Thursday (October 9) marked a month since Nepal, especially the capital Kathmandu, witnessed anarchy. On September 9, a day after the youth-led protests, then Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned and fled to an army barracks following the deaths of 19 young people. The Nepali capital saw events of an unprecedented degree — the Parliament, government complex, and the Supreme Court burned till late into the night.

Since September 12, an interim Cabinet led by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki has been in place, with the mandate of holding elections on March 5. The official death toll of the two-day protests stands at 75.

The month since the protests has been uneasy, punctuated by festival holidays and rain-induced disasters. A proposed protest plan by a youth group for October 9 stirred fresh anxiety, though it was ultimately withdrawn a day before after some groups dissociated themselves. One youth group also demanded the resignation of the chief and members of the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority — Nepal’s top constitutional anti-graft agency.

These youth groups, broadly dubbed under the umbrella of Gen Z, led last month’s demonstrations, which were triggered by a social media ban and driven by anger at corruption and misrule. Now, they appear scattered and fragmented, which analysts say was inevitable given their structureless and leaderless nature.

However, campaigners argue that lacking formal leadership is not a flaw. 

Raskshya Bam, who organised and participated in the protests, said the youth took to the streets with specific demands — ending corruption and rolling back the social media ban.

“But as the situation unfolded, we are where we are today,” Ms. Bam, 26, said. “Everyone must realise the spirit of the protests… reform in a nutshell. Now the interim government is there with the mandate to hold elections, and that should be the goal.”

She expressed no qualms about different groups raising various demands, calling it natural for youth to have differing voices.

Government in a bind

As anarchy descended on Kathmandu on September 9 — with overwhelmed security agencies unable to maintain law and order — the Nepal Army stepped in not only to secure the capital but also to facilitate dialogue with President Ram Chandra Poudel.

It was at Army Headquarters that youth campaigners finalised Ms. Karki’s name after she won a vote on the digital platform Discord, a virtual public square for Gen Z, where they planned their protests.

Analysts describe this interim administration as hastily stitched together, backed by Gen Z but lacking solid political ground. Within hours of her oath, Prime Minister Karki dissolved the House of Representatives.

“A lack of political nature is the biggest challenge of this government,” said Keshav Dahal, a writer and political commentator. “The government and political parties appear to hold each other in deep contempt, which is likely to spoil the environment for elections.”

Nepal’s traditional parties, consigned to the back foot after the protests, are now resurfacing.

Deposed Prime Minister Oli addressed his party members on Thursday, dismissing the current government.

“Many say we have to wait till March 5 and should demand the restoration of the House if elections do not take place,” he told them, hinting at moving the Supreme Court for reinstatement of the House. “The House dissolution is unconstitutional, illegal, and undemocratic.”

His remarks come amid political parties’ refusal to commit to the March 5 elections. Concerns mount over whether the elections will take place as scheduled — and if they do, whether they will carry legitimacy if major parties boycott.

Gen Z campaigners say it’s incumbent on everyone to work towards protecting democracy.

“The interim government needs support from all sides — citizens, civil society, intellectuals, and political parties — to conduct timely elections,” said Ms. Bam. “After all, our protests did not mean — and we do not wish — to prohibit parties. They are key constituents in a multi-party democratic set-up.”

Political tensions

As the country eyes elections, accusations and counter-accusations are flying. Last week, social media buzzed with calls to arrest Mr. Oli and Ramesh Lekhak, who was Home Minister when 19 protesters were killed.

After an initial refusal, police agreed to accept complaints filed by those injured during the protests against Mr. Oli and Mr. Lekhak, with the caveat that the case would be forwarded to a judicial commission investigating the September 8-9 incidents. But the commission, led by a former judge, on Thursday sent the case back to police, saying investigation authority lies with the state apparatus.

Meanwhile, a student wing affiliated with Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) seeks to file a treason complaint against Balendra Shah, Kathmandu Mayor, and Sudan Gurung, a self-styled Gen Z leader.

Mr. Shah, who won Kathmandu mayoral elections independently, is held in contempt by political parties. He expressed support for Gen Z protests and endorsed Ms. Karki’s appointment as PM. Mr. Gurung leads Hami Nepal, an NGO. Though a millennial, Mr. Gurung has emerged as a self-styled Gen Z leader — a fact raising eyebrows among both critics and campaigners.

Economic costs

For a country already struggling economically, last month’s protests dealt a heavy blow. The World Bank revised Nepal’s growth forecast to 2.1% for fiscal year 2025–26, down from the earlier 5.4%.

In its South Asia Development Update, the multilateral agency said the September 8–9 unrest deepened political and economic uncertainty in Nepal. It warned that international tourist arrivals are likely to see a sharp drop, and weakened investor confidence could slow private investment.

The Hotel Association of Nepal estimates losses to the hotel industry at NRs. 25 billion (USD 176 million).

Path fraught with challenges

Analysts say the government faces a narrow window and a full plate.

Yug Pathak, writer and analyst, says the government can prove its legitimacy only by holding elections on time; otherwise, the risk of plunging Nepal into deep uncertainty and instability persists.

“Last month’s protests were sudden outbursts of youth anger, resonating with ordinary citizens, but it’s clear the movement lost its way quickly,” said Mr. Pathak. “It’s difficult to pinpoint who was involved or how peaceful protests went awry, but the events have left Nepal at a critical juncture.”

The Himalayan nation’s democratic trajectory has been shaped by various movements, but this recent one was unique, launched by a totally apolitical group of youths loosely and virtually tied together against the political class.

Ms. Bam, one of the movement’s architects, says the September 9 incident should not be viewed in isolation, as it came in response to brutal state force the previous day.

“This is the time to unite to put the country back on the democratic track, not to fight each other,” she said. “Political forces must come on board. Resentment breeds resentment. This is not what we want.”

Delayed dialogue

The Election Commission (EC) has called on any group intending to contest the March 5 elections to register as a political party by November 16. Earlier this week, Ms. Karki asked the EC to launch talks with political parties.

Analysts say the government, not the EC — a constitutional body tasked with overseeing election technicalities — needs to lead dialogue with political parties.

Government sources say modalities are being worked out for dialogue. “Talks will begin soon to bring parties into confidence,” said a government source, declining to elaborate or give a timeline.

But time is of the essence, and analysts say the government has yet to grasp the urgency.

“Nor has it foreseen the consequences of failing to hold elections on time. Political parties, for their part, are in denial,” said Mr. Dahal. “They have yet to accept that the youth protests were not against them, but against their misrule.”

With less than 150 days to go for polls, youth campaigners agree that the government must rise to the occasion. 

“Parties must reform, the system must function, and institutions must be strengthened to lay the ground for democracy to thrive,” said Ms. Bam. “Elections are the only way forward.”

(Sanjeev Satgainya is a journalist based in Kathmandu)

Nepal Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli on Saturday conveyed to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Lipulekh is Nepali territory, in the first such assertion by a Nepali leader before the Chinese President since 2015. Mr. Oli, who was on a five-day visit to China to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, also held bilateral talks with Mr. Xi in Tianjin in China on Saturday.

A statement issued by the Embassy of Nepal in Beijing said: “Referring to the recent understanding reached between India and China on border trade through the Lipulekh Pass, Prime Minister Oli stated that the territory belongs to Nepal and that the Government of Nepal has registered its strong objection to the same.”

A recent deal between India and China on August 19, during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi to reopen Lipulekh as a bilateral trade route, had sparked widespread opposition in Nepal.

India has historically claimed Lipulekh, along with Limpiyadhura and Kalapani, as its own. However, in 2020, Nepal published a map to lay claim to the territory.

Nepal’s statement has no mention of the Chinese response. A statement regarding the Oli-Xi meeting by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also silent on the matter.

Nepal Foreign Secretary Amrit Bahadur Rai, however, told the media that Mr. Xi, in his response, said: “Lipulekh is a traditional border pass, and an agreement has been made to operate it accordingly. China respects Nepal’s claim, but since the border dispute is a bilateral issue [between India and Nepal], it is something for the two sides to resolve.”

Mr. Xi’s response clearly seems to align with China’s standard policy, as its map released in 2023 also did not acknowledge the new Nepali map — which was viewed in Kathmandu as Beijing’s reluctance to accept Nepal’s claim, or tacit support for India’s traditional claims.

Nepali foreign policy watchers say the development is more likely to complicate the border issue than to resolve it.

Anurag Acharya, Director at Policy Entrepreneurs Inc, a Kathmandu-based think tank, says the visit has now become controversial because the Nepal Embassy in Beijing stated that Mr. Oli, during his meeting with Xi, expressed “strong objection” to the China-India deal to resume trade via the Lipulekh pass.

“This will undoubtedly have consequences for future dialogue between Nepal and India on the disputed territory, and possibly create further tensions in bilateral ties,” Mr. Acharya told The Hindu.

Both Nepal and India have expressed willingness to resolve border issues, but with differing framing.

After the August 19 deal, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the next day: “…the government of Nepal remains committed to resolving the boundary issue between the two countries through diplomatic means, based on historical treaties and agreements, facts, maps and evidence.”

Delhi reacted the same day, saying India remains open to “constructive interaction” with Nepal on the agreed-upon outstanding boundary issues through dialogue and diplomacy. Nepal’s territorial claims, India said, are “neither justified nor based on historical facts and evidence.”

Chandra Dev Bhatta, a Kathmandu-based political scientist, says the crux of the problem is how to find the door to dialogue.

“Nepal’s decision to publish the map and incorporate it in the constitution gives Delhi enough room to argue that the door has been closed,” said Mr. Bhatta. “And now, by raising the issue before the highest leadership of China — which says it’s not a party to that dispute — Nepal seems to have complicated the matter further, deliberately or inadvertently.”

Earlier in June, India and China had also agreed to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra via Lipulekh. In 2015, Nepal’s two neighbours had signed an agreement for trade via Lipulekh. The then-government in Kathmandu, led by the Nepali Congress’s Sushil Koirala, had sent diplomatic notes to both Delhi and Beijing. This time too, Kathmandu sent notes to both of its neighbours, according to Foreign Ministry officials. The Ministry, however, has not made any formal announcement in that regard.

Sanjay Upadhya, a U.S.-based Nepali author, said that Mr. Xi reiterated Beijing’s traditional affirmation that China has always supported Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

While preparing the press releases, both sides agreed to omit any reference to an issue that could affect — and even worsen — ties with India, according to him.

“As our Foreign Ministry took a calculated backseat in public, Nepal secured the ‘concession’ to allow its embassy in Beijing to issue a press release mentioning the Lipulekh issue, with our Foreign Secretary elaborating on the discussions between Mr. Oli and Mr. Xi, targeting a Nepali audience,” said Mr. Upadhya, the author of the book Backfire in Nepal: How India Lost the Plot to China.

Shifting sands

Though Mr. Oli was expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in China, it did not materialise. There is growing pressure in Nepal for Mr. Oli to raise the Lipulekh issue just as strongly with the Indian leadership during his upcoming visit to Bodh Gaya.

Mr. Oli is set to visit India but the date has not been finalised yet.

Mr. Oli’s relations with Delhi have not been smooth, largely due to his ultranationalist stance rooted in anti-India sentiment, coupled with a perceived tilt towards the north.

But lately, the sands are shifting. In light of setbacks in the neighbourhood — vis-à-vis Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives — and the United States’ recent harsh tariff moves, New Delhi seems to be making a renewed push for its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.

The invitation handed over to Mr. Oli personally by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri in Kathmandu was seen as a sign of the importance Delhi attaches to Nepal.

Mr. Oli’s visit to China — his second within a year — happened against this backdrop.

Mr. Acharya says Mr. Oli’s participation in the SCO is a significant development for Nepal, as this is probably the first time a government head has participated in the event.

“This could be good for Nepal’s future aspirations to become an observer and eventually a member state,” he said.

But regarding the boundary issue, Mr. Acharya adds that while Nepal is right to register its objection with the Chinese side, discretion should have been exercised on diplomatically sensitive matters.

“This public statement from the government will only complicate future dialogue with India on boundary disputes and put unnecessary stress on the committee that is tasked with negotiating the issue,” he said.

Oli’s foreign policy balance

The Chinese statement noting that Mr. Oli said “Nepal supports the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by China” has further perplexed some experts. Mr. Oli also attended the Chinese Victory Parade in Beijing on Wednesday. Nepal, currently a dialogue partner, is seeking observer status in the SCO.

Experts say Nepal’s efforts to seek observer status in the SCO, Mr. Oli’s nod to participate in the Beijing Victory Parade, and his support for the GSI create a larger diplomatic picture that suggests a tilt towards China.

According to Mr. Bhatta, Nepal’s diplomacy is on a tightrope — and in such times, the simultaneous nature of such moves could lead to increased concerns from India, the U.S., and other global partners about Nepal’s alignment.

The GSI, proposed by Xi, does not explicitly emphasise military action, but it does contain security components. There are concerns that participation in this could increase Chinese influence in Nepal’s security and political spheres. This could, some say, lead to increased dependency on China, as Nepal may be drawn into long-term commitments — both economically, via the Belt and Road Initiative, and politically, via security agreements.

“The shift in alignment might help Nepal secure economic and security cooperation with the north, but it could backfire if Nepal fails to maintain its traditional balance in regional and global politics,” Mr. Bhatta said.

This raises the question: at a time when Nepal faces immense challenges in navigating shifting dynamics, is raising the border issue with the leadership of a country that has minimal involvement a wise move — or a strategic misjudgment?

“After all, India has physically controlled the Kalapani region and the Lipulekh pass for many decades,” Mr. Acharya said. “And Nepal is in no position to challenge it without engaging [India] diplomatically.”

(Sanjeev Satgainya is a journalist based in Kathmandu.)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during an Indian community event, in New York, USA, Sunday (September 22, 2024)
| Photo Credit: PTI

Prime Minister Modi held separate talks with world leaders including his Nepalese counterpart K.P. Sharma Oli, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, discussing various facets of bilateral ties and reaffirming India’s support for the Palestinian people.

Mr. Modi is in New York on the second leg of his three-day U.S. visit and met the leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session.

“Had a very good meeting with Prime Minister KP Oli in New York. The India-Nepal friendship is very robust and we look forward to adding even more momentum to our ties. Our talks focused on issues such as energy, technology and trade,” Mr. Modi said in a post on X.

“Deepening the warm and close friendship. PM @narendramodi met PM @kpsharmaoli of Nepal, on the sidelines of the UNGA today,” the official account of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said in a post on X.

“The two leaders discussed matters of mutual interest to strengthen cooperation in all areas of age-old, multi-faceted and expanding – partnership,” it added.

Mr. Oli is in the U.S. on his maiden foreign visit to attend the 79th Session of the UNGA, breaking the tradition of visiting a neighbouring country first.

“Had a fruitful meeting with the Prime Minister of India Shri @narendramodi ji on the sidelines of #UNGA79. During the meeting, various matters of bilateral relations were discussed,” Mr. Oli said in a post on X.

Mr. Modi met with Palestine’s President Mr. Abbas and reiterated India’s support for the Palestinian people.

“PM @narendramodi met H.E. Mahmoud Abbas, President of Palestine, on the sidelines of UNGA today,” the MEA said in an X post.

“Prime Minister expressed deep concern at the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza and the deteriorating security situation in the region and reaffirmed India’s unwavering support to the people of Palestine, including continued humanitarian assistance,” said MEA.

PM Modi also met Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khalid Al Sabah and discussed ways to deepen “historical linkages” and “people-to-people contacts”.

“Taking new strides in India-Kuwait ties. PM @narendramodi met HH Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah, Crown Prince of the State of Kuwait today, on the sidelines of UNGA. The leaders reviewed – bilateral relations and discussed ways to further strengthen our historical linkages and strong people to people contacts,” the MEA said in a separate post on X.

Earlier in the day, Mr. Modi interacted with the top tech leaders and CEOs of the U.S. in a roundtable conference.

He addressed the Indian diaspora at the packed Nassau Veterans Coliseum on Long Island in New York before it.

Mr. Modi reached New York on Sunday (September 22, 2024) after attending the Quad Leaders’ Summit hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware on Saturday (September 21, 2024). In Wilmington, he also held bilateral talks with Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

(With inputs from PTI)

Kathmandu:

K P Sharma Oli on Monday was sworn in as Nepal’s Prime Minister for the fourth time to lead a new coalition government that faces the daunting challenge of providing political stability in the Himalayan nation.

The leader of Nepal’s largest communist party was appointed as prime minister on Sunday by President Ram Chandra Paudel to lead the coalition government with Nepali Congress (NC), the largest party in Parliament, apart from other smaller parties.

Oli, 72, succeeds Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ who lost the vote of confidence in the House of Representatives (HoR) on Friday, leading to the formation of the new government.

Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), Oli was sworn in by President Paudel at Shital Niwas, the main building of Rashtrapati Bhawan at a ceremony that was delayed by more than half an hour.

According to the news portal MyRepublica, the swearing-in ceremony was delayed due to the failure of the Nepali Congress to finalise the names of its ministers to join the government amid disputes within the party.

The President also administered oaths to the two Deputy PMs – Prakash Man Singh and Bishnu Paudel – and 19 other ministers. Singh would also look after the Urban Development Ministry while Vishnu Prakash Paudel would look after the Finance Ministry.

Arzoo Rana Deuba, wife of Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba is the Foreign Minister in the cabinet.

There are 10 cabinet ministers from Nepali Congress; eight, excluding PM, from CPN-UML, two from Janata Samajwadi Party and one from Lokatantrik Samajwadi Party in the government.

Outgoing Prime Minister Prachanda was also present at the ceremony, which was attended by foreign diplomats and other dignitaries.

Earlier on Sunday, President Paudel had appointed Oli as the new Prime Minister under Article 76-2 of the Constitution of Nepal, according to a notice issued by the President’s Office.

On Friday night, Oli had staked his claim to become the next Prime Minister with the backing of NC President Deuba and submitted the signatures of 165 House of Representatives (HoR) members — 77 from his Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) party and 88 from the Nepali Congress. (NC).

Oli will now need to secure a vote of confidence from Parliament within 30 days of appointment, which he is likely to secure easily as the minimum number to form a government in the 275-strong HoR is just 138.

Prachanda faced the vote of confidence as earlier last week, Oli’s party withdrew its support to that coalition and inked a new seven-point deal with Deuba to form a new coalition government.

According to the July 1 deal between NC and CPN-UML, the two parties will lead the government on a rotational basis until the next general elections scheduled for 2027.

Oli served as Nepal’s prime minister from October 11, 2015, to August 3, 2016 and then, from February 5, 2018, to July 13, 2021. He continued to serve from May 13, 2021, to July 13, 2021 — because of an appointment by the then President Bidya Devi Bhandari, described by local media as a success of Oli’s Machiavellian tricks. Later, the Supreme Court ruled that Oli’s claim to the post of prime minister was unconstitutional.

Nepal has faced frequent political turmoil as the country has seen 14 governments in the past 16 years after the Republican system was introduced.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Nepal’s former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

K P Sharma Oli was appointed Nepal’s Prime Minister for the third time on July 14 to lead the new coalition government that faces the daunting challenge of providing political stability in the country.

Mr. Oli, 72, succeeds Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda who lost the vote of confidence in the House of Representatives on July 12, leading to the formation of the new government process as per Article 76 (2) of the Constitution.

President Ram Chandra Paudel appointed Oli as the new Prime Minister of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)-Nepali Congress (NC) coalition.

Mr. Oli along with the new Cabinet will be sworn in on July 15.

Late on July 12 night, Mr. Oli staked his claim to become the next Prime Minister with the backing of NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba and submitted the signatures of 165 House of Representatives (HoR) members — 77 from his party and 88 from the NC.

Mr. Oli served as Nepal’s Prime Minister from October 11, 2015, to August 3, 2016 and then, from February 5, 2018, to July 13, 2021.

Nepal’s Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal delivers a speech before a confidence vote at the parliament in Kathmandu, Nepal, July 12, 2024.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ lost a vote of confidence in Parliament on July 12 after the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) withdrew its support for his government.

Prachanda received only 63 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR) and there were 194 votes against the motion. At least 138 votes are needed to win the vote of trust. A total of 258 HoR members participated in the voting while one member abstained.

Mr. Dahal, 69, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), had survived four trust votes since he assumed the prime minister’s post on December 25, 2022.

He faced the same predicament yet another time because ex-premier K.P. Sharma Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) withdrew support from the Prachanda-led government last week after inking a power-sharing deal with the largest party in the House — the Nepali Congress (NC).

Earlier, Speaker of the HoR Dev Raj Ghimire put Prachanda’s Vote of Trust for voting according to Article 100 Clause 2 of the Constitution. After voting was completed, he announced that the Vote of Trust was defeated with a majority vote.

Speaker Ghimire will now inform President Ram Chandra Paudel, who will invite two or more political parties to stake a claim for the new government, according to Article 76 Clause 2 of the Constitution. This paves the way for the NC and the CPN-UML to form a new coalition government.

NC, CPN-UML power sharing deal

The NC has 89 seats in the HoR, while CPN-UML has 78. Their combined strength of 167 is more than the 138 required for a majority in the lower house.

Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba has already endorsed Mr. Oli as the next prime minister.

Mr. Deuba and Mr. Oli inked a 7-point deal on Monday to form a new coalition government.

According to the agreement, they will share the premiership during the remaining period of the House of Representatives — Mr. Oli will become the Prime Minister for one and a half years and then Mr. Deuba will take the seat for the rest of the period.

Prachanda, whose party had 32 seats in the HoR, was elected the Prime Minister for the third time on December 25, 2022, with the backing of CPN-UML.

Prachanda was elected the Prime Minister as per Article 76 Clause 2 of the Constitution of Nepal, which has a provision for electing a Prime Minister with the support of two or more parties.

As the HoR session began in the early afternoon, embattled Prachanda sharply criticised the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML for striking an alliance “out of fear” rather than shared principles and accused them of pushing the nation toward regression.

Prachanda voiced concerns about potential regression and autocracy, asserting that the NC and the CPN-UML had joined forces as good governance began to take root in the country.

Kathmandu

Just less than two weeks ago, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ was oozing confidence.

On June 22, he told his party supporters that he had control over the “magical number” to lead the government till the next election. “With magic, anything can be fixed,” he said.

Since his election as Prime Minister for a third time on December 25, 2022, Prachanda, the chairperson of the Nepal Communist Party-Maoist Centre (NCP-MC), has switched sides three times between the Nepali Congress (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). First he left the NC to join hands with the CPN-UML. Then in February last year, he deserted the CPN-UML to form an alliance with the NC. And in March this year, he went back to the CPN-UML.

But what Prachanda said on June 22 did not go well with the CPN-UML chairperson K.P. Sharma Oli, who, as per an agreement reached with Prachanda, was supposed to lead the government after one year.

Meanwhile, NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba, jilted twice by the former guerilla leader, was waiting for an opportune time.

At the stroke of intervening midnight of Monday and Tuesday, Mr. Deuba, 78, and Mr. Oli, 78, signed a deal to oust Prachanda. Though the agreement reached between the NC and the CPN-UML — which have 88 and 79 seats, respectively, in the 275-member House of Representatives — has not been made public, they have said time has come to amend the Constitution and ensure political stability for which the two largest parties in parliament need to form a “national consensus government.”

The CPN-UML on Wednesday evening withdrew its support to the Prachanda government. Both the NC and the CPN-UML have called on Prachanda to resign and “pave the way” for the formation of a new government.

Prachanda, who leads the third largest party in parliament with 32 seats, has maintained that he won’t resign and that he will seek a confidence vote in parliament. As per the constitutional provisions, the Prime Minister has to seek a confidence vote within 30 days from the date a coalition partner withdraws its support. It will be his fifth confidence vote in one and a half years, but this time, he is almost certain to lose.

More than meets the eye

Observers said they were tired of being manipulated by Prachanda, 69, who leads the third largest party in parliament with just 32 seats. and Fuelled by their desire to return to power, Mr. Deuba and Mr. Oli were working on a plan for quite a while to give Prachanda a taste of his own medicine.

“It was known for quite a while that Prachanda’s game would end soon; what was not known was how and when,” said Krishna Khanal, a political scientist. “But the NC and CPN-UML’s claim of constitutional amendments for political stability lacks credibility. It’s only for public consumption.”

Mr. Khanal believes Nepali parties have mixed up government stability with system stability and misled the public by selling the idea of political stability.

“Governments may have changed frequently, but there is stability in the system,” he said.

“And it’s up to the political parties and their leaders to make the system work.”Meanwhile, yet another argument did rounds in Kathmandu about the new alliance. Both the NC and the CPN-UML were said to be in a bid to halt the Prachanda government’s plans to dig out some corruption cases, as they feared some of their influential leaders could be dragged in.

Home Minister Rabi Laimchhane said in parliament on Monday that preparations were under way to form a commission to investigate corruption cases. Leaders in private would not rule out the argument but refused to provide details.

Flaws in constitution?

When the NC, CPN-UML and the NCP-MC, Nepal’s major parties, decided to fast-track the Constitution on September 20, 2015, some sections of the society were protesting, saying the document further marginalised them. Since then two sets of general elections have been held. Nevertheless, the public’s aspirations and basic needs remain unfulfilled even as the country has transitioned from a unitary system of governance to a federal democratic republic.

The NC and the CPN-UML have blamed the electoral system as the main source of political instability in the country.

As per Nepal’s electoral system, 165 members in parliament are elected under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system, and 110 members are elected under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. The PR system guarantees inclusion, as parties are constitutionally bound to nominate women and people from the marginalised groups. Another 550 members are elected to seven provincial Assemblies under the same FPTP and PR systems. With chances of any single party winning a majority being slim, provinces have also become a hotbed of revolving door politics.

“It had become evident that there was a need to tweak the electoral system,” said Govind Raj Pokhrel, an NC leader. “There have been concerns that the current electoral system cannot ensure political stability.”

But a constitutional amendment is easier said than done. It requires two-thirds votes in both the Lower House and the Upper House to pass the amendments. The combined strength of the NC and the CPN-UML is short of a two-third majority. Some small parties with their base in the Madhesh region, along the southern plains, are unlikely to extend support to a move that aims at scrapping the PR system because they have been the chief advocates of the system.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party, the fourth largest force with 21 seats, has made its dislike for provinces clear, but whether it will be part of the agenda of NC and CPN-UML is not clear yet. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, which has 14 seats, has hinted that it would support the constitutional amendments. But the party is seeking a complete reversal of the Constitution to restore the monarchy and Nepal as a Hindu state.

Mr. Khanal believes, in light of growing concerns, that none of the governments has been able to address public concerns and there may be a need to “review” some constitutional provisions. “But this current constitutional amendment claim is not achievable – neither politically nor mathematically,” he said.

Slippery slope

C. K. Lal, a political analyst, said the very idea of changing the electoral system stems from the CPN-UML’s regressive stance.

“There are three ideas in play – changing the electoral system, reversing federalism and a backward journey to the 1990 Constitution,” said Mr. Lal. “This has been the CPN-UML’s official position.” The NC and the CPN-UML played the leading role in restoration of democracy in Nepal in 1990, and the Constitution that was promulgated then maintained constitutional monarchy.

“The NC so far has been in two minds,” said Mr. Lal. “Therefore, the new alliance’s rallying cry for constitutional amendments is also an attempt to test the waters.”

“And they needed an excuse as well to unseat Prachanda,” he added.

According to the deal, Mr. Oli, a two-time PM, will lead the government for the first half of the remaining three and a half years of the current Assembly, and create ground for constitutional amendments. He will then hand over power to Mr. Deuba, a five-time PM, to oversee the 2027 election. Nevertheless, there have not been any consultations within these parties on the content of the amendments.

Meanwhile, concerns have grown that the two largest parties forming the government could render the parliament Opposition-less.

Mr. Khanal, however, says there has been such a rapid degradation of political culture in Nepal that parliament has, by and large, always been without an effective Opposition.

“The Constitution demands some behaviour and character from political parties,” he said. “With opportunism becoming the new normal, the NC and the CPN-UML have contrived a ruse to conceal their failure, and ensure their return to power by subterfuge.”

(Sanjeev Satgainya is an independent journalist based in Kathmandu)