Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is leveraging her popularity to help her party win Sunday’s (February 8, 2026) snap election as she pushes her right-wing agenda to boost her country’s economy and military capabilities in the face of growing tensions with China and an unpredictable Washington.

The ultraconservative Ms. Takaichi, who took office as Japan’s first female leader in October, has since enjoyed high ratings and support as her style and “work, work, work” mantra resonates with younger fans.

Latest polls indicate a landslide win in the lower house for Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party. The opposition, despite the formation of a new centrist alliance and the rising far-right, remains too splintered to be a real challenger.

Ms. Takaichi’s relatively safe bet is that her LDP party would, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party, or JIP, secure a majority in the 465-seat lower house, the more powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament.

Simple majority likely

Still, the latest surveys by major Japanese newspapers show there is a possibility Ms. Takaichi’s party could win a simple majority on its own, while her coalition could win as many as 300 seats — a big jump from a thin majority it held since a 2024 election loss.

The coalition lacks a majority in the other chamber, the upper house, which leaves it dependent on cooperation from the opposition to pass legislation, a risk to stability.

Ms. Takaichi said Sunday’s election is about deciding if she should stay on as Japanese leader and tackle her “nation-splitting policies.”

If the LDP fails to win a majority, “I will step down,” she said.

A big win by Ms. Takaichi’s coalition with its right-wing new partner JIP could mean a significant shift in Japan’s security, immigration and other policies further to the right as far-right populists gain ground, such as the anti-globalist, surging nationalist party Sanseito.

Opposition centrist alliance

The Buddhist-backed dovish Komeito party, which had split from the LDP over Ms. Takaichi’s political views and lax anti-corruption measures, has formed a centrist alliance with the liberal-leaning main opposition — the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — promising policies that include a “realistic” security, a nuclear weapons-free world and diversity.

WATCH: Handbags sold out, pens going viral: Takaichi turns politics into pop culture

Komeito’s ability to turn out multimillion votes from the Soka Gakkai sect could present a minor setback to the LDP, but surveys for the centrist alliance are not promising.

Left-leaning parties are increasingly losing ground as younger voters see their war-renouncing and anti-nuclear policies as unrealistic, and their further decline is inevitable, said Izuru Makihara, a University of Tokyo professor and expert in Japanese politics.

Ms. Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defence policies by December to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities, lifting the ban on lethal weapons exports and moving further away from the country’s postwar pacifist principles.

She has been pushing for tougher policies on foreigners, anti-espionage and other measures that resonates with a far-right audience but ones that experts say could undermine civil rights.

Ms. Takaichi needs to find ways to increase defence spending in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on Japan to loosen its purse strings.

In her campaign speeches, Ms. Takaichi stayed away from contentious issues and focused on the economy, tougher immigration and measures on foreigners, including tougher requirements for foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.

Chiharu Sasaki, a resident of Tokyo, said that while it’s good to have a female leader, she has to see what Ms. Takaichi will do.

“There is an image that Ms. Takaichi is someone who gets things done, but she hasn’t really proved it yet … so I’m still a bit cautious,” Sasaki said.

Tensions with China

Japan has been facing escalating tensions with China after Ms .Takaichi suggested Japan could get involved in the case of Chinese military action against Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own. Her comment, deviating from other Japanese leaders’ strategic ambiguity in the past, angered China. Beijing has since stepped up economic and diplomatic retribution.

The prolonged tensions and economic impact from China’s trade and diplomatic reprisals have raised concerns, prompting Ms. Takaichi to step back from her right-wing rhetoric.

Mr. Trump wants Japan to spend more on weapons as U.S.-China rivalry continues in the region.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump gave a rare endorsement for Ms. Takaichi on X, announcing his invitation for her to visit the White House on March 19 and praising her as “a strong, powerful, and wise leader.”

“She will not let the people of Japan down!” Mr. Trump said.

Record snowfall in northern Japan over the last few weeks, which blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide, could hinder voting or delay vote counting in that part of the country.

Ms. Takaichi’s party is also reeling from political funds scandals and its deep-rooted ties to the Unification Church, which surfaced during the investigation of the 2022 assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Opposition leaders demand that Ms. Takaichi clarify allegations in newly surfaced documents that link her and her party to the controversial church, which has faced hundreds of lawsuits in Japan from families who say that it manipulated members into draining their savings to make donations.

Also in the mix ahead of the vote on Sunday are uncertainties as to just how Ms. Takaichi’s popularity among younger generations, traditionally known for low turnout at the polls, could translate into party votes

Published – February 07, 2026 02:35 pm IST

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba casts his vote in the first round of a parliamentary vote to nominate a prime minister following the October 27 general election, during a special session of parliament in Tokyo on November 11, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Japan’s parliament re-elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Monday (November 11, 2024) after his governing coalition suffered the worst election loss in more than a decade.

Mr. Ishiba’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner Komeito together lost their majority in the 465-seat Lower House, the more powerful of Japan’s two-house parliament, in the October 27 election due to continued voter outrage over financial misconduct by his party and its lukewarm response.

A special parliamentary session convened Monday to pick a new leader in a vote required within 30 days of a general election. In the past, these votes did not attract as much attention because an LDP leader was virtually assured to be prime minister. Mr. Ishiba beat top opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda 221-160 in the first runoff in 30 years.

Most of his previous Cabinet members will be reappointed, but Mr. Ishiba will have to replace three who lost their seats or were affected by the election results.

Since the election loss, Mr. Ishiba has refused to step down, saying he is willing to cooperate with additional coalition partners to boost stability and help him pursue his party’s policies. Mr. Noda, head of the centrist opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has sought to form an opposition coalition — but so far unsuccessfully.

Mr. Ishiba will struggle in the coming months as he must gain consent from the opposition on policies including the budget and other legislation.

He is eyeing a rising smaller, conservative opposition, the Democratic Party for the People, whose seats quadrupled to 28 under its popular leader Yuichiro Tamaki.

A Harvard-educated former Finance Ministry bureaucrat, Mr. Tamaki has proposed raising the basic tax-free income allowance and increasing take-home wages, ideas that attracted low-income earners and younger voters in the election. He only wants to cooperate with Ishiba’s party on policy — not as part of a coalition — since he wants to use his leverage to increase his party’s standing ahead of the next election.

Mr. Tamaki was recently stung by a magazine article exposing an extramarital affair, which he admitted to on Monday, adding to political uncertainty.

Mr. Ishiba’s government is preparing for his trip later this month to ASEAN and Group of 20 summits, as well as a possible meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on his way home.