Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will resume talks with the U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoys in Berlin on Monday (December 15, 2025), after the U.S. side said a “lot of progress” had been made on ending Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two.

Mr. Zelenskyy will again meet U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner after five hours of talks on Sunday (December 14, 2025), with other European leaders also holding meetings in Berlin throughout the day.

Ukraine said on Sunday (December 14, 2025) it was willing to drop its ambition to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance in exchange for Western security guarantees. But it was not immediately clear how far talks had progressed on that or other vital issues such as the future of Ukrainian territory, and how much the talks in Berlin could persuade Russia to agree to a ceasefire.

European diplomacy faces crucial week

The talks come at the start of a pivotal week for Europe, with an European Union (EU) summit on Thursday (December 11, 2025) set to decide whether it can underwrite a massive loan to Ukraine with frozen Russian Central Bank assets.

Europe has come under fire from the Trump administration in recent weeks over its policies on migration, security and regulating big tech. The EU and national governments have struggled to find a unified response to the U.S. criticism.

EU Foreign Ministers are meeting in Brussels on Monday (December 15, 2025) to agree on new sanctions against Russia, although the possibility of an 11th-hour hitch to agreeing an EU trade deal with Latin America threatens to further undermine their attempts to put on a show of strength.

“We will continue to do everything we can to ensure that Ukraine can achieve the best possible negotiating position and, in the event of failure, that it has all the necessary means to retaliate against this war of aggression,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told Deutschlandfunk radio.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has been closely involved in the Ukraine talks and was meeting Mr. Zelenskyy on Monday (December 15, 2025) morning ahead of the U.S. negotiations, sounded a tentatively hopeful note.

“I think we are at a critical moment in negotiations for peace,” Mr. Stubb told Dutch TV programme Buitenhof broadcast on Sunday (December 14, 2025).

“And at the same time, we’re probably closer to a peace agreement than we have been at any time during these four years,” said Mr. Stubb, who also met Mr. Kushner in Berlin on Sunday (December 14, 2025) evening.

Security guarantees among issues in focus

Mr. Stubb said the sides were working on three main documents — the framework of a 20-point peace plan, one relating to security guarantees for Ukraine, and a third on reconstruction of the country. “So we’re looking at the details together with the Americans, Europeans, and the Ukrainians,” he added.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and the leaders of Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden were among those expected in the German capital on Monday (December 15, 2025).

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine officially renounce its NATO ambitions and withdraw troops from the roughly 10% of the eastern Donbas region which Kyiv still controls. Moscow has also said that Ukraine must be a neutral country and that no NATO troops can be stationed there.

Russian sources earlier this year said Mr. Putin wants a “written” pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the U.S.-led NATO alliance eastwards — shorthand for formally ruling out membership to Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and other former Soviet republics.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday (December 15, 2025) that taking over Ukraine’s Donbas region will “not be Putin’s endgame”.

“We have to understand that if he gets Donbas, then the fortress is down and then they definitely move on to taking the whole of Ukraine,” Ms. Kallas, a former Estonian Prime Minister, told reporters. “If Ukraine goes, then other regions are also in danger.”

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is facing a tough test as Hamas is yet to return the bodies of Israelis taken captive on October 7, 2023, as agreed in the deal. Teams from Egypt and the International Committee of the Red Cross are working with the Israeli military and Hamas to locate the bodies in Gaza. The BBC reported that there are still 13 bodies in Gaza. Hamas is either unable to locate the bodies or is pretending not to know where they are, to prolong this phase. Once all the bodies are returned, Hamas would have to surrender arms in the following phase. And that is where the real test of the ceasefire lies.

Meanwhile, in the past week, Hamas killed an Israeli soldier in northern Gaza. In return, the Israeli army attacked Gaza, killing more than 100 people in a day. Qatar, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, defended Israel and accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire deal.

The pressure on Israel

Mr. Trump has deployed about 200 U.S. military personnel in Israel to support monitoring and coordination efforts. This is to show that he is serious about the ceasefire and to also demonstrate his distrust of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli army. American drones are monitoring Gaza. This kind of direct U.S. surveillance is unprecedented in the last two years of the war. The political and military pressure on Israel was visible last week when the top men of the Trump administration — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Vice President J.D. Vance — were all in Jerusalem. “We (the American establishment) are calling the shots here” was the message, which created domestic troubles for Mr. Netanyahu. He had to appear not pressured by Mr. Trump and reassure Israelis that Israel remains a sovereign state and not a ‘client state’ of America. The hardliners in the Israeli government dislike Mr. Trump’s 20-Point Gaza Plan, but they could not reject it under threat of losing American support. Mr. Trump’s statement that “Israel will lose all the support from the U.S. if it annexes the West Bank” was another blow to the right-wing settler movement’s ambitions.

Less leverage on Hamas

Whether they like them or hate them, Israeli leaders, including Mr. Netanyahu, are not in a position to oppose Mr. Trump’s ideas about how to conclude the remaining war in Gaza. An International Stabilization Force for Gaza is being planned, which will further take over control from the Israeli army. Yet Mr. Trump will have far less leverage on Hamas to keep it bound to the ceasefire. Hamas has stood up to his threats since January 2025 and has not released the hostages without a major concession from Israel. Now that it has extracted political advantage, it will act more assertively and resist disarmament. Qatar and Turkey coerced Hamas into the deal because both wish to please Mr. Trump while seeking influence in Gaza’s reconstruction. How long Hamas will remain obliged to them is a critical question in the coming weeks.

A curious paradox

What is emerging, therefore, is a curious paradox: Mr. Trump seems in control of Israel, but far less so of Hamas. The Israeli government, though militarily superior, is politically cornered — forced to follow Washington’s script to retain its strategic cover. Hamas, though militarily weaker, is ideologically freer and less dependent. Mr. Trump’s style of muscular diplomacy, rooted in threats and transactionalism, may bring temporary calm, but it risks breeding long-term resentment in the region.

For Mr. Netanyahu, this moment is both humiliating and useful. It allows him to outsource the burden of peace to Mr. Trump while deflecting domestic anger over the war’s failures. Yet it also exposes how Israel’s sovereignty is tethered to American politics — a vulnerability that will deepen as U.S. elections draw nearer. In contrast, Hamas and its backers will exploit the optics of Israeli submission to foreign dictates.

Ultimately, Mr. Trump’s deal diplomacy may succeed in imposing a pause, but not peace. The asymmetry of power between Israel and Hamas cannot be resolved by American command alone. Stability in Gaza will demand something that Mr. Trump’s world view rarely accommodates — restraint, reconciliation, and regional ownership. And while Mr. Trump enjoys the image of a dealmaker, he might soon discover that in West Asia, even the best “deals” unravel once the cameras are gone.

Khinvraj Jangid, Professor and Director, Centre for Israel Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat