Iran’s Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

India can play an important role in stopping Israel’s operations in Gaza, said Iran’s Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi, adding that Iran would also “welcome” any mediatory role by India to bring peace and stability to the region.

Mr. Elahi said Iran has kept India fully briefed about last week’s air attack on Israel, and said its main objectives, to “deter Israel” and demonstrate the “possible costs of transgressing red lines”, had been achieved. The U.S. White House has described Iran’s attack, sending about 350 drones and missiles on Israeli targets on April 13, a “spectacular and embarrassing failure”, as more than 90% were intercepted by the US, Israel and Jordan.

“This is what Israel and Western countries say. But the reality is something else, and the Israeli regime understood what Iran’s missile capability is. Every operation has its own objective. The main objective of this operation was to deter Israel and to warn them of the dangerous consequences of their reckless deeds,” Mr. Elahi told The Hindu in a written response to a question about the US statement. He said the operations had “proven” that all the “vital military bases” of the Israeli Defence Forces would be “easily accessible” if Iran decided to use “more developed weapons”.

Iran has said its attacks were a “legitimate” response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian Embassy building in Damascus on April 1 that killed seven military advisors including a senior Iranian general, which Mr. Elahi said was a violation of the Vienna Convention and other conventions on the protection for diplomats. The Ministry of External Affairs’ response to both Israel’s attack and Iran’s counterattack has been seen as neutral, with no direct condemnation of either country but expressing serious concerns about the escalation of tensions in the region.

“I cannot speak for the Indian government. Each country has its own position in such situations. But what is certain is that attacking diplomatic places is prohibited according to international conventions,” Mr. Elahi said. He said India should condemn Israeli operations in Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas, that left more than 1,200 Israelis dead, and dozens taken hostage. More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli operations since then, mostly women and children.

“We believe that India can play a very important role in stopping” Israel operations in Gaza, Mr. Elahi said, adding that “the Indian government can play an active role in condemning these actions of Israel.” When asked whether India could play mediator in the region given its strong strategic ties with both Iran and Israel, the Iranian Ambassador said his government would “welcome any action to reduce tension and establish peace and stability in the region”.

Israel’s Ambassador Naor Gilon has said Iran’s attacks “cannot go unanswered”. “We have to make it clear to Iran that these are unacceptable, and our capabilities to retaliate are reasonable,” he told various news channels this week.

The Iranian Ambassador also said bilateral cooperation with India over the Chabahar port project, where India operates a terminal, is “going well”, and promised that there would be “good news in this regard in the coming days”. When asked about India’s 2018 decision to cancel import of Iranian oil due to U.S. sanctions, Mr. Elahi said that as an oil exporter, Iran was ready to sell to any country. “If there is a request from the Indian government to buy oil, Iran will definitely welcome it,” he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, built his political career promising security to Israel. He claimed in the past that only he could stand up to the Iranian threat. Yet, the worst attack in Israel’s history, as well as a massive missile and drone strike by Iran breaching its borders took place on his watch. After the October 7 Hamas attack, Mr. Netanyahu vowed to crush Hamas and went for an all-out war on Gaza. Six months later, the war remains unfinished. And after the April 14 attack by Iran, his government as well as the military have promised a forceful response, but the Prime Minister does not have any easy choices before him. 

Until April 14, Israel was acting freely in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, targeting Iranian assets or its proxy networks, including Hamas and Hezbollah. A shadow war has been raging between Israel and Iran for years in West Asia. Iran lost dozens of nuclear scientists and military officers in this shadow war and its response had largely been muted. This emboldened Israeli operations further in its immediate neighbourhood. Israel has carried out more than 400 air strikes against Iran-linked militias in the region. But the April 1 bombing of Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus, in which seven Revolutionary Guard officers were killed, including Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, seemed to have altered Iran’s strategic thinking.

Analysis | By attacking Israel, Iran turns shadow war into direct conflict 

New equilibrium 

By launching a massive direct attack on Israel, Iran seeks to build a new strategic equilibrium. It wants to tell the Israelis that the attacks they were carrying out targeting Iranian interests would no longer be cost-free. This is dangerous gambling as any direct Israeli retaliation would prompt Iran to launch another attack, triggering a cycle of violence or an all-out war.

Israel says it managed to intercept “99%” of the Iranian projectiles. But there is a catch. Israel did not do it alone. The U.S., the U.K., France and Jordan all joined Israel in shooting down Iranian missiles and attack drones. And none of these partners want a regional war with Iran. They have all urged Israel to consider the remarkably high interception rate as a victory and stand down. Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, has publicly urged Israel to show restraint. John Kirby, a spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said Israel would decide whether, when and how it should respond to the Iranian attack and that the U.S. would not be a part of that decision. President Joe Biden told Mr. Netanyahu that the U.S. would not participate in any Israeli counterattack on Iran, according to the White House.

Bibi’s dilemma 

This leaves Mr. Netanyahu in a dilemma. He always wanted to act tough on Iran, but without America’s support, it would be risky to go to war with Iran. Also, despite Israel’s multi-layered defence system, Iranian ballistic missiles still hit an Israeli base and in the event of a full-scale war, both sides can wreak havoc on each other. Mr. Netanyahu also cannot back off. The Iranian attack breached Israel’s sovereignty, though the damage it caused was little. For a country with existential anxiety and whose strategic doctrine is rooted in deterrence and escalation dominance, not responding to a direct attack on its territory would have far-reaching consequences. Iran is also seeking to change the status quo. If Israel does not retaliate and looks weak, an emboldened Iran will pose more challenges to Israel’s future operations in Lebanon and Syria.

Timeline: Iran and Israel’s open warfare after decades of shadow war

So the challenge before Mr. Netanyahu, who is ‘King Bibi’ for his supporters, is to retaliate without escalating. Israeli media have reported that Mr. Netanyahu’s War Cabinet has agreed to respond to Iran’s attack but the time and the scale of the attack is to be decided. According to NBC, Biden administration officials believe Mr. Netanyahu would not hit Iran directly. Instead, he would target Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. But Israel is already attacking Iranian proxies and how would another round of attack in Syria and Lebanon help Israel boost its deterrence against Iran?  

The ball is in Mr. Netanyahu’s court. He has to make one of the several bad choices. He cannot afford to look weak; he cannot completely ignore his allies who are asking him to exercise restraint and he cannot fight a regional war without his allies.

Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at his office.
| Photo Credit: PTI

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called on his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu to exercise restraint and let “calm heads” prevail in the wake of Iran’s missile attacks as his Foreign Secretary David Cameron landed in Tel Aviv for talks on Wednesday.

In a phone call, Mr. Sunak reiterated the U.K.’s “steadfast support” for regional stability and told the Israeli leader that Iran had miscalculated its move, being isolated on the global stage as a result.

Mr. Netanyahu is said to have thanked Britain for its “rapid and robust” support in the face of Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israel on Saturday.

“The Prime Minister [Sunak] said Iran had badly miscalculated and was increasingly isolated on the global stage, with the G7 coordinating a diplomatic response,” Downing Street said in a readout of the call on Tuesday evening.

“He stressed that significant escalation was in no one’s interest and would only deepen insecurity in the Middle East. This was a moment for calm heads to prevail,” the statement said.

On the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, Mr. Sunak told Mr. Netanyahu that he remained gravely concerned about the deepening humanitarian crisis.

“The U.K. wanted to see a massive step change in aid access to flood Gaza with vital supplies, including Israel opening up new aid routes as quickly as possible. The Prime Minister said it was deeply disappointing that Hamas blocked a deal at the weekend that would have saved Palestinian lives and secured the safe release of hostages,” Downing Street added.

The call will form the backdrop for Mr. Cameron’s discussions in Israel, where he is expected to meet Mr. Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials and attempt to talk the country out of retaliating to Iran’s assault.

The visit will include meetings in the occupied West Bank, after which Mr. Cameron will travel to a gathering of Group of Seven (G7) ministers in Italy to discuss further sanctions on Iran.

The U.K. has condemned Iran’s “reckless and dangerous escalation” in the region and called on all sides to show restraint after Tehran’s “barrage of 300 missiles and drones” targeted Israel over the weekend.

India has called for an “immediate de-escalation” of hostilities between Iran and Israel and called for a “return to the path of diplomacy”. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has held phone calls with his counterparts in Iran and Israel, following which Indian officials are expected to be allowed access to its crew on a ship with Israeli links seized by Iranian troops.

Trucks carry the coffins of Revolutionary Guard members killed in an airstrike widely attributed to Israel that destroyed Iran’s Consulate in Syria on Monday, in a funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, Friday, April 5, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Iran on April 6 again threatened retaliation for the deaths of seven Revolutionary Guards in a strike on Damascus, with the Army chief saying his country’s enemies will “regret” the killings.

Tehran has vowed to avenge Monday’s air strike on the Syrian capital it blamed on its arch-enemy Israel, which has not commented.

The attack levelled the Iranian embassy’s consular annex in Damascus, killing seven Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) members including two generals.

Iran’s response “will be carried out at the right time, with the necessary precision and planning, and with maximum damage to the enemy so that they regret their action,” chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri said on Saturday.

He was speaking at a ceremony in the central city of Isfahan to commemorate Mohammad Reza Zahedi, one of the two dead brigadier generals from the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign operations arm.

Gen. Zahedi, 63, was Quds Force commander for the Palestinian Territories, Syria and Lebanon, according to Britain-based war monitor the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

He had held several commands during a career spanning more than 40 years, and was the most senior Iranian soldier killed since a U.S. missile strike at Baghdad airport in 2020 killed Quds Force chief General Qasem Soleimani.

On Saturday, crowds at the gathering in Isfahan chanted “Down with Israel!” and “Down with the United States!”

The Islamic republic’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel “will be punished” for the killings.

Monday’s strike in Damascus took place against the backdrop of the Gaza war which began with Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel which killed 1,170 people, mostly civilians.

Tehran backs Hamas but has denied any direct involvement in the attack which sparked massive Israeli retaliation against the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas-run health ministry in the Palestinian territory said Friday at least 33,091 people have been killed there during nearly six months of war.

Monday’s attack in Damascus, which the Observatory said killed 16 people, was the fifth raid on Syria in a week blamed on Israel.

Tehran does not recognise Israel, and the two countries have fought a shadow war for years.

Iran accuses Israel of having carried out a wave of sabotage attacks and assassinations targeting its nuclear programme.

On Friday, IRGC chief General Hossein Salami warned that Israel “cannot escape the consequences” of the Damascus strike.