South. Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury is the incumbent MP from the seat.

Earlier, the Congress had announced 82 candidates in two lists for the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls beginning April 19. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)