Following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah ​Ali Khamenei on Saturday (March 2, 2026), many senior U.S. officials remain sceptical that the U.S. and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime ‌change in the near term.

Before and after the start of the attack, U.S. officials, including U.S. President Donald ​Trump, had suggested that toppling the nation’s repressive governing system was one of several U.S. goals, in addition to ⁠crippling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

“I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment, and take back your country,” Mr. Trump said on Sunday (March 2, 2026) in a video posted on Truth Social.

But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious scepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can ‌topple the theocratic, authoritarian governing system that has been in place since 1979.

Also Read:Iran-Israel conflict updates

No officials consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran’s government, which currently is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing U.S. ‌and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.

But it is far from likely ‌or ⁠even probable in the near term, they said. Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House ⁠in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, two sources said.

One U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate in part because they have benefited from ​a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.

The CIA ‌assessments followed at least one report from a separate U.S. intelligence agency which noted that there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.

Such defections would likely be a precondition of any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. Those sources requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.

All of the sources Reuters spoke with for this story requested anonymity when discussing intelligence assessments. Mr. Trump himself said on Sunday (March 1) he ​planned to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting Washington does not see the government going anywhere, at least in the immediate term.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.

Lots of debate, less consensus

On Sunday (March 1), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council comprising himself, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of the Supreme Leader.

Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder ‌and disintegrate Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted any action, state television said on Sunday (March 2), after the two countries launched a wave of air attacks on Iran that included the bombing of a girls’ primary school. Reuters could not independently confirm the reports from the state media.

The U.S. intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible Khamenei killing have not been limited to whether it might lead to a change in government leadership.

Two of the U.S. officials said that, since January, there has been significant debate — but no consensus — among officials of various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s killing would lead to a significant shift in the way Iran ‌approached negotiations with the U.S. regarding its nuclear program.

U.S. officials have also debated the extent to which Khamenei’s death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its ​missile or nuclear facilities and capacities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.

Following the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s special envoy and a key ally, spoke several times with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the ⁠exiled son of Iran’s last shah, raising questions about the extent to which the administration would support his installment should Iran’s government fall, two officials ⁠said.

But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.

“At the end of the day, once U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the ‌Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on the rank and file standing aside or aligning with them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank ​in Washington. “Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those with the weapons, are likely to use them to keep power.”

Published – March 02, 2026 09:48 am IST

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
| Photo Credit: AP

A low-key moderate and a protege of Iran’s supreme leader are neck-and-neck in the vote count in snap presidential elections marked by voter apathy over economic hardships and social restrictions.

More than 14 million votes have been counted so far from Friday’s vote, of which the sole moderate candidate Massoud Pezeshkian had won over 5.9 million votes and his hardline challenger former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili over 5.5 million, provisional results by the interior ministry showed.

Some insiders said the turnout was around 40%, lower than expected by Iran’s clerical rulers, while witnesses told Reuters that polling stations in Tehran and some other cities were not crowded.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency said a run-off election was “very likely” to pick the next president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the result is declared.

The election coincides with escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic’s policies, its outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989.

The clerical establishment sought a high turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom.

The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran’s nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.

However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.

Pezeshkian’s views offer a contrast to those of Jalili, advocating detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalisation, and political pluralism.

A staunch anti-Westerner, Jalili’s win would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic’s foreign and domestic policy, analysts said.

LIMITED CHOICES

The election was a contest among a tightly controlled group of three hardline candidates and one low-profile moderate loyal to the supreme leader. A hardline watchdog body approved only six from an initial pool of 80 and two hardline candidates subsequently dropped out.

“Based on unconfirmed reports, the election is very likely heading to a second round … Jalili and Pezeshkian will compete in a run-off election,” Tasnim reported.

Critics of the clerical establishment say that low turnouts in recent years show the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Turnout was 48% in the 2021 presidential election and a record low of 41% of people voted in a parliamentary election in March.

All candidates have vowed to revive the flagging economy, beset by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions re-imposed since 2018 after the U.S. ditched Tehran’s nuclear pact.

“I think Jalili is the only candidate who raised the issue of justice, fighting corruption and giving value to the poor. … Most importantly, he does not link Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” said Farzan, a 45-year-old artist in the city of Karaj.

DIVIDED VOTERS

Pezeshkian, faithful to Iran’s theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour toward women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.

He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.

The unrest sparked by Amini’s death spiralled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical rulers in years.

Pezeshkian attempted to revive the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls for the last four years as a mostly youthful population chafes at political and social curbs. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.

In the past few weeks, Iranians have made wide use of the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, saying a high turnout would only serve to legitimise the Islamic Republic.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

In this photo released by the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran on March 9 denounced U.S. tech giant Meta’s decision to remove the Facebook and Instagram accounts of its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling it a “violation of freedom of expression”.

Instagram and Facebook are among the most popular social media platforms for Iranians, but while the government blocks their use, officials in the Islamic republic have accounts on them.

Meta said last month it had removed Mr. Khamenei’s accounts from Facebook and Instagram for having “repeatedly violated” its policy on “dangerous organisations and individuals”.

In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the move was “not only a violation of freedom of speech, but also an insult to millions of followers of his positions and news”.

“The mottos of freedom of expression by some Western claimants are hollow and showy slogans and a cover for their illegitimate political goals,” he told the Middle East Eye news outlet in remarks also published by Iran’s foreign ministry.

Mr. Khamenei, 84, has been the country’s supreme leader since 1989, a position that allows him the final say in major state policies. He had about five million followers on Instagram.

Meta’s move on February 8 came as Mr. Khamenei increasingly voiced support for Palestinian militant group Hamas and denounced Israel amid the war between the two sides in the Gaza Strip.

“Khamenei is the most prominent supporter of the oppressed people of Palestine and Gaza in the world, and the Silicon Valley Empire cannot prevent this voice from reaching the public opinion of the world,” Mr. Amir-Abdollahian said.

Despite the Iranian government’s ban on Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms including X, internet users in the Islamic republic can still access them using virtual private networks, or VPNs.