Panama is on the verge of a dramatic change to its immigration policy that could reverberate from the dense Darien jungle to the U.S. border.

President-elect José Raúl Mulino says he will shut down a migration route used by more than 500,000 people last year. Until now, Panama has helped speedily bus the migrants across its territory so they can continue their journey North.

Whether Mr. Mulino is able to reduce migration through a sparsely populated region with little Government presence remains to be seen, experts say.

“Panama and our Darien are not a transit route. It is our border,” Mr. Mulino said after his victory with 34% of the vote in Sunday’s election was formalised on May 9 evening.

As he had suggested during his campaign, the 64-year-old Lawyer and former security Minister said he would try to end “the Darien odyssey that does not have a reason to exist”.

The migrant route through the narrow isthmus grew exponentially in popularity in recent years with the help of organised crime in Colombia, making it an affordable, if dangerous, land route for hundreds of thousands.

It grew as countries like Mexico, under pressure from the U.S. Government, imposed visa restrictions on various nationalities including Venezuelans and just this week Peruvians in an attempt to stop migrants flying into the country just to continue on to the U.S. border.

But masses of people took the challenge and set out on foot through the jungle-clad Colombian-Panamanian border. A crossing that initially could take a week or more eventually was whittled down to two or three days as the path became more established and entrepreneurial locals established a range of support services.

It remains a risky route, however. Reports of sexual assaults have continued to rise, some migrants are killed by bandits in robberies and others drown trying to cross rushing rivers.

Migrants dead, missing after boat capsizes off Panama coast

Even so, some 147,000 migrants have already entered Panama through Darien this year.

Previous attempts to close routes around the world have simply shifted traffic to riskier paths.

“People migrate for many reasons and frequently don’t have safe, orderly and legal ways to do it,” said Giuseppe Loprete, chief of mission in Panama for the UN’s International Organisation for Immigration.

“When the legal routes are not accessible, migrants run the risk of turning to criminal networks, traffickers and dangerous routes, tricked by disinformation.” Loprete said the UN agency’s representatives in Panama would meet with Mr. Mulino’s team once its member are named to learn the specifics of the president’s plans.

If Mr. Mulino could be even partially effective, it could produce a notable, but likely temporary, impact. As with the visa restrictions that unintentionally steered migrants to the overland route through Panama, if the factors pushing migrants to leave their countries remain they will find other routes. One could be the dangerous sea routes from Colombia to Panama.

In a local radio interview on May 9, Mr. Mulino said the idea of shutting down the migration flow is more philosophical than a physical obstacle.

“Because when we start to deport people here in an immediate deportation plan the interest for sneaking through Panama will decrease,” he said. By the time the fourth plane loaded with migrants takes off, “I assure you they are going to say that going through Panama is not attractive because they are deporting you.” Julio Alonso, a Panamanian security expert, said what Mr. Mulino could realistically achieve is unknown.

“This would be a radical change to Panamanian policy in terms of migration to avoid more deaths and organised crime using the route,” he said.

Among the challenges will be how it would work operationally along such an open and uncontrolled border.

“In Panama, there is no kind of suppression with this situation, just free passage, humanitarian aid that didn’t manage to reduce the number of assaults, rapes, homicides and deaths along the Darien route,” Mr. Alonso said.

Mr. Mulino’s proposal is “a dissuasive measure, yes, (but) whether it can be completely executed we will see”.

It’s also unlikely that much could be accomplished without a lot of cooperation and coordination with Colombia and other countries, he said.

Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, said that “without considering the risk of returning migrants to dangerous situations, in mathematical terms I don’t know how they hope to massively deport” migrants.

“A daily plane, which would be extremely expensive, would only repatriate around 10 per cent of the flow (about 1,000 to 1,200 per day). The United States only manages to do about 130 flights monthly in the entire world,” Mr. Isacson said.

José Raúl Mulino, the stand-in for former President Ricardo Martinelli in Panama’s presidential election, was set to become the new leader of the Central American nation as authorities unofficially called the race on May 5 night after his three nearest rivals conceded.

The 64-year-old former Security Minister had nearly 35% of the votes with more than 92% of the votes counted, giving him a nine-point lead over his nearest competitor.

Mr. Mulino replaced Mr. Martinelli as a candidate after the firebrand former leader was banned from running after being sentenced to 10 years in prison for money laundering.

“Mission accomplished,” Mr. Mulino told a crowd of supporters, adding an expletive for emphasis. ”This is perhaps the most important date of my life, and the greatest responsibility of a Panamanian falls on my shoulders and my family to lead the destiny of the nation.”

In his speech, he nodded to Mr. Martinelli, saying: “When you invited me to be Vice President, I never imagined this.”

Mr. Mulino, a less charismatic politician, coasted on Mr. Martinelli’s popularity and the booming economy seen under the former leader as Mr. Martinelli campaigned while staying in the Nicaraguan Embassy, where he had sought asylum.

Now, following one of the most tumultuous elections in Panama’s recent history, Mr. Mulino is about to become the new leader of a country with pressing challenges and simmering discontent among many.

The President will grapple with a slowed economy, historic levels of migration, a drought that is handicapping transit in the Panama Canal and the economic aftermath of mass anti-mining protests last year.

“It’s a very bizarre situation, unprecedented. I haven’t seen anything quite like this, not only in Panama but any other Latin American country that I could think of,” said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue. “Panama is in for a tumultuous period.”

Preliminary results showed that more than 77% of eligible voters cast ballots, a historic turnout in a country where voting is not obligatory, further underscoring the importance of the election in the minds of Panamanians.

Panama doesn’t have a runoff system, so the candidate with the biggest share of votes wins.

Mr. Mulino, running under the Achieving Goals and Alliance parties, faced off against anti-corruption candidate Ricardo Lombana, who trailed in second, former President Martín Torrijos and former candidate Rómulo Roux.

All three conceded on May 5 evening, and outgoing President Laurentino Cortizo’s office said he called Mr. Mulino to offer congratulations and pledge to work with him for an orderly transition.

Mr. Mulino’s ties with Mr. Martinelli are what seemed to pull him across the finish line. Mr. Mulino ran on the promise to usher in another wave of economic prosperity, and stop migration through the Darien Gap, the perilous jungle region overlapping Colombia and Panama that was traversed by half a million migrants last year.

The lawyer also vowed to help his ally in his legal woes. After voting on May 5, Mr. Mulino strolled into the Nicaraguan Embassy trailed by photographers and wrapped Mr. Martinelli in a big hug, saying, “Brother, we’re going to win!”

Before even half of the votes had been counted, supporters in Mr. Mulino’s campaign headquarters erupted in celebration, singing and waving flags.

Mr. Martinelli posted a blurry photo of his own face on the X social media platform, writing: “This is the face of a happy and content man.” Now that Mr. Mulino is on his way in, what remains unclear is if the president-elect will become “Martinelli’s puppet” or if he’ll chart his own path, Mr. Shifter said.

Despite the fatigue of endemic corruption in Panama, many voters like Juan José Tinoco were willing to overlook the other corruption scandals plaguing their former leader in favour of the humming economy seen during his presidency. The 63-year-old bus driver voted for Mr. Mulino from his working-class area of small, concrete houses surrounded by extravagant skyscrapers.

“We have problems with health services, education, we have garbage in the streets … and corruption that never goes away,” Tinoco said. “We have money here. This is a country that has lots of wealth, but we need a leader who dedicates himself to the needs of Panama.”

The presidential race had been in uncertain waters until May 3 morning when Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that Mr. Mulino was permitted to run. It said he was eligible despite allegations that his candidacy wasn’t legitimate because he wasn’t elected in a primary.

Mr. Mulino faces an uphill battle moving forward, on the economy especially. Last year, the Central American nation was roiled for weeks by mass anti-government protests, which came to encapsulate deeper discontent among citizens.

The protests targeted a government contract with a copper mine, which critics said endangered the environment and water at a time when drought has gotten so bad that it has effectively handicapped trade transit through the Panama Canal.

While many celebrated in November when the country’s Supreme Court declared the contract unconstitutional, the mine closure and slashed canal transit will put Panama’s new leader in a tight spot.

Meanwhile, the country’s debt is skyrocketing and much of the economy has slowed, said Mr. Shifter, of Inter-American Dialogue, making it even harder for Mr. Mulino to regularize canal transit and staunch soaring levels of migration through the Darien Gap.

“Panama is at a very different moment than it’s been over the last 30 years,” Mr. Shifter said. Mr. Mulino “is going to face formidable obstacles. I mean, it’s going to be a daunting task for him.”