The party started almost a year ago. On Instagram, a 71-year-old former military general posed wearing a white hoodie and a mild smile. To his followers, it made him look “ganteng”, “gemes” and “gemoy”. Handsome, cute. At election rallies and interviews over the next months, the General perfected his signature dance moves — an awkward flapping of the arms, a disciplined sway of the shoulders. The commander was decades ago linked to military brutality and abductions; but today, he has cultivated a figure that has charmed his supporters, who have branded themselves the Gemoy Squad. At the final rally, he shot hearts at the audience before singing an offkey rendition of Indonesia’s old independence song. People cried, ambulances were called.

Welcome to Prabowo Subianto’s dance party. An invitation to young Indonesians to celebrate the 2024 election, the largest one-day electoral exercise in the world, with joy. Mr. Subianto has much to be joyful about. On February 14, Mr. Subianto declared victory in a historic three-way presidential race, with unofficial counts showing a significant lead over his opponents. The soldier, who turned statesman two decades ago, had contested unsuccessfully twice before, changed his tack from being a populist to a loyalist, and transformed his image from strongman to cute, cuddly grandfather.

Cultural heritage connect us, thank Indonesian people for preserving it: Modi at Prambanan Temple complex

His time has come. It may take up to a month for official counts, but analysts say Mr. Subianto is likely to succeed the wildly popular Joko Widodo (known as ‘Jokowi’) to be the archipelago’s next President, with Mr. Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the Vice President. This is the first change in leadership in a decade, and to his young supporters, Mr. Subianto promises political continuity and economic prosperity. To his critics, who remember darker days, Mr. Subianto stands as a relic of Indonesia’s autocratic past; even a bellwether of its threatened democratic future.

A political elite

Mr. Subianto was born into an aristocratic family in Jakarta in 1951. His lineage goes back to the sultans of Mataram,— Javanese rulers who came before the Dutch East India Company in the 18th century. His father, the famed economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, became a vocal critic of the nation’s founding president Sukarno and went into exile, shifting the family from Singapore to London, Kuala Lumpur to Zurich. The young Mr. Subianto spoke in an interview about early experiences of racism and “a strong sense of superiority among white people” in a new post-colonial world. “They often insulted me at school. I was always part of the minority…Because we were often bullied, often insulted, we became tough,” he told The Politic.

The family returned to Indonesia only in the late 1960s, at the beginning of autocrat Suharto’s 30-year-long reign. Mr. Subianto would eventually marry Siti Hediati Harijadi, Suharto’s second daughter.

One of Mr. Subianti’s role models is Turkish military figure Atatürk. His house is lined with books, oil paintings of horses, and vintage photographs of Sukarno, according to a Sydney Morning Herald article. In other interviews, Mr. Subianto has expressed his love for animals and has reportedly instructed his staff to not harm any creature in his mountain retreat home in West Java. “When we grow up and see human nature, there’s betrayal, perfidy, lying.” It’s easier with animals, he said in an interview. “You are loyal to them. They are loyal to you.”

When asked in an interview why he dances, he said he draws inspiration from his grandfather. “Every time there is good news or happy news, he would always dance like that.”

A controversial past

A young Mr. Subianto received military training in the 1980s from the U.S. military station then called Fort Benning, and rose through the ranks to become a commander of the special armed forces Kopassus. There, Mr. Subianto was accused of fomenting anti-Chinese riots and directing the killing of separatists in East Timor, which Indonesia was occupying at the time. He denied responsibility and later remarked: “They had to have a fall guy, somebody to take responsibility.” This sentiment prevailed after a 1996 mission in Papua too, when he allegedly used a Red Cross insignia on his helicopter to free European hostages, a sign that may have drawn villagers out into the open. Two hostages were freed, hundreds of locals killed. “I should be given a knighthood by your government… I put my own life at risk and my soldiers were killed,” Mr. Subianto told a Financial Times reporter in 2013.

In 1998, when Suharto’s regime fell at the peak of the Asian financial crisis, Mr. Subianto was also dishonourably discharged from the military for his role in human rights abuses, including the disappearance of 23 democracy activists (13 of whom were never found). He was briefly banned from travel to the U.S. The allegations have not been proven in court, and Mr. Subianto has never accepted or denied the allegations. “I’m a proud alumnus of the Indonesian military,” he said in a 2017 interview.

The military career came to an end. Mr. Subianto’s went into self-imposed exile to Jordan in 2002, supported by his brother Hashim who had built his wealth upon oil, palm and mineral exchange dealings. In a 2017 interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, Mr. Subianto remarked that he could have enjoyed a simpler life of mountain retreats surrounded by horses and purple bougainville, but he feared Indonesia was becoming a “banana republic”. With Hashim’s financial backing, the former military general started Gerindra, the Great Indonesian Movement Party. Who were his role models in this political journey? Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra (who faced similar charges of human rights violations). Thaksin was a “bit abrasive, divisive”, but “got things done and the poor love him”, he told FT. Also on this list: Jawaharlal Nehru who “came from came from a wealthy family but always defended the poor”.

A CIA internal intelligence assessment, back in 1983, like a prophecy predicted the captain exemplified “the type of officer who could rise to national leadership”. The now-declassified documents added: “We believe that President Suharto may eventually look to his son-in-law to succeed him both as national leader and as guardian of the Suharto family fortunes.” 

A ‘TikTok General’

Prophecies don’t come with a timeline. Mr. Subianto’s presidential aspirations have been 22 years in the making. He failed to secure a nomination from Suharto’s party in 2004. He ran a populist campaign in 2014, arguing that the system is diseased.. He alleged electoral fraud upon losing to the incumbent Mr. Widodo, which sparked deadly riots in Jakarta. He lost again in 2019, and was later given the defence portfolio under Mr. Widodo’s cabinet.

2024 was different on two accounts. One, there was a political transformation. He went from being a hardline nationalist and Islamist to a loyalist, integrating himself with Indonesia’s political elite. Mr. Widodo, who has served two full terms in office, enjoys an approval rating of more than 80%, with Indonesians largely favourable to the development and social welfare measures he has put in place. “Anyone who has caught Widodo’s blessing has the keys to the presidential palace,” said human rights advocate Andreas Harsono in an interview. He swapped corruption charges against his rivals in favour of praising them and making “political courtesy visits” to his rivals. Mr. Widodo has not given his explicit approval to any candidate, but his son Gibran’s pick as Mr. Subianto’s running mate is seen as tacit approval. Mr. Subianto also aspires to be the first President in Indonesia’s history under whom every single party will be in the cabinet, a pledge to continue the legacy of coalition governments in the last two decades. Scholar Marcus Meitzner in an interview argued that the General is framing himself as a “president for everyone” and covering all ideological elements of Indonesian society. If one opponent Anies Baswedan is too religious, and the other Ganjar Pranowo a leftist national, then Mr. Subianto presents “a blend of all of the ideological currents.”

His outfits hint at this fluidity too: he went from wearing Safari suits to double-breasted blazers, and now casual untucked hanging shirts.

Two, Mr. Subianto’s popularity this time around leveraged Indonesia’s young electorate, who comprise more than half of Indonesia’s 204 million eligible voters spread across some 17,000 islands. This is also a demographic that has no living memory of Mr. Subianto’s autocratic past. Analysts note his campaign has been designed for the TikTok generation, packaging him as a ‘cuddly dancing grandpa’, his new avatar presented on posters plastered across Indonesia. Mr. Subianto’s Instagram is well-curated, with pictures of food, vintage family portraits, dance moves, and his cat Bobby shared with his 11 million followes (Bobby has an individual Instagram account too). “Prabowo’s team is portraying Prabowo in a ‘softer’ way in an effort to win over undecided voters…” Ross Tapsell of the Australian National University told Reuters. The avatar is everywhere, and successful so far: one poll showed 60% of Gen-Z voters and 42% of millennials support Mr. Subianto.

Commenting on this makeover, his campaign manager Rosan Roeslani said in a report: “People know already Mr. Prabowo is very assertive, but we need to show the other side of Mr. Prabowo.” Spectators have described the General’s pre-2019 persona as aggressive and mercurial, prone to “uncontrollable temper”. “I do have a temper but is it terrible or not?” Mr. Subianto quipped in an interview. Now, he is mellow an innocuous defender of the poor. “We should not be arrogant, we should not be proud, we should not be euphoric, we still have to be humble, this victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people,” Mr. Subianto said in his victory speech on February 15. He wore a matching checked shirt, the same as his running mate.

Some worry there is a danger to Mr. Subianto’s revisionism of history. Because of TikTok virality, young voters may remain unaware that Mr. Subianto was linked to human rights abuses during his military career, said Endah Triastuti, a communications researcher at the University of Indonesia. Others, however, including Chatham Houses’s Ben Bland argued that the former general’s dictatorial past is unlikely to be a threat to Indonesian democracy: people’s enthusiasm “reflects their conviction that he will uphold Jokowi’s positive economic legacy” and a “faith that their democratic institutions can rein in even a strong-willed president”.

here is also a desire to judge the General based on present issues of employment and inflation rather than the sins of the past. “I think the past stays in the past…everybody at some point has an intention to reform [themselves]. And now he is different,” a 17-year-old told the Sydney Morning Herald at an election rally. O

Mr. Subianto, while referring to his time as a soldier in a recent interview, said: “Maybe the perception of me was that I was tough, scary. I am not scary now, right?”  

A Prabowo presidency

Once confirmed, Mr. Subianto will be the third ruler directly elected to office since Indonesia became a democracy. His pro-youth messaging is programmed in his election promises too. Like other candidates, Mr. Subianto has pledged to expand economic initiatives, increase social security cover, create new jobs, and build the new capital city, but analysts note these promises “lack serious reform commitment”. However, observers doubt if his mercurial persona is fully stripped away. Mr. Meitzner argued that the new President will not always keep Mr. Widodo in his orbit, and it is only “inevitable” that Mr. Subianto untethers himself from the incumbent once he develops his sources of political power. “No one knows how Prabowo will govern…most who know him well emphasise his unpredictable personality. And that’s never good for governance,” said scholar Eve Warburton to BBC.

Mr. Subianto will also take charge of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy, and will have to grapple with the U.S.-China rivalry. “Don’t let us continuously be pitted against each other by foreign nations. Don’t let us continuously be lied to…,” he said last week.

During an election rally, Mr. Subianto called for a status quo “rebalancing” where Indonesia stops looking to the West and instead learns from countries like China and India.

Indonesia’s ‘crossroads’ democracy

Indonesia is a country of cliches, one being that it is at a perennial crossroads. In a Simpsons episode, Homer Simpson is seen reading The Economist, with the cover headline reading, “Indonesia at a Crossroads”. An anxiety about if the country is moving away from its autocratic past and towards a freer future. As Mr. Subianto maintained a lead in polls, Andreas Harsono quipped: “The new cliche is that Indonesian is not at a crossroads anymore.” At his last rally, to a hysterical audience, Mr. Subianto sang the independence song Maju Tak Gentar: “Fear not, fear not / Attack, Attack/Go forward, go forward and win.”

Activists fear Mr. Subianto’s presidency may trigger a democratic backslide. Concerns have sprung up, in the way Mr. Widodo’s government pushed a controversial law to lower the constitutional age for contesting elections, allowing his son to be Mr. Subianto’s running mate. Surveys show that 70% of Indonesians think it has become harder to express their beliefs, but they also think that they live in a robust democracy. This is “the beauty of elite manipulation of democracy in Indonesia,” remarked Mr. Meirzner. Mr. Subianto’s victory is as much about his gemoy popularity, as it is about maintaining Mr. Widodo’s political influence. With this campaign Indonesia moves towards a dynastic political regime: Mr. Widodo is the first President in Indonesia’s history to have played a Kingmaker, engineering a successor who promises political control.

A

In matters of succession, Mr. Subianto is the certain heir to Mr. Widodo’s legacy, but an uncertain one to Indonesia’s democracy. It is unclear which persona will rule: the nationalist General, the blazing Islamist Prabowo, or the gemoy grandfather. For now, Prabowo Subianto’s song and dance has captured Indonesia’s democratic pulse. Prabowo Subianto is Indonesia’s president, at last.

Judges preside over a hearing on the Presidential election result dispute at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta, Indonesia, on April 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Four Indonesian Cabinet members testified on April 5 that no rules were violated in the distribution of government aid during the recent election campaign, despite claims by the two losing Presidential candidates that it was used for the benefit of the election winner.

Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto won the election with 58.6% of the votes, or more than 96 million ballots, more than twice the amount received by each of the two runner-ups in the three-way race, according to the General Election Commission.

The losing candidates — former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan and former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo — say the election was marred by irregularities and are asking the Constitutional Court to annul the results and order a revote in separate lawsuits.

They say Mr. Subianto’s victory was the result of widespread fraud and that outgoing President Joko Widodo and his administration bent laws and norms to support Mr. Subianto, with government social aid used as a tool to buy votes.

Indonesian Presidents are expected to remain neutral in elections to succeed them, but Mr. Subianto, a former rival of Mr. Widodo who twice lost elections to him before joining his government, ran as his successor. He even chose Mr. Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his Vice-Presidential running mate, even though Mr. Raka did not meet a Constitutional requirement that candidates be at least 40 years old.

Mr. Baswedan and Mr. Pranowo argue that Mr. Raka should have been disqualified and are asking the court to bar him from a revote. Before the election, Mr. Raka was granted a controversial exception to the minimum age requirement by the Constitutional Court, which was then led by Anwar Usman, Mr. Widodo’s brother-in-law. Mr. Usman was later forced to resign as Chief Justice for failing to recuse himself.

Hefty social aid from the government was disbursed in the middle of the campaign — far more than the amounts spent during the COVID-19 pandemic — and Mr. Widodo distributed funds in person in a number of provinces.

A panel of eight Constitutional Court judges summoned Coordinating Human Development and Culture Minister Muhadjir Effendy, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharini to obtain their dispositions, said Chief Justice Suhartoyo, who like many Indonesians uses a single name.

Mr. Effendy denied that the government aid provided from January to June 2024 favoured Mr. Subianto in the February Presidential election, and said it was dispersed to achieve a target of reducing extreme poverty.

Mr. Hartarto, who is also chair of the Golkar Party, part of the coalition supporting Mr. Subianto, said a decline in rice production caused by the El Niño phenomenon made the disbursement of social assistance important. He said the aid aimed to protect the poor and vulnerable from rising commodity prices due to El Niño and global supply chain disruptions.

“The government has to implement strategies to maintain the availability of food supplies and people’s purchasing power,” Mr. Hartarto said, adding that the programme was transparent and would continue to be implemented.

Widely respected Finance Minister Indrawati, a former managing director of the World Bank, said the aid was part of the government budget and had been approved by Parliament.

“Its realisation and payment pattern is no different compared to the previous six-year period,” Ms. Indrawati said. She said the enactment of the 2024 state budget was completed before the electoral commission announced the candidates in the Presidential race.

The case will be decided by eight justices instead of the full nine-member court because Mr. Usman, who is still on the court as an associate justice, is required to recuse himself.

Mr. Subianto himself went to the court twice to challenge the results of the elections he lost to Mr. Widodo, but the court rejected his claims as groundless both times. His refusal to accept the results of the 2019 Presidential election led to violence that left seven dead in Jakarta.

The hearing began on March 28 and the verdict, expected on April 22, cannot be appealed.

Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Failed Indonesian presidential candidate Anies Baswedan challenged Prabowo Subianto’s decisive victory at the Constitutional Court on March 21, alleging rules were unfairly changed to allow the outgoing leader’s son to run as his vice president.

Anies’ call for a new vote comes a day after Defence Minister Prabowo, 72, was confirmed as the next leader of the world’s third-biggest democracy, beating former Jakarta governor Anies and a third rival with 58.6 percent of the vote.

But his campaign was mired in allegations that outgoing leader Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, had interfered in a bid to establish a political dynasty, engineering rules changes that allowed his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka to run as Prabowo’s vice president.

“We asked for the disqualification of the vice presidential candidate… and we asked for a revote with that said VP candidate being replaced,” Anies’s legal chief Ari Yusuf Amir told AFP.

“We also asked the Constitutional Court to order the president to stop meddling in the next process of the election.”

An Anies campaign staffer told AFP on condition of anonymity that they would “provide the proof of intervention… and let the judges decide what to do with that.”

Earlier, Anies’ legal chief told reporters outside their campaign headquarters that they submitted an “election dispute petition” to the court online early Thursday morning.

Anies’s team has said the complain was aimed at improving future elections and bolstering Indonesia’s young democracy, which emerged from decades of autocratic rule in the late 1990s.

Jokowi was criticised after his brother-in-law, then-chief justice Anwar Usman, issued an October ruling lowering the age requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates that allowed 36-year-old Gibran to run with Prabowo.

The requirements were lowered to allow candidates under 40 years of age to run if they have been elected to a political position. Gibran is the mayor of Surakarta city in Java.

Anies — who got 24.9 percent of the vote — refused to concede after official results were announced Wednesday, condemning the winner’s route to victory.

“Leadership that was born out of a process tainted by cheating and violations will result in a regime that will produce policies that are full of unfairness, and we don’t want this to happen,” he said in a statement.

Prabowo was widely predicted to win the presidency on his third attempt after losing in 2014 and 2019.

His legal team was confident the result would not be successfully challenged because of his majority and wide margin of victory, local media reported.

Officials from his campaign team did not respond to an AFP request for comment.

He takes over in October after a transition period.

Chief Judge Anwar Usman, centre, presides over the hearing on a petition seeking to lower the minimum age of presidential and vice-presidential candidates at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta, Indonesia on October 16, 2023.
| Photo Credit: AP

Indonesia’s top court on October 16 ruled against lowering the minimum age of presidential and vice-presidential candidates as the country gears up for election in 2024.

The court’s decision is final and can’t be appealed.

In August, seven politicians — including from the Indonesian Solidarity Party chaired by the youngest son of current President Joko Widodo — filed a petition against the current age limit for candidates, asking it to be lowered to 35 instead of 40, arguing it was discriminatory.

The 7-to-2 decision by the nine-judge panel of the Constitutional Court rejected the arguments, saying it wasn’t the court’s role to change the age limit for candidates and that it was up to the Parliament to set such laws.

Two judges argued that while the court should uphold the age limit as is, it could add a special exception to those who “served or been elected as regional leaders”.

Mr. Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, currently serves as Mayor of Surakarta and has not announced that he would run, but politicians publicly backing former general Prabowo Subianto running for the 2024 presidential election have called for Gibran to become his running mate. Mr. Gibran is currently 36.

Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, is set to vote in simultaneous legislative and presidential elections in February 2024.

High-speed train is parked during the opening ceremony for launching Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway at Halim station in Jakarta, Indonesia, on October 2, 2023. Indonesian President Joko Widodo launched Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway that will start its commercial operations on Monday, a key project under China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative that will cut travel time between two cities from the current three hours to about 40 minutes.
| Photo Credit: AP

Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway on October 2 as it was set to begin commercial operations, a key project under China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative that will drastically reduce the travel time between two key cities.

The project has been beset with delays and increasing costs, and some observers doubt its commercial benefits. But Widodo has championed the 142-kilometer (88-mile) railway, which was issued its official operating license from the Transportation Ministry on Sunday.

The $7.3 billion project, largely funded by China, was constructed by PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia-China, known as PT KCIC, a joint venture between an Indonesian consortium of four state-owned companies and China Railway International Co. Ltd.

The railway connects Jakarta with Bandung, the heavily populated capital of West Java province, and will cut travel time between the cities from the current three hours to about 40 minutes.

Its use of electrical energy is expected to reduce carbon emissions.

Mr. Widodo in his opening remarks officially named Indonesia’s first high-speed railway — the fastest in Southeast Asia, with speeds of up to 350 kph (217 mph) — as “Whoosh,” from “Waktu Hemat, Operasi Optimal, Sistem Handal,” which means “timesaving, optimal operation, reliable system” in Indonesian language.

“The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed train marks the modernization of our mass transportation, which is efficient and environmentally friendly,” Mr. Widodo said.

“Our courage to try new things gives us confidence and the opportunity to learn and will be very useful for the future, making our human resources more advanced and our nation more independent,” he added.

Mr. Widodo, along with other high-ranking officials, rode Whoosh from its first station, Halim in eastern Jakarta, to Bandung’s Padalarang station, one of the line’s four stations, located about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the central area of Bandung.

He took a 25-minute test ride on the train on Sept. 13 and told reporters that he felt comfortable sitting or walking inside the bullet train even at its top speeds.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang took a test ride early last month while visiting Jakarta for three days of talks with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations and other countries.

Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister for maritime and investment, said China Railway has agreed to transfer its technology to Indonesia so that in the future the country’s high-speed trains can be made domestically.

For two weeks leading up to the inauguration, PT KCIC has been running a free-of-charge public trial.

Indonesia broke ground on the project in 2016. The line was originally expected to begin operations in 2019, but was delayed by disputes over land acquisition, environmental issues and the COVID-19 pandemic. It was planned to cost 66.7 trillion rupiah ($4.3 billion), but the amount ballooned to 113 trillion rupiah ($7.3 billion).

The trains have been modified for Indonesia’s tropical climate and are equipped with a safety system that can respond to earthquakes, floods and other emergency conditions. The 209-meter (685-foot) train has a capacity of 601 passengers.

Ticket prices had not been finalized as of Monday, but PT KCIC estimated one-way prices per passenger would range from 250,000 rupiah ($16) for second class to 350,000 rupiah ($22.60) for VIP seats.

Passengers going to downtown Bandung need to take a feeder train from the Padalarang station that will add a further 20 minutes, with an estimated cost about 50,000 rupiah ($3.20).

The rail deal was signed in October 2015 after Indonesia selected China over Japan in fierce bidding. It was financed with a loan from the China Development Bank for 75% of the cost. The remaining 25% came from the consortium’s own funds.

The project is part of a planned 750-kilometer (466-mile) high-speed train line that would cut across four provinces on Indonesia’s main island of Java and end in the country’s second-largest city, Surabaya.

As a global economic giant, China is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia, a region home to more than 675 million people. Amid crackdowns by the United States and its allies, China is expanding trade with ASEAN countries and infrastructure projects are playing key roles.

A semi-high-speed railway — with speeds up to 160 kph (99 mph) — linking China with Laos was inaugurated in December 2021. The $6 billion infrastructure was financed mostly by China under the Belt and Road policy. The 1,035-kilometer (643-mile) route runs through Laos’ mountain ranges to connect the southeastern Chinese city of Kunming with Vientiane, the capital of Laos. There are plans for a high-speed train down through Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore.