Nair Service Society (NSS) general secretary G. Sukumaran Nair on Wednesday (May 6, 2026) said the Congress-led UDF’s win in the 2026 Kerala Assembly polls was not due to efforts of any individual, but an outcome of the people being “fed up” with the government and wanting a change.

Mr. Nair made the remark in response to reporters’ queries in Kottayam regarding Congress leader V.D. Satheesan’s role in the victory of the UDF.

Manjeswaram, one of Kerala’s most closely watched Assembly constituencies known for razor-thin margins, is headed for yet another tight contest in the Assembly election scheduled on April 9, 2026.

Bordering Karnataka, the constituency has largely remained a stronghold of the Indian Union Muslim League, an alliance partner of the United Democratic Front (UDF). Since the first election in 1957, the IUML has maintained dominance in the constituency, except during 1970 and 1977 (M. Ramappa), 1980 and 1982 (A. Subbarao), and 2006 (C.H. Kunjambu) when Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidates won from the segment.

The Bharatiya Janata Party began making inroads into the constituency in 1987 when H. Shankara Alva finished second, pushing the LDF to the third spot. The party’s position improved since 2011 when K. Surendran contested in the constituency. The segment has been drawing Statewide attention since 2016 when Mr. Surendran lost by a thin margin of 89 votes to IUML’s P.B. Abdul Razak. Though he did not contest in the 2019 bypoll, the party brought Mr. Surendran back to the fray in 2021 as in the 2019 bypoll the party’ vote share had reduced considerably. The BJP’s decision to field him once again has raised hopes among the party supporters as there was near parity in votes between the two fronts in the 2021 Assembly election.

However, the BJP faces a stiff challenge from incumbent MLA and UDF candidate A.K.M. Ashraf who enjoys considerable local support. Recent electoral trends seem to favour the UDF. In the latest local body elections, the UDF secured around 47% vote share in the constituency, increasing the gap with the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) vote share, which polled about 31%.

The constituency comprises eight panchayats—Enmakaje, Kumbla, Mangalpady, Manjeswaram, Meenja, Paivalike, Puthige and Vorkady. Both the UDF and the NDA have already begun election preparations in the constituency. While the LDF does not seem to have a strong winning edge in the constituency, its vote share is likely to play a decisive role in determining the outcome.

The LDF has fielded Communist Party of India (Marxist) district secretariat member K.R. Jayanandan in a constituency where even slender shifts in vote share could prove decisive.

SDPI stance

Seeking to regain relevance, the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) had proposed that it would back the LDF if it fielded Shanavas Padhoor, the former vice-president of the Kasaragod district panchayat, as an Independent candidate. With no positive response from the LDF, the SDPI is considering to field its own candidate in Manjeswaram for the first time. Party leaders claim that the SDPI has around 7,000 votes in the constituency. The decision marks a shift from the party’s earlier strategy of not fielding candidates in the constituency, largely to prevent the BJP from gaining ground. Local SDPI leaders say the move follows dissatisfaction among cadres who believe that the party’s growth has been restricted by the IUML leadership in the constituency.

In the 2020 local body elections, the SDPI won two wards in the Manjeswaram grama panchayat, polling a total of 1,860 votes. It had contested in eight wards then. In the 2025 local body polls, it contested in 13 wards in the panchayat and won two. It nearly doubled its vote share securing 3,617 votes altogether, reflecting a growing vote base but limited electoral success.

New developments have begun to complicate the political arithmetic in the constituency.

Konkani Christians

A section of the Konkani Latin Christian community has floated the idea of fielding an Independent candidate, citing the failure of successive governments led by the UDF and the LDF to recognise them as Latin Catholics for reservation benefits. According to leaders of the Konkani Latin Christian Association, about 7,000 members of the community live in Manjeswaram. Unlike other Latin Catholics in Kerala, they are yet to receive the Other Backward Classes status and the associated 4% reservation in government jobs and educational institutions. While discussions within the community are ongoing, opinions remain divided over whether contesting the election would benefit their cause.

However, with smaller groups such as the SDPI, Independent candidates and sections of the Konkani Christian community signalling independent moves, their votes could become decisive in a constituency where victory margins are traditionally narrow. Any fragmentation of the votes could significantly influence the outcome in what is expected to be one of Kerala’s closest electoral battles.

Once a titan of the Left, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) now finds itself adrift in a turbulent sea of electoral wipeouts and internal fractures. The party’s historic identity as a champion of the working class has been blurred by shifting alliances and repeated splinters, leaving its once-impenetrable strongholds vulnerable to erosion.

Already weakened by a decade of legislative absence, the party recently suffered a blow in the form of senior leader and State committee member Saji D. Anand’s defection and decision to contest as a BDJS candidate. Beyond his departure, Mr. Anand has levelled explosive allegations of a clandestine deal between the RSP and the LDF, claiming a secret vote-swap agreement was reached to trade support between the Eravipuram and Chavara constituencies.

This internal haemorrhaging comes at a time when the RSP is fighting to remain relevant in Kerala politics. While the party used to be a formidable pillar of the Left in south Kerala in the past, the RSP has struggled to find its footing since its dramatic crossover to the United Democratic Front (UDF) in 2014. Though N.K. Premachandran has maintained a powerful grip on the Kollam Lok Sabha seat, that success has failed to trickle down to the Assembly level. The performance of four RSP candidates in this election will determine whether it remains a viable force or fades into legislative history.

A multi-cornered battle

In Eravipuram, the contest has now turned into a complex multi-cornered battle. The LDF incumbent M. Noushad enters the fray with the formidable advantage of a 28,000-vote victory margin. Against him, the UDF has fielded Vishnu Mohan, the State secretary of the Revolutionary Youth Front. While Mr. Mohan represents a youthful face, he faces the uphill task of uniting a fractured local unit. The entry of Saji D. Anand as the BDJS candidate further complicates the arithmetic as the former RSP veteran could easily siphon off traditional RSP votes and neutrals.

The situation in Chavara is equally high-stakes. After suffering a stinging defeat in 2016 and failing to recover the seat in 2021, Shibu Baby John’s political future is tethered to this result. In a strategic bid for continuity, the LDF has officially re-nominated sitting MLA Dr. Sujith Vijayan Pillai for Chavara, setting the stage for a rematch. Kunnathur constituency, the only segment in Kollam reserved for the Scheduled Castes, has a deep-rooted Left tilt that is evidenced by Kovoor Kunjumon’s uninterrupted two-decade tenure. The battle for Kunnathur is also an ideological face-off between the mainstream RSP and its splinter group, the RSP (Leninist) which aligned with the LDF following the crossover. In 2026, the RSP has once again fielded Ullas Kovoor against incumbent Kovoor Kunjumon while the BJP’s Kollam East president Raji Prasad is the NDA candidate.

In Attingal, the ground reality remains daunting. In the last outing, the RSP was pushed to a distant third place behind the CPI(M) and the BJP. With the LDF’s O.S. Ambika holding a commanding 31,000-vote lead, RSP candidate Santhosh Bhadran faces a monumental task. Should the party fail to open its account again, the resulting migration of cadre and leaders may well signal the end of the RSP as a significant force in Kerala politics.