London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off-limits. But even in this dynamic city – and indeed in Washington too – it’s almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the US and China can coexist as global powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, the Reform Party leader in the UK, faced a storm for urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia over Ukraine, calling the war a ‘complete stalemate’. People accused him of “echoing Russian propaganda”.

In India, we often hear that we don’t cultivate a society where all ideas are welcome. But let’s hope that suggesting a new chapter of “Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai” (India-China brotherhood) isn’t seen as blasphemy. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We’re buying more Chinese goods now than ever. In 2023, our bilateral trade hit over $136 billion. Hopefully, even those who burnt Chinese products in Gujarat and Delhi following the border skirmishes are more open to the idea now.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Sure, it might sound crazy to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China. But, it’s not entirely out of the question.

Major Geopolitical Shifts

India’s rise to become a global power is unstoppable; even China knows that. Talking to Chinese academics and journalists, you get the sense that they’re open to establishing long-term ties based on mutual respect. They like India, they want more people-to-people interactions, and one of them even wondered recently why India does not try to cast its spell over the dragon through its soft power of Bollywood  

Both countries have the responsibility to lift millions of their combined 2.8 billion people out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, which is a huge task. There are challenges, but if India and China team up and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift, with far-reaching implications for global politics. 

Read | Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much

The US and its allies might be shocked and deeply concerned by a close India-China partnership. The West has benefited from the rivalry between the two countries as it aligns with their strategy of counterbalancing China’s rise. A partnership between these two Asian giants could undermine the West’s strategic interests in the region. Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, has often said that most of Asia would cheer if this were to happen.

So, can India and China find common ground despite tensions over their disputed border? Prof. Mahbubani believes that while the two may never be best friends, they can have a good working relationship. He even says the 21st century belongs to the CIA (China, India, and ASEAN) countries. With US power on the decline, these countries will drive the world’s economic growth.

A Rollercoaster Ride

The idea of India and China being close friends isn’t new. Historically, they’ve acted like quarrelsome neighbours who fight and make up repeatedly. They share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back over two millennia. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which started in India, found a significant following in China. These ancient ties laid a foundation of mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial era, both countries faced subjugation by Western powers, fostering a sense of shared struggle. 

After gaining independence from the British, India faced border issues with China, and they continue to strain their relationship. In the early 1950s, the relationship was marked by camaraderie, epitomised by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai“. However, this period of cooperation was short-lived. The border dispute escalated into a full-scale war in 1962, leaving a lasting scar on bilateral relations. The disputed borders, particularly in the Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh regions, remain contentious issues.

The rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under US pressure in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage.

Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi naturally leaned towards engaging with China. As Gujarat’s Chief Minister, he made four trips to the country to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he has visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. Both countries have emerged as major global economic powers, engaging in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Strategic Rivalry

Strategically, India and China view each other with suspicion. The latter’s close ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean have heightened India’s security concerns.

Conversely, India’s growing partnership with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) is viewed warily by China. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of the relationship. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border disputes remains elusive.

Mumbai’s Shanghai Dreams

Many youth in India might not know that not too long ago, India used to compare itself with Pakistan in all spheres. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra government launched a mega project to revamp Mumbai in 2004, based on the “Vision Mumbai” report by Bombay First, an organisation comprising some of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined strategies for transforming Mumbai into “another Shanghai”. While the project to transform Mumbai is still a “work in progress”, it marked the beginning of India’s comparisons with China. Today, China sees India as its great rival, at least in Asia.

Read | China Is Revamping Its Military, And India Must Not Take It Lightly

Projections show that the Indian economy will surpass Germany and Japan’s to become the world’s third-largest one by 2027. Currently, however, India’s economy is only 19% the size of China’s, even though it feeds nearly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 stood at $3.5 trillion, compared to China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income was $2,411, while China’s was $12,720. China’s exports last year exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.

Collaboration Possibilities

Since China opened its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty – a feat that hasn’t been matched by any regime in history. India has also succeeded in reducing poverty significantly. Both nations have many more millions to help. Collaborating in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, healthcare, cultural exchange, and geopolitical stability can benefit both countries and the world. Overcoming historical tensions and building trust through consistent dialogue will be crucial.

The intense rivalry between the US and China will continue, and India will remain under pressure from the US to stay a reliable partner in its effort to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the US and China can work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests are best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of US-China relations while advancing its own national objectives. 

India knows that neighbours with shared borders may fight at times, but they can still continue to believe in the ‘love thy neighbour’ dictum.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Dinesh Gunawardena. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena arrived at Beijing on March 25 for a six-day official visit during which he will hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on ways to further deepen bilateral ties.

“Mr. Gunawardena was received on his arrival by Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to India Sun Weidong,” Chinese official media reported.

This will be the first visit by a Sri Lankan leader to Beijing after Colombo put a moratorium on recurring visits by Chinese research ships to Hambantota port, reportedly due to India’s security concerns. Colombo’s move had drawn angry reactions from China.

Earlier this month, however, Sri Lanka said it would allow foreign offshore research ships for replenishments at its ports despite a one-year ban on such vessels.

Some of China’s infrastructure investments in Sri Lanka drew global concerns over Beijing’s debt diplomacy especially after China took over Hambantota port on a 99-year debt swap.

Mr. Gunawardena’s visit also comes days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka for the next phase that would enable it access to $337 million from the nearly $3 billion bailout approved in 2023 for the cash-strapped country.

In 2022, Sri Lanka announced a default on over $51 billion foreign loans, following which India pitched in with about $4 billion in assistance to enable the island nation to recover from a deep economic crisis.

According to Sri Lanka’s official data, China tops the list of its creditors with 43% followed by Japan with 23% and India with 15%.

The image of Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a big screen during the closing session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, held in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, in Beijing, on March 10, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

China’s national congress is wrapping up its annual session on March 11 with the usual show of near-unanimous support for plans designed to carry out ruling Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s vision for the nation.

This year’s weeklong event, replete with meetings carefully scripted to allow no surprises, has highlighted how China’s politics have become ever more calibrated to elevate Xi Jinping.

Monday’s [March 11] agenda is lacking the usual closing news conference by the premier, who in the past was responsible for economic affairs as the party’s No. 2 leader — the one time each year when journalists could directly question a top leader.

The annual news conferences have been held most years since 1988, and the decision to scrap the event emphasises Li Qiang’s relatively weak status. Past premiers have played a much larger role in leading key economic policies such as modernising state enterprises, coping with economic crises and leading housing reforms that transformed China into a nation of homeowners.

A key item due to be put for a ritual vote on Monday are revisions of the “Organic Law of the State Council,” China’s version of a Cabinet, that direct it to follow Mr. Xi’s vision.

“The Communist Party always called the shots but the party leaders who ran the State Council used to have a much freer hand in setting economic policy,” Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in an emailed comment.

“Xi has been astonishingly successful in consolidating his personal hold over the party, which has allowed him to become the key decisionmaker in all policy domains,” Mr. Thomas said.

In foreign policy, China appears to be sticking with Wang Yi as Foreign Minister who stepped back into the post last summer after his successor Qin Gang was abruptly dismissed without explanation after a half year on the job.

Analysts thought that the Communist Party might use the annual congress to appoint a new Foreign Minister and close the book on an unusual spate of political mishaps last year that also saw the firing of a new Defence Minister after a few months on the job.

The Organic Law of the State Council is being revised for the first time since it was adopted in 1982. The revision calls for the State Council, above all, to “uphold the leadership of the Communist Party of China.” It also adds the governor of China’s Central bank as a Ministerial post.

Echoing words seen in just about every proposal, law or speech made in China these days, it spells out that China’s highest governing officials must adhere to the party’s guiding ideology, which refers back to Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought and culminates in Mr. Xi’s philosophy on “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.” As Mr. Xi’s government champions innovation and self-reliance in technology as ways to build a modern, wealthy economy, it is leaning heavily on more overtly communist ideology that harkens back to past eras.

Mr. Xi has fortified the party’s role across the spectrum, from culture and education to corporate management and economic planning, a potentially risky strategy. The “benefits may be outweighed by the costs of stifling political discussion, disincentivising local innovation and more policy shifts,” Mr. Thomas said.

During this year’s congress, many provincial meetings were opened to the media for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, though they were carefully scripted with speeches and other prepared remarks and none of the spontaneity once glimpsed in real group discussions on the sidelines of the meetings in decades past.

“The contrast with polarised politics in the U.S. and robust debate in other democracies could not be more stark: China’s political rituals, void of any overt dissent, put unity of opinion above all.”

Marching orders endorsed by the congress include calls to ensure national security and social stability, at a time when job losses and underpayment of wages have sparked rising numbers of protests.

Along with following “the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought” and other party directives, developing “new quality productive forces” — a term coined by Mr. Xi last September — emerged as a new catchphrase at this year’s congress.

The term suggests prioritising building self-reliance in science and technology as China confronts trade sanctions and curbs on access to advanced know-how in computer chips and other areas the U.S. and other countries deem to be national security risks.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on November 1 he will raise the plight of a detained democracy blogger with Chinese leaders during a state visit to China.

Mr. Albanese said he had approved a draft letter to the sons of Yang Hengjun, who has been detained in China since 2019.

“We’re very sympathetic and understand the concerns that they would have for their father and for this Australian who has been detained now for a long period of time,” Mr. Albanese told reporters.

The sons have made public a letter to Mr. Albanese, dated October 28, that said there was a “narrow window of opportunity” before Mr. Albanese left for China to secure their father’s freedom.

“We ask that you make it clear that it is not possible to stabilise the bilateral relationship with a government that is holding an Australian citizen just a few kilometres south of where you will be hosted,” the brothers added, referring to Beijing.

They said they had just last week received the first letter Yang had been allowed to send from detention. Yang wrote: “I’m sick, I’m weak, I’m dying.” Yang, who once worked for China’s Ministry of State Security, is still awaiting a verdict from his closed-door trial on espionage charges in May 2021.

His sons are 24 and 31 years old. Family friend Feng Chongyi said the sons had not been publicly identified because they feared Chinese retaliation for their father’s activities. Feng said Mr. Albanese becoming the first Australian Prime Minister in seven years to visit China created an opportunity for Yang.

“It’s not the last chance, but it’s the best chance,” Feng said. “The visit symbolises the complete normalisation of relations between the two countries.” Mr. Albanese’s visit that begins on Saturday is a sign that bilateral relations have improved since his centre-left government was elected last year following nine years of conservative rule.

Mr. Albanese will meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing and attend the China International Import Expo in Shanghai during the three-day visit.

Mr. Albanese raised the plights of Yang and another detained Australian, journalist Cheng Lei, in his first meeting with Xi on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia a year ago. Cheng was deported last month in what many saw as Beijing clearing the way for Mr. Albanese’s visit.

Yang’s sons wrote that said they had been “inspired by the wonderful news” of Cheng’s release. They hoped Australian authorities could “achieve a second miracle by saving our father”. Asked about Cheng’s case, Mr. Albanese told reporters: “Every case is … different.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held wide-ranging talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on October 27.
| Photo Credit: AP

President Joe Biden has emphasised that the United States and China need to manage competition in the relationship responsibly and maintain open lines of communication as he met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ahead of a potential meeting with President Xi Jinping next month to reset bilateral ties.

President Biden met Wang at the White House on October 27 after the top Chinese diplomat held wide-ranging talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Wang’s visit is expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco in mid-November.

“The President emphasised that both the United States and China need to manage competition in the relationship responsibly and maintain open lines of communication. He underscored that the United States and China must work together to address global challenges,” the White House said in a readout of the meeting between Mr. Biden and Wang.

Mr. Sullivan and Wang had candid, constructive, and substantive discussions on key issues in the U.S.-China bilateral relationship, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and cross-Strait issues, among other topics, said the National Security Council in a readout of the meeting.

During the meeting, Mr. Sullivan discussed concerns over China’s dangerous and unlawful actions in the South China Sea. He raised the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Also read: View From India | Dispute in the South China Sea

China views Taiwan as a rebel province that must be reunified with the mainland, even by force. China has been conducting provocative military exercises around the self-ruled island.

“The two sides reaffirmed their desire to maintain this strategic channel of communication and to pursue additional high-level diplomacy, including working together towards a meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November,” said the readout.

State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said Mr. Blinken and Wang discussed a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues, including addressing areas of difference as well as exploring areas of cooperation.

“The Secretary reiterated that the United States will continue to stand up for our interests and values and those of our allies and partners,” he said.

The relationship between the world’s two largest economies began to deteriorate during the Trump administration. In 2018, former President Donald Trump signed an executive memorandum that would impose retaliatory tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese imports.

The U.S. and China have one of the world’s most important and complex bilateral relationships. Since 1949, the countries have experienced periods of both tension and cooperation over issues including trade, climate change, the South China Sea, Taiwan and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Biden administration has sought to re-establish normal diplomatic ties with China after an incredibly fraught period, most notably over the Chinese surveillance balloon incident in February.

Chinese President Xi Jinping. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Chinese leader Xi Jinping told Vietnam’s second-highest ranking official on October 20 that both countries must not forget the “original intention” of their traditional friendship.

China and the United States have been jostling for influence among Southeast Asian nations including Vietnam, which in September elevated its ties with Washington to a comprehensive strategic partnership, putting its one-time enemy on a par with Beijing and Moscow.

China has traditionally strong ties with Vietnam since diplomatic relations were established in 1950, despite a brief war in 1979. Beijing has backed Hanoi’s fight against former colonial ruler France, and later, against Saigon and the United States during the Vietnam War.

“Faced with the ever-changing international situation and arduous domestic development tasks, the two countries must not forget the original intention of their traditional friendship,” Xi told visiting Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong.

Mr. Thuong, Vietnam’s No.2 after its Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, held talks with Xi after attending Beijing’s Belt and Road Forum.

In early October, Reuters reported that Vietnamese and Chinese officials were preparing for a possible trip by Xi to Hanoi either at the end of October or in early November, citing people familiar with the plans.

“The two sides should adhere to the principle of joint consultation,” Xi told Mr. Thuong, adding that China and Vietnam should capitalise on their geographical proximity and industrial complementarity. There was no mention of any Xi visit in the Chinese state media readout of their meeting.

On Wednesday, Vietnamese state media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had accepted an invitation from Mr. Thuong to “soon” visit Vietnam, when the two men met on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum. In September, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Hanoi.

Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng. File
| Photo Credit: AP

China is sending Vice-President Han Zheng to the U.N. General Assembly’s annual high-level debate, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on September 15, suggesting that the country’s most senior diplomat Wang Yi will not attend.

This year’s gathering of world leaders at United Nations headquarters in New York starts on Monday with a sustainability summit. The weeklong general debate gets under way on Tuesday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has not attended the U.N. session in person for several years. He participated via video-conference during the first two years of the coronavirus pandemic.

Wang Yi attended last year and generally represented China at the U.N. Wang is the head of the foreign affairs committee of China’s Communist Party. He was not mentioned in the Ministry’s announcement.

Han is a past member of the Politburo Standing Committee, an elite group of leaders within the party. He retired from that position but assumed the position of Vice-President in March.

Han’s continued political career parallels the one of Wang Qishan, who played an influential role in the past several years in managing the tense U.S.-China relationship. Wang led the Communist Party’s disciplinary body and was a member of the Politburo Standing Committee. He retired at the end of 2017 but was brought back to serve as Vice-President in 2018.

The absence of Beijing’s top leader at the General Assembly may not be as conspicuous as Xi not attending the Group of 20 summit that took place in India earlier this month.

The British government announced in August that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would not attend the upcoming U.N. session. French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin also do not plan to be there.