Chandigarh:

The political landscape of Haryana dominated significantly by the Jat community has witnessed a drastic change in the last decade, ever since the BJP came to power in 2014, and continued its winning streak in 2024 as indicated by the results announced on Tuesday for the October 5 Assembly elections. 

The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and its breakaway faction Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which played the kingmaker in the 2019 assembly poll, have been decimated this time.

Jats, who constitute about 27 per cent of the electorate and once the traditional vote base of Haryana’s regional parties, seemed to have made a sway — a shift that proved detrimental for INLD and JJP. 

While the results came as a massive setback for Dushyant Chautala, the youngest scion Arjun Chautala, however, managed to defeat Independent candidate and sitting legislator Ranjit Singh — an outcome from which the party might hope that all is not lost yet.

Both patriarch-dominated regional parties lost their grip, concentrated largely in rural areas, with their top leaders Abhay Singh Chautala of the INLD and his nephew Dushyant Chautala of the JJP biting the dust.

They are from the legacy of former Deputy Prime Minister and the state’s tallest Jat leader, Chaudhary Devi Lal who, with his family ruled the state’s dusty and defection-ridden politics for decades.

Abhay Chautala was defeated from his stronghold Ellenabad by Congress nominee Bharat Singh Beniwal. JJP leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala faced a major defeat from the Jat-dominated Uchana Kalan constituency, finishing sixth. BJP’s Devender Attri defeated Congress’ Brijendra Singh from Uchana Kalan seat in Jind.

Outgoing legislator Abhay Chautala has won the Ellenabad seat four times since 2010 and his grandfather, Devi Lal, served as the deputy prime minister.

Interestingly, the JJP, which was at the helm with the outgoing BJP government led by Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar for four and a half years, has struggled to secure any seat or build a significant vote base across Haryana, marking a tough setback.

However, INLD’s youngest scion Arjun Chautala defeated Independent candidate and sitting legislator Ranjit Singh with 6,507 votes from Rania.

The INLD partnered with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), while its breakaway faction JJP, which had an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), promised to launch the Jannayak Fasal Suraksha Bima Yojana for the prosperity of farmers if the combine forms the government.

Eyeing the Dalit voters, who constitute 21 per cent of the state’s population, the JJP contested 70 seats, while the Azad Samaj Party fielded candidates in the remaining 20 seats.

Interestingly, the INLD stitched an alliance with the BSP to woo the Dalits with leaders of both parties agreeing to project Abhay Chautala as the Chief Minister’s face. As per the alliance, the INLD contested 53 seats, while the BSP fielded candidates on 37 seats.

At the launch of the JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance, both Dushyant Chautala and Chandra Shekhar, who are both 36 years old, had promised to fight for the rights and welfare of the farmers and to form a “government of the youth”.

Dushyant Chautala’s brother, Digvijaya Singh Chautala, faced defeat from Sirsa’s Dabwali constituency, while Sunaina Chautala of the INLD lost from Fatehabad.

After the feud within the INLD, five-time Chief Minister Om Parkash Chautala’s grandson Dushyant split the party vertically in 2018 and formed the JJP.

INLD’s breakaway faction, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, who in 2014 was the county’s youngest MP at the age of 26 and was the Deputy Chief Minister in the state government led by Manohar Lal Khattar, is in an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), while the INLD has tied up with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

During the campaigning, the INLD was banking on its performance from March 2000 to March 2005, the longest term of Om Prakash Chautala. After that, the party emerged as the principal opposition party in the 2014 polls with 19 legislators. In the outgoing Assembly, the party has a lone legislator, Abhay Chautala.

The BJP’s vote share in the October 2019 Assembly election was 36.49 per cent when the party could not cross the halfway mark in the 90-member Assembly and stitched a post-poll alliance with the JJP.

The Congress registered over 15 per cent rise in its vote share in 2024 in comparison to the 2019 parliamentary election vote share.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

New Delhi:

Three MLAs from Haryana – among them Jannayak Janata Party leader Devender Singh Babli – have joined the BJP, as the ruling party is out to bolster its ranks ahead of the upcoming state elections. All three are leaders from the Jat community, among which the BJP intends to expand its footprint after its bitter break-up with the JJP ahead of the Lok Sabha election.

Devender Singh Babli, who represented Tohana in the state assembly, was a minister in the government headed by former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar. He was the second JJP minister in the Khattar government – the other being JJP chief Dushyant Singh Chautala.

There is speculation that the BJP might reward him with a ticket in the polls.

There were reports that Mr Singh was initially keen on joining Congress, but the state Congress could not assure him that he would be fielded from Tohana. Several other leaders of the party have been eyeing the seat. 

Two other leaders, Sunil Sangwan, whose father Satpal Sangwan is a former Haryana minister, and Sanjay Kablana, have also joined the BJP.

All three joined the BJP in presence of its general secretary Arun Singh, former Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb and Haryana unit president Mohan Lal Badoli.

The BJP, Mr Singh said, is driven by the mindset of development and exuded confidence that the party will return to power for a third term. A pro-BJP mood prevails in Haryana, he added.

The defection of Devender Singh Babli has left Dushyant Chautala with just three of his 10 MLAs. That includes him and his mother, Naina Chautala.  The third is Amarjeet Singh Dhanda, the MLA from Julana.

Ram Niwas Surjakhera’s attempt to change camp got blocked after rape allegations were levelled against him.

Mr Chautala appeared unfazed by the defection and posted a short poem on X, formerly Twitter, which roughly translates as: 

First they said they would cross 400,
Now they are taking leaders on loan from the JJP,
Sitting in Delhi, they are waiting.
They can’t even find 90 candidates
Their leaders are hunting in the assembly
No victory in Karnal, defeat in Ladwa too,
Just let October 5 come this time,
After that they are out forever.

अब तक तो कहते थे वो 400 पार,
नेता लेने पड़ रहे हैं जेजेपी से उधार,
दिल्ली में बैठे कर रहे है इंतज़ार,
हो नहीं रहे इनके पूरे 90 उम्मीदवार,
विधानसभा ढूँढ रहे हैं इनके सरदार,
ना करनाल में जीत,लाडवा में भी हार,
बस आने दो 5 अक्तूबर इस बार,
उसके बाद ये हमेशा के लिए बाहर। pic.twitter.com/0jr8wOf56c

— Dushyant Chautala (@Dchautala) September 2, 2024

Haryana goes to polls on October 5. The counting of votes will take place on October 8.

New Delhi:

Politics ahead of the October 1 Haryana election is getting interesting. A five-cornered contest is shaping up this time. The BJP, after its break-up with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP (Jannayak Janta Party), plans to ally with smaller parties while the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are going solo. The INLD (Indian National Lok Dal) has allied with BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) and on August 27, JJP declared its partnership with Chandrashekhar Azad’s ASP-KR (Azad Samaj Party-Kanshi Ram).

As the BJP and Congress, the two major political forces in the state, get battle-ready, banking largely on the OBC (Other Backward Class) and Jat vote banks, the Scheduled Castes (SCs), who comprise around 20% of the state’s population (per the 2011 Census), could be the deciding factor in the polls this time.

With 10 years of anti-incumbency in play, Haryana may vote differently. When it comes to assembly elections, the local issues take priority.

Despite winning all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 national election, the BJP could win only 40 out of 90 seats in the assembly elections that year, falling short of the majority mark and polling only 36.5 per cent votes. The voters sent a mixed signal in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; BJP kept five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats with 46.1 per cent votes, while the Congress took the remaining five and got 43.7% votes. The BJP’s vote share declined by 12% from 58% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while Congress added 15.3% votes to its 28.4% votes in 2019. This trend reflects the prevailing mood in Haryana.

As a solution, the BJP is looking to drop half its sitting MLAs, including ministers, to fight anti-incumbency. The party may choose the grandchildren of four past chief ministers, including Haryana’s three Lals (Bhajan, Bansi, and Devi), along with the sons and daughters of senior leaders. The party is also planning to field sportspersons.

Why the importance?

The BJP is also keen to strike an alliance with small regional parties in Haryana. There are reports that the BJP may have seat arrangements with Gopal Kanda’s Haryana Lokhit Party and Venod Sharma’s Haryana Jan Chetna Party. Kanda is targeting five seats while Sharma is claiming the Ambala City and Kalka assembly seats.

The buzz also is that Jayant Chaudhury’s RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal) will contest in Haryana. With a base in western Uttar Pradesh’s Jat belt, the RLD may look at extending its support base among Jat voters of Haryana in association with the BJP. The BJP too wants to pull in Jat votes, which have drifted away over the past few years because of factors ranging from the farmers’ and wrestlers’ protests to its break-up with the JJP. The RLD is expected to contest two to four seats as part of its alliance with the BJP.

The Congress is backing the leadership of former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who has managed to consolidate the party in the state, much to the disappointment of his party rivals like Randeep Surjewala and Kumari Selja. The party is confident of doing well.

AAP will contest all 90 Haryana assembly seats independently, breaking from past alliances. Their main focus will be on border constituencies, promoting Arvind Kejriwal’s ‘5 guarantees’ such as free electricity, employment, education, healthcare and Rs 1,000 per month to every woman above 18. The party hasn’t yet announced its candidates.

AAP had fought the 2019 parliamentary election in alliance with the JJP and the 2024 general elections with the Congress as part of the opposition INDIA alliance.

In the 2019 Haryana election, AAP had fielded candidates in 46 seats. The party hopes to score this time, especially the constituencies neighbouring AAP-ruled Delhi and Punjab.

Battle for existence

In the last assembly elections, the BJP had formed a coalition government with the help of JJP, which had won 10 seats in its poll debut. JJP leader Dushyant Chautala became deputy chief minister. However, the alliance went sour just before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls over seat sharing. Dushyant Chautala has ruled out any truck with the BJP this time sensing public disenchantment over the farm law protests, the Agnipath scheme and wrestlers’ anger against the BJP government at the Centre and the state.

The JJP, in its new alliance, will contest 70 out of 90 seats, leaving 20 for the Azad Samaj Party. For JJP, it’s an existential battle, and the need to remain a potent force in Haryana politics. Since ending its alliance with the BJP earlier this year, the JJP has seen setbacks. Seven of its 10 MLAs have quit, with one joining the Congress. The three MLAs left in the party include Dushyant Chautala and his mother Naina Chautala.

The JJP-ASP alliance has its eye on the potentially formidable caste combination of the JJP’s Jat support base and the ASP’s expected Dalit backing.

The INLD, JJP’s parent party, has already aligned with Mayawati-led BSP. The alliance leaders have decided to project INLD leader and only MLA Abhay Chautala (Dushyant’s uncle) as its chief ministerial face.

In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the INLD had contested seven seats and had managed 1.84% of the total vote share, while the JJP contested on all 10 seats and got 0.87% of the votes across the state. The upcoming assembly polls are a litmus test for both parties, each led by members of former Deputy PM Devi Lal’s clan.

With an unpredictable electorate and watery alliances, the October 4 counting day promises to be a thriller.

Chandigarh:

In a big jolt to Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) a month ahead of the assembly elections in Haryana, four of their 10 MLAs have quit the party.

MLAs Ishwar Singh, Ramkaran Kala and Devendra Babli resigned from the primary membership and all responsibilities of the party today while Anoop Dhanak had quit yesterday. They are likely headed to the BJP and Congress, the two major parties that had won five seats each in the Lok Sabha elections held in June.

The JJP, led by the former deputy chief minister, had earlier sought the disqualification of two other MLAs – Ramniwas Surjakhera and Jogi Ram Sihag – for anti-party activities. They had campaigned in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.

Another MLA, Ramkumar Gauram from Narnaund, had been opposed to the party for some time.

This effectively means the party is left with just three loyalists in the state assembly, which includes Dushyant Chautala, his mother Naina Chautala, and Amarjit Dhanda.

Haryana is to set vote on October 1 to elect its 90-member assembly, the Election Commission announced yesterday. The votes will be counted on October 4.

Mr Dhanak, an MLA from Uklana in Hisar, was a minister in the BJP-JJP coalition government that fell with the resignation of ML Khattar earlier this year. He is likely to join the BJP.

Mr Babli, who represents Tohana in Fatehabad; Mr Singh, an MLA from Guhla Chikka in Kaithal district; and Mr Kala, who represents Shahbad in Kurukshetra, are likely to join the Congress.

While the sons of Mr Kala and Mr Singh had already joined the Congress, Mr Babli had campaigned for senior Haryana Congress leader Kumari Selja in the Lok Sabha elections.

New Delhi:

Dushyant Chautala — the prime mover behind the bid to pull down the Haryana government led by his former ally — the BJP, appears to have taken reports about his MLAs’ secret meeting with the BJP, with textbook equanimity. Switching parties is normal at election time, he told NDTV this evening. Asked about the possibility of an Operation Lotus by the BJP, which is in a tight corner after three Independent MLAs pulled support to the government, he said, “Then the people of Haryana will come to know”. Then, with a straight face, he added, “Who knows, even the BJP MLAs can switch sides”.

Sources have said that four of the nine MLAs from Mr Chautala’s JJP (Jannayak Janta Party) met the former BJP Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar this afternoon. AT the meeting, held in the Panipat house of state minister Mahipal Dhanda, the current political crisis was discussed.

The BJP had ended the alliance with Mr Chautala, a Deputy Chief Minister in the Manohar Lal Khattar government, in March, as it effected a change of guard in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha election. Nayab Singh Saini was brought in to replace Mr Khattar, and Mr Chautala, after a failed Lok Sabha seat sharing deal, was shown the door.

Earlier this week, after the Independents pulled off support to the government, Mr Chautala responded. He promptly declared that the government is now in minority and asked the Governor for a floor test. Appearing at a press conference with leaders of the Opposition Congress, he also said he was ready to provide the Grand Old Party with outside support should they wish to form a new government.

Today, asked about the JJP MLAs’ meeting with Mr Khattar, Mr Chautala told NDTV this is was “not the time to worry about who is meeting whom”. The fact remains that the government is in minority, he added.

While whip and expulsion were the standard means to deal with rebels, “this is the time of election,” he said. “People will switch parties. If someone has to switch parties we will come to know. Let it come out in public. Who knows, even the BJP MLAs can switch sides,” he said.

The Haryana Assembly, with 90 seats, currently has 88 members, which brings the majority mark down to 45. The BJP has 40 MLAs, including three Independent candidates, and is two short of majority. The Congress has 30 MLAs and three independent candidates supporting it. An undivided JJP would bring its numbers up to 43 MLAs.

This scenario leaves two MLAs unaligned-one from the Haryana Lokhit Party and the other from the INLD.

This evening, INLD MLA Abhay Singh Chautala wrote to the Governor, saying if an assembly session cannot be called, President’s Rule should immediately declared in the state.

Chandigarh:

The Jannayak Janta Party on Wednesday morning issued a three-line whip to its MLAs in the Haryana Assembly, ordering them to be absent from House proceedings for the day.

The MLAs were directed to miss a floor test meant to assess the majority status of the new Bharatiya Janata Party-led government. The whip has been seen by as illegal, as no party can stop participation in a democratic exercise; they can only direct votes on party lines.

Should the JJP MLAs – on paper there are 10, though there are reports that at least five will breakaway, form a new group, and join the BJP – follow the whip, it will bring down the majority mark in the 90-member House from 46 to 41, which is the BJP’s current strength. A lowered majority mark will ensure the BJP passes; although even without that it has the numbers thanks to support from independents.

Haryana witnessed a swift change of government over the past 48 hours, with senior BJP leader Manohar Lal Khattar and the entire cabinet, which included three from the JJP, quitting Tuesday.

READ | BJP’s Nayab Singh Saini Takes Oath As New Haryana Chief Minister

The party’s state boss, Nayab Singh Saini, was chosen to replace him and took his oath hours later, with four BJP MLAs (from the just-disbanded cabinet) by his side.

READ | Who Is Nayab Saini: 5 Facts On New Haryana Chief Minister

In line with the rules, the floor test was then ordered for 11 am the following day.

Ahead of this floor test, the BJP had claimed the support of 48 MLAs – its 41 plus the seven independent lawmakers. This is not including the five expected to join from the JJP.

The proximate cause of the break-up of Mr Khattar’s government was the failure of the BJP-JJP alliance, which was formed after the 2019 Assembly election, in which the former emerged as the single-largest party but fell six seats short of an outright majority. 

The party eventually formed the government with support from the JJP, which was given a few ministerial berths and party boss Dushyant Chautala was made Deputy Chief Minister. Mr Chautala maintained radio silence through most of yesterday, emerging only after the swearing-in to thank the people of Haryana.

READ | “Worked Day And Night”: Dushyant Chautala On BJP’s Haryana Revamp

The alliance reportedly broke this week due to failed seat-sharing talks for the 2024 Lok Sabha election; the JJP wanted two of the state’s 10 seats, but the BJP would only give one.

Sources, however, have told NDTV the BJP also had one eye on the apparent renaissance of eternal rivals Congress in the heartland state; last week MP Brijendra Singh quit the BJP – for “compelling political reasons” – joined the Congress after being denied a ticket for his seat. 

Sources said the party hopes that a split from the JJP will help break-up the Jat votes between the state party and the Congress, both of whom have influence over a community that accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the state population. 

The state is also home to a large community of farmers, who are unlikely to offer significant support to the BJP given tension over the MSP, or minimum support price, issue. Sources said the BJP is hoping, instead, to maximise votes from the remaining 80 per cent.

There were also rumours – which might now prove to be true – that Mr Khattar would be re-assigned to a Lok Sabha contest. The two-time former Chief Minister is likely to fight from the Kurukshetra seat that was held by Nayab Saini but will now become vacant.

Mr Khattar’s Lok Sabha bow fits with the BJP’s gameplan in recent elections of fielding big-name leaders for key seats to boost the winnability factor and create a buzz.

Also, Haryana has only 10 Lok Sabha seats and given the BJP’s ruthlessness in replacing sitting MPs to avoid the anti-incumbency bias, there may have been concern this could leave too many disgruntled senior leaders heading for the exit and strengthening rivals.

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New Delhi/Gurugram:
As BJP broke up with its Haryana ally Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) yesterday, Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced as the Chief Minister with Nayab Saini. A floor test, – which will most likely be a routine procedure – is scheduled for 11 am.

Here are the top 10 updates on this big story

New Delhi/Gurugram:

The BJP and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) – its alliance partner in Haryana – are headed for a split amid differences over seat-sharing talks ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Sources said that Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar will meet Governor Bandaru Dattatreya today to submit his resignation.

BJP will form the government with the support of Independent MLAs after dissolving the cabinet, they said.

“We have already extended our support to Chief Minister Manohar Lal-led government. We also discussed the strategy for the Lok Sabha elections. I got the impression that the process of breaking the alliance with JJP has already started,” Haryana Independent MLA Nayan Rawat told reporters after meeting Mr Khattar.

This, however, is not sure if it’s Mr Khattar who will take oath as the Chief Minister again. Party sources said that the veteran leader may contest the Lok Sabha elections from Karnal.

This comes a day after JJP leader Dushyant Chautala met the BJP president J P Nadda to discuss the seat-sharing among the two allies in the state.

In the last bid to save the alliance, Dushyant Chautala will also meet Home Minister Amit Shah today.

The BJP had won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state in the previous elections in 2019. The JJP had allied with the party after the assembly polls.

Chandigarh:

Outgoing Haryana BJP president OP Dhankar said on Friday that no decision has been taken yet on fighting next year’s elections together with current ally JJP, as both parties have remained non-committal on contesting elections jointly.

“When any decision is taken, you will be informed,” Mr Dhankar told reporters.

On being asked how many seats the BJP expects to win in the 2024 Assembly polls, he said, “We will form the government with full majority. When elections draw near, we will inform you about the number of seats too,” he said.

Mr Dhankar was interacting with reporters in Chandigarh shortly before the party high command appointed him the national secretary and brought in Nayab Singh Saini as the state unit chief.

Mr Dhankar was appointed Haryana BJP chief in July 2020 and completed his tenure in July this year.

The Ajay Singh Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) had extended support to the BJP in 2019 after it fell short of a majority in the Assembly polls.

However, in recent months, both the JJP and the BJP have said they are preparing to contest all the 10 Lok Sabha and 90 Assembly seats and have remained non-committal on fighting the elections jointly.

The BJP on Friday appointed Lok Sabha MP from Kurukshetra Nayab Singh Saini, belonging to other backward classes (OBCs), the state unit president in place of Mr Dhankar as the party prepares for the Lok Sabha elections next year to be followed by the Assembly polls.

Replying to another question that the JJP has also entered fray in neighbouring Rajasthan and was contesting the Assembly elections there on a few seats, Dhankar said every party has a right to expand.

When asked if the party has conducted any internal survey for the next year’s Assembly elections, Dhankar said surveys these days keep taking place both at the organisation and the government level.

However, he said the outcome of these surveys are not made public.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)