Two new studies, published in Nature and Nature Geoscience, have found that as climate change concentrates rainfall into fewer, more intense events, the land below may face a double whammy. In their May 13 paper in Nature, Dartmouth College, U.S., researchers concluded that more concentrated rain can reduce the amount of water stored in soils and aquifers across all global climates. This is because heavy bursts of rain can exceed the soil’s infiltration capacity, leading to an “infiltration excess” where water pools on the surface.

Monsoon 2026 LIVE: Southwest monsoon expected to onset over Kerala today

Because these intense events are typically separated by longer dry intervals, the pooled water evaporates instead of recharging deep soil layers. Their work suggests that the drying effect of precipitation concentration is roughly equal in magnitude to the wetting effect of increasing total annual rainfall, effectively neutralising potential gains in the availability of water in many regions.

In their May 25 paper in Nature Geoscience, researchers from across China reported a specific rainfall threshold of around 700 mm/year that seemed to determine how soil retains nitrogen. Below this threshold, the soil generally retains nitrogen because a limited amount of water restricts the movement of nutrients and encourages competition between plants and microbes. But above 700 mm, more moisture encourages leaching, leading to significant nitrogen loss.

These studies together suggest concentrated rainfall could blur the distinction between wetter and drier rainfall regimes. If a region receives 600 mm of rain in concentrated bursts rather than in steady intervals, the downpours could wash more nitrogen out of the soils than the annual rainfall total alone would suggest. An ecosystem could thus lose more nutrients while also suffering water shortage between storms.

Monsoon 2026: How to track clouds through IMD’s INSAT satellite imagery?

According to the Nature study, 27% of the world’s population will face abnormally dry conditions due to concentrated rainfall alone even if total rainfall doesn’t decrease. A growing body of research suggests the southwest monsoon is itself becoming more episodic, with more seasonal rainfall falling in intense downpours separated by longer dry intervals.

This, together with the Nature Geoscience study’s findings, suggests annual total rainfall alone may no longer capture how ecosystems respond to changing rainfall patterns. Intense rainfall events can wash away nitrogen, a nutrient crucial for plant growth, before it can be used, while the subsequent dry period can quicken water loss by evaporation. Traditional climate models that focus primarily on mean annual totals may therefore underestimate the risk of land degradation.

The southwest monsoon’s onset and declaration is expected today (June 4, 2026), with all eyes on Kerala.

The IMD (Indian Meteorological Department), had earlier said the monsoon onset over Kerala would take place on May 26. However, it was delayed, and the department stated on May 29 that the onset could occur the following week. 

How to track the Indian monsoon’s arrival through the INSAT-3DS monsoon cloud satellite imagery? 

As the monsoon is a closely tracked natural phenomenon in India, here’s how you can do it too.

How to see through IMD satellite services? 

• Open the IMD Satellite Page or the faster-updating IMD Rapid Scan Satellite Images

• On the menu bar, you can switch between the Asia Sector and the regional loops like the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal.

• Look for the massive dense cloud bundles moving from the southwest to the northeast. During the daytime, use the Visible channel to see the clouds. At night, use the Infrared-1 channel.

How to see more in-depth data about the monsoon?

The monsoon is not just about the rain that falls to the ground. It is also important to track the storms that are sometimes formed kilometers above the ground in the atmosphere. Here’s how you can track them: 

• On the IMD Satellite Services Page, select the Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) option. 

• The map will show dark red, purple, or deep white patches to denote the temperature of the clouds and, in turn, the monsoon storms essential for precipitation. 

How and when is the monsoon declared?

The monsoon is officially declared by the IMD after a certain amount of rain is received in designated weather stations across Kerala. The depth and strength of the westerly winds must also reach a predetermined altitude and speed. The monsoon is declared after it reaches Kerala and then proceeds to envelop the country.

Kerala monsoon onset: Why southwest monsoon arrival matters for India

Why is Kerala important to determine the onset of the monsoon? 

Kerala’s geographical position is a significant factor influencing its climate, particularly its monsoon patterns. Situated on the southwest coast of India, the state is positioned to experience the first impact of the southwest monsoon, which typically commences around the end of May and continues into September. 

Why is the southwest monsoon important for India?

The southwest monsoon is important for the country as it brings about 80% of the country’s annual rainfall. When the monsoon arrives on time and provides enough rain, it sets the stage for planting important summer crops like rice, pulses, and sugarcane. This helps in securing food supplies as well as improving the incomes of countless families.