New Delhi:

About 60 per cent of terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir last year were of Pakistani origin, Army Chief Gen Upendra Dwivedi said today as he briefed media on the situation at the Line of Control (LoC). He also said about 80 per cent of terrorists who remain in J&K are Pakistanis.

“The situation (in Jammu and Kashmir) is firmly under control. On the Line of Control, the ceasefire which has been effective since February 2021 is holding on. However, terror infrastructure across remains intact,” Gen Dwivedi, who has vast operational experience along the frontiers with Pakistan and China, told reporters.

Gen Dwivedi said the infiltration attempts are also continuing, including from the International Border (IB) sector, along with drone attempts to smuggle warlike stores and narcotics.

He also said terrorist activities have increased in North Kashmir and the Doda-Kishtwar belt in recent months, but assured the overall violence parameters are “under control”.

ALSO READ | New ‘Terror Factory’ In Pak’s Abbottabad, Where Bin Laden Had Base: Sources

“We witnessed more than five lakh pilgrims during Amarnath Yatra this time and the peaceful conduct of elections (Lok Sabha and Assembly) are indicators of a positive change. The theme of terrorism to tourism is gradually taking shape,” Gen Dwivedi, who assumed charge as the 30th Chief of the Army Staff in June last year, said.

Army Chief On LAC Situation

The overall situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is “stable” but “sensitive”, Gen Dwivedi said, weeks after Indian and Chinese militaries disengaged from the last two friction points in eastern Ladakh.

“Patrolling and grazing in traditional areas has started in Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh,” he said.

He also said the Army is focusing on boosting border infrastructure and capability development.

“Our deployment is balanced and robust; we are capable of handling any situation,” he said.

India and China are restoring bilateral ties frozen for over four years due to the military standoff in Ladakh’s Galwan.

Indian and Chinese troops have started patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh after a gap of over four years, marking a massive de-escalation in border tensions sparked by a deadly clash between the two sides in 2020.

The soldiers patrolled areas in Depsang and Damchok on Thursday after informing the other side, a day after they completed military disengagement, in line with a patrolling agreement that they agreed to last week.

The soldiers also exchanged sweets yesterday at five locations on the LAC, including Chushul Maldo and Daulat Beg Oldi in Ladakh, on the occasion of Diwali.

Patrolling was stopped in Depsang and Damchok for about four and a half years after troops from the two sides clashed in Galwan Valley in June 2020, leading to the death of 20 Indian soldiers.

Tezpur (Assam):

After India and China reached a consensus on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said on Wednesday that this is not a small development and after prolonged efforts, the country has achieved success.

Rajnath Singh met Army jawans at Meghna Stadium in Tezpur, Assam.

The Defence Minister also celebrated Diwali, ate meals, and lit diyas with the soldiers.

Addressing the gathering, Rajnath Singh said, “I extend my congratulations to everyone as there has been a significant development recently concerning the border. India and China had been engaging in long-standing discussions at diplomatic and military levels to resolve certain territorial conflicts. After prolonged efforts, we have reached a consensus and achieved success.”

“This is not a small development. We have achieved this milestone due to your (Army jawans) courage and dedication. The mutual dialogue with China was made possible because everyone recognised your bravery and valour,” he added.

The Defence Minister also emphasised that India wishes to maintain good relations with its neighbours.

“This is India’s clear policy. However, there are times when we must struggle to protect our borders,” he said.

The disengagement process between India and China in Depsang and Demchok in Eastern Ladakh was completed today, Indian Army sources said on Wednesday.

India has been working towards resolving this long-standing dispute to restore the pre-April 2020 situation, prior to the onset of Chinese aggression in the area.

On October 21, India announced an agreement with China on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, ending the over four-year military standoff.

The border standoff between India and China, which began in 2020 in eastern Ladakh along the LAC, was triggered by Chinese military actions and led to a prolonged strain on bilateral relations.

Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Russia, where both leaders welcomed the agreement on patrolling arrangements along the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

Rajnath Singh was to visit Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh today but due to bad weather conditions, his visit was diverted to Assam.

“I consider myself fortunate that I received the opportunity to be among you on the eve of Diwali. I was scheduled to be in Tawang today. My ‘Badakhana’ was also scheduled to be held in Tawang with the brave soldiers there. But perhaps, God didn’t want that. He wanted me to attend the ‘Badakhana’ with the brave soldiers in Tezpur,” the Defence Minister said.

“The joy of any festival increases even more when celebrated with family. The bigger the family, the greater the joy. So, I make an effort to celebrate Diwali with my larger family – my armed forces family. That is why, I am celebrating Diwali this year with you, in Tezpur,” he added.

Notably, in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s gesture of celebrating Diwali with troops in forward areas, the top defence brass of the country is also celebrating the festival with troops in different locations across the country.

Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan is celebrating Diwali with troops deployed in the Andaman and Nicobar Command in Port Blair and took part in festivities there.

Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh Tripathi is celebrating the festival with naval troops at Porbandar in Gujarat which sees a lot of action related to nefarious activities from the Pakistan side and smuggling of contraband.

Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal AP Singh would be celebrating the festival with troops in the Jammu and Kashmir sector.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Mumbai:

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Sunday said the disengagement of troops at Depsang and Demchok in Ladakh is the first step, and it is expected that India will return to the 2020 patrolling status.

The next step is de-escalation, which will not happen until India is sure that the same is happening on the other side as well, the EAM said, obviously referring to China.

Earlier this week, India announced it had reached an agreement with China on patrolling along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, a major breakthrough in ending the over four-year-long military standoff.

Addressing a press conference in Mumbai, Jaishankar said consensus has been achieved on patrolling and disengagement in Depsang and Demchok.

“It is obvious it will take time to implement the same. This is the issue of disengagement and patrolling which meant our armies had come very close to each other and now they have gone back to their bases. We hope the 2020 status is restored,” he said.

The completion of disengagement is the first step. The next step is de-escalation which will not happen until India is sure that the same is happening on the other side as well, the External Affairs Minister said.

“After de-escalation, how to manage the borders will be discussed,” he added.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

It’s not a thaw yet, but there are certainly signs of some warming in the India-China relationship. Of late, there has been an uptick in dialogue to resolve outstanding issues along two friction points in Eastern Ladakh. At the same time, there is a fresh debate underway within India on economic engagement with China.

 July witnessed two meetings between the Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi. The first of these had indicated a softening of tone from Beijing. While eschewing remarks about putting the border issue in the “appropriate position”, Wang called for “properly handling and controlling the situation in the border areas, while actively resuming normal exchanges”. Following the second one, the Chinese statement talked about the need to “work for new progress in consultations on borderaffairs.” Since then, within a month, there have been two meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs. The most recent of these took place last week.

“Agreed To Turn Over A New Leaf”

 The Chinese readout following the conversation was rather positive. It said that both sides had “agreed to work together to turn over a new leaf in the border situation at an early date”. It further added: “The two sides exchanged in-depth views on relevant issues in border areas, further narrowed differences, expanded consensus, and agreed to strengthen dialogue and consultation, accommodate each other’s legitimate concerns, and reach a mutually acceptable solution at an early date.”

The Indian readout was much more contained. It said that “the two sides had a frank, constructive and forward-looking exchange of views on the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to narrow down the differences and find early resolution of the outstanding issues”. The impact of these meetings on actual resolution of the issues in Depsang and Demchok remains to be seen.

The Question Of Chinese Investments

Meanwhile, the Economic Survey released before the new NDA government’s budget in July indicated that India could be more open to Chinese investments in the future. Investments from China have had to face government scrutiny since the issuance of Press Note 3 in April 2020. The notification was seen as an effort by the government to direct Chinese capital in desirable domains. However, the standoff in Ladakh and the subsequent killing of Indian soldiers during the clashes in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 extinguished any appetite for Chinese investments. That situation seems to be changing now.

Earlier this year, it was reported that since April 2020, the Indian government has approved 124 investment proposals from bordering countries and rejected 201. Around 200 proposals are said to be pending with the government. A large number of these proposals were from China. While the scrutiny under Press Note 3 remains active, there has been some easing.

The MG Motor-JSW Deal

For instance, in March, the long-discussed joint venture between MG Motor India and JSW Group was finally sealed. It entailed Chinese auto giant SAIC Motor divesting a 51% stake.

Subsequently, in May, reports emerged that the government had begun moving on approving Chinese investment proposals with Indian firms on a case-by-case basis. In July, it was reported that the government had notified electronics and automobile manufacturers about plans to establish an inter-ministerial panel to accelerate the approval process for investment proposals from Chinese firms in Indian companies. The assessment would require the proposals to meet certain conditions, such as the significance of investment and technology for enhancing the local manufacturing supply chain, exclusion of Chinese nationals from the management and board of the investee firm and the Indian entity holding a majority stake in any joint venture.

At the same time, reports indicated that the Indian government was looking to fast-track visas for Chinese technicians and engineers, given that delays were hurting Indian industry. Then in late August, the Economic Times reported that the inter-ministerial panel had approved five to six investment proposals involving Chinese entities in the electronics manufacturing sector.

A Good Approach, But Not Without Perils

Being open to Chinese capital and talent, particularly those that aid the development of India’s manufacturing sector and deepen linkages with global value chains, is a pragmatic and prudent approach. It is, in fact, in India’s larger strategic interest to do so. This is not to argue that there isn’t any need for scrutiny. The External Affairs Minister is right to argue, as he did at a public forum last week, that given the current geopolitical scenario and India’s peculiar challenges with China, it is “common sense that investments from China should be scrutinised”. However, this should not be an ad hoc process. It is imperative to establish a new investment review mechanism with clear guidelines, conditions and timelines. This will engender greater predictability for industry, and ensure adequate democratic oversight. Such a process should also entail delineating a narrow set of sub-sectors as critical from a national security perspective and therefore walled off from Chinese entities. This list can evolve dynamically following periodic reviews.

That said, from the perspective of Indian industry, working with Chinese entities and being reliant on Chinese capital is likely to always remain a perilous endeavour. Politics and security have always come first in the India-China dynamic. Events over the past seven years since the Doklam stand-off have only further entrenched this trend. In addition, given the structural fault lines between the two sides, volatility is likely to remain a feature of the India-China relationship. The risks for industry, therefore, are always likely to remain high.

India Must Know What It Wants

Finally, while we are in a moment of policy churn, it is imperative for India’s political elite and strategic affairs community to deliberate on what it is that we desire in our relationship with China. Many have talked about the need for a new modus vivendi. But what are the contours of this new, desirable state of affairs that we wish to arrive at? And what does India need to do to get there? These are questions that need deeper yet urgent reflection, for policy to proceed with purpose and pragmatism rather than being reactive.

(Manoj Kewalramani is the Chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Rajya Sabha member from Sikkim Dorjee Tshering Lepcha has urged the central government to change the official nomenclature of how to refer to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

Speaking in Rajya Sabha during the discussion on the Union Budget 2024 on Tuesday, he said the border should be referred as the “Tibet border”. 

He said the 1,400-kilometer stretch from Leh, Ladakh, and Arunachal Pradesh to Sikkim borders Tibet more than China.

“This is not the China border. This is the Tibet border,” he told the Rajya Sabha.

He also said the central government should a directive to its agencies to officially call it the Tibet border.

Pointing out that near the border regions, China has built villages, while India has used them for reserved forests and wildlife sanctuaries, and has restricted access, Mr Lepcha asked the Centre to review the policy.

He also urged the Centre to consider reopening the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra route via Nathula.

Vientiane (Laos):

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar Thursday met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi here and emphasised the need to ensure “full respect” for the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and past agreements to stabilise the bilateral ties.

The two leaders, who met for the second time this month, also agreed on the need to give strong guidance to complete the disengagement process.

“Met with CPC Politburo member and FM Wang Yi in Vientiane today. Continued our ongoing discussions about our bilateral relationship. The state of the border will necessarily be reflected on the state of our ties,” Ms Jaishankar said in a post on X after meeting with Wang on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meetings in Laos.

Met with CPC Politburo member and FM Wang Yi in Vientiane today.

Continued our ongoing discussions about our bilateral relationship. The state of the border will necessarily be reflected on the state of our ties.

Agreed on the need to give strong guidance to complete the… pic.twitter.com/pZDRio1e94

— Dr. S. Jaishankar (@DrSJaishankar) July 25, 2024

The Jaishankar-Wang talks came amid the dragging border row in eastern Ladakh that entered its fifth year in May.

“Agreed on the need to give strong guidance to complete the disengagement process. Must ensure full respect for the LAC and past agreements. It is in our mutual interest to stabilise our ties. We should approach the immediate issues with a sense of purpose and urgency,” he added.

The two leaders met earlier this month in the Kazakh capital city of Astana on the sidelines of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

India has been maintaining that its ties with China cannot be normal unless there is peace in the border areas.

The Indian and Chinese militaries have been locked in a standoff since May 2020 and a full resolution of the border row has not yet been achieved though the two sides have disengaged from a number of friction points.

The ties between the two countries nosedived significantly following the fierce clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Astana/New Delhi:

Respecting the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and ensuring peace at the India-China border is essential, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has conveyed to his Chinese counterpart amid efforts to reduce border tensions between the two countries.

India and China have agreed to redouble efforts through diplomatic and military channels to address the remaining border issues, said Mr Jaishankar.

The two neighbours have been holding talks at different levels to resolve the dragging border row in eastern Ladakh.

Mr Jaishankar discussed the issue with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi this morning in the Kazakh capital of Astana on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.

Met with CPC Politburo member and FM Wang Yi in Astana this morning.

Discussed early resolution of remaining issues in border areas. Agreed to redouble efforts through diplomatic and military channels to that end.

Respecting the LAC and ensuring peace and tranquility in the… pic.twitter.com/kR3pSFViGX

— Dr. S. Jaishankar (@DrSJaishankar) July 4, 2024

“Met with CPC Politburo member and FM Wang Yi in Astana this morning. Discussed early resolution of remaining issues in border areas. Agreed to redouble efforts through diplomatic and military channels to that end,” he said.

“Respecting the LAC and ensuring peace and tranquility in the border areas is essential. The three mutuals – mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest – will guide our bilateral ties,” the Foreign Minister added.

India and Chinese troops had clashed in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh in 2020, followed by another clash along the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector in 2022.

After the Arunachal incident, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had accused China of trying to “unilaterally” change the status quo along the LAC.

India maintains that unless there is peace in the border areas, its ties with China cannot be normal.

London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington too – it’s almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda”.

In India, we often hear that we don’t cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope that suggesting a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) isn’t seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We’re buying more Chinese goods now than ever. In 2023, our bilateral trade hit over $136 billion. Hopefully, even those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi following the border skirmishes are more open to the idea now.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Major Geopolitical Shifts

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they’re open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even wondered recently why India does not try to cast its spell over the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood  

Both countries have the responsibility to lift millions of their combined 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China team up and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics. 

Read | Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much

The US and its allies might be shocked and deeply concerned by a close India-China partnership. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries as it aligns with their strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would cheer if this were to happen.

So, can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that while the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India, and ASEAN) countries. With US power on the decline, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.

A Rollercoaster Ride

The idea of India and China being close friends isn’t new. Historically, they’ve acted like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and make up repeatedly. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back over two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which started in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid a foundation of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation by Western powers, fostering a sense of shared struggle. 

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border issues with China, and they continue to strain their relationship. In the early 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, epitomised by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.

The rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi naturally leaned towards engaging with China. As Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he has visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

Conversely, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams

Many youth in India might not know that not too long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all spheres. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organisation comprising some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies for transforming Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China Is Revamping Its Military, And India Must Not Take It Lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan’s to become the world’s third-largest one by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, even though it feeds nearly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 stood at $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration Possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that hasn’t been matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in reducing poverty significantly. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaborating in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange, and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to stay a reliable partner in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives. 

India knows that neighbours with shared borders may fight at times, but they can still continue to believe in the ‘love thy neighbour’ dictum.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author