The largely peaceful conclusion of the three-phase assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir can be seen, in many ways, as a watershed event in the history of the region, regardless of whether it gives a clear mandate to a party, a pre-poll alliance, or results in a hung assembly.

Let’s explore why these elections should be considered a reference point for analysing the evolving democratic process and the aspirations of the people in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
First, the assembly polls, held after ten years, are the first elections since the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A and the first following the delimitation of assembly segments, which was completed in 2022. This is also the first assembly poll since Independence in J&K that has reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, thereby giving a voice to individuals from socially marginalised communities.

No Boycott, No Strikes

More notably, this is the first election in several decades that has been concluded without a boycott call, hartals, or any poll-related violence. And for the first time in 77 years, Hindu refugees from Pakistan, including West Pakistan Refugees (WPR), Valmikis and Gorkhas, voted in the election.

There has been a realisation among all stakeholders that if one aspires to make their voice heard, the only way is to become part of the democratic process. The banned Jamaat-e-Islami fielding its candidates as independents is a testament to this.

Second, if one had listened to the voices of most political parties before August 5, 2019, they would have heard high-pitched rhetoric claiming that the abrogation of the “temporary” Article 370 was the BJP’s pipedream and that it would never be possible for any regime at the Centre-least of all the Modi government-to remove the ‘Special Status’ granted to Jammu and Kashmir under India’s constitutional structure. But on August 5, this rhetoric was put to rest. 

A New Way Of Working

Interestingly, something that was claimed to be synonymous with Kashmir, as well as Kashmiri pride and identity, was not a major pre-poll narrative. While the National Conference, in its manifesto, promised to fight politically for the restoration of Article 370 and the resumption of dialogue with Pakistan, the PDP also spoke about resolving the Kashmir issue and resuming dialogue with Pakistan. However, as the election campaign progressed, it became clear that this was not an issue that could emotionally sway the voters.

Third, the demand for the grant of statehood has emerged as a major campaign issue for the NC-Congress combine, the PDP, and others. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was bifurcated into two Union Territories in August 2019: Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. The Centre has subsequently vested several critical executive powers in the Lieutenant Governor. The elected chief minister will now have truncated powers, a position somewhat similar to that of the chief ministers of Delhi and Puducherry. For Jammu & Kashmir leaders, this will be a new experience.

Lessons From The DDC Elections

Fourth, the Panchayat elections of 2014 and the District Development Council (DDC) elections of 2020 introduced a new aspirational political leadership at the grassroots level, which was not necessarily aligned with the three dominant parties: the NC, PDP, and Congress in the Kashmir Valley. Since the Panchayat polls, which were held without party symbols, it has been difficult to discern which party gained or lost on the ground. However, the DDC polls are an effective indicator, as parties contested with their election symbols.

The DDC elections were held a year after the annulment of Article 370 made an improbable scenario possible: arch-rivals NC and PDP came together, along with five other smaller parties, to form the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), popularly known as the Gupkar Alliance. However, the results were surprising. The Gupkar alliance, which was expected to sweep the polls, managed to win only 110 seats out of the total 278. The BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 75 seats, while Independents secured 50. This year’s parliamentary elections shocked former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, both of whom lost.

A Slew Of New Names

In the current assembly elections, a large number of new leaders are trying their luck as independents and candidates from smaller parties. While the outcome cannot be predicted now, their presence has made the electoral process more interesting than ever.

Fifth, the National Conference and Congress, which were considered clear favourites when the election schedule was announced, have somewhat lost that initial momentum amidst the heat and dust of electioneering, at least according to ground reports. The PDP is no longer considered the force it once was. The BJP seems to have gained ground in the Jammu region compared to what was anticipated about a month ago.

The results will be known on October 8, but one cannot rule out a realignment of political parties and groups in the aftermath of the results.

(Sanjay Singh is Consulting Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Ramgarh:

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Thursday asked Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, whether he supports the National Conference’s demand to bring back Article 370 and Article 35 A and separate flag for Jammu and Kashmir.

Addressing a gathering in Ramgarh Assembly Constituency of Jammu and Kahmir, CM Yogi said, “I want to ask Congress leader Rahul Gandhi whether he supports the National Conference’s decision to have a separate flag for Jammu and Kashmir? Does Rahul Gandhi support the National Conference’s demand to bring back Article 370 and 35A and push Jammu and Kashmir into an era of unrest and terrorism?”

CM Yogi added, “Does the Congress support promoting separatism again by talking to Pakistan at the cost of the youth of Kashmir? …”

कांग्रेस के नेता श्री राहुल गांधी से कुछ प्रश्न… pic.twitter.com/sbJfWqXrSM

— Yogi Adityanath (@myogiadityanath) September 26, 2024

Meanwhile, Union Home Minister Amit Shah hit back at Rahul Gandhi, reminding him that Congress imposed president’s rule most number of times in Jammu and Kashmir.

“Rahul Gandhi just gave a statement that outsiders will rule in Jammu and Kashmir. He was referring to our LG Sahab (Manoj Sinha). Rahul baba, those who write your speeches doesnot tell you the truth. If there is a party that has imposed Presidential rule most number of times in Jammu and Kashmir, it is the Congress,” Amit Shah said while addressing a public meeting in Kathua which went to polls in the first phase of polling held on September 18.

The Home Minister cited the polling turnout, saying that it was the end of terrorism in the region that had led to the increased turnout.

“Due to the end of terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a record 55 percent voting. Farooq Sahib, those days are over when one could go to the Lok Sabha by getting 8 thousand votes. Now democracy has become strong in Jammu and Kashmir,” Amit Shah said.

The Home Minister also said that it was PM Modi’s effort that had put the decision making power in the hands of the people.

“You have Panch-Sarpanch in your villages now. Over 40,000 people now celebrate democracy in Jammu and Kashmir. For decades, the 3 dynasties of NC, Congress and PDP promoted nepotism. Now, due to Modi ji’s efforts, the youth of J&K takes part in the decision-making for improving conditions in the state,” he said.

Amit Shah added, “If BJP candidates Jeevan Lal and Dilip Singh win, then there will be celebrations across the country. But if Congress and NC (National Conference) candidates win, then celebrations will be held in Pakistan. Do you wish Pakistan to celebrate?…”

The BJP leader vowed that they will not allow Rahul Gandhi to end reservation (in case Congress is voted to power).

“Rahul baba has said that they will end reservation when they come to power. Rahul Baba, no matter what your intention is, we will not let you end reservation,” Amit Shah added.

The second phase of J-K assembly polls was held on September 25. The third and final phase of voting will be held on October 1 while the counting of votes will take place on October 8. Assembly elections are being held in the Union Territory nearly after a gap of ten years and are the first once since the abrogation of Article 370.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Srinagar:

Aiming to win over the people of Jammu and Kashmir ahead of the Assembly elections, which begin in less than two weeks, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi opted to mix a political pitch with an emotional one while kicking off his party’s campaign in the Union Territory on Wednesday. 

As Jammu and Kashmir sees its first election in nearly 10 years as well as its first as a Union Territory after it was stripped of its special status under Article 370 in 2019, Mr Gandhi made the restoration of statehood the central plank of his addresses on Wednesday while also reminding people of the ties of blood he and his family share with them, going as far back as his great-grandfather and India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. 

Mr Gandhi, who is the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, also took a jibe at the J&K Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha – and the BJP-led government at the Centre through him – by calling him a ‘raja‘ (king). 

The BJP, which will see its campaign begin on Friday with rallies being addressed by Home Minister Amit Shah, hit back and accused the Congress-National Conference alliance in the Union Territory of being supported by militants. 

‘Kings Removed’

Addressing a rally for the Congress candidate from Dooru, Ghulam Ahmad Mir, with National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah, Mr Gandhi cited several decisions that had to be rolled back by the Centre and cited that as proof of the opposition INDIA alliance’s growing strength in the country. This strength, he told his audience, would ensure that Jammu and Kashmir would be granted statehood if the people voted the INDIA alliance into power in the Union Territory.

“In 1947, we removed the kings and formed a democratic government. We gave the country a Constitution. But a raja is ruling Jammu and Kashmir today. His name is LG (lieutenant governor), but he is a raja. Your money is being stolen and given to people from outside. Be that in the form of contracts or anything else… The first thing that needs to be done is restoring statehood to J&K because it wasn’t just your state that was snatched… Your rights, your wealth, all of it is being snatched,” Mr Gandhi said.

Personal Relationship

Addressing another rally in Anantnag, he spoke about the personal ties he has with the people of the state.

“You know that you and I have a blood relation. This is not a political relationship. Be it Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi or Jawaharlal Nehru, it is an old relationship. Whatever you want from me, my doors are always open for you. I want to serve you in Parliament. I will raise your issues, your pain and your sorrow. The country needs to know that this is the first time in India’s history that a state has become a Union Territory,” he said. 

Mr Gandhi also claimed that the BJP has used the Kashmiri Pandit issue for political reasons and has not helped the community. Using his oft-repeated ‘mohabbat ki dukaan‘ (shop of love) phrase, he asserted that the Congress will stand with the community and work for its welfare if the party forms a government in Jammu and Kashmir.    

‘Difficult Time’

The National Conference is the senior partner of the alliance in the UT, contesting 51 of 90 Assembly seats against the Congress’ 32 – with friendly fights in five constituencies – and party chief Farooq Abdullah said the coalition will be successful in the elections. 

“We are raising our voice. This is a slap on the face of people who called us Pakistanis, Khalistanis and whatnot. I hope that the people of India will understand that we want Jammu and Kashmir and its people to prosper after the difficult time they have been through. This is the first time a state has become a Union Territory. We need to change this, we want statehood, and that’s what we are working towards,” he said.

BJP Hits Back

Scoffing at the remarks by Mr Gandhi and Mr Abdullah, senior BJP leader Ram Madhav said the parties are being supported by militants. The BJP has consistently maintained that J&K has progressed after the removal of Article 370 and Mr Madhav claimed that the Congress, National Conference and Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) want to push the Union Territory off the path of development. 

“I want to remind the people that the manifestoes released by the National Conference, PDP and others want to take J&K back to the old days and old problems. They are openly taking the support of militants to fight the elections. I am seeing that former militants are supporting, and campaigning for, National Conference and PDP candidates. We have to defeat such parties. Jammu and Kashmir will see a government being formed under the leadership of the BJP,” he said. 

Jammu and Kashmir will vote in three phases between September 18 and October 1. Counting will take place on October 8. 

Anantnag, Kashmir:

Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi will address two election rallies in Jammu and Kashmir on September 4 to campaign for the candidates of the NC-Congress alliance, a senior Congress leader said on Saturday.

AICC general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir told PTI Videos here that it was the desire of the candidates of the alliance and the people of J&K in general to have Gandhi campaign in the Union territory.

“Rahulji will visit J&K on September 4 and will address election campaign rallies in Kashmir as well as Jammu for the alliance candidates,” he added.

Mir, who is contesting the assembly elections from Dooru in the south Kashmir district here, said Gandhi will address an election rally at the Dooru stadium.

He said Gandhi would address another rally likely in the Sangaldan area of Jammu.

“We are happy that he (Gandhi) accepted our invitation. This programme is for the first phase only. He might visit J&K again for the other phases,” Mir said.

The AICC general secretary said the Congress has lined up over 40-star campaigners, including party president Mallikarjun Kharge and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Srinagar:

The BJP today released a list of 82 candidates for the three-phase election to 90 Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. This is the first Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir after the erstwhile state lost its special status in 2019 and was bifurcated into two Union Territories. After the last Assembly election in 2014, BJP and PDP had tied up to form the government.

The list was released this morning after the BJP’s Central Election Committee finalised the party’s poll picks for the upcoming election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP chief JP Nadda were at the key meeting in Delhi yesterday.

In the 2014 election, the BJP had put up a stellar show by winning 25 seats. The PDP had emerged as the single largest party with 28 wins. The incumbent National Conference won 15 seats and the Congress bagged 12. Following the election, the BJP and the PDP forged a surprise alliance government, led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and then by Mehbooba Mufti after the former’s death in 2016.

This time, Jammu and Kashmir may be headed for a tripartite contest between the BJP, the PDP and the National Conference-Congress alliance. The Congress and National Conference, meanwhile, are yet to iron out differences in seat-sharing. Top Congress leaders KC Venugopal and Salman Khurshid have been rushed to Srinagar to clear the roadblocks in the negotiations between National Conference and the local Congress leadership.

Earlier, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi met National Conference president Farooq Abdullah and vice-president Omar Abdullah and announced their alliance.

Scoffing at the tie-up, BJP general secretary Tarun Chugh, who is in charge of the party’s Jammu and Kashmir campaign, said the Congress-National Conference alliance will collapse like a house of cards and will face a humiliating defeat.

In some of the key Kashmir seats, the BJP’s candidates are Er Syed Showkat Gayoor Andrabi (Pampre), Arshid Bhat (Rajpora), Javed Ahmad Qadri (Shopian) and Mohd Rafiq Wani (Anantnag West). Others include Syed Wazahat from Anantnag, Sofi Yousuf from Srigufwara-Bijbehara, Veer Saraf from Shangus-Anantnag East and Tariq Keen from Inderwal.

Srinagar:

The National Conference, the Peoples Democratic Party, the Congress, and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party have called for simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which is under President’s Rule and has not had a state poll for six years now.

This comes amid reports the Election Commission of India – a poll panel team began its two-day visit Monday to review prep work before announcing dates – is considering such a move.

The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, and that of Ladakh, will hold a general election for its six Lok Sabha seats in April/May and is expected to hold Assembly polls – the first step in restoration of statehood – by September 30, as ordered by the Supreme Court.

READ | In Historic J&K Ruling, Supreme Court Sets Election Deadline

Senior NC leader Nasir Sogami and former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad – part of the ‘One Nation, One Election’ commission set up by the government to explore that possibility – have spoken out, with the latter claiming “people are more concerned about Assembly polls”.

“I am in favour of simultaneous elections in J&K .I want elections by midnight. The people of J&K are more concerned about assembly elections than parliament elections,” Mr Azad said.

Mr Azad is likely to contest the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary seat, which is currently held by Hasnain Masoodi of the National Conference. The seat has traditionally flipped between the Peoples Democratic Party of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti and the NC.

“I’m not ruling out contesting from Anantnag-Rajouri parliament constituency. Lots of people are asking me to contest. Demand of my being in Parliament is more,” he told NDTV.

Mr Sogami – who spoke to NDTV after the NC met a team from the Election Commission of India – said the NC had also demanded simultaneous elections in the union territory.

“This (simultaneous polls) is also in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream of ‘One Nation, One Election’,” he said, adding the NC had also said state polls are long overdue.

The National Conference also demanded a level playing field for both polls.

On Monday the poll panel team, led by Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, met representatives from political parties. The ECI has already met Union Home Ministry officials.

The centre has already sanctioned the deployment of 600 paramilitary companies to ensure the safe conduct of elections in J&K; this is in addition to sizeable existing security set-ups.

A BJP delegation also met the poll panel team, and said the party is ready for Assembly polls. However, the party left announcement of dates to the discretion of the Election Commission.

NDTV is now available on WhatsApp channels. Click on the link to get all the latest updates from NDTV on your chat.