Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda speaks to media as he celebrates victory in the final round of presidential election in Vilnius.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda won re-election on Sunday in a vote marked by defence concerns over neighbouring Russia, official results showed.

The count published by the electoral commission showed that Nauseda won 76% of votes with 80% of ballots counted after polls closed in the second-round vote.

Voters “have handed me a great mandate of trust and I am well aware that I will have to cherish this,” Mr. Nauseda, 60, told journalists in Vilnius.

“Now that I have five years of experience, I believe that I will certainly be able to use this jewel properly, first of all to achieve the goals of welfare for all the people of Lithuania,” he said.

His opponent, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, conceded defeat in comments to reporters and congratulated Mr. Nauseda.

The Lithuanian President steers defence and foreign policy, attending EU and NATO summits, but must consult with the government and parliament on appointing the most senior officials.

While the candidates agree on defence, they share diverging views on Lithuania’s relations with China, which have been strained for years over Taiwan.

Both candidates agree that the NATO and EU member of 2.8 million people should boost defence spending to counter the perceived threat from Russia, and to that end the government recently proposed a tax increase.

‘Threat of war’

Vilnius fears it could be next in the crosshairs if Moscow were to win its war against Ukraine.

Lithuania is a significant donor to Ukraine, which has been battling Russia since the 2022 invasion. It is already a big defence spender, with a military budget equal to 2.75% of GDP.

It intends to purchase tanks and additional air defence systems, and to host a German brigade, as Berlin plans to complete the stationing of around 5,000 troops by 2027.

Pensioner Ausra Vysniauskiene said she voted for Mr. Nauseda.

“He’s an intelligent man, he speaks many languages, he’s educated, he’s a banker,” the 67-year-old told AFP.

“I want men to lead, especially when the threat of war is so big.”

Tension over Taiwan

Ms. Simonyte, the 49-year-old candidate of the ruling conservatives, was running for president again after losing to Mr. Nauseda in the last presidential ballot.

The uneasy relationship between Mr. Nauseda and Ms. Simonyte’s conservatives has at times triggered foreign policy debates, most notably on Lithuania’s relations with China.

Bilateral ties turned tense in 2021, when Vilnius allowed Taiwan to open a de facto embassy under the island’s name — a departure from the common diplomatic practice of using the name of the capital Taipei to avoid angering Beijing.

China, which considers self-ruled Taiwan a part of its territory, downgraded diplomatic relations with Vilnius and blocked its exports, leading some Lithuanian politicians to urge a restoration of relations for the sake of the economy.

Mr. Nauseda sees the need to change the name of the representative office, while Simonyte pushed back against it.

Gay rights

But voters also cited personal differences between the candidates, as well as economic policy and human rights.

Ms. Simonyte drew support from liberal voters in bigger cities and traditional conservative voters.

A fiscal conservative with liberal views on social issues, she notably supports same-sex partnerships, a controversial issue in the predominantly Catholic country.

“I would like to see faster progress, more openness… more tolerance for people who are different from us,” she said when casting an early vote.

Mr. Nauseda, who maintains a moderate stance on nearly all issues, has established himself as a promoter of the welfare state, with conservative views on gay rights.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Lithuania is holding a Presidential election on May 12 at a time when Russian gains on the battlefield in Ukraine are fueling greater fears across all of Europe about Moscow’s intentions, but particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.

The popular incumbent, Gitanas Nausėda, is favored to win another five-year term. But there are eight candidates running in all, making it unlikely that he or any other candidate can win the 50% of the votes needed to win outright on May 12. In that case, a runoff would be held two weeks later on May 26.

The President’s main tasks in Lithuania’s political system are overseeing foreign and security policy, and acting as the supreme commander of the armed forces. Those duties and the nation’s strategic location along NATO’s eastern flank amid a larger geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West add heft to the role despite Lithuania’s relatively small size.

There is great concern in Lithuania, and in neighbouring Latvia and Estonia, about Russia’s gaining momentum in Ukraine. All three Baltic states declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and took a determined westward course, joining both the European Union and NATO.

Mr. Nausėda, a moderate conservative who turns 60 a week after the election day, has been a strong backer of Ukraine, a position shared across most of the political spectrum. During his time in office, Lithuania has also given refuge to many who have fled an authoritarian crackdown in neighbouring Belarus and increased repression in Russia.

Mr. Nausėda, a former banker who entered politics with his successful presidential run in 2019, is seen as the “safe choice for voters of almost all ideological persuasions,” said Tomas Janeliūnas, an analyst at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Polls show that his main opponents are Ignas Vėgėlė, a populist lawyer, who is in second place according to recent opinion polls, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who is in third place in the surveys.

Not all voters view Mr. Nausėda as the safer option.

Asta Valanciene, a teacher from Vilnius, said that she would vote for Ms. Šimonytė because of the Prime Minister’s longer experience in politics than newcomer Mr. Nausėda.

“I would rather give her a chance than witness another five years of this random guy in office. I simply trust professionals,” Ms. Valanciene said.

A former finance minister, Ms. Šimonytė became Prime Minister in 2020 after a failed presidential run in 2019, with Mr. Nausėda winning that election with 66% of the votes in the runoff.

Mr. Vėgėlė gained popularity among some Lithuanians during the COVID-19 pandemic by harshly criticizing the lockdown and vaccination policies of the current government.

A second-place win for Mr. Vėgėlė could propel him to a prominent role in national politics before Lithuania’s parliamentary election this fall — and would be a sharp blow to the Prime Minister, said Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius.

“For first place, everything is almost clear, but it’s hard to say who else would get into the second round. Mr. Nausėda’s chances of reelection are high. However, this time, second place becomes very significant,” Ms. Urbonaitė said.

While both Mr. Nausėda and Ms. Šimonytė are strong advocates of greater military spending and big supporters of Kyiv, several other candidates call aid to Ukraine an invitation for Russia to invade Lithuania.

Mr. Vėgėlė’s comments on the issue of aid to Ukraine have sometimes been vague, and he has mocked those who advocate increasing defense spending to 4% of gross domestic product, double NATO’s target.

A referendum is also on the ballot on May 12. It asks whether the constitution should be amended to allow dual citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians living abroad.

Lithuanian citizens who adopt another nationality currently must give up their Lithuanian citizenship, creating vulnerabilities for a nation whose population has fallen from 3.5 million in 1990 to 2.8 million today.

If it passes, the parliament would be able to amend the 1992 Constitution so people who have acquired Lithuanian citizenship by birth will be able to keep it if they acquire citizenship of another country “friendly to Lithuania.”

A similar attempt to change the fundamental law failed in 2019 because turnout was below a required 50% of registered voters to be valid.